South Wales 'Metro' updates

[Gareth Marston]

Well with the new Northern franchise having been awarded to Arriva and strictly ruling out Pacers and it looks like D-trains as well, what are the chances of the Valley lines getting a load of worn-out, tired, only good enough for scrap Pacers and souped up D-trains dumped on them in 4 years time? Arriva Northern have said that they'll be eliminating their Pacers by 2019, if Porterbrook intend to refubish the 144s for the Valley lines they'll need to be released in 2018 at the latest.
Right now, it seems the best the Valley lines can hope for is to desperately get hold of any 150/1s and maybe 150/2s that GWR or Northern might release, which is a dire situation.

It's only 5 months to go until the Assembly elections and there are no signals as yet from any of the political parties in Wales that anyone wants to make the rolling stock on the Valley lines and indeed the chronic shortage of stock elsewhere in Wales a political issue. There's more fighting going on between the parties over the M4 relief road and stupid, child like mud-slinging from Andrew RT Davies in the Assembly chamber at Carwyn Jones over the bleeding NHS!

I believe firmly in devolution, but on rail all parties in the Assembly are desperately letting Wales down. It's a disgrace.

With Valleys Lines electrification now pencilled in for 2023 with GWML to Swansea earlier there's is 4 maybe 5 years enough for Porterbrrook to earn on 144e?
I can't see 150's leaving North or GW

 

[gareth950]

With Valleys Lines electrification now pencilled in for 2023 with GWML to Swansea earlier there's is 4 maybe 5 years enough for Porterbrrook to earn on 144e?
I can't see 150's leaving North or GW

Does anyone seriously believe now that valley lines electrification will be complete by 2023? GWML electrification to Cardiff has been put back to 2019, with the wires to Swansea going up 'by 2024' but nothing is definite.
Pacers and D-trains could be in S Wales for a decade which would just make it the laughing stock of the UK in rail terms.
The WG still can't decide what type of network they even want the VL to be! It seems VL electrification is written in very light pencil atm with parts being rubbed out.

 

[anthony263]

I think we will see refurbished class 143/144's heading to south wales along with some d trains

The 144's might be handy especially if they are 3 carriage units and I wont mind the D Trains if they are just until the valleys are wired. The welsh government wants to use tram trains for the valleys north of Cardiff yet I do think they will also have to be used on the Vale of Glamorgan and Penarth branches for operational reasons with all the extra services I don't think it is wise to split routes @ Cardiff.

That said there is a suggestion of diverting the Coryton/Rhymney services via Cardiff Bay rather than down to Central so perhaps that spur from Cardiff Bay to central might happen.

According to my local newspaper and talk locally the constructed of the bio mass power station ear Llangynwydd is due to start in 2016 and as part of this a loop is to be constructed in Llangynwydd to be used by freight and passenger services.

Once rolling stock is available I hope to see the half hourly service introduced on the Maesteg branch

 

[Envoy]

A new press release has been issued by the Welsh Government. It says that exhibitions on the Metro project are now taking place. (Pontypridd & Newport is today > 25 February 2016 7am to 1pm).
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/first-look-south-wales-metro-10947144

 

[Gareth Marston]

The 3d animation shows a snowy South Wales - are we expecting harsher winters due to climate change?

 

[Solaris]

Looks like the procurement has started....


https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/search/show/search_view.aspx?ID=JUL144353

indicates a procurement of between £4Bn and £5Bn.....

Welsh Government is conducting a single procurement to appoint an Operator and Development Partner (ODP) to undertake the following functions:
a. the operation of the Wales and Borders rail franchise;
b. the design and management of the development and implementation of capital works to deliver a Metro style service on the Core Valleys Lines and subsequent infrastructure management of the Core Valleys Lines;
c. the operation of rail and related aspects of the South Wales Metro service;
d. the design and development of further schemes to improve rail travel in Wales.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Looks like the procurement has started....
indicates a procurement of between £4Bn and £5Bn.....

