Storm Jocelyn to cause disruption on Tuesday 23 January and Wednesday 24 January

[bramling]

Safety first means safety first. If the infrastructure isn't up to the job for weather we expect then it isn't safety first it's pound notes first.


Essential Travel Only would be left to passengers to decide if their travel is essential. There are a fair few things wrong with this. The first is clearly the attitude of many passengers, they'll want to travel regardless and will smugly come up with a reason why it's essential for them. But there are other reasons too. If someone has planned a long distance trip to go and see family or have a break for a few days then they'll be reluctant to give it all up and lose the money if the first 40 minutes of their 6 hour journey is by an operator suggesting Essential Travel Only and the rest of the journey is running without any significant issues. Feel free to argue that they're entitled to a refund for not travelling but in reality, many passengers don't know this, and if they do they don't know how to get it, and if they try to ask they'll often be denied this or told incorrectly and will end up with a refund being rejected or being charged an admin fee. Add this to the hotel, theatre tickets and restaurant deposit they'll have no chance of getting back and you can see why their journey may become essential.

This is the problem with the way rail travel has become inflexible. If someone has booked a load of things like hotels and attractions which are non-refundable (another thing which seems to have grown since Covid), the car still offers the flexibility to make the journey earlier - and I know a few people who did exactly this last Sunday knowing the weather was going to turn bad later in the day. Try doing this by rail on an advance ticket and see what happens.

 

[HSTEd]

Only real way to harden the railway against this is to bury it or put it in one of those shelters like the one they deployed on HSL 4 near Antwerp.

Long term that sort of intervention will likely be essential to operate a reliable railway, but it would be astronomically expensive to do it over a line that is already open.

 

[Deepgreen]

No doubt Scotrail will be accused of "throwing in the towel"

It depends on your perspective. Perhaps the new world order will see society pausing every time the weather turns rough. However, given that people will still travel, but are forced to go by road, the overall societal risks worsen greatly.

 

[robbeech]

Try doing this by rail on an advance ticket and see what happens.

Try doing this by rail on any ticket.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

Just need a fleet of snowploughs with chainsaws on the front, problem solved.

Either that, or a 'Dragon tank' (on rails) of a similar type to the one featured in the 1962 James Bond film "Dr. No."

 

[Sealink]

Baring in mind LNER are advising Do not travel north of Newcastle from 1500, I can’t see why they would arrange ticket acceptance, as that encourages people to travel!
The do not travel message is there for a reason! For your safety!

Because they are operating trains north of Newcastle after 3pm? Like the one I am on now

 

[800001]

Because they are operating trains north of Newcastle after 3pm? Like the one I am on now

Never said they were not operating trains!

 

[snookertam]

Ah but you see not in Britain where, as this thread proves, everyone knows better and it must just be some big conspiracy or something. Ultimately, if you tell someone to judge whether their travel is essential, they almost certainly will decide it is.

Here is your handy guide to responding to Network Rail's storm planning:

Storm approaching, railway shut down for safety:
"Wasn't even windy here. No respect for those who need to get around."

Storm approaching, railway kept open, trains stranded (or worse):
"What are Network Rail playing at? No respect for the safety of passengers on the train."

Storm approaching, railway kept open with reduced capacity, trains rammed:
"Can't even run a full service. No respect for the paying passenger."

... Ad nauseum.

This pretty much nails it. Someone always knows better.

 

[30907]

Try doing this by rail on an advance ticket and see what happens.

When you have been told that ticket restrictions have been lifted?

 

[bramling]

When you have been told that ticket restrictions have been lifted?

This tends to work reasonably well when people have already been unable to travel. Doesn’t seem to work so well should people wish to bring their journey forwards.

 

[Taunton]

Who shut down the operations in Scotland? Scotrail or Network Rail?

 

[Angmering1974]

This pretty much nails it. Someone always knows better.

On the flip side: there is always a senior exec who is happy to quote H&S, not think customer-first, take the cheapest option, and slope their shoulders.

 

[Lemmy99uk]

WCML shut north of Carlisle due to flooding.

I’m on a TPE currently between Oxenholme and Penrith. There is an 11 car pendo on platform 2 at Penrith so we at non-stopping via platform 3 to get round it.

 

[londonmidland]

No Avanti West Coast services north of Preston from 15:30. I've noticed there's a later departure advertised to Glasgow Central at 16:41, however that will probably be cancelled. Presumably TPE will be the same.

Your journey may be disrupted if you're travelling today (23 Jan) or tomorrow (24 Jan) due to the severe weather expected from Storm Jocelyn. Services to and from Scotland are finishing much earlier than usual today. Please do not to travel north of Preston after 15:30.

 

[Lemmy99uk]

WCML shut north of Carlisle due to flooding.

