Sprinter Extinction

[L+Y]

I've posted this in speculation, but no doubt it'll become a real discussion soon enough.

What cascades will be required to remove the 150s from the network: and how soon, realistically, could it be achieved?

Does the whole 15x series need removing, or can some classes stay?

And what does a cascade seeking to, at minimum, eliminate 150s look like?

 

[JonathanH]

One possibility is 150/2s from TfW going to Northern to replace a large number of the 150/1s.

Beyond that it is less clear.

The 150/1 fleet runs mainly on the west side of the Northern operation. I think the challenge would be identifying where Scotrail 170s could be brought in to replace 150s in the easiest way. That could mean 170s on the east displacing 150/2s to oust the 150/1s.

Other cascades could potentially be 175 > 195 > 150.

It remains to be seen whether Northern would want 150s or 156s to go first in the west fleet.

 

[Ken H]

I've posted this in speculation, but no doubt it'll become a real discussion soon enough.

What cascades will be required to remove the 150s from the network: and how soon, realistically, could it be achieved?

Does the whole 15x series need removing, or can some classes stay?

And what does a cascade seeking to, at minimum, eliminate 150s look like?

class 150 first took to the rails 1984 (prototypes) and 1985 (Series production of 150/1)
Modernisation plan DMU's lasted till 2003. (Cl 101)
So don't expect a quick changeover.

 

[Bletchleyite]

TfW have 24 158s which are very, very likely to go to Northern. They've got 26 150/2s, so that could get rid of those.

Send them the 27 175s as well and that's half the /1s gone too. Or send them to GWR (who have 20) and that's theirs plus the HSTs dealt with.

A fairly small top-up order of 195s (which they're allegedly interested in) would allow Northern to get rid of the rest.

TfW's 150s I suspect will go directly for scrap.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Sep 2022 ==

One possibility is 150/2s from TfW going to Northern to replace a large number of the 150/1s.

There's very little point doing that, there isn't much between them in age. I expect TfW's will go directly for scrap, but their 158s will go to Northern or GWR where they will allow some of their 150s to be scrapped.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Sep 2022 ==

It remains to be seen whether Northern would want 150s or 156s to go first in the west fleet.

The upside of 150s is the doors at thirds which allows them to deal with heavy loadings - the only realistic option to replace and keep that is more 195s, I suspect more 195s is quite likely to be honest, or perhaps more intermediate coaches to make them 3 and 4-car sets like the EMUs and reduce doubling up, cheaper as there are no cabs.

 

[JonathanH]

TfW have 24 158s which are very, very likely to go to Northern.

their 158s will go to Northern or GWR where they will allow some of their 150s to be scrapped

Taking out GWR's HSTs is a greater priority than the 150s.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Taking out GWR's HSTs is a greater priority than the 150s.

The GWR HSTs are few in number and can probably be done without anything additional, though 175s and 158s from TfW are options for those. Wasn't the change to the Bedwyn service to become a Newbury EMU (post Lizzie GWR have too many EMUs) and a 2-car DMU shuttle intended to release 5-car 80x to replace them?

 

[JonathanH]

The GWR HSTs are few in number and can probably be done without anything additional, though 175s and 158s from TfW are options for those. Wasn't the change to the Bedwyn service to become a Newbury EMU (post Lizzie GWR have too many EMUs) and a 2-car DMU shuttle intended to release 5-car 80x to replace them?

There are 14 GWR HST sets, with more capacity than 20 150s. Releasing a handful of 80x isn't going to go far in clearing out the HST fleet.

 

[Bletchleyite]

There are 14 HST sets. Releasing a handful of 80x isn't going to go far in clearing out the HST fleet.

How intensively are they used? (XC's are hardly used at all, which is why you could replace the lot with a couple more Voyagers, which is why it's bizarre they aren't actually doing that with the two Avanti ones now sitting unused!)

 

[30907]

Other cascades could potentially be 175 > 195 > 150.

In the various previous 175 threads the issue has been the practicality of training up a new depot's fitters as well as traincrew to maintain and operate a distinctive and relatively small fleet.
The option of operating them out of Chester will be lost with the change of "ownership" there.
Sad, because I very much like them.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

About ten drivers at TfW have all told me they’ve been told Heaton for the 175s, which could shift some 156s down south to replace 150s certainly.

