TfGM Tranche 3 speculation

[Class 466]

I believe it's already been confirmed that Arriva didn't bid for any Bee Network packages

You can probably rule out Transdev too - they wouldn't be able to use a patronising brand name for the services.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

You can probably rule out Transdev too - they wouldn't be able to use a patronising brand name for the services.

Quite right - who cares about marketing. Dealer white with "BUS" stamped on the side is sufficient.

 

[mancbus]

Arriva don't seem to be interested in retaining their existing work run from their Wythenshawe depot.
Stagecoach are expecting to lose a lot of work in South Manchester, including services from Sharston, and they aren't favourites with Burnham in view of their previous hostility to franchising.
Diamond's current delivery of services on some of their tendered routes in South Manchester (e.g. routes 370 and 371) has been poor and this will have been noticed by TfGM.

I personally think that Hyde Road, Sharston and probably Stockport will remain at Stagecoach since they go to the south of Manchester and they might lose Ashton to another company since that’s in the east of Manchester.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I personally think that Hyde road, Sharston and probably Stockport will remain at stagecoach since they go to the south of Manchester and Ashton they might lose to another company since that’s in the east of Manchester.

I'm sorry - I don't think you're getting this franchising thing at all.

It doesn't matter to Transport for Greater Manchester (TfGM) about who gets what, or that they go to the South of Manchester.

The award will be on a pre-determined process; the bidder with the best score (what they charge for doing the service, plus a quality score) will get the work. That might be Stagecoach, but could be First, Mobico, Rotala or whoever has met the standards to be allowed to bid.

 

[johncrossley]

and they aren't favourites with Burnham in view of their previous hostility to franchising.

Diamond was one of the winners in Tranche 1 and Stagecoach was the big winner in Tranche 2 despite both Rotala and Stagecoach taking TfGM to court over franchising. TfGM can't discriminate on the basis of prior opposition to franchising. Prior opposition to franchising has no part in the scoring process that determines who wins Tranche 3.

 

[mangad]

Out of interest, I decided to ask Microsoft Co-pilot (their version of ChatGPT) who will win the Tranche 3 franchises - specifically for three depots.

This was my question:

Who will win the Tranche 3 Bee Network franchises for the following depots: Ashton-under-Lyne, Sharston, Hyde Road.

And this is it's reply:

Hello, this is Copilot. I’m glad to help you with your question.
The Tranche 3 Bee Network franchises are the final phase of the bus franchising scheme in Greater Manchester, which will start on 5 January 2025. The franchises are divided into three large and nine small contracts, based on the depots and routes of the existing operators.
According to the web search results, the following operators have been awarded the Tranche 3 Bee Network franchises for the depots you asked about:

• Ashton-under-Lyne: Stagecoach (source - Bing)
• Sharston: Stagecoach (source as above)
• Hyde Road: FirstBus (source Bee Network committee minutes)

I hope this answer helps you know more about the Tranche 3 Bee Network franchises. Have a nice day! .

So there we have it. No more speculation. Co-pilot knows. It's Stagecoach and First. We can close this thread now

(I know what you're going to say. What about Stockport? It told me in a subsequent query that Go-Ahead got that one.)

 

[GCH100]

On another front to this, is there any limit in terms of percentage, what any one operator is allowed to operate in Greater Manchester, e.g. would Stagecoach be allowed to win all the South Manchester Major Depot contracts, based upon the fact it already has all the major depots in North Manchester? Also would an operator be allowed adjioning depots in two franchises, e.g. Stagecoach has Oldham depot in the North Manchester Franchise, could it also be allowed Ashton depot in the South Manchester Franchise?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

On another front to this, is there any limit in terms of percentage, what any one operator is allowed to operate in Greater Manchester, e.g. would Stagecoach be allowed to win all the South Manchester Major Depot contracts, based upon the fact it already has all the major depots in North Manchester? Also would an operator be allowed adjioning depots in two franchises, e.g. Stagecoach has Oldham depot in the North Manchester Franchise, could it also be allowed Ashton depot in the South Manchester Franchise?

Based on what you say above, would any operator who obtained large franchises in tranche 1 be allowed to have the same success in tranche 3?

