Speculative : future of the British bus industry

[markymark2000]

That sounds a slow process. Is there anything in their proposals that says this?

It was reported in another forum as more of a dead cert but I can't find the post now.


The best result I can get for you is from Buses magazine which shows this as an alternative being considered over buying the depots.

GREATER MANCHESTER FRANCHISING

A LONDON-STYLE SYSTEM?DAVID JENKINS delves through the Greater...

www.keybuses.com

Greater Manchester is therefore considering two options if it cannot agree terms to acquire existing depots. The first is to pursue a Compulsory Purchase Order (CPO). The authority says it has the powers, dating back to the Transport Act 1968, but it is unclear as to whether a CPO has ever been used to acquire a depot before, or even if it is acceptable for a CPO to be used in this way. Even if it is, it can take two to three years for the process to produce results.

The alternative now being considered is to set up multiple smaller depots, in some of the many light industrial estates that are liberally sprinkled across the north of the area, if not quite so numerous in the south. GMCA says these would be a temporary option, pending the construction of new, bigger depots in the future. In essence, this is not unlike some existing sites, such as Stagecoach's Ashton and Middleton depots, or that once used by Manchester Community Transport in Chadderton, and the now-abandoned depot First acquired from Stuarts in Dukinfield.

 

[Deerfold]

It was reported in another forum as more of a dead cert but I can't find the post now.


The best result I can get for you is from Buses magazine which shows this as an alternative being considered over buying the depots.

GREATER MANCHESTER FRANCHISING

A LONDON-STYLE SYSTEM?DAVID JENKINS delves through the Greater...

www.keybuses.com

I thought the idea was that depots would be available to new entrants, not that companies would be forced to use GMPTE-owned depots. Unfortunately I can't read the rest of the article as it's behind a paywall.

 

[Ken H]

May I point out that with zero private car use and no oil purchase facilities available, municipal electric tramways were profitable enough to subsidise public services?

The question is really HOW not IF bus services (and also the railway, electricity, gas, water, telecoms, post, NHS and social housing services etc) will be brought back under a proper public ownership model. Only if not properly executed will renationalisation be disastrous and even then only in the very short term, except of course for those who intent to continue leeching copious profits from the taxpayer.

Many tramways were not profitable in the 20's, which is why so many closed. Some routes were silly. Take Leeds - Guiseley which ran largely through nowhere after Kirkstall Lane and closed between the wars; similarly the Leeds Wakefield tramway. Trams work in high density housing but they're not so good with acres of semi -detached. The change in housing styles after WW1 with homes fit for heroes did for trams.

You also have to understand why stuff was privatised. It was because the industries needed shedloads of cash and the government was commited to keep public sector borrowing requirement low in order to control inflation. We are seeing now the inflation caused by uncontrolled borrowing so perhaps they were right.

 

[Ken H]

I thought the idea was that depots would be available to new entrants, not that companies would be forced to use GMPTE-owned depots. Unfortunately I can't read the rest of the article as it's behind a paywall.

So how does a shared depot work? Who maintains the buses? Who sorts out fights over getting the best place to park up? Who deals with a dead bus blocking the entrance?

 

[Bread & cheese]

From today's Daily Telegraph:

Grant Shapps plans £2 cap for every bus journey in England
By Charles Hymas Home Affairs Editor

The Daily Telegraph
15 Aug 2022

EVERY bus journey would be capped at £2 to help British people cope with the cost of living crisis under plans drawn up by Grant Shapps.

Writing for The Telegraph online, the Transport Secretary is proposing a £260 million taxpayers’ subsidy to cut the cost of bus journeys that would save £3 on a single ticket for many hard-pressed families.

Mr Shapps said it would provide guaranteed help to families most in need who cannot afford to own a car and are the biggest users of buses for travel.

“The most vulnerable in our society need concrete help in the coming year, measures that make an immediate and tangible difference to daily spending,” he said.

