South Wales 'Metro' updates

[edwin_m]

There are various solutions that might allow simplified tramway-style operation north of Central while keeping conventional railway operation on the Barry and VoG lines and through trains between the two. This might increase costs compared with a pure tramway conversion north of Central (if the freight is discontinued), but as well as the passenger inconvenience that would cause I'm not sure there is space at Central or Queen Street to terminate an intensive service of trains and a similarly intensive service of trams back-to-back.

Although Maesteg and Ebbw Vale are marketed as part of Valley Lines, they are the only ones that touch the South Wales main line. To my mind the obvious solution is to separate them operationally from the Valleys and work with normal DMUs, possibly becoming electric at some point in the future. Operational integration with Swanline and any future Abergavenny extra short workings is an obvious possibility.

 

[PHILIPE]

All the money spent over recent years on improved track, improved signalling and platform openings. Would all this be wasted if the Metro was to be built.

 

[gareth950]

According to November's Modern Railways, the core Valley lines comprise everything but the Vale of Glamorgan, Penarth, Maesteg and Ebbw Vale lines, which remain in NR's hands.

This is interesting because, when Valley Lines electrification was first announced in 2012, all four of those 'non-core' lines were included.

So will the £150 million promised by the Westminster government towards Valley lines wiring be shared between the core and non-core lines? And if not, will the non-core lines be wired at all?

I realise I should be asking NR but thought it was worth posing even just rhetorically.

It's pretty unbelievable really that we've gone from that completely sensible idea to wire the whole of the current valley lines system, to just converting the lines north of Queen St to trams and possibly carrying on with DMUs on the rest of the 'non-core' valleys network. All allegedly because Christian Wolmar wrote an article in 2014 in RAIL magazine or Modern Railways, I can't remember which, suggesting trams would be better.

All the money spent over recent years on improved track, improved signalling and platform openings. Would all this be wasted if the Metro was to be built.

Depressingly it looks that way, as all of the CASR work that's being completed in January was done as a pre-cursor to HR electrification in the whole Cardiff & Valleys area. There are no words.

 

[Dai Corner]

I wonder what impact the £400M Barnett Formula 'windfall' from the Chancellor's Autum statement will have?

 

[snowball]

All allegedly because Christian Wolmar wrote an article in 2014 in RAIL magazine or Modern Railways, I can't remember which, suggesting trams would be better.

Wolmar doesn't write in Modern Railways, though Roger Ford sometimes jokes about him there, referring to him as the World's Greatest Railway Journalist.

To be fair, Ian Walmsley in Modern Railways has also written in favour of the tram idea.

 

[Solaris]

The LR idea ....

 

[alb1]

An interesting article published today regarding 'plans' for a new Cardiff Parkway station at St Mellons.

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/business/business-news/plans-revealed-huge-new-development-12247891

Given the size of the business park planned, and the fact that St Mellons seems to have been crying out for alternative public transport for ages, I can see this one being a goer independently of the Metro plans.

 

[WatcherZero]

The interesting development to me is that they are considering introducing loco hauled 442 for extra capacity on the Manchester services releasing stock for internal cascade even before the end of the existing franchise.

 

[gareth950]

An interesting article published today regarding 'plans' for a new Cardiff Parkway station at St Mellons.

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/business/business-news/plans-revealed-huge-new-development-12247891

Given the size of the business park planned, and the fact that St Mellons seems to have been crying out for alternative public transport for ages, I can see this one being a goer independently of the Metro plans.

Eastern Cardiff has been in desperate need of a train station like this for many years now. But if the idea of this station would be to add growth to the SWML, why are GWR going to be shortening the length of Swansea/Cardiff - London trains when the class 800s come in? Going from 8 car HSTs to 5 car SETs makes no sense when you want to encourage MORE people onto the trains. Have no lessons been learned from Voyagers?

Sorry that question has probably been done to death in the various Great Western electrification and rolling stock threads on this forum already but it makes no sense at all!

 

[HowardGWR]

Regarding the Valleys services, is there a bunch of statistics of usage on each route available? I ask because that is surely relevant (with growth predictions) as to whether a tram, tram /train, or train service is future proofed, just leaving aside the access to Central for a moment. On growth, more than one line could be extended or branched, in the future, so that affects growth too.

I juts wonder whether the Walmsley / Wolmar view is not influenced by those decades of retrenchment.

 

[Clarence Yard]

Eastern Cardiff has been in desperate need of a train station like this for many years now. But if the idea of this station would be to add growth to the SWML, why are GWR going to be shortening the length of Swansea/Cardiff - London trains when the class 800s come in? Going from 8 car HSTs to 5 car SETs makes no sense when you want to encourage MORE people onto the trains. Have no lessons been learned from Voyagers?

