Should provision be made for a future rail link to Cardiff Airport?

[WAB]

I suspect Ryanair type operations would do very well from Cardiff, but again there needs to be the will.

But again, why Cardiff over Bristol? And would there be enough demand to fill a plane to the specific destinations?

 

[Envoy]

While I would love for Cardiff to up its game, I am virtually resigned to using LHR for international flights - in which case I would like to see the LHR Western Approach to be resurrected

Try using the Elizabeth Line the short distance to Hayes & Harlington and then take a stopper to Reading before transferring to an express to south Wales. It is cheaper than going via PAD with no time penalty.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Dec 2024 ==

Lots of bold assumptions about the demand there would be at Cardiff. Is there enough demand in South Wales for specific destinations which Bristol can't fulfil?

There’s quite a big population in south Wales so its not just Cardiff. Getting to Bristol Airport is a real pain on inadequate roads and no rail access. At least Cardiff Airport has rail access nearby as the bus link from Rhoose station is only 2 miles on un-congested roads.

To be honest, airport provision in SW Britain is a mess with Bristol Airport going on expanding on a site that is far from ideal. I blame stupid politicians for this mess because they refused to bang their heads together and decide on the best place for one big new airport somewhere near the Severn Bridges and mainline rail routes. They blew Filton and they blew the chance to have Llanwern.

 

[Topological]

But again, why Cardiff over Bristol? And would there be enough demand to fill a plane to the specific destinations?

Getting to Bristol is so annoying that Heathrow looks much more attractive. Plus, Heathrow is Heathrow.

As @Envoy explains, the best option for the whole region was (and is if there is still a site) a combined airport on the M4/M5 interchange (which has the GWML and Bristol-Birmingham close at hand.

By rights, Liverpool should struggle with Manchester on its doorstep, but the Liverpool John Lennon airport is doing well enough. Cardiff and South Wales collectively should have similar opportunities.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Dec 2024 ==

Try using the Elizabeth Line the short distance to Hayes & Harlington and then take a stopper to Reading before transferring to an express to south Wales. It is cheaper than going via PAD with no time penalty.

A standard journey to Bristol Airport and the same journey to Heathrow but staying on the 15:41. Note that this is routing with the HEX and not the Elizabeth Line. This emphasises how competitive the Heathrow journey is (44 minutes longer, but with less changes, less opportunity to be stuck in traffic, and crucially it is Heathrow when you get there)

1. 15:41 Port Talbot Parkway
   
   
   
   GWR towards London Paddington
2. 16:33
   16:41Newport
   (Platform 3)
   
   
   
   GWR towards Trowbridge
   17:15Bristol Temple Meads
3. 
   
   Walk
   0.1 mi (3 minutes)
   
   
4. 17:26Temple Meads Station
   (Platform T6)
   
   
   
   A1 Airport Flyer towards Bristol Airport
   17:56Airport Terminal (Stand 1)
   (Bristol Airport, Bristol BS48 3DY)
   
   
5. • 15:41 Port Talbot Parkway
     
     
     
     GWR towards London Paddington
     
     18:13Paddington
   • 
     
     Walk
     124 yd (2 minutes)
   • 18:25Paddington
     
     
     
     Heathrow Express towards London Heathrow Airport
     18:40Heathrow Terminals 2 & 3
     (Heathrow Airport, Hounslow)

 

[Envoy]

Is it fair to say that South Wales isn't the most affluent UK area so that will limit demand anyway?

Don't think it is all run down ex mining settlements. You can see the more affluent side of south Wales on Escape to the Country - which went out on BBC 1 at 16.30 yesterday (30 December 2024).

Cardiff is seeing a population explosion and prices are relatively high. Monmouthshire is not exactly cheap either being highly desirable. It is the ex mining settlements in south Wales that bring the average price of homes down for the region.

 

[Topological]

Don't think it is all run down ex mining settlements. You can see the more affluent side of south Wales on Escape to the Country - which went out on BBC 1 at 16.30 yesterday (30 December 2024).

