TfGM Tranche 3 speculation

[Leyland Bus]

Hoping this is okay to be posted here, the speculative folder looks to be all rail orientated.

Given there's so much chatter and no one really knows what's going to happen until March, I thought it might be fun (and abit healthier) to have some speculation over who will win what in the last round of Manchester franchising.

Working within the Bee Network I hear some good rumours but I'll start the ball rolling with my own thoughts on the large depots...

Hyde Road - FirstBus
Sharston - Stagecoach keep
Stockport - Go-Ahead
Wythenshawe - FirstBus

What does everyone else think and any thoughts on the smaller ones? Are there any surprises to be had??

Enjoy!

 

[andrewbowden]

RATP or ComfortDelGro will jump in and take one of the big franchises using their experiences of the London market.
Or, far more likely, it will be split between First, Stagecoach and Go-Ahead in some combination.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Not speculation per se, but more a musing...

The dereg world had Stagecoach as the dominant operator, with Rotala next. Then you had First Bus and Go Ahead as sizeable one depot operators, with smaller peripheral operations from Arriva and Transdev plus a few indies such as Vision Bus and Stotts. If you were to be right, Stagecoach and Go Ahead would be dominant, with First Bus and Rotala as smaller players and not much else (save Vision etc on schools).

Of course, public sector procurement precludes skewing of tender scoring (! - quality and commercial) but wonder how it looks if you have no new players and, in fact, have fewer firms involved?

 

[Tim33160]

These are the Tranche C routes allocated to contracts. Announcement said to be the same day as Tranche B starts: Sun 24 March 2024 for implementation Sunday 5 January 2025. Note some routes have changed since the contracts went out to tender - eg the Wythenshawe Large and Trafford Small regarding exLittle Gem minibus routes

AREA C	January 2025	School routes
Hyde Road Large	15 38 42 42A 42B 42C 74 76 142 147 201 202 203 205 250 253 256	706 724 727 748 749 749 757 778 797 802 818 821 827 834 844 845 847 850 857 863 877 878 891
Sharston Large	43 50 85 86 101 102 111 143	700 720 728 743 750 750 751 751 752 753 756 757 758 758 763 764 765 766 769 770 771 773 776 781 782 782 786 789 792 798 799 811 815 847 852 866 874 724
Stockport Large	11 23 25 191 192 197 314 322 323 325 327 328 330 358 374 378 384
Tameside Large	7 216 217 219 221 230 231 237 336 346	701 703 704 719 720 721 725 747 747 768 747
Wythenshawe Large	18 19 150 245 247 263 281 282 284 286 287 313 368 370
Stockport Small	364 364 375
Tameside A Small	335 339 341 342 345 387 396
Tameside B Small	343 356
Trafford Small	44 84 254 260 261 262 280 288

 

[WatcherZero]

I dont think you can really predict who will win, depends on the strength of bids and its already been demonstrated there isnt a home advantage.

 

[northwichcat]

Interesting that there's a 288 route included. That seems to suggest, for the third time, it'll mean Altrincham to Manchester Airport becomes a stand-alone service, meaning any cross-Altrincham journeys will require a change. IIRC it became a shuttle when Arriva withdrew part of a route. Then it got joined on to the Altrincham to East Didsbury service under D&G, before becoming separate under Little Gem. Now it's currently a through route from Manchester Airport to Warrington.

 

[Leyland Bus]

I dont think you can really predict who will win, depends on the strength of bids and its already been demonstrated there isnt a home advantage.

It's not really about predicting anything, more abit of a fun topic to while the time away...

RATP or ComfortDelGro will jump in and take one of the big franchises using their experiences of the London market.
Or, far more likely, it will be split between First, Stagecoach and Go-Ahead in some combination.

It was never known if they bid for any of the last two tranches, so if they did get sth this time around, it may well put the cat amongst the pigeons

 

[WatcherZero]

Yeah I didnt mean you shouldnt guess, just that there was no way of making an informed guess, you might as well roll dice to decide.

 

[Geeves]

When I suggested First getting one of the Southern depots on the Bee Network Facebook page I was laughed at, I dont see why they would not put a bid in, First are in the business of making money and it would do just that. I cant see Go Ahead getting anymore depots

 

[andrewbowden]

When I suggested First getting one of the Southern depots on the Bee Network Facebook page I was laughed at, I dont see why they would not put a bid in, First are in the business of making money and it would do just that. I cant see Go Ahead getting anymore depots

First just felt like a company in retreat having sold up most of their Manchester operations and everything in London. Didn't seem like they were interested in franchises at all. But then they got Rochdale.