Sorry that question has probably been done to death in the various Great Western electrification and rolling stock threads on this forum already but it makes no sense at all!

Absolutely no sense at all which is why it isn't happening. All Swanseas will be load 9 or 10.

 

[gareth950]

Absolutely no sense at all which is why it isn't happening. All Swanseas will be load 9 or 10.

But Cardiff only services will be going down from 8 coaches currently to 5?

 

[Clarence Yard]

But Cardiff only services will be going down from 8 coaches currently to 5?

Will check the 2018 diagrams and tell you tomorrow. Iirc, most, if not all, are full length.
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Will check the 2018 diagrams and tell you tomorrow. Iirc, most, if not all, are full length.

All but a couple during the middle of the day are currently planned to be full length trains.

 

[anthony263]

I certainly agree St Mellons & ADAMSTOWN/Newport road need a station however I don't agree with stopping many of the long distance service at those stations should be local services such as the Ebbw Vale, Chelteham, perhaps Tauntons as wlel as local services to Abergavenny & Chepstow stopping there same can be said for the Magor/Undy station


I also don't agree with eth Cardiff Parkway name much better to stick to the St Mellons name.

Finally a station at Miskin connected with a park and ride site just off Jct 34 would certainly help if it is served by half hourly services to/from Maesteg as well as Beddau

 

[gareth950]

My copy of November's modern railways arrived today, and this paragraph about rolling stock preparations (or lack of them) for 1st January 2020 in Wales is very alarming:

"Three-quarters of ATW's fleet does not comply with the PRM-TSI (accessibility standards) and no plan has been announced to modify any of the rolling stock for continued operation after the 1 January 2020 deadline. The Welsh Government is not seeking a derogation and expects that compliant cascaded vehicles will be available to help the Operating Development Partner (ODP) to sustain services until new trains are delivered, Modern Railways understands".

So the Welsh Government is happy to just write off 3/4 of the current Welsh fleet beyond January 2020? The next operator better be sourcing plenty of buses ready for 1/1/2020.

 

[gareth950]

Another report on the Metro was on the Sunday Politics Wales this morning. Look for it on iPlayer about 45 minutes in. Included an interview with Ken Skates.
Paraphrasing him: "I want the Metro to primarily be about the valleys communities. I don't want it to be a Cardiff based project."

I've also just read another article here which adds more weight to the claim that the current network will be split up. (you need to sign up but then its free)

Skates said: “On the core Valley Lines, i.e. those stations north of Cardiff Queen Street plus the Cardiff Bay line, passenger operations making use of diesel-only traction will be phased out. Conventional electrification, stored energy systems and hybrid systems will be considered.”

The separation of the “core Valley Lines” from other local routes, notably Cardiff to Bridgend via the Vale of Glamorgan line, implies that the core and non-core lines are likely to have different types of rolling stock.

The Vale of Glamorgan line is also used by various freight movements, and is a diversionary route for long-distance passenger trains when the main line is closed. These uses are probably incompatible with light rail, at least until the UK’s tram-train pilot is eventually conducted in South Yorkshire.

The more I read and hear about the Metro, the more I wonder if the Vale of Glamorgan, Barry, Penarth, Central - Radyr via Ninian Park, Maesteg and Ebbw Vale lines are going to get any improvements at all.
So any predictions on what these lines will be lucky to get?

Best case scenario would be full OHLE by Network Rail or the new franchise operator (tied in with Swansea OHLE if that happens) to allow cascaded or new EMUs (321s from Anglia?) to operate on these lines.

Next best case - no electrification but new DMUs tagged onto the Northern order.

Worst case scenario - no new rolling stock & no electrification. Cascaded 150/2s from elsewhere in Wales to allow 4 car 150/2s at all times. Pacers scrapped.

At least half hourly Central - VOG - Bridgend should be able to be achieved with just more stock, as wasn't that the reason for building the new platform at Barry?

 

[Mordac]

Your worst case scenario shows a striking lack of imagination. Worst case scenario is more like they all get converted to guided busways!

 

[takno]

Your worst case scenario shows a striking lack of imagination. Worst case scenario is more like they all get converted to guided busways!

*guided* busways? Luxury...

 

[glbotu]

Your worst case scenario shows a striking lack of imagination. Worst case scenario is more like they all get converted to guided busways!