Cardiff is seeing a population explosion and prices are relatively high. Monmouthshire is not exactly cheap either being highly desirable. It is the ex mining settlements in south Wales that bring the average price of homes down for the region.

This reminded me of a BBC article from 2020: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51109151

It may be best known for its giant smoking steelworks but Port Talbot proved to be Britain's property hot spot last year, figures show.

The industrial town saw average house prices rise by 7.5% during 2019 - almost five times the national average.

Cheap seafront houses and removing the Severn bridge tolls helped fuel the rise, according to estate agents.

Four Welsh towns made the top 10 while Aberdeen, Witney in Oxfordshire, and Woking in Surrey saw the biggest falls.

Of course the Steelworks has had its' issues of late, but it reminds us that there has been movement into the area. This is of course West of Cardiff Airport.

The below chart shows that 4 of the top 10 in the UK for 2019 were in South Wales (Port Talbot, Cwmbran, Merthyr and Neath)

 

[Caaardiff]

Those signs on the M4 were put up when the motorway was built and at that time, Cardiff Airport was roughly level pegging with Bristol. Coming from the west, those signs should be changed to tell people to leave the M4 at J37 (Pyle) and take the A48 east to the new roundabout on the western end of the Cowbridge by-pass. Then along the B roads via Llandow to the Llantwit Major by-pass and along the coast road to enter the airport from the west. That would skim off the west Wales traffic from the more heavily congested roads coming in from the east via Culverhouse Cross. (Rhodri Morgan cancelled a planned expressway from near Culverhouse Cross to the Airport which would have skirted north Barry).

Although makes most sense and have used that route many times, it'll never happen. In the same way you won't ever see signs from the M5 to Bristol Airport via Barrow Gurney. Signposts will generally be the route with the biggest roads - Motorways and major A roads, which is why unless a link from J34 is sorted, Culverhouse Cross will always be the designated route from the West.

I suspect Ryanair type operations would do very well from Cardiff, but again there needs to be the will.

I suspect Ryanair are Cardiff's last hope. Easyjet are too big at Bristol to dilute to Cardiff. Ryanair are slowly growing again after Covid, now offering 13 flights a week to 5 destinations. There's a lot of speculation that there'll be more, maybe even a based aircraft soon.

Lots of bold assumptions about the demand there would be at Cardiff. Is there enough demand in South Wales for specific destinations which Bristol can't fulfil?

That's the point. Cardiff has dramatically fallen behind and Bristol has grown significantly and Welsh people seems to have just accepted that.
Demand from South Wales is there, Cardiff just hasn't been able to get the Airlines in to prove it. The major players, Easyjet, Ryanair etc are already established at Bristol. Wizz Air could've worked well as they weren't competing with themselves at Bristol, but that went horribly wrong.

Around 2008/2009 Cardiff Airport has previously handled 2m passengers, when Bristol Airport was only at around 5-6m passengers.
The then owners let Cardiff decline to around 800k until the Welsh Government stepped in and bought it in 2013. In 2019 Cardiff was then handling 1.65m passengers and continuing to grow, then Covid hit, and it's now forecast to have just under 900k for 2024. Bristol was just under 9m in 2019 and will top 10m passengers this year.

The regional growth from 7-8m in 2007, to 10m in 2019 and 11m in 2024 shows the demand is there. It's projected that 20% of Bristols 8m passengers in 2016 come from South wales, which by the same estimations for 2024 would put that at around 2m people from South Wales.

Throw in the numbers from South Wales that also use Birmingham, Manchester and London Airports then Cardiff has every chance of topping 2m passengers again, if not more. It just takes the right Airline, and these days there's not many left to chose from because of so much consolidation in the industry.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

I very much doubt it. Cardiff Airport really is rather a strange beast. It always seems to be in the doldrums and in the shadows of its far more successful rival in Bristol which has well over ten times the passenger numbers. Looks like last year Rhoose couldn’t even top one million compared to 9.8m across the channel. That’s certainly not enough to warrant a dedicated rail link.

Yes, I used it last year and I’ve seen larger service stations. Completely empty and only one flight to Amsterdam and one flight to Spain leaving after my 7am Dublin shuttle.