How intensively are they used? (XC's are hardly used at all, which is why you could replace the lot with a couple more Voyagers, which is why it's bizarre they aren't actually doing that with the two Avanti ones now sitting unused!)

More so than XCs without a doubt, but I reckon a slightly reduced timetable on the Cornish Main Line wouldn’t hurt as several Plymouth Penzance trains run about ten minutes after a London Penzance leaves Plymouth.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In the various previous 175 threads the issue has been the practicality of training up a new depot's fitters as well as traincrew to maintain and operate a distinctive and relatively small fleet.

They're basically 15x mechanically, nothing particularly distinctive. In effect an upgraded 156.

 

[tomuk]

One possibility is 150/2s from TfW going to Northern to replace a large number of the 150/1s.

Why would you get rid of 150/1s for 150/2s they are virtually the same age and their relative condition probably varies between fleets rather than between class.

Plus there is the old urban myth that the York 150/2s were built with thinner\Russian steel compared to the Derby 150/1s

 

[BayPaul]

About ten drivers at TfW have all told me they’ve been told Heaton for the 175s, which could shift some 156s down south to replace 150s certainly.


More so than XCs without a doubt, but I reckon a slightly reduced timetable on the Cornish Main Line wouldn’t hurt as several Plymouth Penzance trains run about ten minutes after a London Penzance leaves Plymouth.

My guess is the TfW 158s will be replacing the HSTs. Just about the right number to replace them all with 4 carriage sets

 

[Bletchleyite]

Why would you get rid of 150/1s for 150/2s they are virtually the same age and their relative condition probably varies between fleets rather than between class.

Plus there is the old urban myth that the York 150/2s were built with thinner\Russian steel compared to the Derby 150/1s

They won't. If for no other reason than that Northern likes its consistent interior design and they won't want to pay the cost of that in units that perhaps have five years left if that.

The next source for cascaded units, by the way, will be ScotRail's decarbonisation project, which will release both 158s and 170s in due course (and 153s and 156s, but I'd imagine straight to scrap for those).

 

[JonathanH]

Why would you get rid of 150/1s for 150/2s they are virtually the same age and their relative condition probably varies between fleets rather than between class.

Not wholesale replacement. Thinking more you consolidate the best 150s of either type in one area with the worst ones dropping out the bottom.

 

[skyhigh]

TfW have 24 158s which are very, very likely to go to Northern. They've got 26 150/2s, so that could get rid of those.

If anything they would get rid of the /1s first. In comparison to the /2s they are more of an operational headache with no gangway for revenue protection purposes and lacking some of the other below-the-skin improvements /2s have. The slam doors are also comparatively 'risky' operationally compared to the power doors on the /2s. In reality the worst examples of both fleets are likely to be the first to go.

I suspect more 195s is quite likely to be honest

A fairly small top-up order of 195s (which they're allegedly interested in) would allow Northern to get rid of the rest.

Don't expect to see any more 195s. The plan for hybrid 195s has been binned off (as noted it was 'under review' in the latest Modern Railways but I understand that it's now been decided). Instead, a larger order of bi-mode units to see off all the 15x is now the medium term aim.

 

[tomuk]

They're basically 15x mechanically, nothing particularly distinctive. In effect an upgraded 156.

They don't have westcode 3 step brakes like the earlier sprinters or the 170s

 

[Bletchleyite]

Don't expect to see any more 195s. The plan for hybrid 195s has been binned off (as noted it was 'under review' in the latest Modern Railways but I understand that it's now been decided). Instead, a larger order of bi-mode units to see off all the 15x is now the medium term aim.

Ooh, I like that. About time; Northern has quite a number of routes ideal for bi-modes e.g. Southport, Buxton, the WCML routes etc.

I guess then that anything else that came in e.g. Welsh 158s would be short-term?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Sep 2022 ==

They don't have westcode 3 step brakes like the earlier sprinters or the 170s

Though traditional 2 pipe air brakes are hardly rocket science, they're what almost everything else in the UK other than 15x/170 have.