I’m on a TPE currently between Oxenholme and Penrith. There is an 11 car pendo on platform 2 at Penrith so we at non-stopping via platform 3 to get round it.

Update - on the move again.

 

[enginedin]

Scientist here (and I collaborate with the met office, professionally) *waves*

I'm frankly astonished by some of the views here. Storm Isha produced gusts of 107 mph in Dundee, and 99 mph in Northumberland, which I think are both the highest wind speeds ever recorded at their respective altitudes in the UK (the highest ever recorded in the UK was 172 mph, on the Cairngorm Plateau).

There was a red weather warning for wind, which is defined as "risk to life". Yes, this was formally 0100-0500 GMT on Monday, but I wouldn't want to have it on my conscience to run anything in the hours either side of that (i.e. the morning rush hour), if anything went wrong. For context, that was only the 3rd red warning this decade.

I've heard (I need to check) that at times overnight into monday morning, winds over some parts of the British Isles were the highest being measured anywhere on the planet. If that is the case, then this would be the first time that has been recorded.

I think it's perfectly reasonable to pause public transport given those conditions, given that the amber warning covered the whole of Scotland for 12 hours

 

[RLBH]

Also, obviously, before storms were named, we didn't have many named storms. And before colour coded warning were introduced, we didn't have any amber and red warnings. The very fact that people perceive there to be more storms these days shows that the purpose of naming them is being achieved!

I noted this when the Met Office started naming winter storms back in 2016 or so. The job I did at the time was significantly impacted by weather, and people completely lost their minds about Storm Anna (or whatever it was). The weather the previous weekend, which was just before the cutoff date for a 'named winter storm', was actually worse, and didn't warrant any mention at all. That's not to say the weather isn't getting worse - it's certainly a lot warmer and wetter than it used to be - but the response to it isn't purely rational either.

From a purely rail point of view, especially post-Carmont, the 'shut everything down' approach is entirely understandable, even to me as an outsider. The rail industry's safety culture is commendable, and we should be aiming for a transport system that has zero fatalities or serious injuries.

The unfortunate fact is, we've built a society where people do believe - rightly or wrongly - that they need to travel, and over longer distances than in even the recent past. Managers might accept 'the train was cancelled' as a reason for missing work once or twice. They won't accept it if it's a week a month for several months. And people won't tolerate being isolated from friends and family on a similar basis.

When the railway is unreliable, people will choose to travel by road. With buses having their own issues, that usually means driving - and someone who's started travelling by car is unlikely to only sometimes use it.

Ultimately, it doesn't really matter whether the railway is shutting down more because the weather is worse, or there's a more risk-averse reaction to the same weather. If the railway wants to be seen as a viable method of transport, it needs to find ways to stay open in all but the absolute worst conditions. I don't know what those are, I'm not in the rail industry. But they need to be found.

 

[LickeyIncliner]

Further to earlier posts about scaremongering newspapers, there's a prime example in this evening's [London] Evening Standard, online: headline

London weather: Rail operator issues 'no travel' warning​

The "no travel warnings" are those already mentioned here - north of Preston and Newcastle.

 

[enginedin]

You may find it hard to believe, but yes I do - as the rest of the UK network did, with very similar weather conditions and with the vast majority of services completing their journey without event.

that is not true - there were absolutely not "very similar" weather conditions in the Home Counties as there were north of the Central Belt.

but why should a wall in danger of collapse at Queen Street stop a train in Aviemore?

Correlation is not causation.

- Queen Street shut because a wall collapsed
- Highland Main Line shut because of a Risk to Life weather warning

 

[jon0844]

Given people seem to die in such storms in their car, or out walking in storms etc, I think it is wise to play safe. Trying to just run things at any cost - almost encouraging people to take risks - is silly.

There are clearly places where severe weather can cause great risk to railway infrastructure - and nobody wants to be stranded on a train with limited access for vehicles to pick them up, taxis, hotels etc.

Sure, maybe there is a level of overreaction in some places but when you have such storms in some places you just need to let Mother Nature win and sit things out.

And if people have planned trips, perhaps we need easier ways to get insurance. Ticketmaster will sell relatively cheap insurance if you can't get to a theatre etc, and maybe people should look into similar cover for hotels.

 

[Bletchleyite]

that is not true - there were absolutely not "very similar" weather conditions in the Home Counties as there were north of the Central Belt.

Having gone from Birmingham International to Bletchley yesterday evening around 1700, it was decidedly unpleasant at BHI but by Northampton it was just a normal manky winter's day.

And if people have planned trips, perhaps we need easier ways to get insurance. Ticketmaster will sell relatively cheap insurance if you can't get to a theatre etc, and maybe people should look into similar cover for hotels.

