Should SWR’s class 701 Aventra order be cancelled?'

[Energy]

Isn't it a design/software issue, rather than an assembly line issue anyway?

Software and they just aren't built very well. Supposedly the test drivers have been less than impressed with them.

It’s the different cab that seems to have caused many of the issues with the 701s.

The aventra platform is meant to be modular so bits like the cab can be easily changed. The cab problem was mostly with unions, I think it was also taking attention away from the problems with software and build quality of the 701s.


If they so get cancelled then expect Geoff Marshall's video visiting them at bombardier to dissappear as well, his class 442 video has disappeared...

 

[dgl]

It might only be an assembly sites but how many of the bits are produced here, but wouldn't be if the assembly was done abroad?

Wasn't it a fact that the Siemens Desiro City's had a higher amount of UK made parts than the Aventra, Siemens have a few manufacturing sites in the UK, plus current collection equipment (pantographs, shoe gear) comes from Brecknell Willis in Chard

 

[Domh245]

That's totally unrealistic - do you not remember the fuss about Siemens getting Thameslink! It might only be an assembly sites but how many of the bits are produced here, but wouldn't be if the assembly was done abroad?

For the Thameslink project there were a fair few components that were UK produced (warning - big image) & shipped to germany for assembly. This concern is also partially nullified by the new Goole factory - they wouldn't fulfil the entire order there but (like CAF with the northern Civity order) a few token units can be completed there towards the end of the run

And the Siemens product doesn't match the spec.

The spec specifically written around huge crush loads around clapham junction? The spec that quite possibly isn't hugely relevant post-March 2020?

 

[Mikey C]

Software and they just aren't built very well. Supposedly the test drivers have been less than impressed with them.


The aventra platform is meant to be modular so bits like the cab can be easily changed. The cab problem was mostly with unions, I think it was also taking attention away from the problems with software and build quality of the 701s.


If they so get cancelled then expect Geoff Marshall's video visiting them at bombardier to dissappear as well, his class 442 video has disappeared...

Why would the software and build quality be causing issues on the 701s, when the 710s and 345s are already in service and working ok? That's what's confusing about them, if the cab is the only major change

As a passenger, the 345s and 710s seems decent enough.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

gives the opportunity to change the quantity of units built to match the new realities of passenger numbers.

Considering an EMU should last 30-40 years, I refuse to believe that passenger numbers will not have returned to 2019 levels by at least 2030.

Personally, I would follow this route: bin Alstom and buy from Siemens instead as the lowest risk alternative.

As long as Alstom refund the order so that the taxpayer isn't losing more money, but then even so, we then have three years approximately of reduced timetables and short and knackered trains while we wait for those new trains to come, and then it'll be painfully ironic if the Siemens trains then have issues.

I wonder if the government could create an electrification project that could use the 701's.
Then Alstom have got the time to get them right and Siemens units can be ordered for SWR to replace them.

Again, can SWR last until 2025 with the ever dying Metro fleet it has? I cannot stress enough as a daily user of the PDL, whether you believe passenger loadings to be affected, they are definitely slowly returning and considering a lot of 12 cars are packed NOW, they'll be especially bad soon. If you keep the 458s on Metro duties, the PDL would usually be fine without them as they've coped so far, but now the 450s are being pinched to substitute for the ever dying 455s. If a decision isn't made within a month, the 456s will be history, and the twelve 707s will go to SouthEastern in June. As they should too. I see no reason why SE customers should be forfeited their new trains just because SWR regret their decision of dumping them.

There's no guarantee at all the 701s will be in any serviceable state in a year. OBB have got a lead time of 1 year and 4 months on the Desiro ML units they ordered to replace the Talent 3s, and by doing so they've got a new fleet of trains entering service at the same time as previously but of much better quality.

Of note is that the Desiro ML units OBB ordered to replace the Talent 3s are not quite to the specification set out for the Vorarlberg and Tyrol routes that the Talent 3s had to stick to. On the same basis an order to replace the 701s would likely not need to strictly stick to the SWR Metro spec either.

The first 701s are already nearly 3 years old, there's a decent chance they could be nearing 5 years old before they're anywhere near serviceable. You can't call that new.

Again, proving my point that you cannot find any other example of such a situation beyond ÖBB, and therefore proving my other point that such a situation is not common.

If it does take another couple of years then can you really call a train which was built 3 or 4 years ago (but hasn't turned a wheel in revenue earning service) new?

Well, it's unused, and compared to the 80s 455s, yes they are new. For goodness sake, even Southeastern are going round calling their 707s new, and those have been in service with SWR for approaching five years.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

If they so get cancelled then expect Geoff Marshall's video visiting them at bombardier to dissappear as well, his class 442 video has disappeared...