This is a weird mixture of a rail franchise and a metro construction project, neither of which is at all well-defined at the moment.
I could understand WG procuring consultants to help them develop both sides of the equation further, but they are hardly in a position to offer a meaningful £5bn contract to anybody in the next year or so.

The only similar setup I am aware of is the M40 Trains/Laing partnership for the Chiltern franchise.
M40 ran the franchise (under the Chiltern name) and Laing did the infrastructure planning which gave us Evergreen 1/2/3.
Today it's all now DB Arriva, and what infrastructure work there is is done by NR.

Somewhat similar are the consortia put together to build/extend/operate Manchester Metrolink for TfGM, and probably the other metro systems.
You might also argue that Network Rail could be the infrastructure partner, as it has been to Transport Scotland for the Borders railway.
So Arriva/NR seem to be the incumbents. Who else would bid for this?
The other franchise owners haven't shown much interest in leading on infrastructure changes, mainly because DfT/ORR/NR don't like it.

But I also don't see how this fits with the powers the WG currently has, either for the W&B franchise or the Metro.
Can they manage a contract like this?

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Can they manage a contract like this?

The historical evidence of dreamt up and abandoned projects in Wales is worrying, but the Scottish Executive/Government got their act together and managed some good work fairly early on within the devolution framework, so there's hope too.

 

[gareth950]

b. the design and management of the development and implementation of capital works to deliver a Metro style service on the Core Valleys Lines and subsequent infrastructure management of the Core Valleys Lines;
c. the operation of rail and related aspects of the South Wales Metro service;
d. the design and development of further schemes to improve rail travel in Wales.

It would be interesting to discover what are the WG classifying as the Core Valley lines? Just the Valley lines north of Queen Street probably.
Which means the current lines to Penarth, through VOG to Bridgend and Barry and the half of the City Line west of Central to Radyr will most likely be left out of the bulk of the Metro scheme.

This will mean splitting the valley lines at Central and the end of through journeys from Penarth / Barry / Bridgend via VOG up the valleys, which will cause headaches for a lot of commuters west of Central.

If the whole of the current VL network could be completely converted over to light rail that would be great, but it sounds like there are plans to split up the current VL network which is just going to end up a mess. Not to mention freight still runs daily on most valleys routes, esp. through VOG.

Also worth mentioning that since the Brexit vote and the fact that the Metro project was relying on at least £150 million of EU funding, the WG has said this:

Plans to upgrade public transport in south Wales may have to change after Brexit, the first minister has said.

Carwyn Jones told AMs ministers will press ahead with the £600m Metro project but warned it could take longer to deliver.

But he said there were no guarantees the UK government would protect EU funding, needed for the scheme.

Later Economy Secretary Ken Skates told AMs that construction on the metro will take place from 2019.

The Metro is intended to provide better trains, faster buses and light rail or tram services in Cardiff and the valleys.

It was announced last year that £600m will be spent on the current phase of the metro.

That included £125m from the UK government and £150m in European regional development funding.

'Open for business'

In a statement on his priorities for government, the first minister told AMs on Tuesday that despite uncertainty over significant element of EU funding for the Metro project, his government "will be pressing ahead" with its development.

"It may not be in exactly the same form as before, we will have to look at alternative funding models and it may take longer to get to where we want to be, but I believe this is an important signal to employers that Wales is still open for business", he said.

Mr Jones said he had hoped to publish a detailed programme for the government's five-year term before the summer recess started next week, but he was putting it off until September because of Brexit.

The first minister restated his call for the UK government to guarantee replacing the EU funding currently enjoyed by Wales, estimated at around £600m a year.

"Without this assurance we face a very large hole in our future budgets," he said.

Later in the Senedd Economy Secretary Mr Skates said construction on the Metro "will take place from 2019, with services operating as soon as possible, and this will depend on the solution being delivered".

Earlier on Tuesday, Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns claimed that tackling the "root causes" of economic problems in poorer parts of Wales would be more effective than replacing EU grants with Westminster cash.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-36766564

So Wales without a doubt needs some form of stop-gap DMU fleet to get it into the 2020s, although this time the fleet really does have to be a stop-gap, not a long term 'stop-gap' fleet, eg. Pacers.

