Should we go back into lockdown at this point?

[Andyh82]

I've just done a 4 hour drive and was listening to LBC for all of it, and the overwhelming opinion of callers was *against* a lockdown. I think there was one in that time who supported one. The prevailing view was that they work but that the economic and mental health issues caused by one would outweigh the benefit.

With regard to a full lockdown that is where I am tending, to be honest, though I don't strongly oppose a "lockdown lite", i.e. extending the measures applying in Newcastle etc to the whole of England for a shortish period.

It was Professor Van Tam who said something like ‘don’t rip the pants out of it’ or something, and that’s what I’d go with.

Basically people can still do stuff, just much less than normal. All this scenes of people on a full night out partying like it’s New Years Eve just show people aren’t taking it seriously.

 

[hwl]

Covid prompts a response from the immune system, that much is true. However, I hadn't realised that Covid antibodies confer immunity. So you're saying that if you have had it, then we almost certainly have immunity from that strain?

Best not bother with the vaccine then.

Were we to have had a flu epidemic, rather than a novel coronavirus one, we might have been in a better place with the stockpile of PPE and drugs that were secreted in warehouses around the UK for the eventuality.

The T cell response seems to happen in more people than an antibody one.

Flu is less infectious and has a lower R0 than Covid, the early government thinking this was similar enough to flu was an early "oops", If it had been a new flu were would have been pretty well prepared.

 

[trebor79]

I think the keyword is engineered.

Covid prompts a response from the immune system, that much is true. However, I hadn't realised that Covid antibodies confer immunity. So you're saying that if you have had it, then we almost certainly have immunity from that strain?

Best not bother with the vaccine then.

I'm wary about engaging further as it's not clear if you are uninformed on the subject or just trolling.
The point of a vaccine (for any disease) is that it prevent people who aren't already immune from getting ill from the disease and ending up either dead or with long term health consequences.
So yes, if you've had it the vaccine question is moot for you as an individual.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

There was a quite lengthy report about the protest on the BBC News at 22.00 last night ( BBC 1 ).

I meant the BBC News website - I don't watch TV, haven't for several years.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I'm wary about engaging further as it's not clear if you are uninformed on the subject or just trolling.
The point of a vaccine (for any disease) is that it prevent people who aren't already immune from getting ill from the disease and ending up either dead or with long term health consequences.
So yes, if you've had it the vaccine question is moot for you as an individual.

I assure you, I don't troll.

However, I was under the impression, and I confess my ignorance, that there was no evidence one way or another that having had Covid gave you immunity. Therefore, creating a vaccine would be the means of creating that "herd immunity".

The T cell response seems to happen in more people than an antibody one.

Flu is less infectious and has a lower R0 than Covid, the early government thinking this was similar enough to flu was an early "oops", If it had been a new flu were would have been pretty well prepared.

That makes sense. I'm prepared to forgive the government thinking on that one and, in a previous life, saw the preparations first hand. I'd also say that the testing operation is actually better than the press believe but that government "messaging" has created unrealistic expectations.

 

[trebor79]

I assure you, I don't troll.

However, I was under the impression, and I confess my ignorance, that there was no evidence one way or another that having had Covid gave you immunity. Therefore, creating a vaccine would be the means of creating that "herd immunity".

No, vaccination only works if the pathogen itself can create a long lived immune response.
Incidentally, coronaviruses appear to be very difficult to vaccinate against. The political classes belief that one is just a few months away needs to be treated with very healthy scepticism.

 

[NorthOxonian]

No, vaccination only works if the pathogen itself can create a long lived immune response.
Incidentally, coronaviruses appear to be very difficult to vaccinate against. The political classes belief that one is just a few months away needs to be treated with very healthy scepticism.

Though it seems like multiple of the current vaccines are effective, and current trials are mainly to determine whether there are any side effects. It's certainly reasonable to think we could have an effective vaccine reasonably soon. How soon is another question, and of course vaccines must be distributed (which is likely to be a major stumbling block - don't expect the government to handle that with any degree of competence). But I am reasonably confident a vaccine will exist, in some form or another.

This is of course key to any lockdown argument. If a vaccine is impossible (or several years away), then restrictions until a vaccine are absolutely unreasonable (though I'm sure Hancock would love to try). If a vaccine really is months away though, then we can probably tough it out as an economy/society until then. It might not be the ideal course of action, but it would one we could plausibly go down.

