TfGM Bus franchising

[Volvodart]

Who got the other 2 small franchises?

 

[Goldfish62]

Except their role will simply to execute the plans rather than define them - a totally different role

If which GoAhead are brimming over in such experience in various locations.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

If which GoAhead are brimming over in such experience in various locations.

What will Rotala do?

 

[Goldfish62]

What will Rotala do?

Plenty of consultants out there with the right experience...

 

[Andyh82]

Presumably this means the end of Vision Bus in these areas, with just schools and some routes in Bury remaining

 

[domcoop7]

The usual Andy Burnham spin about "London Style" buses, and taking over trains, and introducing this, that, and the other.

But where's the actual detail? (At one point in time, people called "journalists" used to find this stuff out, rather than just re-printing press releases, but hey ho!)

By detail I mean the "trivial" stuff such as:-

• What routes will be running? (they must know, because they've allocated the bus and depot requirement)
• The original consultation plans, back in the day had a year-on-year cut in passenger route miles. What's the effect of this on the ground?
• The existing "socially tendered" routes, many of which shuttle fresh air around, are they staying or going?
• Any agreements on cross-boundary services, such as in Wigan the Arriva Merseyside to / from St Helens and Southport (which service much of the West and South West of the borough); the Witch Way, etc?
• When GMCA (Greater Manchester Combined Authority) created the convoluted "large" and "small" Franchise system, they said they did it specifically to allow small bus companies the chance to stay in the market in a way not possible in London. So why have they allocated almost all of them to one - national - group?

And most importantly:-

• How much is this costing both central government and council tax payers?

On that last point, we know that some of these services were formerly loss-making (from as long ago as when First pulled out). The new contracts guarantee profit to successful bidders, with council tax payers picking up the tab. What's the expected outlay? We also know from the financial results posted up-thread that Rotala are getting £30.1 million for assets with a book value of £22.7 million (good old public sector efficiency shows its face again) and that despite losing the large Franchises, and only retaining seven out of nine small Franchises, they're still only down in revenue by £6 million a year, and will continue to earn £18.7 million just from the small franchises (which unlike under deregulation is guaranteed). You don't need to be an economist to read into the implications of that.

 

[WatcherZero]

The £8m difference as they said in their market statement is because they are buying out then selling assets that are presently under hire purchase and so freeing themselves from £8m in interest payment liabilities that would have been due on those assets.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Plenty of consultants out there with the right experience...

I was being tongue in cheek but even so, not a cheap solution

Presumably this means the end of Vision Bus in these areas, with just schools and some routes in Bury remaining

So Vision didn't get the other two small franchises?

 

[WatcherZero]

No announcement on the other two of nine small franchises but one of them had only a single bidder (Go-Ahead) and I seem to remember one of the tendering rules was Large franchise operators couldn't operate the small franchises. They may still be in negotiations or they might be retendered.

 

[Leedsbusman]

No announcement on the other two of nine small franchises but one of them had only a single bidder (Go-Ahead) and I seem to remember one of the tendering rules was Large franchise operators couldn't operate the small franchises. They may still be in negotiations or they might be retendered.

No such restriction - other than the fact you can’t run a small franchise from a large franchise depot. The report on who bid was a bit open to interpretation with a suggestion of 9 bidders, 8 who bid for the large, 2 who bid for eight of the small ones and 1 who bid for one small only.

It maybe the other two are with smaller firms who haven’t yet signed the contract or maybe are waiting for the schools awards.

 

[47550]

Are there restrictions on market share when all the franchises are let as there are in London where (I think) no operator can have more than 25% market share ? In which case would pretty much rule out Go Ahead from any of the other franchises.

 

[johncrossley]

• What routes will be running? (they must know, because they've allocated the bus and depot requirement)

The list of routes to be run by Rotala from Eccles has been leaked on Facebook

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Salford: 29, 65, 66, 70, 74, 75, 79
Wigan East: 126, 132, 634, 980
Farnworth-Blackrod: 129, 521
Bolton North: 507, 525, 526, 527, 533, 535, 537, 541, 544, 907, 925
Bury-Farnworth: 511, 512, 513, 577, 916
Leigh-Atherton: 516, 583, 584, 588, 590, 594, 596, 597, 984
Bolton South: 559, 573, 574, 915

X50, 150, 254, 370 and 371 on tender to TfGM until 2025 on the same basis as today

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Who will be running the 582 bus service that goes through Over Hulton, as that does not appear in the Rotala list above.

