In a post-Covid world where commuting is significantly down, but leisure travel is marginally or substantially up, I’m going to be a contrarian and say that - in time - the First Class product offered by the ex-NSE and regional TOCs may expand and improve.
The imperative to squeeze-in a few more Standard seats to appease season ticket holders will be gone, but there will be relentless pressure to grow revenue (alongside cost cuts), and one way of doing that is to persuade more customers to trade-up to a premium product.
Meanwhile, if you aren’t paying £3k pa to commute to an office, maybe you’d reinvest a small part of the saving in treating the family to an upgrade on that day trip to London or the coast?
If the offer was attractive, surely you could make a reasonable amount of money from leisure-focused First Class on runs like London to Salisbury/Exeter; Bournemouth; Eastbourne and Bicester (for the outlet village). But 2+2 First Class - and minimal enforcement - won’t cut it.