Whatever a YouTuber with limited technical knowledge of trains has to say about the 701s is quite frankly, pie in the sky, nice as the guy is.

 

[Meerkat]

The spec specifically written around huge crush loads around clapham junction? The spec that quite possibly isn't hugely relevant post-March 2020?

As trains can't be lengthened it would be rather bold to assume that it wont become revelant in the 30 year life of the trains.
And having standing areas with no roof handrails doesn't seem wise anyway

 

[Energy]

Whatever a YouTuber with limited technical knowledge of trains has to say about the 701s is quite frankly, pie in the sky, nice as the guy is.

Agreed. Just thought it was interesting his 442 video disappeared. Could just be because its out of date and not SWR asking him to take it down though I think the second one isn't unlikely.

As trains can't be lengthened

Err pendolinos?

 

[dgl]

Considering an EMU should last 30-40 years, I refuse to believe that passenger numbers will not have returned to 2019 levels by at least 2030.

As long as Alstom refund the order so that the taxpayer isn't losing more money, but then even so, we then have three years approximately of reduced timetables and short and knackered trains while we wait for those new trains to come, and then it'll be painfully ironic if the Siemens trains then have issues.

Again, can SWR last until 2025 with the ever dying Metro fleet it has? I cannot stress enough as a daily user of the PDL, whether you believe passenger loadings to be affected, they are definitely slowly returning and considering a lot of 12 cars are packed NOW, they'll be especially bad soon. If you keep the 458s on Metro duties, the PDL would usually be fine without them as they've coped so far, but now the 450s are being pinched to substitute for the ever dying 455s. If a decision isn't made within a month, the 456s will be history, and the twelve 707s will go to SouthEastern in June. As they should too. I see no reason why SE customers should be forfeited their new trains just because SWR regret their decision of dumping them.

Yes I understand that not having the 701's will cause massive issues, the question is wheather or not there is any other stock that could be used in the meantine if necessary.

I suppose one issue is that other frachises that might be releasing stock also have Aventras on order as replacements, so they probably won't be releasing any suitable stock for a while.

 

[43096]

That's totally unrealistic - do you not remember the fuss about Siemens getting Thameslink! It might only be an assembly sites but how many of the bits are produced here, but wouldn't be if the assembly was done abroad?

It was all a load of hot air and blew over in no time. The high value stuff (power equipment) is built elsewhere regardless of who you buy from. For Bombardier it used to come from Sweden. As a point of history, as a country we'd have been better backing Washwood Heath as the traction system on the Junipers was from Preston.

Every new order gives this certainty, which almost always turns out to be less than certain. And the Siemens product doesn't match the spec.

The spec is now irrelevant given the huge changes in travel post pandemic. In any case, specs can be changed.

So the first step in playing hardball would be to reduce the order of 701s if they arent really needed

If they stick with the Aventras, that is a necessary step.

 

[DanNCL]

As long as Alstom refund the order so that the taxpayer isn't losing more money, but then even so, we then have three years approximately of reduced timetables and short and knackered trains while we wait for those new trains to come, and then it'll be painfully ironic if the Siemens trains then have issues.

Alstom don't recieve a penny until the trains are delivered in an acceptable condition. If the order is cancelled the money is simply never handed to Alstom in the first place.

Again, can SWR last until 2025 with the ever dying Metro fleet it has?

Yes they can. Prior to 2013 SWT managed fine with just 450s and 455s working the Metro routes.

I cannot stress enough as a daily user of the PDL, whether you believe passenger loadings to be affected, they are definitely slowly returning and considering a lot of 12 cars are packed NOW, they'll be especially bad soon. If you keep the 458s on Metro duties, the PDL would usually be fine without them as they've coped so far, but now the 450s are being pinched to substitute for the ever dying 455s. If a decision isn't made within a month, the 456s will be history, and the twelve 707s will go to SouthEastern in June. As they should too. I see no reason why SE customers should be forfeited their new trains just because SWR regret their decision of dumping them.

The Portsmouth Direct, Alton and Basingstoke routes are not packed with 12 car formations, unless your idea of "packed" is simply more than half of the seats in a carriage being taken. 8 car formations are sufficient in the current times for those routes.

As for the Southeastern point, Southeastern customers aren't forfeiting anything they're simply having to plod along with 465s a bit longer just like those on SWR are having to plod along with 455s a bit longer. It's also August, not June, and there's a possibility that the date could be further extended.

Again, proving my point that you cannot find any other example of such a situation beyond ÖBB, and therefore proving my other point that such a situation is not common.