 

[WatcherZero]

...

But I also don't see how this fits with the powers the WG currently has, either for the W&B franchise or the Metro.
Can they manage a contract like this?

I believe that's the whole point, they've accepted they would be unable to manage such a large and complex transport modernisation project. The other City regions have rail directors on six figure salaries and small teams of skilled professionals to manage scheme development and franchise standards along with being able to call on the manpower resources of the Dft and Network Rail.

WG seems to be wisely recognising it would be extremely expensive and potentially risky to try and do a complex £5bn project inhouse (A country with an economy smaller than Greater Manchester or Leeds and not much higher population).

 

[Envoy]

It would be a disaster if they were to split the services in Cardiff. Where would be the advantage if people from the valleys had to transfer to other trains in order to reach (for example) Barry or Rhoose for the Airport? What would be the gain in doing this? Is it just to run some sort of tram from Merthyr/ Treherbert etc. direct to Cardiff Bay via the street? This would inconvenience more people than those who would derive benefit from a direct service to the Bay.

I say - stick with an electrified valleys network (staying off street) linking the valleys with the coast. Ensure that proper trains are used that are fit for purpose for the relatively long journey say between Merthyr and Barry. This is not some local city rail/tramway and speed is of the essence in linking the upper valleys with Cardiff & the coast.

 

[edwin_m]

I say - stick with an electrified valleys network (staying off street) linking the valleys with the coast. Ensure that proper trains are used that are fit for purpose for the relatively long journey say between Merthyr and Barry. This is not some local city rail/tramway and speed is of the essence in linking the upper valleys with Cardiff & the coast.

Do the Valley Lines ever get above the 50mph or so maximum speed a light rail vehicle would be capable of? I exclude Maesteg and Ebbw Vale, which while part of the Valley Lines for marketing purposes are operationally part of the main line and would probably use a traditional EMU whatever happened to the services via Queen Street.

I do agree that splitting the service at Cardiff would be a bad move - not least because there isn't enough space to terminate trains at that sort of frequency from both directions. Any solution other than traditional heavy rail then has to face the issue of sharing with freight and diversions on the Barry line.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Do the Valley Lines ever get above the 50mph or so maximum speed a light rail vehicle would be capable of? I exclude Maesteg and Ebbw Vale, which while part of the Valley Lines for marketing purposes are operationally part of the main line and would probably use a traditional EMU whatever happened to the services via Queen Street.

Nothing faster than 60mph north of Queen St or via the City Line, and not much of that.
Most of it is 45/50mph.
The same applies to the Vale route to Bridgend.

 

[Envoy]

Slower services could ensue if more stops are inserted. For example, a stop near Wedal Road /Eastern Avenue in Cardiff has been suggested on the ‘fast' section that runs between Heath Halt and Queen Street.

 

[WatcherZero]

Would they be able to compensate for that with better acceleration performance and shorter dwells though. Look at the Oldham line conversion they added around 5 new stations with a journey time that was still faster than the old stopper service.

 

[edwin_m]

Would they be able to compensate for that with better acceleration performance and shorter dwells though. Look at the Oldham line conversion they added around 5 new stations with a journey time that was still faster than the old stopper service.

That would be one of the reasons to consider light rail. Maximum speed is less important than acceleration (and tram-train designs can go up to 60mph+).

 

[Lurpi]

Looks like the procurement has started....


https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/search/show/search_view.aspx?ID=JUL144353

indicates a procurement of between £4Bn and £5Bn.....

Welsh Government is conducting a single procurement to appoint an Operator and Development Partner (ODP) to undertake the following functions:
a. the operation of the Wales and Borders rail franchise;
b. the design and management of the development and implementation of capital works to deliver a Metro style service on the Core Valleys Lines and subsequent infrastructure management of the Core Valleys Lines;
c. the operation of rail and related aspects of the South Wales Metro service;
d. the design and development of further schemes to improve rail travel in Wales.

As things stand currently, this is all pie in the sky.

The Welsh Government, whether you agree or disagree, has no powers whatsoever to undertake works on Network Rail's network. It can only gain those powers if the UK government grants them, which to date it hasn't done.