But Rochdale is a small so maybe they'll go down that route and try and get the Tameside and Stockport smalls.

Who knows!

It was never known if they bid for any of the last two tranches, so if they did get sth this time around, it may well put the cat amongst the pigeons

What would do that big style would be arriva getting one!

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

When I suggested First getting one of the Southern depots on the Bee Network Facebook page I was laughed at, I dont see why they would not put a bid in, First are in the business of making money and it would do just that. I cant see Go Ahead getting anymore depots

Depends - if Go Ahead submit the best commercial and technical response, then they might. Same with any other major player.

First just felt like a company in retreat having sold up most of their Manchester operations and everything in London. Didn't seem like they were interested in franchises at all. But then they got Rochdale.

But Rochdale is a small so maybe they'll go down that route and try and get the Tameside and Stockport smalls.

Who knows!

First selling London was over TEN years ago. At that time, they needed funds to pay for DDA compliant vehicles and also had to have a rights issue that then destroyed their share price. Very, very different to now.

Flogging their Manchester operations was an admission of defeat. They'd mismanaged the business really since buying it, not having a robust fleet replacement plan, and then not being able to stop encroachment on their business, failure to cope with Metrolink expansion and, as we saw with Go Ahead at Queens Road, not facing into long standing issues in relation to costs.

In the meantime, they've managed to jettison the US business, got out of some onerous contracts in rail (thanks to Covid really) and also disposed of the worst performing operations in the main (though watch that space in the post Covid world). They'd be able to cope with a large depot win (or more) - depends how well they put their bid in.

 

[Leyland Bus]

Depends - if Go Ahead submit the best commercial and technical response, then they might. Same with any other major player.

First selling London was over TEN years ago. At that time, they needed funds to pay for DDA compliant vehicles and also had to have a rights issue that then destroyed their share price. Very, very different to now.

Flogging their Manchester operations was an admission of defeat. They'd mismanaged the business really since buying it, not having a robust fleet replacement plan, and then not being able to stop encroachment on their business, failure to cope with Metrolink expansion and, as we saw with Go Ahead at Queens Road, not facing into long standing issues in relation to costs.

In the meantime, they've managed to jettison the US business, got out of some onerous contracts in rail (thanks to Covid really) and also disposed of the worst performing operations in the main (though watch that space in the post Covid world). They'd be able to cope with a large depot win (or more) - depends how well they put their bid in.

This I'd agree with... There were rumblings later on from different management on how the whole Manchester saga had panned out and that they couldn't understand how they'd messed it up so badly or that they'd actually got rid of it for frankly a pittance...

I can definitely see Go Ahead getting another depot...

 

[Redmike]

The 313 and 368 are both Daw Bank routes. I wonder why they would switch to Wythenshawe.

 

[Djb1]

The 313 and 368 are both Daw Bank routes. I wonder why they would switch to Wythenshawe.

Presumably related to either future depot space in Stockport? Or to limit the size of the Stockport section. Both can easily be run from Wythenshawe given their outer termini being Wyth / airport.

 

[D9006]

These are the Tranche C routes allocated to contracts. Announcement said to be the same day as Tranche B starts: Sun 24 March 2024 for implementation Sunday 5 January 2025. Note some routes have changed since the contracts went out to tender - eg the Wythenshawe Large and Trafford Small regarding exLittle Gem minibus routes

AREA C	January 2025	School routes
Hyde Road Large	15 38 42 42A 42B 42C 74 76 142 147 201 202 203 205 250 253 256	706 724 727 748 749 749 757 778 797 802 818 821 827 834 844 845 847 850 857 863 877 878 891
Sharston Large	43 50 85 86 101 102 111 143	700 720 728 743 750 750 751 751 752 753 756 757 758 758 763 764 765 766 769 770 771 773 776 781 782 782 786 789 792 798 799 811 815 847 852 866 874 724
Stockport Large	11 23 25 191 192 197 314 322 323 325 327 328 330 358 374 378 384
Tameside Large	7 216 217 219 221 230 231 237 336 346	701 703 704 719 720 721 725 747 747 768 747
Wythenshawe Large	18 19 150 245 247 263 281 282 284 286 287 313 368 370
Stockport Small	364 364 375
Tameside A Small	335 339 341 342 345 387 396
Tameside B Small	343 356
Trafford Small	44 84 254 260 261 262 280 288

Diamond to get a small franchise, most likely Trafford small.

It's not really about predicting anything, more abit of a fun topic to while the time away...