I keep referring to the OBB example as it's so similar to the SWR situation, right up to the point of Bombardier/Alstom being the problem! There are other examples of trains delivered on a timescale of under two years, which includes:
387/1s - first unit in service 1 year and 5 months after contracts were signed
387/2s - first unit in service 1 year and 3 months after contracts were signed
350/2s - first unit in service 1 year and 4 months after contracts were signed
MAV Stadler Flirt (3rd order) - first unit delivered just 2 months after contracts were signed (I'm guessing because of the quickness that these units had already been built speculatively by Stadler)
NS Stadler Flirt - first unit delivered 1 year and 8 months after contracts were signed
GySEV Stadler Flirt (3rd order) - first unit delivered 1 year and 2 months after contracts were signed
Westbahn Stadler Kiss (3rd order) - first unit delivered 1 year and 4 months after contracts were signed
Mittelrheinbahn Desiro ML - first unit in service 1 year and 9 months after contracts were signed. Of note is that these units were a (then) brand new design rather than an existing mass produced product.

So it's not just OBB who've been able to buy units on a lead time of under 2 years, there are other examples including 3 from the UK.

As trains can't be lengthened it would be rather bold to assume that it wont become revelant in the 30 year life of the trains.

Err pendolinos?

I think he was referring to the fact that 10x20m is the longest formation possible on the routes the 701s are intended for.

Yes I understand that not having the 701's will cause massive issues, the question is wheather or not there is any other stock that could be used in the meantine if necessary.

I suppose one issue is that other frachises that might be releasing stock also have Aventras on order as replacements, so they probably won't be releasing any suitable stock for a while.

There is suitable stock - the 455s they already have. Far from ideal but they can last a few more years if SWR actually bother to do required exams rather than stopping them when they run out of miles before exam.

The only way any stock not already with SWR could have been used as stopgaps was ultimately made impossible when 365s starting going for scrap - 365s on GN routes would have freed up 387s to run on Southern routes, freeing up some of those 455s to temporarily move to SWR.

 

[43096]

Considering an EMU should last 30-40 years, I refuse to believe that passenger numbers will not have returned to 2019 levels by at least 2030.

In case you hadn't noticed the railway is broke. By all means put options in the contract for more units that can be called off if they're needed, but building now for unknown growth in 8 years is just a gamble that can't be afforded.

As long as Alstom refund the order so that the taxpayer isn't losing more money, but then even so, we then have three years approximately of reduced timetables and short and knackered trains while we wait for those new trains to come, and then it'll be painfully ironic if the Siemens trains then have issues.

Alstom have presumably not been paid for the units - one of the reasons Bombardier Transportation was taken over was because of its poor cashflow as a result of customers not accepting (and paying for) new trains. It shouldn't take 3 years to get new units in traffic.

Again, can SWR last until 2025 with the ever dying Metro fleet it has? I cannot stress enough as a daily user of the PDL, whether you believe passenger loadings to be affected, they are definitely slowly returning and considering a lot of 12 cars are packed NOW, they'll be especially bad soon. If you keep the 458s on Metro duties, the PDL would usually be fine without them as they've coped so far, but now the 450s are being pinched to substitute for the ever dying 455s. If a decision isn't made within a month, the 456s will be history, and the twelve 707s will go to SouthEastern in June. As they should too. I see no reason why SE customers should be forfeited their new trains just because SWR regret their decision of dumping them.

The 707s are only going to SouthEastern for political reasons: the DfT wanting to not lose face from having perfectly good almost new trains parked up. South Eastern don't really need them: if SWR's need is greater they should come back.

I'm not really understanding the issue with the 455s: they had major investment in new traction systems not long ago. The only reason the fleet is dying is because SWR hasn't maintained them.

Daily user of the PDL, eh? Hope you're not one of the whinging Portsmouth mob! Simple solution, go ahead with the 458 project as planned and swap the 458s to the PDL with the 450s going to Reading (which doesn't need 10-car currently). There's also the option to keep the eight surplus 458s on lease.

Whatever a YouTuber with limited technical knowledge of trains has to say about the 701s is quite frankly, pie in the sky, nice as the guy is.

Unlike people with limited technical knowledge on a web forum?

 

[MatthewRead]

This is exactly why the 442's should never have been withdrawn in the first place I kept telling Oveline House workers this and they kept sending me horrid emoji's that look like this I always believed the 442 withdrawal was a mistake but no one would listen to me.

 

[fgwrich]

In case you hadn't noticed the railway is broke. By all means put options in the contract for more units that can be called off if they're needed, but building now for unknown growth in 8 years is just a gamble that can't be afforded.