 

[tbtc]

I don’t understand peoples obsession with cascades

Due to the influx of 156/ 158/ 170s/ EMUs over the years, the Northern 150s tend to only be used on low speed/ relatively short services (our routes where an insignificant proportion of passengers are going to travel from end to end because faster options are available on other services)

What Northern need to replace their 75+ 150s is done fast accelerating trains with wide accessible doors capable of short dwells on lines where there’s an LNER/ XC/ Avanti service bearing down on them

Ideally these replacements would be EMUs but the ambitions to wire lots of “west side” lines had ground to a halt and the only “east side” wiring will make precious little difference to Northern (as they lost the Huddersfield - Leeds stoppers some years ago)

Or lots of swanky new 195s, but I think even the Tories have stopped pretending that “levelling up” is a priority, so I can’t see many brand new trains for Northern

So what are people’s solutions for routes like the CLC or Sheffield to Adwick (which 150s are suited to/ used on)? End door trains capable of 100mph! Don’t get me wrong, I’d rather do a longer faster journey on a 175, but they aren’t the kind of units you’d want on routes with stops every five minutes where there’s no chance of stretching anywhere near top gear

look at how the 170s struggled on local routes like Harrogate stoppers - see how the narrow/end doors on 158s can delay dwells when they are out on local routes - we can’t keep putting middle distance trains on short “sprints”, we need something more suitable,

whether that’s trusting 230s/769s (I’m sceptical) or finding a bi- mode that does work, i don’t know but I wish people would stop suggesting putting fast trains with narrow/ end doors on shorter/ slower routes that need to be nippy and can’t afford long station dwells (just like the compulsion some have to suggest Voyagers replace 170s on certain routes!)

 

[Bletchleyite]

The CLC needs 195s. Meanwhile 195s are used on routes where 158s could be instead, e.g. the Chester.

 

[swt_passenger]

In the various previous 175 threads…

When I read that bit, I thought at first you meant there’d been 175 threads about potential cascades. But the odd thing is I thought that’d be about right…

 

[skyhigh]

Or lots of swanky new 195s, but I think even the Tories have stopped pretending that “levelling up” is a priority, so I can’t see many brand new trains for Northern

There's a balance to be had. The 150s will soon be reaching a point where they need major expenditure to continue - the rust was all removed during extensive works to repair the structure during PRM conversions, but they're already starting to struggle. Look at a 150 fresh off major exam, the number of patches on the roof is indicative of what's required.

And a couple of photos of how much work was needed on the structure the last time round -


The rest of the 15x aren't much better. So really, the equation is patching up and keeping going (which will cost more as the units age) or pay for new replacements. Add in the potential 'sparks' effect of new stock on passenger numbers as well as the environmental benefits of more efficient engines. Yes, it would cost but if you specced a suitable unit and placed a large order for delivery over a staggered period, perhaps with manufactures covering the maintenance side, the cost per unit may not be too unfavourable.

 

[RobShipway]

Isn't GWR replacing their 150's with class 158's being moved west as class 165/166 units replace class 158's on services such a Cardiff - Portsmouth Harbour?

With regards the GWR HST's 12 'Castle' Sets, could it be that the class 175 units replace these?

Not sure how Northern Trains will replace 72 - 2 car 150/1's and 6 3-car 150/0's that they operate. I think that this will not be class 230 as I do not think that there would be enough. How many of the Northern class 150/1's work in pairs? If all 72 class 150/1's work in pair's, then you would need 36 four car trains to replace them. If not, then you need about 72 2-car class 195 units or similar to be replacing the Class 150/1's. I suspect depending on the routes, that the moving of the WMT 17 class 323 units will replace some of the class 150/1 units.

 

[bluenoxid]

Transpennine 185s, Transport for Wales 158s and 175s plus Scotrail 158/170 released by Scottish electrification will help the cascade.

I assume the East Midland 156 fleet will also feature

Next areas to look at would be Northern electrification, South Western Sprinter fleet and Cross Country 170s that are potential targets for cascade.