It was never known if they bid for any of the last two tranches, so if they did get sth this time around, it may well put the cat amongst the pigeons

They didn’t bid for the 1st tranche; it had a very small interest, hence only 2 operators cleaned up. Even Diamond won more than allowed and it had to be awarded to Go Ahead, as they were the 2nd placed bidder plus the last placed bidder.

 

[Redmike]

Presumably related to either future depot space in Stockport? Or to limit the size of the Stockport section. Both can easily be run from Wythenshawe given their outer termini being Wyth / airport.

Yes that's true. I think the 11 would be a better bet from Wythenshawe if they needed to move a route from Stockport.

 

[bussnapperwm]

To be fair, I'd love to see Transport UK or Mobico gain a large franchise, get a foot in the door

 

[busesrusuk]

RATP or ComfortDelGro will jump in and take one of the big franchises using their experiences of the London market.
Or, far more likely, it will be split between First, Stagecoach and Go-Ahead in some combination.

RATP would be a surprise. they are struggling with their London operation and threatening to walk away. It would appear that they put in "optimistic" bids on many routes and have started to trigger early break clauses on contracts resulting in large amounts of work going out to tender again - presumably in the hope that they can retain the work on better terms than previously secured.

I suspect most management attention is directed towards getting the London operation on an even keel; bidding in Manchester would be a big commitment soaking up significant management time assuming they are actually interesting in maintaining a presence in the UK.

Despite all this, they do say that stranger things have happened(!).

Comfort Delgro is an outside possibility I suppose. I suspect Go Ahead will be keen to secure something to replace the significant loss of Queens Road.

 

[Simon75]

Would Blazefield (Transdev) be interested?

 

[WatcherZero]

Diamond to get a small franchise, most likely Trafford small.


They didn’t bid for the 1st tranche; it had a very small interest, hence only 2 operators cleaned up. Even Diamond won more than allowed and it had to be awarded to Go Ahead, as they were the 2nd placed bidder plus the last placed bidder.

There were 8 bidders for all the large (2) and multiple bidders for all the small franchises (9) tendered in the first tranche apart from one small that had one bid and one small (consisting of just two routes) that got zero bids. There was loads of interest and heavily fought hence the contracts coming in 10% below the forecast price in the Bee Network budget.

 

[Leedsbusman]

There were 8 bidders for all the large (2) and multiple bidders for all the small franchises (9) tendered in the first tranche apart from one small that had one bid and one small (consisting of just two routes) that got zero bids. There was loads of interest and heavily fought hence the contracts coming in 10% below the forecast price in the Bee Network budget.

According to the award notice on bid stats there were only one or two bids on each small franchise in Tranche 1.

Greater Manchester Bus Franchising - Passport Process [Award]

In accordance with the provisions of the Transport Act 2000 (as amended by the Bus Services Act 2017... A Contract Award Notice by Greater Manchester Combined Authority. Value £475M-£500M.

bidstats.uk

Award Detail​

1	Go Ahead Group (Wilmslow) Tranche 1 Bolton Large Reference: dn561804 Num offers: 8 Value: £275,000,000.0-£300,000,000
2	Go Ahead Group (Wilmslow) Tranche 1 Wigan Large Reference: dn561804 Num offers: 8 Value: £130,000,000.0-£135,000,000
3	Rotala (West Midlands) Tranche 1 Bolton North Small Reference: dn561804 Num offers: 2 Value: £9,000,000.0-£10,700,000
4	Rotala (West Midlands) Bolton South Small Reference: dn561804 Num offers: 2 Value: £6,000,000.0-£6,700,000
5	Rotala (West Midlands) Bury Farnworth Small Reference: dn561804 Num offers: 2 Value: £6,300,000.0-£7,400,000
6	Rotala (West Midlands) Salford Small Reference: dn561804 Num offers: 1 Value: £12,000,000.0-£14,000,000
7	Rotala (West Midlands) Leigh Atherton Reference: dn561804 Num offers: 2 Value: £8,250,000.0-£9,500,000
8	Rotala (West Midlands) Farnworth Blackrod Reference: dn561804 Num offers: 2 Value: £8,500,000.0-£9,000,000
9	Rotala (West Midlands) Wigan East Reference: dn561804 Num offers: 2 Value: £6,000,000.0-£6,700,000

 

[D9006]

There were 8 bidders for all the large (2) and multiple bidders for all the small franchises (9) tendered in the first tranche apart from one small that had one bid and one small (consisting of just two routes) that got zero bids. There was loads of interest and heavily fought hence the contracts coming in 10% below the forecast price in the Bee Network budget.

Sorry, I would have to disagree with those numbers from information I was privy to. But will have to leave that there.