 

[johncrossley]

Who will be running the 582 bus service that goes through Over Hulton, as that does not appear in the Rotala list above.

That will be a Go North West route. It is clearly evident from both the text and the quoted list that major routes such as the 582 will not be run by Rotala.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

That will be a Go North West route. It is clearly evident from both the text and the quoted list that major routes such as the 582 will not be run by Rotala.

Thanks for that. I will have to stop listening to neighbour's gossip and ask them to address their queries to TfGM and not to me. More fool me for pandering to their wishes, even at Christmas time...

 

[Mathew S]

The usual Andy Burnham spin about "London Style" buses, and taking over trains, and introducing this, that, and the other.

But where's the actual detail? (At one point in time, people called "journalists" used to find this stuff out, rather than just re-printing press releases, but hey ho!)

By detail I mean the "trivial" stuff such as:-

• What routes will be running? (they must know, because they've allocated the bus and depot requirement)
• The original consultation plans, back in the day had a year-on-year cut in passenger route miles. What's the effect of this on the ground?
• The existing "socially tendered" routes, many of which shuttle fresh air around, are they staying or going?
• Any agreements on cross-boundary services, such as in Wigan the Arriva Merseyside to / from St Helens and Southport (which service much of the West and South West of the borough); the Witch Way, etc?
• When GMCA (Greater Manchester Combined Authority) created the convoluted "large" and "small" Franchise system, they said they did it specifically to allow small bus companies the chance to stay in the market in a way not possible in London. So why have they allocated almost all of them to one - national - group?

And most importantly:-

• How much is this costing both central government and council tax payers?

On that last point, we know that some of these services were formerly loss-making (from as long ago as when First pulled out). The new contracts guarantee profit to successful bidders, with council tax payers picking up the tab. What's the expected outlay? We also know from the financial results posted up-thread that Rotala are getting £30.1 million for assets with a book value of £22.7 million (good old public sector efficiency shows its face again) and that despite losing the large Franchises, and only retaining seven out of nine small Franchises, they're still only down in revenue by £6 million a year, and will continue to earn £18.7 million just from the small franchises (which unlike under deregulation is guaranteed). You don't need to be an economist to read into the implications of that.

A lot of the detail is yet to be finally confirmed in any public documents, as far as I'm aware.

As for journalists; certainly when I worked in Manchester, the portions of the relevant council meetings were exclusive of the public & journalists on grounds of commercial sensitivity so there was always very, very little to report.

You'll also find that the 'better' local media - significantly the MEN - are very much in favour of franchising for the improved local accountability and the service improvements, so any cost is seen as being worth spending. More importantly, this was also the outcome of the many, many, many hours of incredibly detailed public consultation that was carried out independently by Ipsos.

I have seen the original (pre-COVID) and the post-pandemic business cases. From memory - it's been over two years - both concluded that subsidy would remain at a similar level to under the current system in all but the most pessimistic of usage scenarios but that extra spending would be required to bring in positive changes (i.e., 'proper' contactless, integration, local concessions, capping, etc.). Again, in the consultations - where members of the public were subjected to whole day presentations on the business and financial cases - the outcome was overwhelmingly in favour of the planned spending to make the proposed changes.

 

[Goldfish62]

Are there restrictions on market share when all the franchises are let as there are in London where (I think) no operator can have more than 25% market share ? In which case would pretty much rule out Go Ahead from any of the other franchises.

That 25% in London always has been an urban myth. It was a notional figure applied by LT/TfL at one time to try to prevent market dominance. With the pull out and merger of several operators over time that's become increasingly impractical. GoAhead London currently has more than 25% market share.

 

[RELL6L]

So - with apologies that I have not reread all 1,367 previous posts- what is the plan?

Will all routes be run initially to current frequencies or will there be immediate improvements?

Will Go NW take on everything Diamond and Arriva run from Bolton apart from anything on the list above, and everything Stagecoach run from Wigan? What about Vantage- is that part of this package?