Alstom have presumably not been paid for the units - one of the reasons Bombardier Transportation was taken over was because of its poor cashflow as a result of customers not accepting (and paying for) new trains. It shouldn't take 3 years to get new units in traffic.


The 707s are only going to SouthEastern for political reasons: the DfT wanting to not lose face from having perfectly good almost new trains parked up. South Eastern don't really need them: if SWR's need is greater they should come back.

I'm not really understanding the issue with the 455s: they had major investment in new traction systems not long ago. The only reason the fleet is dying is because SWR hasn't maintained them.

Daily user of the PDL, eh? Hope you're not one of the whinging Portsmouth mob! Simple solution, go ahead with the 458 project as planned and swap the 458s to the PDL with the 450s going to Reading (which doesn't need 10-car currently). There's also the option to keep the eight surplus 458s on lease.

Unlike people with limited technical knowledge on a web forum?

Having used a few 458s slipping and sliding along the Reading line on the weekend, good luck to the drivers and staff working them up and down the PDL. I really do wish they'd been binned off.

As this is the speculation area of the forum, I still wonder how long it would actually take Siemens to rebuild a soon to be going spare 350/2 into a DC capable unit. Equally, how long it would take Siemens to supply a batch of new 707s, vs Alstom actually managing to get a handover capable unit. But both of these would require First Group to repair it's relationship with Siemens, money / investment and engineering.

 

[D365]

Wasn't it a fact that the Siemens Desiro City's had a higher amount of UK made parts than the Aventra, Siemens have a few manufacturing sites in the UK, plus current collection equipment (pantographs, shoe gear) comes from Brecknell Willis in Chard

I don’t think there’s any British mainline electric train that hasn’t been supplied by BW in the last 10-25 years.

This is exactly why the 442's should never have been withdrawn in the first place I kept telling Oveline House workers this and they kept sending me horrid emoji's that look like this I always believed the 442 withdrawal was a mistake but no one would listen to me.

I have no clue how the 442s have anything to do with ”metro” trains.

 

[DanNCL]

If 450 availability is an issue they could temporarily put a 158 back on the Lymington branch to free up an extra unit. Far from ideal being a DMU on an electrified line but it would help the rolling stock situation slightly.

I don’t think there’s any British mainline electric train that hasn’t been supplied by BW in the last 10-25 years.

Only ones I can think of are those on HS1 - the 395s have a Japanese pantograph, the 373s a French one (they do also have Brecknell Willis pantographs, but only for DC wires) and the 374s a German one.

Excluding those three examples, the last UK 25kV stock not to have Brecknell Willis pantographs will have been 319s.

I have no clue how the 442s have anything to do with ”metro” trains.

I think the idea was that the 442s would have freed up more 450s to work inner suburban routes.

 

[pompeyfan]

Having used a few 458s slipping and sliding along the Reading line on the weekend, good luck to the drivers and staff working them up and down the PDL. I really do wish they'd been binned off.

As this is the speculation area of the forum, I still wonder how long it would actually take Siemens to rebuild a soon to be going spare 350/2 into a DC capable unit. Equally, how long it would take Siemens to supply a batch of new 707s, vs Alstom actually managing to get a handover capable unit. But both of these would require First Group to repair it's relationship with Siemens, money / investment and engineering.

Got to agree with the 350/2 point. I know the same old arguments will come around “Northam are full” well base them at Bournemouth instead of the 458s / 442s… “it’s not straight forward to make them DC” spares are still being made for the 450s and 444s, so the parts are still available. “The cab dash will need rebuilding and they’ll need a TMS patch” still less work than refurbing the 458s, and look at the work that started on the 442s!

 

[AlexNL]

Since this is the speculative discussions forum... there's the possibility of moving around some Electrostars.

The 379s are due to leave Greater Anglia shortly, which have nowhere to go but in storage. Move those to Great Northern, so their 387/1s can move to SWR. GN don't need the DC capability of 387/1s at all, but SWR do.

This should alleviate the rolling stock pressure, either until the 701s get accepted by SWR... or binned/replaced altogether.

 

[Goldfish62]

Since this is the speculative discussions forum... there's the possibility of moving around some Electrostars.

The 379s are due to leave Greater Anglia shortly, which have nowhere to go but in storage. Move those to Great Northern, so their 387/1s can move to SWR. GN don't need the DC capability of 387/1s at all, but SWR do.

This should alleviate the rolling stock pressure, either until the 701s get accepted by SWR... or binned/replaced altogether.

Or.... as it's rumoured in some circles that the 387/1s are going to Southern, they can displace 455s to SWR. While some mods have made them not identical to the pre-retractioned SWR 455s I'm sure they would be easier to assimilate into the fleet than Electrostars, which SWR have no experience of.