 

[dk1]

Yes, I used it last year and I’ve seen larger service stations. Completely empty and only one flight to Amsterdam and one flight to Spain leaving after my 7am Dublin shuttle.

That just made me chuckle.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

That just made me chuckle.

I think it was memories of how it looked inside that made me think of a service station, a tiny Costa and an even tinier Greggs next to one security belt and some loos!

 

[Caaardiff]

I think it was memories of how it looked inside that made me think of a service station, a tiny Costa and an even tinier Greggs next to one security belt and some loos!

They've just opened a new security area because of the new scanners required in the UK. Actually looks like a proper airport now!

 

[Western 52]

Only 6-10 departures per day from Cardiff Airport. Bristol has more per hour. Fares are much higher from Cardiff for some reason, and many trips need transfers. Unless this greatly improves it won't generate enough demand for a rail link.

 

[MrEwy]

Personally I don’t think it’s worth it, I think Cardiff airport is a dead duck, no airlines are going to make any money flying anywhere from Cardiff, nobody wants to fly from there either unless it’s a local Cessna to Hereford. Money better spent elsewhere

 

[Envoy]

They can't just close Cardiff Airport because it has the British Airways engineering base. Recently BA announced plans to increase the size of the base with a hanger able to take the A350.

Airlines at Bristol think why should we go to Cardiff when we can just get the Welsh to drive over the bridge. TUI, however seem to be the exception and are offering more flights this year from Cardiff - probably noting the demand and lack of competition.

Heathrow has been mentioned and is all well and good for long haul but high landing fees and restricted slots means it will never offer value for money flights.

BA Press Release about Cardiff Airport A350:> https://mediacentre.britishairways....ion-pound-aviation-investment-in-cardiff-base

"The planned work will help increase the airline’s efficiency across maintenance operations as the engineering base will be able to facilitate more aircraft types. Currently, the base can only serve Boeing 777 and 787 aircraft types. This expansion, part of the airline’s £7bn transformation investment, will get underway in 2025 and is expected to be completed by 2026. The project underscores the airline's commitment to the future of its Cardiff-based operations – which employs 480 colleagues, supporting the Welsh economy".

A pity that BA don’t actually have any passenger flights from Cardiff being as they have a base at the airport.

 

[fishwomp]

They can't just close Cardiff Airport because it has the British Airways engineering base. Recently BA announced plans to increase the size of the base with a hanger able to take the A350.

That's a runway it needs, not an *airport*.

Airlines at Bristol think why should we go to Cardiff when we can just get the Welsh to drive over the bridge.

By that logic, why do they allow people from Rhyl to use Manchester and Liverpool? Could they be compelled to travel to Cardiff for flying? Or is there something like a market and personal choice here that actually are doing what is needed?

Bringing nationality into this rather than practicality is plain wrong.

Bristol airport is in the wrong place, but spending money in Cardiff isn't going to develop the right solution for either (South) Wales or South West England.

 

[Caaardiff]

That's a runway it needs, not an *airport*.

By that logic, why do they allow people from Rhyl to use Manchester and Liverpool? Could they be compelled to travel to Cardiff for flying? Or is there something like a market and personal choice here that actually are doing what is needed?

Bringing nationality into this rather than practicality is plain wrong.

Bristol airport is in the wrong place, but spending money in Cardiff isn't going to develop the right solution for either (South) Wales or South West England.

It also needs an ATC tower, airfield operations, airfield maintenance, fire service cover. It's not just a runway.

It is the Airport for South Wales. I don't think anyone will argue about that, but it's also the only commercial airport in Wales, which is why it's often referred to as serving Wales, even if geographically, it's not.

Bristol is in a terrible location, with poor roads and no rail link. It's airfield is space restricted but as they are continuing to grow they are squeezing every last bit of space they can out of it.
It's wanting to increase to 12m and further more, but may come up against a lot of opposition from local groups. Included in that is it's quota of night flights which affects flights between certain times. Not great for many of the based airlines that need to try and squeeze 2-3 return flights a day out of their aircraft. The terminal is starting to show signs of heavy congestion and queues at certain times of the day which may start to put people off.