 

[tbtc]

There's a balance to be had. The 150s will soon be reaching a point where they need major expenditure to continue - the rust was all removed during extensive works to repair the structure during PRM conversions, but they're already starting to struggle. Look at a 150 fresh off major exam, the number of patches on the roof is indicative of what's required. View attachment 120254

And a couple of photos of how much work was needed on the structure the last time round -
View attachment 120256 View attachment 120257

The rest of the 15x aren't much better. So really, the equation is patching up and keeping going (which will cost more as the units age) or pay for new replacements. Add in the potential 'sparks' effect of new stock on passenger numbers as well as the environmental benefits of more efficient engines. Yes, it would cost but if you specced a suitable unit and placed a large order for delivery over a staggered period, perhaps with manufactures covering the maintenance side, the cost per unit may not be too unfavourable.

My initial reaction on seeing those interesting photos was “wait, a 150 has a pool table?” - must be one allocated west of the Pennines since I’ve never seen that near Sheffield… then the penny dropped! They look even more grim “naked” than I feared

More seriously though, you make a good point, I just worry that the current parsimony of the DfT will mean that, if Northern have 75 unreliable old DMUs they’d rather just cut that number of diagrams (as we’ve seen with how quick they were to scrap a significant number of services like Scunthorpe - Doncaster/ Doncaster - Sheffield/ Huddersfield - Castleford and subsequently slow to properly bring them back to what they should be)

At least the TOC model meant there was a contract and a guaranteed minimum level of service (or penalties for failure) but the Government-run Northern and the increasingly interfering DfT seem accountable to nobody and therefore free to swing the axe

What you say sounds logical, it’s just that I can’t see seventy five new DMUs being bought for “the north” (or 50x three coach or thirty something four coach, if that made it more affordable, given that there are a number of services that already get doubled up Sprinters)

Somewhere in Whitehall there’s a map of the country showing which favoured areas get massive fleet replacement/ standardisation and which are expected to pick up the pieces with cascades. The problem is that very little of the stock being cascaded by the likes of Anglia is much use for Sprinter replacement, so the only light at the end of the tunnel that I can see is the three dozen Welsh examples heading over the border so that the Norther ones get used less intensively/ the runts of the litter get scrapped

 

[Chester1]

The CLC needs 195s. Meanwhile 195s are used on routes where 158s could be instead, e.g. the Chester.

The Leeds - Chester service was initially operated by refurbished 158s and would be fine with TfW 158s.

 

[dorsetdesiro]

When and if the GWR 150s do go soon, what could replace them on the Devon & Cornwall branches? Perhaps Vivarail 230s if the Greenford branch line trial is sucessful but won't users be happy going from Pacers to 150s to 230s? 2-car 158s could be the replacement if GWR doesn't go for the 230s.

 

[JonathanH]

Another logical place to get diesel units from is Birmingham if the Snow Hill lines can be electrified. However, the obvious issue there is how far the tentacles of that operation go. It is all very well electrifying Kidderminster to Whitlocks End and Dorridge but going further is less cost effective.

Really, what needs to be identified is how routes can be rationalised across the country to see what small electrification jobs can be done that allow EMUs to replace DMUs, even if that means connecting trains where currently there are through ones.

When and if the GWR 150s do go soon, what could replace them on the Devon & Cornwall branches? Perhaps Vivarail 230s if the Greenford branch line trial is sucessful but won't users be happy going from Pacers to 150s to 230s? 2-car 158s could be the replacement if GWR doesn't go for the 230s.

2-car 158 won't work for Looe or Gunnislake. At one time, it was suggested that battery fitted 466s might be the appropriate replacements but that appears to have gone away.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Really, what needs to be identified is how routes can be rationalised across the country to see what small electrification jobs can be done that allow EMUs to replace DMUs, even if that means connecting trains where currently there are through ones.

While more Ormskirks/Kirkbys are not ideal there are probably places where they wouldn't be entirely stupid. The other thing to watch with considerable interest is the Merseyrail battery units, which could provide an answer for the likes of the outer reaches of an electrified Snow Hill Lines core (and for that matter Buxton, Southport, Barrow (but not the Coast), Windermere etc). OTOH you could wire Windermere, add a second branch platform at Oxenholme and run hourly Manchester Airport to Windermere with Barrow as a timed connection using DMUs (Class 195s will need clearing round the coast at some point, possibly by singling the tight bit).

 

[py_megapixel]

The CLC needs 195s.

No it doesn't. It needs overhead lines!