 

[Huntergreed]

Nicola Sturgeon again emphasising today in her briefing that we must continue to suppress this virus, and that she will not even consider pursuing a strategy of allowing it to spread through the population (ie the herd immunity strategy, as it will lead to people dying) and if that means another lockdown, so be it.

I profoundly disagree with her views and fear another lockdown may very well be on the way soon.

 

[DB]

Nicola Sturgeon again emphasising today in her briefing that we must continue to suppress this virus, and that she will not even consider pursuing a strategy of allowing it to spread through the population (ie the herd immunity strategy, as it will lead to people dying) and if that means another lockdown, so be it.

I profoundly disagree with her views and fear another lockdown may very well be on the way soon.

She needs to explan what her exit strategy is (hard to see one other than 'hope for a vaccine'). Of course the media probably won't ask this though...

 

[Scotrail12]

Nicola Sturgeon again emphasising today in her briefing that we must continue to suppress this virus, and that she will not even consider pursuing a strategy of allowing it to spread through the population (ie the herd immunity strategy, as it will lead to people dying) and if that means another lockdown, so be it.

I profoundly disagree with her views and fear another lockdown may very well be on the way soon.

She can shove her lockdown where the sun don't shine. I'm not following it this time, simple as.

 

[Huntergreed]

She needs to explan what her exit strategy is (hard to see one other than 'hope for a vaccine'). Of course the media probably won't ask this though...

She's maintained for ages it's elimination, but I think that's unviable (in fact far more so than herd immunity)

 

[DB]

She's maintained for ages it's elimination, but I think that's unviable (in fact far more so than herd immunity)

We really need the media to get thier act together here - they should be asking her to explain why it is viable given that it's never been done before, and there is no reason to assume it will work (until this year, anyone suggesting this strategy would have been told not to be ridiculous).

 

[Tomp94]

Out of curiosity I have just looked at some death stats from the spreadsheet provided by the NHS for hospitals in England.
In my eyes, this argues against a lockdown, and for less restrictions.

Since the beginning of June, just 5 people have died from or of covid in my NHS trust (western sussex) since early June
Since the end of July, around 30 people aged 50 or under have died from or of covid in a hospital in England.

Pathetically low numbers.

I'm all for a free press and media, but their disgusting doom and gloom mongering and lack of any actual investigative journalism, aside spouting hypotheticals from government advisors, and towing the government line, needs to be stopped!

 

[DB]

Since the beginning of June, just 5 people have died from or of covid in my NHS trust (western sussex) since early June
Since the end of July, around 30 people aged 50 or under have died from or of covid in a hospital in England.

And I would suspect that most/all of them had some other serious health condition too.

 

[Tomp94]

And I would suspect that most/all of them had some other serious health condition too.

Yup.
Time to end these silly restrictions on our lives, protect the most venerable, and let the rest get on with life!

 

[greyman42]

GMB had a poll this morning on whether we should go back into lockdown. The result was 70-30 against. This surprised me as viewers of this programme have been in favour of a return to lockdown in the recent past. Perhaps the threat of redundancy is focussing peoples minds.

 

[317666]

Out of curiosity I have just looked at some death stats from the spreadsheet provided by the NHS for hospitals in England.
In my eyes, this argues against a lockdown, and for less restrictions.

Since the beginning of June, just 5 people have died from or of covid in my NHS trust (western sussex) since early June
Since the end of July, around 30 people aged 50 or under have died from or of covid in a hospital in England.

Pathetically low numbers.

I'm all for a free press and media, but their disgusting doom and gloom mongering and lack of any actual investigative journalism, aside spouting hypotheticals from government advisors, and towing the government line, needs to be stopped!

I'm in East Cambridgeshire. According to the 'Covid in my area' tracker on BBC News when I checked it yesterday, the number of cases this week has doubled compared to last week - from 1 to 2! Like many here, I'm against a second lockdown, as I don't feel that the negative effects on the economy, people's livelihoods and mental health would be worth it, particularly as there's no real exit strategy so it could drag on for months (again!).

 

[bramling]

GMB had a poll this morning on whether we should go back into lockdown. The result was 70-30 against. This surprised me as viewers of this programme have been in favour of a return to lockdown in the recent past. Perhaps the threat of redundancy is focussing peoples minds.

There is definitely a sense that some people are waking up to this - or perhaps were bothered about it before but felt awkward saying it out loud for fear of being shot down.

There’s certainly a role for the government and media to be honest with people - there are big economic and wellbeing consequences from lockdowns, and we can’t keep doing it to exert a “control” over “the virus” that we essentially don’t have.