Will routes run from outside GM and running in, eg 125, 1 into Bolton and routes into Wigan and Leigh from the west and north eg Stagecoach 111, Arriva 360, 320, 375/385, 34, Warrington 19/28 to mention just a few, be unaffected?

 

[Leedsbusman]

So - with apologies that I have not reread all 1,367 previous posts- what is the plan?

Will all routes be run initially to current frequencies or will there be immediate improvements?

Will Go NW take on everything Diamond and Arriva run from Bolton apart from anything on the list above, and everything Stagecoach run from Wigan? What about Vantage- is that part of this package?

Will routes run from outside GM and running in, eg 125, 1 into Bolton and routes into Wigan and Leigh from the west and north eg Stagecoach 111, Arriva 360, 320, 375/385, 34, Warrington 19/28 to mention just a few, be unaffected?

I’m sure the detail will be revealed nearer the time but as far as I know the operations of Wigan and Bolton depots are largely the same other than Wigan taking on 362 from Arriva and 635 from Diamond, with Bolton also taking on Vantage. There’s a list of routes which form most of the small franchises above - we don’t know who has the other two yet. I think the intention is to continue at the 2021 frequencies - ie before any driver shortage related reductions kicked in.
Cross boundary services operates from depots outside Greater Manchester will continue under a permit scheme - similar to that used in London. Eg Stagecoach 125 into Bolton will continue with them.

 

[158756]

No such restriction - other than the fact you can’t run a small franchise from a large franchise depot. The report on who bid was a bit open to interpretation with a suggestion of 9 bidders, 8 who bid for the large, 2 who bid for eight of the small ones and 1 who bid for one small only.

It maybe the other two are with smaller firms who haven’t yet signed the contract or maybe are waiting for the schools awards.

Is that two bidders who only put in bids for the small franchises, or did the small franchises only attract two bids?

I'm struggling to see the value of the small contracts. Diamond are going to operate less than 100 buses on seven contracts - at that sort of size no major operator is going to want just one or two contracts, it's going to be all or nothing, so why not just let them as one big contract if the small operators aren't going to win anything anyway?

And if Diamond hadn't won, which depot would the winner have used? Would TfGM have provided a depot or would the operator have to buy their own? Do Diamond have a big advantage over any other bidders because they own a depot TfGM don't want?

 

[johncrossley]

Is that two bidders who only put in bids for the small franchises, or did the small franchises only attract two bids?

I'm struggling to see the value of the small contracts. Diamond are going to operate less than 100 buses on seven contracts - at that sort of size no major operator is going to want just one or two contracts, it's going to be all or nothing, so why not just let them as one big contract if the small operators aren't going to win anything anyway?

And if Diamond hadn't won, which depot would the winner have used? Would TfGM have provided a depot or would the operator have to buy their own? Do Diamond have a big advantage over any other bidders because they own a depot TfGM don't want?

I don't see how the tendering of the small packages of routes is much different to tendering as it has been done since 1986. Why can't small operators win anything? Small operators sometimes win tenders. Presumably Vision put in bids for some of those seven packages of routes but failed to win. No company is guaranteed to win any tender.

 

[Simon75]

Bolton has 2 depots (Diamond and Arriva), will both be owned by Transport for Greater Manchester?



* my apologies for any misunderstanding

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I don't see how the tendering of the small packages of routes is much different to tendering as it has been done since 1986. Why can't small operators win anything? Small operators sometimes win tenders. Presumably Vision put in bids for some of those seven packages of routes but failed to win. No company is guaranteed to win any tender.

I bet that Jim Stones was glad he gave up the business when he decided to retire.

 

[GusB]

I bet that Jim Stones was glad he gave up the business when he decided to retire.

Would you kindly explain to the rest of the forum who Jim Stones is, and what business did he give up upon retirement? It's a rather cryptic post, otherwise.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Would you kindly explain to the rest of the forum who Jim Stones is, and what business did he give up upon retirement? It's a rather cryptic post, otherwise.

I am surprised that the firm of Jim Stones Coaches who ran quite a few of the routes in the Leigh area (which is included in the Wigan region of the current franchise let) is so little known on this website!!

Maybe there are other contributors to this thread who can certainly expand your knowledge

 

[daodao]

Would you kindly explain to the rest of the forum who Jim Stones is, and what business did he give up upon retirement? It's a rather cryptic post, otherwise.