“And a simple way to do this is reduce the burden on those of us who rely on buses to get to work, the shops and the GP. Buses are for all of us, the most ubiquitous form of public transport.”

Mr Shapps is understood to have been working on the scheme since earlier this year to address a long-standing anomaly where bus services in England are more expensive and less frequent than in London, where pay-as-you-go fares are a flat rate of £1.65 if made within an hour.

It was given impetus by the soaring price of fuel, which meant travel by car was being priced out for more Britons. The plan is understood to have been under consideration by Downing Street before Boris Johnson announced his departure, but faced resistance from the Treasury.

It was being pencilled in to coincide with the huge anticipated rise in the energy cap on heating bills from the current £1,971 to around £3,600 in October.

The proposal is likely to be considered by the victor in the Tory leadership contest who is due to be announced on Sept 5.

The move would replicate governments across Europe who are slashing the price of public transport.

In Ireland fares have been cut by 20 per cent, while in Germany a ticket costing €9 (£7.62) gives unlimited travel for a month in June, July or August on local or regional public transport.

City-wide price caps of £2 are also being devised by Labour mayors, including Tracy Brabin in West Yorkshire, Andy Burnham in Greater Manchester and Steve Rotheram in Liverpool City Region. They will begin in the autumn and remain for three years.

In his article, Mr Shapps said the £2 fare cap, lasting 12 months, would apply to every bus journey in England outside London from this autumn.

He said it would be “a simple measure that provides some much-needed reassurance deep into 2023”.

With a pre-pandemic annual total of some four billion journeys, bus travel dwarfs rail travel with car-less households making four times as many bus journeys as car owners.

Government data show the lowestearning 20 per cent of the population made 75 local bus trips in 2019 on average, as opposed to 31 for the highest-earning 20 per cent.

“Bus fares across the country vary considerably and can reach £5 for a single local journey. So a potential 60 per cent saving would no doubt be welcome,” said Mr Shapps.

He said a bus fare cap could also generate new business for the sector, with a government-sponsored pilot flat rate ticket scheme in Cornwall already boosting bus use by some 10 per cent since its start.

The price cap will not apply to long-distance scheduled coach services, and nor will it be applied in Scotland or Wales.

 

[Deerfold]

From today's Daily Telegraph:

Grant Shapps plans £2 cap for every bus journey in England
By Charles Hymas Home Affairs Editor

The Daily Telegraph
15 Aug 2022

EVERY bus journey would be capped at £2 to help British people cope with the cost of living crisis under plans drawn up by Grant Shapps.

Writing for The Telegraph online, the Transport Secretary is proposing a £260 million taxpayers’ subsidy to cut the cost of bus journeys that would save £3 on a single ticket for many hard-pressed families.

Mr Shapps said it would provide guaranteed help to families most in need who cannot afford to own a car and are the biggest users of buses for travel.

“The most vulnerable in our society need concrete help in the coming year, measures that make an immediate and tangible difference to daily spending,” he said.

“And a simple way to do this is reduce the burden on those of us who rely on buses to get to work, the shops and the GP. Buses are for all of us, the most ubiquitous form of public transport.”

Mr Shapps is understood to have been working on the scheme since earlier this year to address a long-standing anomaly where bus services in England are more expensive and less frequent than in London, where pay-as-you-go fares are a flat rate of £1.65 if made within an hour.

It was given impetus by the soaring price of fuel, which meant travel by car was being priced out for more Britons. The plan is understood to have been under consideration by Downing Street before Boris Johnson announced his departure, but faced resistance from the Treasury.

It was being pencilled in to coincide with the huge anticipated rise in the energy cap on heating bills from the current £1,971 to around £3,600 in October.

The proposal is likely to be considered by the victor in the Tory leadership contest who is due to be announced on Sept 5.

The move would replicate governments across Europe who are slashing the price of public transport.

In Ireland fares have been cut by 20 per cent, while in Germany a ticket costing €9 (£7.62) gives unlimited travel for a month in June, July or August on local or regional public transport.