Personally the *only* way I think a repeat lockdown could begin to be justified is if an effective vaccine was guaranteed to be forthcoming within a defined period. In the absence of that I can’t see what it would achieve apart from kicking the can down the road.

 

[adc82140]

The Covid map linked below is a good indicator of how things are locally, far more useful than the daily figures:

ArcGIS Web Application

www.arcgis.com

For the benefit of those using text readers, the map linked shows the country carved up into areas of population circa 7,400. Cases over the last 7 days are aggregated, and the areas are coloured in accordingly. It is evident that most of the southern half of England has very few cases, and this is still a localised issue in Birmingham, the North West and the North East.

I've been watching it for a week or so, and cases in the South East, South West and most of London have actually been falling (what on earth is Sadiq Khan on about?)

 

[duncanp]

I've been watching it for a week or so, and cases in the South East, South West and most of London have actually been falling (what on earth is Sadiq Khan on about?)

Indeed, for the last complete week for which figures are available, 16 out the 32 London Boroughs saw their infection rate fall.

But that narrative doesn't the locktivists and coronaphobes, who are led by Mr Khant.

And across England as a whole, the number of local authorities reporting an infection rate increase is falling week on week, which suggests that the effect of the "rule of six" is beginning to work.

But you have to give time for changes in the rules to show up in the figures, otherwise there is a self fulfilling prophecy, ie.

• Most transmission of the virus is taking place within private homes, so let's ban people from meeting up in private homes whilst keeping pubs open.
• Two weeks later - most transmission of the virus is taking place within the pubs, so let's close the pubs
• Two weeks later - ...........lets close gyms, swimming pools and places of worship
• Two weeks later - ...........essential travel only on public transport

And we end up with "lockdown creep".

And I wish I had £1 for every time I have seen the phrase tipping point, Sadiq Khan warns or Nicola Sturgeon warns in the papers and online over the past few days.

 

[big_rig]

The Covid map linked below is a good indicator of how things are locally, far more useful than the daily figures:

ArcGIS Web Application

www.arcgis.com

For the benefit of those using text readers, the map linked shows the country carved up into areas of population circa 7,400. Cases over the last 7 days are aggregated, and the areas are coloured in accordingly. It is evident that most of the southern half of England has very few cases, and this is still a localised issue in Birmingham, the North West and the North East.

I've been watching it for a week or so, and cases in the South East, South West and most of London have actually been falling (what on earth is Sadiq Khan on about?)

This is a great little site. You can also go to the website below, scroll to 'cases by local area' then 'download card data' to get it in spreadsheet form, going back to the start of the pandemic. I could draw a line around my flat in London which has a population of 100,000 which had 0-2 cases each week for over three months! This was also when the Mayor was ramping up his messages to wear your mask to protect others, and they will wear theirs to protect you, and I was queueing outside for ages to go into the supermarket lest there be too many people in there and we all spread it, when literally nobody in the catchment area had recorded a positive test for months

Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

 

[hwl]

The Covid map linked below is a good indicator of how things are locally, far more useful than the daily figures:

ArcGIS Web Application

www.arcgis.com

For the benefit of those using text readers, the map linked shows the country carved up into areas of population circa 7,400. Cases over the last 7 days are aggregated, and the areas are coloured in accordingly. It is evident that most of the southern half of England has very few cases, and this is still a localised issue in Birmingham, the North West and the North East.

I've been watching it for a week or so, and cases in the South East, South West and most of London have actually been falling (what on earth is Sadiq Khan on about?)

Test and Trace have been prioritising hot spot areas for testing so it has been quite hard to book a test in London (and other less affected area too) and the number of tests there has been falling hence they have presumably looked at the number of tests done vs total demand for tests.

The testing stats assume a functional test and trace system that can cope, which is no longer the case....
Hence you have to look beyond +ve test numbers in a area no it is no longer simple.

 

[Richard Scott]

Nicola Sturgeon again emphasising today in her briefing that we must continue to suppress this virus, and that she will not even consider pursuing a strategy of allowing it to spread through the population (ie the herd immunity strategy, as it will lead to people dying) and if that means another lockdown, so be it.

I profoundly disagree with her views and fear another lockdown may very well be on the way soon.

She's still stuck in her one horse race and her blinkers are firmly on. Obviously no other issues at all to worry about?!

And I wish I had £1 for every time I have seen the phrase tipping point, Sadiq Khan warns or Nicola Sturgeon warns in the papers and online over the past few days.