 

[3rd rail land]

Or.... as it's rumoured in some circles that the 387/1s are going to Southern, they can displace 455s to SWR. While some mods have made them not identical to the pre-retractioned SWR 455s I'm sure they would be easier to assimilate into the fleet than Electrostars, which SWR have no experience of.

What condition are the Southern 455s in? Presumably it would be a stop gap measure whilst either the 701s are finally brought into service or the order is cancelled and Siemens get tasked with building some Desiro City units for SWR.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

If 450 availability is an issue they could temporarily put a 158 back on the Lymington branch to free up an extra unit. Far from ideal being a DMU on an electrified line but it would help the rolling stock situation slightly.

Im not sure that would really help. Short form a diesel working to replace an EMU and re-train a load of Bournemouth crews on diesels. You might as well just short form an EMU working to keep a 450 on the branch.

 

[DanNCL]

Im not sure that would really help. Short form a diesel working to replace an EMU and re-train a load of Bournemouth crews on diesels. You might as well just short form an EMU working to keep a 450 on the branch.

You wouldn’t need to short form any diesel services. Surely the Bristol services being cut will have left at least one unit spare.

Good point about the Bournemouth crews though, I hadn’t realised they no longer signed 158s.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

You wouldn’t need to short form any diesel services. Surely the Bristol services being cut will have left at least one unit spare.

The Bristol service withdrawals have in part helped cover for the loss of the 159 unit last autumn and they didn’t tie up a unit all day anyway, the previous formations being retained East of Salisbury so hasn’t actually saved a whole diagram.

 

[Goldfish62]

What condition are the Southern 455s in?

Well, they're in daily use so that's surely all we need to know!

 

[swt_passenger]

This is exactly why the 442's should never have been withdrawn in the first place I kept telling Oveline House workers this and they kept sending me horrid emoji's that look like this I always believed the 442 withdrawal was a mistake but no one would listen to me.

You have no responsibility for decision making at all, so your opinion doesn’t really matter, does it.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

This is exactly why the 442's should never have been withdrawn in the first place I kept telling Oveline House workers this and they kept sending me horrid emoji's that look like this I always believed the 442 withdrawal was a mistake but no one would listen to me.

I can’t even tell if this is a joke or not, hoping so, or else I pity you for thinking what one single person goes around saying will ever make a difference.

Im not sure that would really help. Short form a diesel working to replace an EMU and re-train a load of Bournemouth crews on diesels. You might as well just short form an EMU working to keep a 450 on the branch.

They’re running an hourly service from Waterloo to Salisbury and a two hourly service from Salisbury to Exeter. They used to, between 2017 and 2019, run an hourly Waterloo to Exeter service and an hourly Waterloo to Yeovil Pen Mill service, alternating between via Gillingham or Frome. There’ll definitely be some spare, yet it only frees up one 450 anyway which isn’t worth the hassle.

 

[Goldfish62]

I'm not really understanding the issue with the 455s: they had major investment in new traction systems not long ago. The only reason the fleet is dying is because SWR hasn't maintained them.

Considering that SWR has won the Modern Railways Golden Spanner award for the 455 being the most reliable ex BR EMU (with Class 456 coming 2nd) I would suggest that they are in fact maintaining them.

Daily user of the PDL, eh? Hope you're not one of the whinging Portsmouth mob! Simple solution, go ahead with the 458 project as planned and swap the 458s to the PDL with the 450s going to Reading (which doesn't need 10-car currently). There's also the option to keep the eight surplus 458s on lease.

Agreed. They can go over to the PDL right now as far as I'm concerned!

 

[HamworthyGoods]

They’re running an hourly service from Waterloo to Salisbury and a two hourly service from Salisbury to Exeter. They used to, between 2017 and 2019, run an hourly Waterloo to Exeter service and an hourly Waterloo to Yeovil Pen Mill service, alternating between via Gillingham or Frome. There’ll definitely be some spare, yet it only frees up one 450 anyway which isn’t worth the hassle.

This is only a very temporary timetable which also frees up huge numbers of 450s due to mainline reductions.

I presume the discussions were about the base timetable which is far more of a full service.

 

[Jacob Porrett]

But you have the ageing, clapped out 455’s that are low on miles and 707’s going to SE

12 of the 707s with SWR are staying with SWR for now.

This is only a very temporary timetable which also frees up huge numbers of 450s due to mainline reductions.

I presume the discussions were about the base timetable which is far more of a full service.

450s were running 12 car but that is no longer needed because of covid and reduced timetable.