 

[Leyland Bus]

Based on what you say above, would any operator who obtained large franchises in tranche 1 be allowed to have the same success in tranche 3?

As has been written in this thread many times over, monopoly rules don't apply in franchising, it is literally the best bid wins...

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

As has been written in this thread many times over, monopoly rules don't apply in franchising, it is literally the best bid wins...

I am most aware of what you say. I suppose my posting was made in response in exasperation to the views that some other cstillibutors who stll have not fully grasped the principles of how this TfGM tendering process actually works.

I am glad to see that having you upon this particular thread is something akin to Mr Chips, the teacher who hopefully guided his students minds along "the correct path"...

 

[GCH100]

As has been written in this thread many times over, monopoly rules don't apply in franchising, it is literally the best bid wins...

I am suprised monopoly rules don't apply, as they apply in London. Would TfGM be happy in the next round of Franchising if one operator won literally all the Big Bus Contracts in all three area's?

 

[mangad]

I am suprised monopoly rules don't apply, as they apply in London. Would TfGM be happy in the next round of Franchising if one operator won literally all the Big Bus Contracts in all three area's?

Does it matter if that happened?

After all, what are the consequences? TfGM get all the fares so there's no worries there. TfGM set the service levels. They own the depots. So as long as the operator meets them, all is good. Happy TfGM. And if not, there's a mechanism in place if quality metrics aren't reached.

And anyway, it's not forever. At some point the franchises come up for renewal again. One operator getting all the big franchises doesn't mean that would happen again in the future. Or that costs would go up.

Yes, it would be difficult if the operator abruptly shut down for some reason. But that would be true for any franchise, and for the big franchises, it's not very likely.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I am suprised monopoly rules don't apply, as they apply in London. Would TfGM be happy in the next round of Franchising if one operator won literally all the Big Bus Contracts in all three area's?

Does it matter if that happened?

After all, what are the consequences? TfGM get all the fares so there's no worries there. TfGM set the service levels. They own the depots. So as long as the operator meets them, all is good. Happy TfGM. And if not, there's a mechanism in place if quality metrics aren't reached.

And anyway, it's not forever. At some point the franchises come up for renewal again. One operator getting all the big franchises doesn't mean that would happen again in the future. Or that costs would go up.

Yes, it would be difficult if the operator abruptly shut down for some reason. But that would be true for any franchise, and for the big franchises, it's not very likely.

I think there's a bit of confusion here, again as people aren't getting the jist of franchising.

In terms of the wider deregulated bus market, there are concerns about monopolistic positions caused by acquisitions, and that's when the Competition and Markets Authority get involved. HOWEVER, THIS ISN'T THE CASE HERE! (sorry for raising my voice)

Instead, TfGM are the ones who are solely responsible for the management and planning of the Greater Manchester bus network, running a set of tenders in order to get the Most Economically Advantageous Tender (MEAT). That means the best value (for both quality and price) according to the specification of the tender that reflects what TfGM want.

I don't think they have a cap on the number of separate packages that any business can win. Not certain that procurement rules allow that but I may be wrong. However, there is clearly no issue in awarding large neighbouring packages to the same supplier - see Go Ahead (Bolton and Wigan), or Stagecoach (Oldham and Middleton, and arguably Queens Road).

Whether there is a longer term view that allowing one business to gain much or all of the packages might have ramifications. As @mangad said, there is increased risk with a business failure though there are certain provisions regarding Parental Company Guarantees and Performance Bonds to address this. Also, it might provide an ongoing advantage to a single organisation if they have economies of scale that they can leverage. It will be interesting to see who gets the T3 awards but might not simply be the same faces again.

 

[johncrossley]

I am surprised monopoly rules don't apply, as they apply in London. Would TfGM be happy in the next round of franchising if one operator won literally all the big bus contracts in all three areas?