 

[WatcherZero]

According to the award notice on bid stats there were only one or two bids on each small franchise in Tranche 1.

Yep those are the awards, there were two further small franchises tendered that wernt awarded. One that got zero bids and was folded into the Wigan large and the other got two bids but neither were thought to be competitive enough so was directly negotiated.

 

[D9006]

Looking at the price of the awards, these are very low. No wonder the bids I submitted didn’t get a look in. I can't see how over 5 years how they are going to run them, with fines that can be imposed on operators too. Traffic is not an excuse, operators had to have plans in place to react to this.

 

[northwichcat]

According to the award notice on bid stats there were only one or two bids on each small franchise in Tranche 1.

Greater Manchester Bus Franchising - Passport Process [Award]

In accordance with the provisions of the Transport Act 2000 (as amended by the Bus Services Act 2017... A Contract Award Notice by Greater Manchester Combined Authority. Value £475M-£500M.

bidstats.uk

Award Detail​

1	Go Ahead Group (Wilmslow) Tranche 1 Bolton Large Reference: dn561804 Num offers: 8 Value: £275,000,000.0-£300,000,000
2	Go Ahead Group (Wilmslow) Tranche 1 Wigan Large Reference: dn561804 Num offers: 8 Value: £130,000,000.0-£135,000,000
3	Rotala (West Midlands) Tranche 1 Bolton North Small Reference: dn561804 Num offers: 2 Value: £9,000,000.0-£10,700,000
4	Rotala (West Midlands) Bolton South Small Reference: dn561804 Num offers: 2 Value: £6,000,000.0-£6,700,000
5	Rotala (West Midlands) Bury Farnworth Small Reference: dn561804 Num offers: 2 Value: £6,300,000.0-£7,400,000
6	Rotala (West Midlands) Salford Small Reference: dn561804 Num offers: 1 Value: £12,000,000.0-£14,000,000
7	Rotala (West Midlands) Leigh Atherton Reference: dn561804 Num offers: 2 Value: £8,250,000.0-£9,500,000
8	Rotala (West Midlands) Farnworth Blackrod Reference: dn561804 Num offers: 2 Value: £8,500,000.0-£9,000,000
9	Rotala (West Midlands) Wigan East Reference: dn561804 Num offers: 2 Value: £6,000,000.0-£6,700,000

I think the Wilmslow reference to Go Ahead Group is incorrect information pulled by a bot. Their privacy policy mentions the ICO's address and that website seems to have pulled that as Go Ahead's address!

 

[Mwanesh]

Is that £275 million or is it a typing error?

 

[northwichcat]

Is that £275 million or is it a typing error?

"Large Franchises will have a peak vehicle requirement of a minimum of 34 up to circa 200 buses. In the long-term Large Franchises will have a minimum term of five years, with an option to extend by two years.

Small Franchises will typically have a peak vehicle requirement of up to 33 buses and will have a minimum term of three years and a maximum term of five years."

So £275m could be £275,000 per vehicle operated each year.

 

[Tim33160]

Similar contract figures for Tranche Two results
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2023/W43/809435516

1	Greater Manchester Buses South (Manchester) Middleton large franchise. Reference: dn580722 Num offers: 7 Value: £55,600,000.0-£81,000,000
2	Greater Manchester Buses South (Manchester) Oldham large franchise. Reference: dn580722 Num offers: 6 Value: £184,000,000.0-£223,000,000
3	Greater Manchester Buses South (Manchester) Queens Road large franchise Reference: dn580722 Num offers: 6 Value: £159,000,000.0-£200,000,000
4	Diamond Bus North West (Bolton) Oldham Small Small franchise. Reference: dn580722 Num offers: 2 Value: £6,300,000
5	First Manchester (Oldham) Rochdale A small franchise. Reference: dn580722 Num offers: 3 Value: £23,000,000.0-£29,000,000
6	First Manchester (Oldham) Rochdale B small franchise. Reference: dn580722 Num offers: 3 Value: £12,400,000.0-£15,100,000

 

[p2004]

Might not be directly related but which incarnation (if you will) of the 44 are we looking at here? It's had a series of different southern termini before, and currently is not operated by any operator (after Little Gem). It would be nice to get an alternative city centre bus to the 263 back to Altrincham.

 

[Tim33160]

The list of bus routes circulated as being in Tranche 3 is those that were running at the time of the issue of tenders (thought to be December 2019) Due to changes over the past four years, various routes have changed - not least due to the demise of Little Gem etc. It is likely there will be changes to some routes - but all will be revealed in 8 weeks when TfGM announce who gets what!