Note that even in Scotland, where NR is devolved to a level not in place in Wales, the Scottish Government cannot on its own initiative undertake new works on the network. When the Scottish government tried first time round to deliver the Borders Railway through an outsourced private finance deal, it had to ask for permission for the role of nominated undertaker to be transferred from NR to Transport Scotland.

I also have no idea where the WG is going to get £5 billion from - given that under the Wales Act 2014, their capital borrowing is limited to £500 million (see clause 183 here).

The WG seems to be running this procurement (and spending tens of thousands of pounds on it, at least) in the hope that it can present the UK government with a fait accompli and they will roll over. Might not work, not if Theresa May doesn't feel so inclined and NR advises the govt to reject it.

Those video visualisations Carwyn Jones was simpering about might come back to haunt him.

 

[Envoy]

Well, I thought that once the Welsh elections were over (Spring 2016), that at least the Valley Lines and Vale of Glam Coast Line would be ready for the go-ahead for electrification and that an order would be in for new rolling stock. The way things are going, Pacers will still be in use in 2030 -especially as they now won’t have to modify them as we are leaving the EU!

All talk and no action!

 

[PHILIPE]

Well, I thought that once the Welsh elections were over (Spring 2016), that at least the Valley Lines and Vale of Glam Coast Line would be ready for the go-ahead for electrification and that an order would be in for new rolling stock. The way things are going, Pacers will still be in use in 2030 -especially as they now won’t have to modify them as we are leaving the EU!

All talk and no action!

Can't see any more rolling stock being ordered until the ATW (or Wales and Borders) Franchise being re-let in 2018

 

[Gareth Marston]

It's been known for years that Wales would not be getting any higher component of EU funding beyond 2020 anyway, some of the early stages that will form part of the Metro have had EU funding I.e Ebbw Vale a Town extension but the bulk of it never was due to receive it.

So why are so many posters wringing their hands about EU funding and the Metro - a non issue?

 

[Envoy]

Can't see any more rolling stock being ordered until the ATW (or Wales and Borders) Franchise being re-let in 2018

If that is so, I find it incredible. Packed out old rolling stock and you think nothing will even be ordered until the ATW franchise runs out in 2018. Can’t they decide now who will operate the franchise and get things moving ahead?

 

[gareth950]

If that is so, I find it incredible. Packed out old rolling stock and you think nothing will even be ordered until the ATW franchise runs out in 2018. Can’t they decide now who will operate the franchise and get things moving ahead?

Agreed. By the time the new franchise is finalised in 2018, all of the available DMUs to be cascaded across the UK will have been snatched up and there will be no additional DMUs left for Wales to boost capacity apart from 143s and 144s from Northern that no other franchises want. That's not even considering getting the VL fleet DDA complaint.

Don't forget also that the WG still doesn't officially have powers over rail devolved to it yet - that's coming next summer after the passage of the Wales bill through the next session Parliament. So officially WG can't do anything other than pass the buck back to ATW and the DFT. We still don't know if the current Wales and Borders franchise is to be broken up.

Considering the initial announcement for straightforward electrification of the VL (to coincide with electrification to Swansea), including the WHOLE VL network, was made by the UK govt in 2012 with a view to it being finished in 2019, it's all just turned into a giant farce.

 

[BantamMenace]

Considering the initial announcement for straightforward electrification of the VL (to coincide with electrification to Swansea), including the WHOLE VL network, was made by the UK govt in 2012 with a view to it being finished in 2019, it's all just turned into a giant farce.

Straightforward in a sense of 'just do it all as it is' not straightforward in terms of getting it done on the ground.

Still fully believe this is the best idea though instead of a complex and comparatively untried conversion.

IMO an order for 3 car EMUs (high acceleration 75mph) with an option for 4th carriages all fitted with SDO for doubling up during events and peaks. I also would support spinning it off from the main Wales franchise on the grounds of a slightly more micromanaged approach.