It does strike me that an annual domestic travel insurance product (including cover for e.g. event tickets up to a specific sum, but also stuff like hotels/taxis if stranded, and the cost of things if a trip is abandoned due to a travel provider issuing a Do Not Travel warning or due to an amber or above weather warning) would be a very useful thing to carry. There's the Trainline policy but it's very basic. Yet basically nobody offers one.

 

[driverd]

I think my main gripe here is its essentially a new thing post covid/Carmont. To shut down services outside of small, isolated areas where there was severe disruption was rare previously.

Essentially 1 of 3 things have changed;
1. The infrastructure has become materially down graded
2. NR/TOCs manning has been reduced to the point they can't cope with disruption
3. NR/TOCs have become more risk adverse to the point they're out of step with both the public generally and competing modes of transport (notably air, who still try, even when the result is your London to Edinburgh flight takes a short layover in Paris).

Working in the industry, I would personally point to a large dose of 3, with sprinkles of 1.

From a purely personal perspective, I think it's such a shame that Scotrail, serving such a wide and broad area of quite often isolated communities, let down their customers so regularly. It really doesn't do much for displaying the resilience of rail when the operator shuts up shop at will. Then there's the green arguments, where between the months of October and February, not only are easyjet cheaper and faster, but they're actually way more likely to get you there.

Carmont aside (which, let's remember, was a landslip - nothing to do with wind), there hasn't been any fatalities or serious injury to those contained within a train due to weather. The risk of serious injury due to a tree strike can be (and across the rest of England and Wales, is) mitigated by blanket ESRs.

For those arguing in the opposite direction - which of the 3 factors would those working in Scotland suggest is the problem that makes Scotland so different in approach to the rest of England and Wales? Let's not forget the lines such as the S&C, HoWL and those throughout Devon can be far more isolated from main roads than say, much of the HML, being shadowed by the A9 for much of its journey.

I'm trying to be balanced here so I'd be interested in a balanced reply - is NR Scotland being too risk averse or is the rest of England getting it wrong?

What has changed so dramatically since pre-Covid that now warrants a nation wide shut down, where air and road can continue?

 

[matthenj]

Having gone from Birmingham International to Bletchley yesterday evening around 1700, it was decidedly unpleasant at BHI but by Northampton it was just a normal manky winter's day.



It does strike me that an annual domestic travel insurance product (including cover for e.g. event tickets up to a specific sum, but also stuff like hotels/taxis if stranded, and the cost of things if a trip is abandoned due to a travel provider issuing a Do Not Travel warning or due to an amber or above weather warning) would be a very useful thing to carry. There's the Trainline policy but it's very basic. Yet basically nobody offers one.

Probably because it's a dead cert it'll pay out at least once, because the railways are so risk averse.

And would they be liable, if they funded a taxi which then got blown off the road, because it was funded despite "Do not travel" warnings? Doubt it, but I've heard of stranger court cases.

Personally, I think the railways need to do better - whatever the cost. There needs to be a plan "what is required to end wind related cancellations by 2030" and we need to crack on with it, and stop wasting time apportioning blame.

Our economy is dependent on people moving about and doing stuff. Stop this, and you kill it, to the loss of everyone in the country.

We cannot keep slowing movement down, or stopping it all together, with minimal justification - whether that be by road train or plane.

 

[RLBH]

And if people have planned trips, perhaps we need easier ways to get insurance. Ticketmaster will sell relatively cheap insurance if you can't get to a theatre etc, and maybe people should look into similar cover for hotels.

I don't think a lack of insurance is the problem for leisure trips. Many don't want the money back for their cancelled trip to the theatre. They want the night out with their friends. If the railway is saying 'Do Not Travel', but the theatre is open, and the roads are open, they're more than likely going to drive.

 

[68000]

is NR Scotland being too risk averse or is the rest of England getting it wrong?

What has changed so dramatically since pre-Covid that now warrants a nation wide shut down, where air and road can continue?

NR Scotland is now too risk averse and that can be attributed to the Carmont and the subsequent prosecution of NR Scotland under Health & Safety law.

HMA v Network Rail Infrastructure Ltd

"Whether the holding of an EWAT would in fact have prevented the accident is impossible to say but opportunities to take appropriate action may have been missed. The risk was not sufficiently assessed, the line was not proved, or shown to be safe, despite the known existence of landslips elsewhere and there was a failure to impose a speed restriction on the line. I need not go onto details about this since it was all explained in the agreed narrative."

 

[HSTEd]

I think my main gripe here is its essentially a new thing post covid/Carmont. To shut down services outside of small, isolated areas where there was severe disruption was rare previously.