I think the Cambridgeshire example has put paid to any new guided busways in this country for a while.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I think the Cambridgeshire example has put paid to any new guided busways in this country for a while.

that's if commons sense is used - which it wasn't in bucket loads from Cambridgeshire CC

 

[snowball]

I think the Cambridgeshire example has put paid to any new guided busways in this country for a while.

It didn't stop the Leigh one being built.

 

[D1009]

Worst case scenario - no new rolling stock & no electrification. Cascaded 150/2s from elsewhere in Wales to allow 4 car 150/2s at all times. Pacers scrapped.

Have you worked out whether there will be enough 150/2s displaced from other areas to be able to do that?

 

[gareth950]

Have you worked out whether there will be enough 150/2s displaced from other areas to be able to do that?

No, but according to some posters in the ATW Class 442 thread, if enough extra long distance stock can be found to displace all of ATW's 150/2s down to the valleys then it might be a possibility. Wales might be able to scoop up some 153s from elsewhere in the UK as well which can be used on the Vale of Glamorgan lines to boost capacity.

Barry and Bridgend via the Vale services need 2 x 150/2s now (and only get them on Sundays), Penarth and City line via Ninian Park could manage with 1 x 150/2.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think the Cambridgeshire example has put paid to any new guided busways in this country for a while.

Has it? It has been mind-blowingly successful - far more so than an hourly single-track branch line with a 153 on it would ever have been (and if it had been rail, that's what we'd have got).

There have been construction-related issues, but so have there been (far worse) on the Edinburgh tramway.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Your worst case scenario shows a striking lack of imagination. Worst case scenario is more like they all get converted to guided busways!

The *actual* worst-case scenario is closure when the Pacers are scrapped by law, but I see that as unlikely.

A more feasible worst-case scenario is that the Pacers are converted to e-Pacers and the lines soldier on with the same number as now but heavily reduced capacity due to the DDA bog, or that the bogs are simply removed[1].

[1] The irony of this "get-out" is that it discriminates against more people, namely those with medical issues requiring frequent toilet use. In my view the law got this one wrong - removal should not be an option, rather they (or equivalent facilities at stations open for the full period of service) should be mandatory. Properly maintained 20p-in-a-slot autobogs should do the job.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Other possibilities: D-319s (broadly equivalent in practice to 2x150) or Class 230s.

 

[glbotu]

Has it? It has been mind-blowingly successful - far more so than an hourly single-track branch line with a 153 on it would ever have been (and if it had been rail, that's what we'd have got).

There have been construction-related issues, but so have there been (far worse) on the Edinburgh tramway.

I mean, yes, it has been more successful than an hourly 153, but that's more a factor of the awfulness that is the A14 than the busway itself. ANYTHING would have done well.

The issue with the guided busway was that it was heralded as a huge cost saving, for an essentially similar capacity as a rail (which I think was going to be a little more than an hourly 153, something like a half hourly 170) or light rail alternative, when what actually happened was that it was in fact more expensive, not to mention not solving the inner Cambridge capacity issues, by still adding bus vehicles into central Cambridge (which replaced the equivalent buses that used to crawl along the A14).

 

[PHILIPE]

No, but according to some posters in the ATW Class 442 thread, if enough extra long distance stock can be found to displace all of ATW's 150/2s down to the valleys then it might be a possibility. Wales might be able to scoop up some 153s from elsewhere in the UK as well which can be used on the Vale of Glamorgan lines to boost capacity.

Barry and Bridgend via the Vale services need 2 x 150/2s now (and only get them on Sundays), Penarth and City line via Ninian Park could manage with 1 x 150/2.

What is cascaded is all speculation and ifs and buts so I, personally, don't bother to think. Some of the City Line (1/3) manage with a 153 now.

 

[gareth950]

What is cascaded is all speculation and ifs and buts so I, personally, don't bother to think. Some of the City Line (1/3) manage with a 153 now.

I think I will follow that advice as its all looking so dire for Wales at the moment in terms of rolling stock its just depressing the farce of it all. End of 2017 is currently the date that's being mentioned in the media for when we should know the next franchise holder so another year of speculation will be too much.

 

[Solaris]

Core valley lines most likely to be ....

 

[gareth950]

Core valley lines most likely to be an all new light rail fleet....

Yes we know, you keep saying but what about everywhere else, ie. What's now being called the 'non-core' valley lines south of queen street? Any mention of any improvements to those lines seems to have evaporated.......maybe that's because those lines aren't getting any.

 

[aylesbury]

A professor from Wales stated in a report released at the weekend and reported on BBC Wales said that metro operation in south Wales is not viable.The way forward is heavy rail electrification with through services offering better connectivity.Wether anyone will listen is a moot point looking at the record of Welsh government.