Monopoly worries are higher in London because the operators own most of the depots and they tender out route by route. For each London bus route, generally speaking, only operators that have a suitably located depot are likely to tender. Whereas in Greater Manchester, any operator can bid whether or not they are currently in the area. So even if one operator runs all buses in Greater Manchester, at retender time they face potentially unlimited competition.
It was already mentioned that there has been healthy competition for the tranches awarded so far:

There were 8 bidders for all the large (2) and multiple bidders for all the small franchises (9) tendered in the first tranche apart from one small that had one bid and one small (consisting of just two routes) that got zero bids. There was loads of interest and heavily fought hence the contracts coming in 10% below the forecast price in the Bee Network budget.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Monopoly worries are higher in London because the operators own most of the depots and they tender out route by route. For each London bus route, generally speaking, only operators that have a suitably located depot are likely to tender. Whereas in Greater Manchester, any operator can bid whether or not they are currently in the area. So even if one operator runs all buses in Greater Manchester, at retender time they face potentially unlimited competition.
It was already mentioned that there has been healthy competition for the tranches awarded so far:

When Mayor Andy Burnham, in the early days, used London as an example of bus franchising that Greater Manchester would follow, I do not recall him explaining the differences between the existing London bus franchise system and the points you state above in relation to what the Greater Manchester system would include.

 

[johncrossley]

When Mayor Andy Burnham, in the early days, used London as an example of bus franchising that Greater Manchester would follow, I do not recall him explaining the differences between the existing London bus franchise system and the points you state above in relation to what the Greater Manchester system would include.

He probably didn't even know there would be a difference at that time. The style of franchising was presumably devised by TfGM after evaluating the various options.

 

[Scotrail88]

Is there any indication of announcement date?
Usually been about 9 months prior

 

[baza585]

I think there's a bit of confusion here, again as people aren't getting the jist of franchising.

In terms of the wider deregulated bus market, there are concerns about monopolistic positions caused by acquisitions, and that's when the Competition and Markets Authority get involved. HOWEVER, THIS ISN'T THE CASE HERE! (sorry for raising my voice)

Instead, TfGM are the ones who are solely responsible for the management and planning of the Greater Manchester bus network, running a set of tenders in order to get the Most Economically Advantageous Tender (MEAT). That means the best value (for both quality and price) according to the specification of the tender that reflects what TfGM want.

I don't think they have a cap on the number of separate packages that any business can win. Not certain that procurement rules allow that but I may be wrong. However, there is clearly no issue in awarding large neighbouring packages to the same supplier - see Go Ahead (Bolton and Wigan), or Stagecoach (Oldham and Middleton, and arguably Queens Road).

Whether there is a longer term view that allowing one business to gain much or all of the packages might have ramifications. As @mangad said, there is increased risk with a business failure though there are certain provisions regarding Parental Company Guarantees and Performance Bonds to address this. Also, it might provide an ongoing advantage to a single organisation if they have economies of scale that they can leverage. It will be interesting to see who gets the T3 awards but might not simply be the same faces again.

All very true and explained far more eloquently than I could have

If Stagecoach win most/all of T3, that will affect the bids next time around, because they will own most of the local staff pool (not just drivers......), and other tenderers will be reliant on the TUPE roulette wheel. They will price that risk in.

This there is a clear incentive for TfGM to not award all of T3 to Stagecoach, so that one operator doesn't hold too many aces next time around. Clearly the quality criteria are judgemental to some extent, the price isn't.


Time will tell.

 

[Volvodart]

Is there any indication of announcement date?
Usually been about 9 months prior

It is supposed to be announced the day tranche 2 starts.

 

[mancbus]

First and Diamond will take small franchise and apparently Stagecoach might just come out with one large franchise meaning others might be new companies, said here:

Speculation mounts over Tranche 3 winners

www.passengertransport.co.uk

As Greater Manchester’s franchised Bee Network prepares to launch its second phase, speculation is mounting regarding who the successful bidders for the third and final phase will be.

Industry rumours hint at a potential shake-up for Stagecoach in Tranche 3, which takes in the south of Greater Manchester with five large and four small franchises that cover Stockport, Tameside, Trafford, and the rest of Manchester and Salford.

While Stagecoach currently holds a dominant position in the deregulated setup of the area, speculation suggests it could walk away with just one of the large franchises

While Stagecoach currently holds a dominant position in the deregulated setup of the area, speculation suggests it could walk away with just one of the large franchises. First Manchester and Rotala’s Diamond Bus operation are expected to make strides with the small franchise contracts. Additionally, there are murmurs of a newcomer to bus operation in the region clinching some or all of the remaining large contracts.