 

[Lurpi]

Don't forget also that the WG still doesn't officially have powers over rail devolved to it yet -

I already said that a few posts ago :roll:

- that's coming next summer after the passage of the Wales bill through the next session Parliament. So officially WG can't do anything other than pass the buck back to ATW and the DFT. We still don't know if the current Wales and Borders franchise is to be broken up.

My reading of the Wales Bill is that when passed, it will still NOT grant the Welsh Government the powers to carry out Metro by itself.

Railways remain a reserved area under Schedule 7A to the bill, and the exception to the reservation (financial assistance to railway services) doesn't extend far enough to grant it powers to contract for works on Network Rail's network (although it does devolve tramways and other guided transport).

Hence, pie in the sky. And again, as I say, they don't have either the cash or the borrowing powers to pay for it, now or after the Wales Bill passes.

Judge for yourselves here.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I don't disagree with you, but some other legislation must be in train to allow WG to let the next W&B franchise.
But with new faces on both sides, and everybody distracted by Brexit, it doesn't look promising.
The bidders will be very wary of getting stuck in a WG/DfT quagmire.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Straightforward in a sense of 'just do it all as it is' not straightforward in terms of getting it done on the ground.

Still fully believe this is the best idea though instead of a complex and comparatively untried conversion.

IMO an order for 3 car EMUs (high acceleration 75mph) with an option for 4th carriages all fitted with SDO for doubling up during events and peaks. I also would support spinning it off from the main Wales franchise on the grounds of a slightly more micromanaged approach.

The option put forward by Network Rail in the Wales RUS is for platform extensions to accommodate 6 x 23m vehicles in 3 vehicle formations - essentially Class 323 clones.

The Valley Lines electrification scheme was designed very much on the basis of the Birmingham Cross City scheme with traffic travelling through a central core section (in this case Cardiff Queen Street-Cardiff Central) and then continuing to other destinations, including some where they may be working alongside intercity services (in the case of the Vale of Glamorgan route to Bridgend) and freight services (such as the services to Cwmbargoed Opencast Colliery).

 

[gareth950]

The option put forward by Network Rail in the Wales RUS is for platform extensions to accommodate 6 x 23m vehicles in 3 vehicle formations - essentially Class 323 clones.

Which is exactly what the valley lines need: 3 - 6 car EMUs. Massive improvements could be made by getting this, along with platform lengthening. NR have already just renewed all the signalling infrastructure for Heavy rail through the CASR.

Double tracking up the heads of the valleys would increase service levels there.

The headache is how to increase frequencies through Queen St -- Central and West of Central which will need major track infrastructure changes and ideally a re-instated platform 5 at Central.
Could 4 tracking the section between Queen St and Central, as well as replacing the Newport Rd bridge to allow services from the north to be split before Queen St, ever realistically be achieved? (cost aside!)

 

[edwin_m]

Could 4 tracking the section between Queen St and Central, as well as replacing the Newport Rd bridge to allow services to be split before Queen St, ever realistically be achieved? (cost aside!)

It would need the viaduct widening to the south with demolition of various new buildings on Callaghan Square. The bottleneck is probably the platforms at Central rather than the connecting line in any case - and modern EMUs would help a bit here because they should achieve shorter dwell times than Pacers.

 

[Wolfie]

Well, I thought that once the Welsh elections were over (Spring 2016), that at least the Valley Lines and Vale of Glam Coast Line would be ready for the go-ahead for electrification and that an order would be in for new rolling stock. The way things are going, Pacers will still be in use in 2030 -especially as they now won’t have to modify them as we are leaving the EU!

All talk and no action!

My bold

Not the first time that I have seen this erroneous rubbish posted - the 2019 deadline came from the DDA which is UK legislation and absolutely nothing to do with the EU...

 

[Envoy]

My bold

Not the first time that I have seen this erroneous rubbish posted - the 2019 deadline came from the DDA which is UK legislation and absolutely nothing to do with the EU...

Many thanks for the correction. I had always read reference to the fact that it was an EU requirement. So, where does that leave the Valley lines now - with nothing ordered and the likelihood that the Pacers will still be in service? How much will it cost to modify each Pacer to make it compliant?