Cardiff just needs a break from one airline to show some willing and it will attract people back. The issue is there is a much smaller pool of airlines these days. Ask anyone in South Wales if they'd rather fly from Bristol or Cardiff and most will pick Cardiff, as long as they price is right.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Jan 2025 ==

Bristol airport is in the wrong place, but spending money in Cardiff isn't going to develop the right solution for either (South) Wales or South West England.

The current recovery plan involves investment. Up to 2019 there was a fair bit of investment in the terminal, the airfield and trimming of staff costs. And then the airport was continuing to grow. Under the current plan it's also about other revenue streams, not just passengers. Namely private flying and also cargo, of which there is now a widebody cargo flight to China every few days. This investment will help to make it a profit, meaning less reliance on the taxpayer.

 

[Envoy]

Meanwhile ... Bristol Airport has seen much local opposition against further expansion.

Bristol Airport anti-expansion campaigners say 'we are watching you'

'All we can do now is make sure Bristol Airport doesn't flout its planning conditions'

www.bristolpost.co.uk

"Campaigners against Bristol Airport’s expansion greeted passengers arriving for evening flights on the longest day of the year with a mass protest at the entrance to the airport".

 

[RT4038]

Meanwhile ... Bristol Airport has seen much local opposition against further expansion.

Bristol Airport anti-expansion campaigners say 'we are watching you'

'All we can do now is make sure Bristol Airport doesn't flout its planning conditions'

www.bristolpost.co.uk

As, of course, just about every commercial airport in the country has!

 

[Caaardiff]

The only opposition Cardiff Airport has had for expansion/funding is from..... Bristol Airport.

One argument against the expansion of Bristol is the untapped capacity at Cardiff and Exeter Airports that could provide for it's more local catchment. Obviously as Airports are private companies, BRS wants every piece of the pie. If they were public owned Airports then it would make much more sense for Airports to better serve their local areas.

There's core routes that aren't even reaching their potential.
Under Flybe there used to be up to 3 daily flights to Edinburgh. Currently Loganair are barely providing daily flights, and at rubbish times.
Majorca has always been one of the most popular routes from Cardiff, and even though TUI providing 7 weekly flights during summer, there is no low-cost airline. Bmibaby used to fly at least daily, and Vueling 3-4 times a week. By contrast Bristol has 53 flights a week! (11-Ryanair, 21-Easyjet, 7-TUI, 14-Jet2). A fair number of those seats are probably taken by people from South Wales.
Whereas other two core routes, Alicante and Malaga are fairly well served by Vueling and Ryanair with each providing 3 weekly flights to each destination.

 

[Meerkat]

First intervention would be to make Rhoose station look like somewhere you would want to wait whilst wearing your summer holiday gear!
Then improve the bus - use electric fake tram ones and market it as a people mover or something sounding not like a bus, and give it major bus priority.

 

[Topological]

First intervention would be to make Rhoose station look like somewhere you would want to wait whilst wearing your summer holiday gear!
Then improve the bus - use electric fake tram ones and market it as a people mover or something sounding not like a bus, and give it major bus priority.

Maybe get the developers of this business park they are building on the rail link alignment* to pay for it.

I do not think anyone on here is still arguing for a full rail link, but getting some contributions is no bad thing.

While we are at it, is there land to put houses on such that the residents would benefit from the more frequent trains between Bridgend, Rhoose and Cardiff?

 

[Meerkat]

While we are at it, is there land to put houses on such that the residents would benefit from the more frequent trains between Bridgend, Rhoose and Cardiff?

A look at a map suggests that a new station at St Athans could serve an area with space for development?

 

[Envoy]

A look at a map suggests that a new station at St Athans could serve an area with space for development?