City-wide price caps of £2 are also being devised by Labour mayors, including Tracy Brabin in West Yorkshire, Andy Burnham in Greater Manchester and Steve Rotheram in Liverpool City Region. They will begin in the autumn and remain for three years.

In his article, Mr Shapps said the £2 fare cap, lasting 12 months, would apply to every bus journey in England outside London from this autumn.

He said it would be “a simple measure that provides some much-needed reassurance deep into 2023”.

With a pre-pandemic annual total of some four billion journeys, bus travel dwarfs rail travel with car-less households making four times as many bus journeys as car owners.

Government data show the lowestearning 20 per cent of the population made 75 local bus trips in 2019 on average, as opposed to 31 for the highest-earning 20 per cent.

“Bus fares across the country vary considerably and can reach £5 for a single local journey. So a potential 60 per cent saving would no doubt be welcome,” said Mr Shapps.

He said a bus fare cap could also generate new business for the sector, with a government-sponsored pilot flat rate ticket scheme in Cornwall already boosting bus use by some 10 per cent since its start.

The price cap will not apply to long-distance scheduled coach services, and nor will it be applied in Scotland or Wales.

If they've only found single fares up to £5 they've not done a lot of looking. I can point them towards a few £8 ones

I wonder if they've discussed the scheme with any bus operators yet.

 

[RT4038]

If they've only found single fares up to £5 they've not done a lot of looking. I can point them towards a few £8 ones

I wonder if they've discussed the scheme with any bus operators yet.

Yes, but only a few. The number of bus passenger journeys taken on £8 single tickets in England (on a single section of registered local bus service - i.e. not across two or more registrations constituting a 'split' registered service) will be an insignificant percentage of the total.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

So how does a shared depot work? Who maintains the buses? Who sorts out fights over getting the best place to park up? Who deals with a dead bus blocking the entrance?

Erm... I think you may have misinterpreted something (or I have)?

The franchises are being awarded on an area by area basis. So you have, for instance, a Wigan area package. That comes with a depot, supplied by GMPTE - it might be the current Stagecoach depot at Ince (if they can agree a deal) or one that GMPTE source anyway. You win the bidding war - you get the right to operate from that depot.

I think that's how it is envisaged it will work.

 

[station_road]

As with the bus service improvement plan money, a £2 flat fare won't make any difference if your bus is no longer running - the money might be better spent on that

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Saying that for several years Winsford, Macclesfield and possibly Wythenshawe have had rumours of disposal

So given that those rumours have persisted for several years, how accurate do you think they've been?

Of course, eventually they will go but I remember hearing this in 2005

May I point out that with zero private car use and no oil purchase facilities available, municipal electric tramways were profitable enough to subsidise public services?

However, we don't have zero private car use so not really getting your point.

The question is really HOW not IF bus services (and also the railway, electricity, gas, water, telecoms, post, NHS and social housing services etc) will be brought back under a proper public ownership model. Only if not properly executed will renationalisation be disastrous and even then only in the very short term, except of course for those who intent to continue leeching copious profits from the taxpayer.

Hmmm... did you ever live in the nationalised world? The National Bus Company was not exactly a byword for success

And Yorkshire Tiger was of course actually disposed of only for the network to see improvements as Team Pennine. Judging by how run down my local Arriva bus operation (Southport) is, they clearly have no interest in it in the long term, other than to subsidise the ICE operations of DB.

You think that's the problem with Arriva? That it's a cash cow for DB?

The issues with Arriva go far deeper than that!!!


When all is said and done, the fundamental issues are in terms of funding. The idea that the bus barons are coining it in, that there's a load of duplication that can be rationalised, is scarcely true. Yes, there are some areas where on road competition exists but otherwise, there's very little in terms of a peace dividend to be realised. Certainly, not enough to cross subsidise all of these routes that are under threat.