Essentially 1 of 3 things have changed;
1. The infrastructure has become materially down graded
2. NR/TOCs manning has been reduced to the point they can't cope with disruption
3. NR/TOCs have become more risk adverse to the point they're out of step with both the public generally and competing modes of transport (notably air, who still try, even when the result is your London to Edinburgh flight takes a short layover in Paris).

Working in the industry, I would personally point to a large dose of 3, with sprinkles of 1.

From a purely personal perspective, I think it's such a shame that Scotrail, serving such a wide and broad area of quite often isolated communities, let down their customers so regularly. It really doesn't do much for displaying the resilience of rail when the operator shuts up shop at will. Then there's the green arguments, where between the months of October and February, not only are easyjet cheaper and faster, but they're actually way more likely to get you there.

Fairly certain it is 3. In the post-coronavirus world especially it is considered much more acceptable to simply pull the plug on the whole shebang so why take the risk when you can press the "shut down everything" button and be safe?
Especially given the comparatively small portion of industry income that actually comes from selling tickets to the public.

Whether this is actually a politically sustainable thing to do in the long run is another question.
There are probably technical solutions that can mitigate many of the risks, for example track brakes, but given the modern railway safety culture I'm not sure anything will undo the damage the response to Carmont has done.

 

[Falcon1200]

If you speak as a controller or planner and feel these events pose an unbearable workload on your grade, perhaps the answer is to re-assess your procedures and staffing levels.

Controllers are only too well aware of the huge workload imposed on them during times of extreme weather but do not have the power to change their staffing levels - No matter how often we raised the issue! Been there, done that.

Sensible things that I've personally been involved with in the past include stepping up managers to support the control functions when bad weather is expected and to mobilise additional standby transport options.

Unless those managers have the same knowledge and experience as Controllers they have to be guided and assisted by the already stretched team - And while such assistance is appreciated it is not necessarily much help, sometimes the opposite in fact. Been there, done that too.

Personally I'm not surprised to see the Highland lines shut, but shutting down, for example, the Glasgow Suburban services does suggest shutting stable doors after the horse has bolted.

Most of the Glasgow suburban network is electrified, and when electric trains keep running during extreme winds it is inevitable that some will become stranded when the overheads come down or are obstructed, often nowhere near a station, requiring staff to attend, detrain passengers and escort them along the track to somewhere they can get onward transport (if such is even available), all this in the face of horrendous weather. Been there, done that also, far too many times.

What has changed so dramatically since pre-Covid that now warrants a nation wide shut down, where air and road can continue?

Carmont - Had I not retired in 2016 I might well have been on duty for that tragedy, and therefore subject to the interrogation, blame and possibly guilt that followed. No surprise that railway managers are no longer prepared to take that risk.

And while road did continue, people were killed in their vehicles. And many flights were diverted away from destination, in some cases even to another country altogether!

 

[Llanigraham]

Interesting conversation this lunchtime with a Highways engineer in relation to wind, rain and trees and roads, which can equally be applied to the railway.
He points out that due to the crazy amount of rain that has fallen on many parts of the country lately the ground is now sodden and waterlogged, and in that state may not provide a stable or strong support for the tree and it's roots. The wind then blows much harder than normal and possibly from a slightly different direction and because the ground has weakened the tree falls over. Plus locally we have the added problem of Ash Die Back which further weakens the trees.

 

[pokemonsuper9]

Trains are skipping Gathurst towards Southport due to flooding, can't find the info anywhere other than journeycheck currently, so the link will become useless after the last train.

Northern JourneyCheck for for journeys from Wigan Wallgate to Gathurst - Train times and live real time delay/cancellation/disruption information.

Northern JourneyCheck provides real time, up-to-date train times and train disruption information keeping you informed about any delays or cancellations on the network and helping you know what to do when your journey is affected. Train Cancellations, Delays, Alterations and Engineering Work...

www.journeycheck.com

Due to heavy rain flooding the railway between Wigan Wallgate and Southport some lines are blocked.
How does it affect your service:
Train services running to and from these stations will be running non stop between Wigan Wallgate and Appley Bridge. Gathurst will not be served. Disruption is expected until the end of the day.
Our advice to our customers:
Due to heavy rain flooding the railway services between Wigan Wallgate and Southport are disrupted.
Network Rail staff are working to rectify the issue.
Effect on service
Train services are unable to call at Gathurst towards Southport.
Services from Gathurst to Wigan Wallgate are not affected.
First services affected.
The 14.52 from Stalybridge to Southport which will not call at Gathurst.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

The wind then blows much harder than normal and possibly from a slightly different direction and because the ground has weakened the tree falls over.

That's a fairly well known phenomenon. The tree roots are usually braced against winds which, to the most part, blow in from a South Westerly direction. When the gusts are from a different direction, such as from the North, over they all go. Wet, sodden earth, trees still in leaf, and surprisingly shallow root systems don't really help either.