These two and the other politicians amaze me, they speak like they're experts on the subject, I wouldn't trust any of them with a child's chemistry set as it seems to me they have no idea about anything science based and trot out same old nonsense in the vain hope eventually what they're saying is true.

 

[Domh245]

Test and Trace have been prioritising hot spot areas for testing so it has been quite hard to book a test in London (and other less affected area too) and the number of tests there has been falling hence they have presumably looked at the number of tests done vs total demand for tests.

Whilst I agree with what you're saying about the arcgis widget (it's only as good as the data - from the testing - fed into it), I'm not so sure about the testing issues you describe. The Times did some 'investigation' and produced this map showing the ease of getting a test across the country:

Whilst the South East (or Midlands!) isn't at the same availability as Scotland is, it certainly wouldn't appear to be starved of tests in the same way that the North is

 

[The Ham]

Test and Trace have been prioritising hot spot areas for testing so it has been quite hard to book a test in London (and other less affected area too) and the number of tests there has been falling hence they have presumably looked at the number of tests done vs total demand for tests.

The testing stats assume a functional test and trace system that can cope, which is no longer the case....
Hence you have to look beyond +ve test numbers in a area no it is no longer simple.

However my local area hasn't seen more than 5 cases a day since mid May and is currently 7 for the whole of the last full week, then even allowing for that things may have fallen over a bit of late then infection levels are likely to still be much lower than areas where there's currently high rates of infection even allowing for poor test availablity.

 

[hwl]

Whilst I agree with what you're saying about the arcgis widget (it's only as good as the data - from the testing - fed into it), I'm not so sure about the testing issues you describe. The Times did some 'investigation' and produced this map showing the ease of getting a test across the country:

Whilst the South East (or Midlands!) isn't at the same availability as Scotland is, it certainly wouldn't appear to be starved of tests in the same way that the North is

But how recent is that Times data? The NI test system has been known not to be able to cope for almost the last week but still shown as 100% in most places hence I suspect the data may be a little dated, especially since Dido Harding's select committee comments last Thursday effectively said they couldn't keep up. Locally (60% Blue area) no one can seem to be able to book a test.

PS to add:
Test and Trace in London is apparently barely functional based on various comments today.

 

[Domh245]

But how recent is that Times data? The NI test system has been known not to be able to cope for almost the last week but still shown as 100% in most places hence I suspect the data may be a little dated, especially since Dido Harding's select committee comments last Thursday effectively said they couldn't keep up. Locally (60% Blue area) no one can seem to be able to book a test.

It was from a story on late Friday evening, so presumably the data was from that week - I've only seen the map rather than the full report. It is of course a not foolproof methodology, and it's only measuring being able to book a test - not necessarily being offered a test anywhere practical, but it's an interesting thing to consider. Based on that map, if anything I'd have said the areas with low availability on the map are likely to result in bigger underreporting of cases compared to areas with better testing, ie the North is looking much worse than the data shows, London may be looking worse than the data shows.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Some of it has been leaked - pubs to table service only and closing at 10pm pretty much confirmed:

Covid: Pubs and restaurants in England to have 10pm closing times

Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove also says that "if people can work from home they should".

www.bbc.co.uk

Not clear if there will be anything else.

 

[Huntergreed]

Some of it has been leaked - pubs to table service only and closing at 10pm pretty much confirmed:

Covid: Pubs and restaurants in England to have 10pm closing times

Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove also says that "if people can work from home they should".

www.bbc.co.uk

Not clear if there will be anything else.

My guess would be this combined with a rule of no mixing households indoors (probably keep rule of 6 outdoors, but with stronger enforcement)

 

[yorkie]

However, I was under the impression, and I confess my ignorance, that there was no evidence one way or another that having had Covid gave you immunity.

You don't need to develop Covid19 to gain immunity; see my numerous posts on the subject.

There is currently (and might never be) any effective way of easily testing for who has T cells that can recognise and destroy Sars-Cov-2 infected cells; pro-lockdown people are desperate to avoid talking about T cells as they can use the antibody argument to claim we have much less immunity than we really do. They also make other false claims such as low levels of antibodies equates to low levels of immunity.

During lockdown I made it my mission to do plenty of research on the subject and listen to/watch numerous interviews; I am therefore well equipped to argue against the unknowledgeable lockdown enthusiast brigade.

I'm afraid you've been had! Many people have!

Therefore, creating a vaccine would be the means of creating that "herd immunity".

But we cannot have a severe set of restrictions until several million people have had the vaccine.