Here is the latest news in the press about St.Athan station:>

Work ongoing to bring back railway station to Welsh village

St Athan in the Vale of Glamorgan has been deprived of a railway station for decades

www.walesonline.co.uk

The leader of a Welsh council said her local authority is still working towards bringing a railway station back to a village where people haven't been able to catch a train in decades. Vale of Glamorgan Council's leader, Cllr Lis Burnett, said she hasn't heard anything different from the Department of Transport from when they said they would help fund a feasibility study for a new railway station in St Athan.

I really can’t understand why they are dragging this out as to my mind, it is a no brainer to get on and build it along with parking. This area is poorly served by buses and to get into Cardiff by car is difficult to say the least. The trains would also provide a good link to the west via Bridgend.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Jan 2025 ==

Maybe get the developers of this business park they are building on the rail link alignment* to pay for it.

I do not think anyone on here is still arguing for a full rail link, but getting some contributions is no bad thing.

While we are at it, is there land to put houses on such that the residents would benefit from the more frequent trains between Bridgend, Rhoose and Cardiff?

Be careful about putting new houses near the airport as they will all be out protesting about the noise in the event that we see a major turn around.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Jan 2025 ==

One argument against the expansion of Bristol is the untapped capacity at Cardiff and Exeter Airports that could provide for it's more local catchment. Obviously as Airports are private companies, BRS wants every piece of the pie. If they were public owned Airports then it would make much more sense for Airports to better serve their local areas.

Totally agree and Exeter could have a bus shuttle from a new station on the Honiton line. Exeter is also by an excellent dual highway (A30). It is a long way from Cornwall and even Plymouth up to Bristol so I am sure that they would welcome more flights.

There's core routes that aren't even reaching their potential.
Under Flybe there used to be up to 3 daily flights to Edinburgh. Currently Loganair are barely providing daily flights, and at rubbish times.

Loganair is very expensive so most people who are using their own money in S Wales will go with Easyjet from Bristol to Edinburgh.

Majorca has always been one of the most popular routes from Cardiff, and even though TUI providing 7 weekly flights during summer, there is no low-cost airline. Bmibaby used to fly at least daily, and Vueling 3-4 times a week. By contrast Bristol has 53 flights a week! (11-Ryanair, 21-Easyjet, 7-TUI, 14-Jet2). A fair number of those seats are probably taken by people from South Wales.

The Majorca situation is ridiculous with Bristol having so many flights to this popular destination yet Cardiff only has 7 flights a week during summer provided by TUI who are mainly after the package trade to their hotels.

 

[Topological]

Here is the latest news in the press about St.Athan station:>

Work ongoing to bring back railway station to Welsh village

St Athan in the Vale of Glamorgan has been deprived of a railway station for decades

www.walesonline.co.uk

I really can’t understand why they are dragging this out as to my mind, it is a no brainer to get on and build it along with parking. This area is poorly served by buses and to get into Cardiff by car is difficult to say the least. The trains would also provide a good link to the west via Bridgend.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Jan 2025 ==


Be careful about putting new houses near the airport as they will all be out protesting about the noise in the event that we see a major turn around.

The houses do not necessarily have to be near the airport, the aim is to extract developed contributions to improve the VoG line. Anywhere on the VoG works from that perspective. It helps if the improved VoG provides developers with an extra selling point for their houses too.

I just do not know the area well enough to know where exactly the houses (and ideally some apartment buildings for better density) would go.

 

[Smwrff]

TfW need to increase the frequency on Vale of Glamorgan line to 2tph - maybe with every other line being an express service stopping at say Barry & Cardiff Central only (already 4tph at all other stations). Then increase frequency of bus connection (maybe branded as TfW Air). Thinking about it why not rebranded airport ownership to TfW Air as well???

 

[anthony263]

BA Cityflyer should try running some flights from Cardiff to london city,Glasgow eyc maybe even some European destinations too. Daily flights to the US should be introduced too suspect they could fill a airbus a321 eyc

 

[Smwrff]

I always thought an 'airbridge' to Stansted would work out well - linking to Ryanairs european network . But would need 2 flights a day to make it viable

 

[Harpo]

Swansea Airport would need a very big fix!

As for Cardiff Airport, even when I lived in Cardiff, I flew from Bristol.