Jim Stones Coaches was a small bus operator that ran a number of commercial and supported routes on behalf of Transport for Greater Manchester in Leigh, Greater Manchester (which is within the area where the franchises have just been awarded). The proprietor Jim Stones decided to retire in early 2020 and his bus company ceased operations on 18th April 2020.

 

[GusB]

Jim Stones Coaches was a small bus operator that ran a number of commercial and supported routes on behalf of Transport for Greater Manchester in Leigh, Greater Manchester (which is within the area where the franchises have just been awarded). The proprietor Jim Stones decided to retire in early 2020 and his bus company ceased operations on 18th April 2020.

Thank you for clarifying.

I am surprised that the firm of Jim Stones Coaches who ran quite a few of the routes in the Leigh area (which is included in the Wigan region of the current franchise let) is so little known on this website!!

Maybe there are other contributors to this thread who can certainly expand your knowledge

If the company concerned ceased operations in 2020, it's outwith the scope of this thread.

 

[markymark2000]

significantly the MEN - are very much in favour of franchising for the improved local accountability and the service improvements, so any cost is seen as being worth spending.

The MEN (Manchester Evening News) is more of an Andy Burnham fan club though. Not proper journalism. Never seen such a biased newspaper as well. The amount of facts which got missed out by then during the consultations was amazing. Pure and blatant lies. Burnham is still peddling the same lies now (claiming no multi modal ticket exists yet System One has existed for years) .

More importantly, this was also the outcome of the many, many, many hours of incredibly detailed public consultation that was carried out independently by Ipsos.

Again, in the consultations - where members of the public were subjected to whole day presentations on the business and financial cases - the outcome was overwhelmingly in favour of the planned spending to make the proposed changes.

I take it you mean the biased consultations which told you how to answer? Consultations aimed purely at people who wanted franchising.
Anyone who disagreed, it was made extremely difficult for you to pick answers. The consultations while maybe 'carried out independently', the questions weren't decided independently. It was biased all the way. To the extent that it should have been subject to more legal action. It was as good as saying, "do you agree, Strongly Agree, mostly agree, agree, maybe agree, neutral, comments box" it was a shambles of a consultation that should never have seen the light of day in that format.

I mean, how many people red the facts that the plan is to reduce mileage at the start? Notice how that didn't get mentioned in ANY of the press or questions. Because it's biased. Only the positives got focused on and if you didn't agree, and voiced that on Twitter, he got minions to harass you labelling you a Tory and all that stuff.


In short yeah, "great journalism" and consultations. Extremely left leaning newspaper believes he is god and can do no wrong, combined with a biased consultation aimed to back up his plans with limited ways to oppose it.

 

[Goldfish62]

I bet that Jim Stones was glad he gave up the business when he decided to retire.

From what I understand, while he was looking to retire his decision was reinforced by what is currently playing out.

 

[Leedsbusman]

Bolton has 2 depots (Diamond and Arriva), will both be owned by Transport for Greater Manchester?



* my apologies for any misunderstanding

No they will only own the one currently used by Diamond which will now be used by Go Ahead.

Is that two bidders who only put in bids for the small franchises, or did the small franchises only attract two bids?

I'm struggling to see the value of the small contracts. Diamond are going to operate less than 100 buses on seven contracts - at that sort of size no major operator is going to want just one or two contracts, it's going to be all or nothing, so why not just let them as one big contract if the small operators aren't going to win anything anyway?

And if Diamond hadn't won, which depot would the winner have used? Would TfGM have provided a depot or would the operator have to buy their own? Do Diamond have a big advantage over any other bidders because they own a depot TfGM don't want?

Well it was said 9 bidders submitted 33 bids for 11 franchises.

Eight companies bid for both the large franchises in Wigan and Bolton (16) two companies bid for all except one of the small franchises (16) with a further one company bidding for one small franchise (1).

All this suggests that it’s a smaller company which bid for the small franchises not yet announced as by process of elimination it’s not one of the eight who bid for large ones.

I wouldn’t be surprised if smaller firms have been put off by the bidding process - any operator can bid but you need to provide your own depot. Not a huge barrier as there are many smaller firms around GM mainly on schools work who could qualify should they do wish.