Then you have the real cost pressure of driver wages. Supply and demand is pushing up wages (and I think we'd all like to see drivers get paid more) but how do you recover that if not via the farebox? It needs funding.

And of course, it makes little difference in terms of ownership etc if you simply have buses stuck in traffic as there's a lack of political will to enact real bus priority and therefore make the bus seem more attractive.

 

[RT4038]

You think that's the problem with Arriva? That it's a cash cow for DB?

The issues with Arriva go far deeper than that!!!

Obviously - that is why DB wants to sell it, and nobody wants to buy it..... maybe it's all a conspiracy and it is making so much money it is an embarrassment, unlike the other bus companies?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Obviously - that is why DB wants to sell it, and nobody wants to buy it..... maybe it's all a conspiracy and it is making so much money it is an embarrassment, unlike the other bus companies?

I don't wholly understand why DB don't close it down if it's losing them money. There's no point anyone buying it; it'd only have value in regulated countries where the routes would have value. Otherwise you just set up your own company and then you can cherry pick the routes, the drivers, the management and the vehicles if you want.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I don't wholly understand why DB don't close it down if it's losing them money. There's no point anyone buying it; it'd only have value in regulated countries where the routes would have value. Otherwise you just set up your own company and then you can cherry pick the routes, the drivers, the management and the vehicles if you want.

Depends if it is actually losing them money? Also, don't know what level the goodwill is on the books so a write-down could be a big cost.

 

[RT4038]

I don't wholly understand why DB don't close it down if it's losing them money. There's no point anyone buying it; it'd only have value in regulated countries where the routes would have value. Otherwise you just set up your own company and then you can cherry pick the routes, the drivers, the management and the vehicles if you want.

I suspect that it is not doing that badly - probably just keeping head above water. They would rather have the money to reduce DB debt, but don't want the hassle and cost of closing it down.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Depends if it is actually losing them money? Also, don't know what level the goodwill is on the books so a write-down could be a big cost.

It's interesting to wonder how you'd quantify "goodwill" for a deregulated bus operation, as I can't really see that it really has any - people will use the bus or not use it pretty much regardless of who runs it.

OK, something like one of the Alex Hornby operations or a long-running and well-regarded small family operation* might be different, but the big groups just don't put in the effort.

* Kirkby Lonsdale Coaches might be one such example. It strikes me that around Lancaster they are very well regarded, while Stagecoach, er, aren't.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

It's interesting to wonder how you'd quantify "goodwill" for a deregulated bus operation, as I can't really see that it really has any - people will use the bus or not use it pretty much regardless of who runs it.

OK, something like one of the Alex Hornby operations or a long-running and well-regarded small family operation* might be different, but the big groups just don't put in the effort.

* Kirkby Lonsdale Coaches might be one such example. It strikes me that around Lancaster they are very well regarded, while Stagecoach, er, aren't.

Goodwill in an accounting sense doesn't mean that. It's the difference between the tangible assets worth vs. the purchase price.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Goodwill in an accounting sense doesn't mean that. It's the difference between the tangible assets worth vs. the purchase price.

Right. But isn't that because the business is more than the sum of its "hard" assets?

I'm not convinced a bus company really is to any significant extent, because in 56 days' time any other bus company can be running the same routes if they feel like. Possibly a very small sum to cover recruitment and planning, I guess?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Right. But isn't that because the business is more than the sum of its "hard" assets?

I'm not convinced a bus company really is to any significant extent, because in 56 days' time any other bus company can be running the same routes if they feel like. Possibly a very small sum to cover recruitment and planning, I guess?

Sorry, you're not fully getting it.

If you buy a business for £X and the value of its tangible assets are £Y, then for accounting purposes, you have to show the intangible worth (the difference) as £Z. That happens in GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles), and in every industry.

It's not about some goodwill as an arbitrary value about well "thought of" something is. You can decide to operate against Stagecoach with your 56 day ruling but does Stagecoach's brand have an inherent value and recognition? I'd argue it does.

