Suggested Carlisle - Stirling (Eden Forth) post HS2

[adrock1976]

Every so often, it is mentioned for the former stations at Beattock and Abington to be reopened, which as well as reconnecting the towns of Moffat and Biggar to the railway network, this would also mean that Lockerbie and Carstairs would no longer be the longest distance between them without another station. The trains would run Carlisle - Stirling every 60 minutes, and could be named/advertised as Eden Forth (after the river in Carlisle and the Forth Valley area around Larbert - my own mad thought).

For both Beattock and Abington to reopen, realistically it would be after HS2 happens, either with purpose built new high speed line, or quad track the existing ex Caledonian at least between somewhere south of Beattock to somewhere north of Abington (ideally quad track Lockerbie - Law Junction so as freight trains and the new Carlisle - Stirling does not get in the way of the HS2 trains).

I have based the run times on the Class 397 and compared it with the Azumas that were diverted via Carlisle this week, with both having similar run times. I have tried to have good connections where possible, such as at Carstairs (for Edinburgh - the trains Edinburgh - Glasgow Central via Carstairs seem to be randomly timed rather than a 2 hourly frequency), and Motherwell (for Dalmuir via Glasgow Central Low Level). Connections at Stirling from Inverness, Aberdeen, and Alloa/Dunfermline Queen Margaret (if ever extended that far beyond Alloa) are reasonable southbound, but I could not get them to be no more than 10-15 minutes northbound. At the Carlisle end, this new train would connect into and out of the Birmingham train in both directions. At Cumbernauld Carbrain (Carbrain can be suffixed if the proposed station at Abronhill/Kildrum ever opens, and it also fits with the three letter code CUB), connections to/from Falkirk Grahamston/Grangemouth are around 15-20 minutes.

The only way I could get this to work would be the Beattock - Abington section to be quad tracked so as to join up the three loops at Beattock, the Summit, and Abington together so as to allow other trains to overtake without having to persistently duck and dive into those loops. Also, the end to end journey time is slightly longer than driving via M74/M73/M80/M9 (I used the Automobile Association journey planner Carlisle Station to Stirling Station), but is broadly similar to changing at Edinburgh or via the two Glasgow Stations (remember it is 30 minutes to interchange Queen Street - Central). Also, Carlisle Station - Moffat via M74 is 50 minutes therefore maybe around 10 minutes quicker when factoring in the bus link to Beattock station. Carlisle - Abington by road is over 1 hour, plus 15 minutes to Biggar, where the train and bus link has it broadly similar. Biggar - Motherwell Station via A721 is around 50 minutes, similar to the bus link and train from Abington.

Being as both Beattock and Abington stations are close to the M74, these could also be made into a park and ride facility where buses could link to Moffat and Biggar. Also, at Carstairs, trains would connect into a bus link to and from Lanark. These bus links would be integrated with the railway ticketing system, with the railway specifying the service levels and timetables (some of the SPT supported services have only two journeys in each direction in Biggar and Lanark - early/mid morning and lunchtime/early afternoon, which is a throwback to the Royal Mail Postbus) rather than to the whims of the bus companies.

A few questions I have:

1) Is it better to quad track the section I have outlined in the attached file, or for there to be a new alignment dedicated to the HS2 trains?
2) I have assumed a revised straighter alignment Carstairs South - East Junctions cut off for Carlisle - Edinburgh. Is this still going ahead?
3) I have based this on a 60 minute frequency. Would InterCity East Coast trains diverted via Carlisle still be able to run this way, or would they never be able to if a Carlisle - Stirling service was introduced?
4) I have based the headways on the standard three minutes. Is this enough or does there need to be a greater headway due to freight trains even though I have quad track Beattock - Abington?

 

[The Planner]

For the sake of two stations, you are never getting that level of infrastructure intervention. Carstairs a quicker turnout to Edinburgh, no new alignment and never will. Headway north of Gretna to Carstairs is 4

 

[waverley47]

Every so often, it is mentioned for the former stations at Beattock and Abington to be reopened, which as well as reconnecting the towns of Moffat and Biggar to the railway network, this would also mean that Lockerbie and Carstairs would no longer be the longest distance between them without another station.

Perennial question: does a settlement deserve a station simply because it had one in the past? Of course not, you need to prove real demand from that place. Look at Reston; while in principle more stations are a good thing, if it doesn't really serve a catchment area, and serving it comes at the expense of existing services, then it's probably not a great idea.

Moffat and Beattock between them probably merit a new station between them. Equally, Abington/Leadhills probably deserves a station. It's a big hinterland, lots of small towns, and potentially quick links into the nearest big city, Glasgow.

That doesn't mean that we need to invent a service to serve it.


If you were going to serve these new stations, you'd shove in a Glasgow/Edinburgh to Carlisle stopper. Those are the big cities, that's where people want to go, and you're not inventing a new service with dubious viability to link up Stirling (which, let's face it, is a relatively small, provincial city) to Carlisle (again, another small provincial city.