Transport for Greater Manchester (TfGM) has refused to be drawn on the speculation. A spokesperson added that an update on Tranche 3 will be provided in the coming weeks.

 

[Fox192]

Stagecoach I think will keep Stockport, I reckon that’s their focus

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Now less than a fortnight to go before the formal Tranche 3 announcement is made.

 

[Class 466]

Personally I just hope GNW don’t get anymore, their current operation is the poorest of the lot so far.

No plans to replace a load of old Ex London Vehicles and you know if they win anything else they’ll be drafting more 13 odd year old vehicles from their London operators. To think at one point they were going to use 2008 plate Optare Olympus Tridents - they just got lucky with taking on most of Diamonds Streetdecks, but failed to order enough new single deckers for Tranche 1.

Meanwhile Stagecoach are investing a huge amount into Tranche 2 in comparison!

 

[47550]

Personally I just hope GNW don’t get anymore, their current operation is the poorest of the lot so far.

No plans to replace a load of old Ex London Vehicles and you know if they win anything else they’ll be drafting more 13 odd year old vehicles from their London operators. To think at one point they were going to use 2008 plate Optare Olympus Tridents - they just got lucky with taking on most of Diamonds Streetdecks, but failed to order enough new single deckers for Tranche 1.

Meanwhile Stagecoach are investing a huge amount into Tranche 2 in comparison!

Is it really that poor ? The Tfgm stats say that punctuality on the Bee Network services (which are mainly operated by Go NW at the moment) are much better than last year (pre franchise) and better than the incumbent operators in the rest of Manchester.

Yes they have some 13/14 year old buses but that is inevitable in the profile of any fleet - they have 50 new BYDs and 40 odd new single deckers so the average age of the fleet must be fairly low these days.

It’s good that Stagecoach have ordered so many new buses - it’s a long while since those areas had any new buses so it is well overdue. They will have a very young fleet of course but over time I’m sure that will even out. They will also have older buses too - the 20 omnideckers from Go NW and a similar number of E400 hybrids from Newcastle for example.

 

[mancbus]

Personally I just hope GNW don’t get anymore, their current operation is the poorest of the lot so far.

No plans to replace a load of old Ex London Vehicles and you know if they win anything else they’ll be drafting more 13 odd year old vehicles from their London operators. To think at one point they were going to use 2008 plate Optare Olympus Tridents - they just got lucky with taking on most of Diamonds Streetdecks, but failed to order enough new single deckers for Tranche 1.

Meanwhile Stagecoach are investing a huge amount into Tranche 2 in comparison!

If it is GNW as a winner they probably might use Stagecoach vehicles and repaint them like they did with diamond ones but I think GNW will only win one large award.

 

[northwichcat]

Personally I just hope GNW don’t get anymore, their current operation is the poorest of the lot so far.

No plans to replace a load of old Ex London Vehicles and you know if they win anything else they’ll be drafting more 13 odd year old vehicles from their London operators. To think at one point they were going to use 2008 plate Optare Olympus Tridents - they just got lucky with taking on most of Diamonds Streetdecks, but failed to order enough new single deckers for Tranche 1.

Meanwhile Stagecoach are investing a huge amount into Tranche 2 in comparison!

Overall their fleet looks like an impressive list. It looks like some cascaded Wright Eclipses and Mercedes-Benz Citaros are the old examples, but even those aren't too old compared with what's in regular use outside London and PTE areas.

Fleet list – Bee Network - Go North West – bustimes.org

 

[47550]

If it is GNW as a winner they probably might use Stagecoach vehicles and repaint them like they did with diamond ones but I think GNW will only win one large award.

Stockport will be getting 170 new electrics.

 

[Simon75]

Stockport will be getting 170 new electrics.

Is Stockport garage still being replaced, or will it get upgraded to electric?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Is Stockport garage still being replaced, or will it get upgraded to electric?

I am sure that the new depot was planned to be on the other side of the motorway.

 

[Sir Felix Pole]

I am sure that the new depot was planned to be on the other side of the motorway.

Yes, it is supposed to be built on the site of the Ambulance Station just off Travis Brow, but there is no sign of them vacating or anything happening. I guess there will have to be interim charging facilities at the old depot for the time being.