 

[Bletchleyite]

does Stagecoach's brand have an inherent value and recognition? I'd argue it does.

I think it exists but is small. But I'd also say Arriva's brand is so heavily tarnished that it could well be close to zero. That is, the company is worth little more than its assets plus the costs that would be involved in setting it up yourself, but potentially minus its strongly negative reputation in many places where it operates.

Let's look at Avanti West Coast. Do people recognise it? Yes, of course. Do they think it's a brand that sums up an awful company they'd actively choose not to use if possible? Of course.

 

[RT4038]

I think it exists but is small. But I'd also say Arriva's brand is so heavily tarnished that it could well be close to zero. That is, the company is worth little more than its assets plus the costs that would be involved in setting it up yourself, but potentially minus its strongly negative reputation in many places where it operates.

Let's look at Avanti West Coast. Do people recognise it? Yes, of course. Do they think it's a brand that sums up an awful company they'd actively choose not to use if possible? Of course.

But this is about buses, not Avanti West Coast. Anyone could set up within 70 days, but there is a cost to that. Setting up one route maybe is cheap, but a whole network? See what happens when a company tries to do that from scratch - the cost of the competition on the road, the cost of acquiring the experience and knowledge (or not having it). The brand and its network tickets etc are worth something usually - hence the 'goodwill'. The new company will take some time to get a better reputation than the old, and that costs money too. Buying the existing business, at the 'goodwill' premium is usually worth it - why would so many companies do it otherwise?

I think it exists but is small. But I'd also say Arriva's brand is so heavily tarnished that it could well be close to zero. That is, the company is worth little more than its assets plus the costs that would be involved in setting it up yourself, but potentially minus its strongly negative reputation in many places where it operates.

Let's look at Avanti West Coast. Do people recognise it? Yes, of course. Do they think it's a brand that sums up an awful company they'd actively choose not to use if possible? Of course.

Avanti West Coast are not in the same commercial situation as an Arriva bus company. They are in a contractor situation. They have no or little assets but, if someone wanted to get this contract, it may be cheaper to pay a 'goodwill' premium rather than have to rebid , with all the costs and possibility of being outbid, that this would entail.


This accounting term 'goodwill' has nothing to do with what the passengers feel towards the company.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I think it exists but is small. But I'd also say Arriva's brand is so heavily tarnished that it could well be close to zero. That is, the company is worth little more than its assets plus the costs that would be involved in setting it up yourself, but potentially minus its strongly negative reputation in many places where it operates.

Let's look at Avanti West Coast. Do people recognise it? Yes, of course. Do they think it's a brand that sums up an awful company they'd actively choose not to use if possible? Of course.

Sorry, Neil and I'm not being narky but I don't know how much clearer I can be. Goodwill is not about some view or perception on how well thought of any business is. It is a clearly defined figure in accounting terms

Purchase price (x) less value of tangible assets (y) = intangible assets aka goodwill (z)

You buy a business and pay a price that you think is appropriate. It comes with tangible assets - property, IT hardware, furniture, vehicles or whatever. Whatever the difference between the purchase price and the value of tangible assets is goodwill.

Rotala bought Johnsons Warwickshire bus services but only paid the market value for the buses. There was no goodwill despite it being a well-respected operator as Johnsons were keen to get out of bus operation. However, with Midland Classic, it was a far more attractive purchase for Rotala so they paid more than the mere value of the assets

Purchase price £2m less value of tangible assets £1.3m = goodwill £0.7m

 

[Bletchleyite]

Sorry, Neil and I'm not being narky but I don't know how much clearer I can be. Goodwill is not about some view or perception on how well thought of any business is. It is a clearly defined figure in accounting terms

It's clearly both. Because I don't think Arriva would be worth an awful lot more than its tangible assets, for the reasons I outlined above. Which might be why it's not selling.

 

[RT4038]

It's clearly both. Because I don't think Arriva would be worth an awful lot more than its tangible assets, for the reasons I outlined above. Which might be why it's not selling.