 

[Mike Machin]

Bristol will always be the main airport for this area as ut has a much larger catchment area than Cardiff. In 2023, Bristol handled almost ten million passengers compared with 870,000 at Cardiff - the numbers speak for themselves.

It's a huge investment for any airline to fly into any airport and even more to establish a base. Bristol has a route network with direct flights to 117 destinations in 34 countries as well as global through-ticketing connections to a huge global network via Amsterdam and Paris CDG.

With such a huge offering at Bristol, there's simply no market for another major airport in the region and Cardiff airport will always be a sleepy backwater, with Cardiff's main connection with the world being through Bristol.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Jan 2025 ==

I always thought an 'airbridge' to Stansted would work out well - linking to Ryanairs european network . But would need 2 flights a day to make it viable

An excellent idea in theory, but Ryanair (along with most low-cost carriers) is strictly a 'point-to-point' airline with no through ticketing between flights. This keeps overheads lower and avoids problems of late-running or cancelled flights causing potential problems of passengers missing connections. So, if Ryanair were to connect to Stansted, passengers would need to buy completely separate tickets for each lg of their journey, and if any delay resulted in a missed connection they would have to re-book at their own expense.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Jan 2025 ==

BA Cityflyer should try running some flights from Cardiff to london city,Glasgow eyc maybe even some European destinations too. Daily flights to the US should be introduced too suspect they could fill a airbus a321 eyc

All airlines have teams looking at potential routes and revenue streams. If there was even the remotest chance of BA Cityflyer making some profit from flying out of Cardiff they, along with the airlines would be introducing services like a shot. The same for flights to the USA, there just simply isn't the demand. Cardiff fulfils a need as a seasonal 'bucket and spade' airport and a gateway to further afield via Amsterdam. There are seven departures tomorrow, so even an unusually high increase in passenger volumes compared to the national trend will still only result in around a dozen or so departures a day. In contrast, Bristol has 91 departures tomorrow and is the de facto main airport for the region.

 

[fishwomp]

The only opposition Cardiff Airport has had for expansion/funding is from..... Bristol Airport.

One argument against the expansion of Bristol is the untapped capacity at Cardiff and Exeter Airports that could provide for it's more local catchment. Obviously as Airports are private companies, BRS wants every piece of the pie. If they were public owned Airports then it would make much more sense for Airports to better serve their local areas.

If only that were true.. government and local government mitts are all over the airport shareholder lists..

* Cardiff: is a commercial company (Cardiff International Airport Ltd - CIAL ) owned at arm's length from Welsh Government via a holding company (WGC Holdco Ltd). Welsh Government continues to support the Airport to benefit Wales through economic development and tourism.

* Bristol: belongs to Ontario teachers pension fund. Private

* Exeter: belongs to Rigby Group - who also own Coventry, Norwich, Bournemouth airports. Private.

* Leeds-Bradford _was_ council owned, but sold to VCs in 2007 for £150M. Private.

* Birmingham: 49% owned by west-mids councils, other 48% is Ontario teachers and 2.75% is employee share trust

* Manchester: about 65% owned by councils.

So, whilst they will all be 'private limited companies' , they are often significantly publicly owned.

 

[Caaardiff]

If only that were true.. government and local government mitts are all over the airport shareholder lists..

* Cardiff: is a commercial company (Cardiff International Airport Ltd - CIAL ) owned at arm's length from Welsh Government via a holding company (WGC Holdco Ltd). Welsh Government continues to support the Airport to benefit Wales through economic development and tourism.

* Bristol: belongs to Ontario teachers pension fund. Private

* Exeter: belongs to Rigby Group - who also own Coventry, Norwich, Bournemouth airports. Private.

* Leeds-Bradford _was_ council owned, but sold to VCs in 2007 for £150M. Private.

* Birmingham: 49% owned by west-mids councils, other 48% is Ontario teachers and 2.75% is employee share trust

* Manchester: about 65% owned by councils.

So, whilst they will all be 'private limited companies' , they are often significantly publicly owned.

But all operated independently for their own profitability and success, not run based on serving solely the region they belong in.