Who is your market?

If it's people from these reopened stations, then Moffat, Abington and Lockerbie won't fill a 350, and they're just going to change trains to get to Glasgow or Edinburgh anyway. That's not going to pay for the subsidy.

If it's people travelling from south of Carlisle to north of Stirling, ie: Highlands to England, they will just go via Edinburgh. It's a single change, as opposed to changing twice, and Edinburgh has connections to a far wider range of destinations than either Carlisle or Stirling.

There isn't a market for the service, but there might be a market for the stations.

The trains would run Carlisle - Stirling every 60 minutes, and could be named/advertised as Eden Forth (after the river in Carlisle and the Forth Valley area around Larbert - my own mad thought).

The problem is, neither Stirling or Carlisle are the nearest, biggest city. If you were serving Abington and Beattock from new, you'd try and give them links to Edinburgh, Glasgow and Carlisle, or at least two of the three.

So there are two questions here.

1. Should we reopen Abington and Beattock stations?

2. Should we introduce a new service from Carlisle to Stirling, potentially serving these new stations?


The answer to number 1 is maybe, if you could slot in calls on an existing service (there isn't one) or if a service could be created.

The answer to number 2 is definitley not.

For both Beattock and Abington to reopen, realistically it would be after HS2 happens,

You are right to acknowledge there probably aren't the paths for it right now.

To get the paths, it would probably be after wiring the GSW and beefing up the supply on the ECML, to let spread the load of freights across the three lines.

The problem now is that the WCML isn't that great for freight, with two long steep hills; each freight taking twenty minutes to get up the hill is taking three times as long as a passenger, and so you're loosing a lot more than three potential paths.

if you take some freight off the line during the daytime, then you might have some paths.

either with purpose built new high speed line, or quad track the existing ex Caledonian at least between somewhere south of Beattock to somewhere north of Abington (ideally quad track Lockerbie - Law Junction so as freight trains and the new Carlisle - Stirling does not get in the way of the HS2 trains).

We'll get back to this.

I have based the run times on the Class 397 and compared it with the Azumas that were diverted via Carlisle this week, with both having similar run times.

Probably a good idea of performance. A non-stop express can do Beattock in about 6:30 minutes.

The only way I could get this to work would be the Beattock - Abington section to be quad tracked so as to join up the three loops at Beattock, the Summit, and Abington together so as to allow other trains to overtake without having to persistently duck and dive into those loops.

You could probably path another passenger up the northern WCML in each direction today. Remember, there are only a maximum of 4 express in each direction between Carstairs and Gretna (the LNER diversions don't count because they run weekends only) so you might be able to flight another in there.

An express takes between 6.5 and 7 minutes. Leaving Carlisle 4 minutes after the express, and stopping at three stations (Lockerbie, Beattock and Abington) you'd arrive at Carstairs about 15 minutes after the express, losing about 3 minutes per stop.

The next express, leaving Carlisle 25 minutes after the first express, will reach Carstairs 10 minutes after your stopper. This is assuming that both stations have platforms on the fasts, and a fast accelerating unit.

An average freight, with a non stop run, takes about 10 minutes to do the hill. You can path these in-between passengers somewhat without difficulty.

A freight looped at the bottom and the top, will take about 25 minutes stop to stop. These are significantly more difficult to path.



How to solve this problem?

Number 1 solution would be to path a lot of the East Coast Ports - Scotland intermodal freight overnight up the ECML. This is the eventual solution once the ECML supply is beefed up.

Apart from that, you could rejig the timetable to flight the express trains more, but that's only going to give you so much if you're fiddling with long distance paths through Birmingham.

Four tracking isn't going to happen. Too expensive for not much benefit. In thirty years time you might have a new high speed line from Preston to the Central Belt, but that's twenty years off from even reaching a planning stage.


I apologise for the rambling answer, as this was written over an afternoon, but basically, not worth it.

The service you're creating wouldn't attract enough custom to warrant the massive infrastructure intervention to allow it to happen.

The new stations you're suggesting wouldn't want a service from Stirling to Carlisle, nor would that service offer the most benefit. You'd have to slot those calls onto an InterCity, or create a new service to serve them, neither of which offer great value for money.

 

[Bald Rick]

1) Is it better to quad track the section I have outlined in the attached file, or for there to be a new alignment dedicated to the HS2 trains?

I have speculated before about a new line from Abington to Beattock, avoiding the Crawford salient. It would save high speed passenger trains a few minutes, and provide a useful semi-dynamic loop. And it would be cheaper (and much less disruptive) than quadrification.

2) I have assumed a revised straighter alignment Carstairs South - East Junctions cut off for Carlisle - Edinburgh. Is this still going ahead?

no. I don’t think it was ever seriously proposed.