You may well be right, but not for the reasons you have outlined above. The most likely reason is that it is not profitable enough that anybody wishes to purchase it at the price that DB want. (Which will be DB over-valuing the assets and/or the goodwill)? It will be nothing to do with what passengers think of them, which I doubt will be much different to any other large (and some not so large) bus company in the land at the moment, just about all who are struggling with reliability due to crew and management issues.

I think you are making some pretty large assumptions about how the general public (as opposed to enthusiasts) view transport companies - I do not think either Arriva or Avanti West Coast are necessarily viewed quite through your prism.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

It's clearly both. Because I don't think Arriva would be worth an awful lot more than its tangible assets, for the reasons I outlined above. Which might be why it's not selling.

Not really. If you buy a business and goodwill is created, then that sits on the balance sheet as an intangible asset.

Let's just say Company A is desperate to expand its geographic base so it buys Company B for £10m. It's not that well regarded as a company but you're keen to expand so you get £8.0m of assets and £2.0m in goodwill.

However, the economic headwinds and a discovery that it isn't as profitable as you hoped mean that it is just about breaking even. So a few years later, you are keen to sell that bit of business. You've depreciated the tangible assets (now worth £6.5m) yet the best offer you receive is a flat £6.5m for the assets. You could sell for £6.5m but then you have to also record a loss on the balance sheet of £2.0m known as goodwill impairment or an asset writedown. It's why firms hang onto even minimal loss-makers at times.

It isn't about perception of it's intangible worth but what it is on the books at.

I think you are making some pretty large assumptions about how the general public (as opposed to enthusiasts) view transport companies - I do not think either Arriva or Avanti West Coast are necessarily viewed quite through your prism.

Indeed, quite often, passengers have either little choice or little ability to compare so their operator is what they're all like (in their mind).

 

[Man of Kent]

May I point out that with zero private car use and no oil purchase facilities available, municipal electric tramways were profitable enough to subsidise public services?

Except that in the majority of cases, there was no provision for capital expenditure, so when existing equipment expired, many systems shut down. The list of closures from the 1920s onwards is very long indeed.

Franchising i.e. reregulation does seem to be a good middle step to full renationalisation in such a way as to create minimal (but not insignificant) resistance from the private companies, GM does seem to be a good place to start it, from where it can be copied and it does seem to be progressing nicely.

As noted by others, there is significant resistance to funding public transport, and I very much doubt that TfGM will be able to afford everything they wish to deliver in Tranche 1 covering Bolton and Wigan. They are expecting capital funds from central government, but have no plan how to fund any deficit between operating costs and revenue. Passenger numbers are around 20% fewer than when all the franchising financials were agreed, and a change in control is unlikely to reverse this. They are already facing the same issue with the tram system - where passenger loss is more like 30% - and like bus services, it loses any emergency funding in a few weeks' time.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You may well be right, but not for the reasons you have outlined above. The most likely reason is that it is not profitable enough that anybody wishes to purchase it at the price that DB want. (Which will be DB over-valuing the assets and/or the goodwill)? It will be nothing to do with what passengers think of them, which I doubt will be much different to any other large (and some not so large) bus company in the land at the moment, just about all who are struggling with reliability due to crew and management issues.

I think you are making some pretty large assumptions about how the general public (as opposed to enthusiasts) view transport companies - I do not think either Arriva or Avanti West Coast are necessarily viewed quite through your prism.

People can see dirty, tatty, poorly driven buses, and they can see a TOC that can't even run a third of its normal service properly. Neither is talked about nicely by passengers. My "prism" is a bit pickier, but neither company does the basics well, and people aren't stupid and can see that.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

People can see dirty, tatty, poorly driven buses, and they can see a TOC that can't even run a third of its normal service properly. Neither is talked about nicely by passengers. My "prism" is a bit pickier, but neither company does the basics well, and people aren't stupid and can see that.

Those are valid criticisms but it doesn't affect the value of goodwill. The concept of goodwill in accounting terms is not subjective.

You have a view of Arriva based on MK (which is accurate) and I'd say the same for Southern Counties. However, within the UK, that's different depending on the OpCo (yes, Arriva Cymru isn't the exemplar but it's miles better than MK) and then take that to the macro view and the perception of the global business? So whilst 60 odd buses in Buckinghamshire are appalling, it's not the over-riding perception of Arriva.

 

[Surreyman]

Not really. If you buy a business and goodwill is created, then that sits on the balance sheet as an intangible asset.

Let's just say Company A is desperate to expand its geographic base so it buys Company B for £10m. It's not that well regarded as a company but you're keen to expand so you get £8.0m of assets and £2.0m in goodwill.

However, the economic headwinds and a discovery that it isn't as profitable as you hoped mean that it is just about breaking even. So a few years later, you are keen to sell that bit of business. You've depreciated the tangible assets (now worth £6.5m) yet the best offer you receive is a flat £6.5m for the assets. You could sell for £6.5m but then you have to also record a loss on the balance sheet of £2.0m known as goodwill impairment or an asset writedown. It's why firms hang onto even minimal loss-makers at times.

It isn't about perception of it's intangible worth but what it is on the books at.


Indeed, quite often, passengers have either little choice or little ability to compare so their operator is what they're all like (in their mind).

GrandWazoo - my understanding of accountancy is rather more basic than yours, I think you have answered an important question, I have been puzzled for some time why for instance, First South Yorkshires annual accounts have shown a loss for several years (there are other examples around the country), clearly not just a short term 'blip'.
I guess political sensitivities play a part too, however it looks like the looming end of covid support will force operators to make (or at least threaten) service cuts, cynics might say provide an acceptable reason?

 

[RT4038]

People can see dirty, tatty, poorly driven buses,

It has been ever thus, at least back to the 1970s - whether Arriva, Status Group Milton Keynes Citybus, United Counties Omnibus Co. - and what are they comparing it to -the Aylesbury based independent operators? Compared with buses in similar places in the Home Counties? A city built for cars, cars, cars - no real hope of good profits for bus companies.

they can see a TOC that can't even run a third of its normal service properly.

People will grumble, but they aren't stupid. They know that the staff are having a tiff with the management/Government.

In most places in England buses and trains have been unreliable for one reason or the other for the last sixty years (staff shortages, weather, strikes, go-slows, congestion, mechanical/infrastructure faults) - yes, the intensity goes up and down but people are pretty much inured to it, expect it. I'm not sure that individual large operators particularly stand out as being worse than others. Perhaps at a particular time, but not in the round.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It has been ever thus, at least back to the 1970s - whether Arriva, Status Group Milton Keynes Citybus, United Counties Omnibus Co. - and what are they comparing it to -the Aylesbury based independent operators? Compared with buses in similar places in the Home Counties?

I'm not sure they're comparing it to anything. They're just seeing poor standards.

I'd agree that the "Aylesbury triad*" are about the worst bus operators I have ever encounted in the UK, though they don't quite get to the level of UK North, a company which should never have lasted as long as it did - the only bus company where I saw drivers openly smoke cannabis while driving.

* Z&S, Red Rose, Redline (I think there may be others in the "Red" "family" though they come and go and are equally terrible). Z&S is the lesser of the evils though none of them would, in my world, be on the road unless they seriously bucked their ideas up.

A city built for cars, cars, cars - no real hope of good profits for bus companies.

That'd be a reason for routes to be relatively few in number and to concentrate on the areas of lower car ownership (as indeed they do) - but not for the basics to be so bad. That just requires a little bit of pride in what you do. For instance, Travelodges are, by and large, poorly maintained and poorly cleaned by staff who don't give a monkey's, while Ibis Budgets (far more basic) are generally maintained properly. You can do basic/budget without being rubbish. It's cultural.