Thameslink - Has Covid “saved face”

[Failed Unit]

Just looking as numbers are recovering generally on the network, wondering what peoples opinion is on if Covid has saved a few blushes on the focus of Thameslink. I am sure I have missed a few things but here a few items that were never delivered (probably won’t be now)

Cambridge - Maidstone East services (understand lack of Ashford Depot)
This splits people for a start as the start / terminating at Kings Cross does prevent importing of delays. But the through trains to stations to London Bridge are welcome even if no-one really cares where the train goes afterwards. However would we have enough 700s to run this service. We often see 387s running this route. I don’t think the failure rate of the 700s is anywhere near as high enough to run that service even if demand existed.

Welwyn / Hertford - Moorgate.
This should be every 15 minutes off-peak (the area where demand is picking up) - This was never introduced because of lack of staff, but even now I don’t see this improving. I suspect if the fall in passenger numbers because of Covid hand not happened we would still not have this running. Understand Covid didn’t help staff training, but I also understand even if Covid didn’t impact this, recruitment isn’t keeping up with retirement and resignation. Some of these are getting busy in the peak but not as bad as pre-Covid. The gaps in the tfl area should really be smoothed out if it is to stay every 30 mins.

24tph through the core.
Again if was always in doubt if this could be achieved, but now we don’t need to worry about it.

Welwyn - Sevenoaks seems to be getting a loyal following, but from WGC trains are certainly not as busy as pre-pandemic, and that is with the Baldock - London services still not in the timetable. On GN side a number of peak services are not in the timetable still. (Not sure about other routes). Hopefully these won’t be removed as a quick cost saving as when they don’t run (cancellations) the other services are not overwhelmed with displaced passengers.

Do you think Covid is a very good smoke screen for cuts to the GN / Thameslink (or rather not full implementation) of the 2018 timetable, that the DfT would had to make anyway. I know some services are on a worse frequency then pre 2018, but the number of seats is up. Some routes were slightly over provisioned (Hitchin - Cambridge), but even Peterborough - Hitchin off-peak is all 12 car when some were previously 4.

Hopefully we won’t make the same mistake as the 1980s and move stock way only for us not to be able to bring it back (although the loss of the 365s this has already happened to a degree). I guess we need a period of stability before we can start thinking of growth again, but I think the DfT are rather fortunate that they no longer need to try to implement the 2018 timetable.

 

[Fred26]

Just looking as numbers are recovering generally on the network, wondering what peoples opinion is on if Covid has saved a few blushes on the focus of Thameslink. I am sure I have missed a few things but here a few items that were never delivered (probably won’t be now)

Cambridge - Maidstone East services (understand lack of Ashford Depot)
This splits people for a start as the start / terminating at Kings Cross does prevent importing of delays. But the through trains to stations to London Bridge are welcome even if no-one really cares where the train goes afterwards. However would we have enough 700s to run this service. We often see 387s running this route. I don’t think the failure rate of the 700s is anywhere near as high enough to run that service even if demand existed.

Welwyn / Hertford - Moorgate.
This should be every 15 minutes off-peak (the area where demand is picking up) - This was never introduced because of lack of staff, but even now I don’t see this improving. I suspect if the fall in passenger numbers because of Covid hand not happened we would still not have this running. Understand Covid didn’t help staff training, but I also understand even if Covid didn’t impact this, recruitment isn’t keeping up with retirement and resignation. Some of these are getting busy in the peak but not as bad as pre-Covid. The gaps in the tfl area should really be smoothed out if it is to stay every 30 mins.

24tph through the core.
Again if was always in doubt if this could be achieved, but now we don’t need to worry about it.

Welwyn - Sevenoaks seems to be getting a loyal following, but from WGC trains are certainly not as busy as pre-pandemic, and that is with the Baldock - London services still not in the timetable. On GN side a number of peak services are not in the timetable still. (Not sure about other routes). Hopefully these won’t be removed as a quick cost saving as when they don’t run (cancellations) the other services are not overwhelmed with displaced passengers.

Do you think Covid is a very good smoke screen for cuts to the GN / Thameslink (or rather not full implementation) of the 2018 timetable, that the DfT would had to make anyway. I know some services are on a worse frequency then pre 2018, but the number of seats is up. Some routes were slightly over provisioned (Hitchin - Cambridge), but even Peterborough - Hitchin off-peak is all 12 car when some were previously 4.

Hopefully we won’t make the same mistake as the 1980s and move stock way only for us not to be able to bring it back (although the loss of the 365s this has already happened to a degree). I guess we need a period of stability before we can start thinking of growth again, but I think the DfT are rather fortunate that they no longer need to try to implement the 2018 timetable.

The Cambridge - Maidstone East services might as well run. When there's disruption it touches all services, none are protected by not going through the core.
This is because drivers work across the routes.

Before Covid there was an off-peak service of roughly every fifteen minutes, Welwyn Garden City - Moorgate and Hertford North - Moorgate.
This was cut back during Lockdown and has yet to make a return. You can see where these trains would've been as they were just removed from the timetable - it wasn't re-written.
Peak services were at 12tph between the two branches, now up to 10tph, but only for one hour.
The original plan for May 2018, was 10tph off peak to Moorgate. 4tph WGC-MOG, 2tph SVG-MOG, 2tph HFN-MOG, 2tph GDH-MOG. The GDH trains didn't run.
During the peak 14tph were due to run with 2 extra GDH trains. Again, these didn't run.
Saturdays were supposed to be the same as Monday-Friday off-peak, and Sunday was to be 6tph (4xWGC, 2x SVG).

The weekend frequency is unchanged in many years.

Before Covid the GN Inners were very busy during the peaks. 12tph was probably not enough. Post Covid, the trains are still busy, just not as busy. 12tph would be well loaded now.

It concerns me that the Government/DfT/GTR are happy to run the reduced service and Covid is just an excuse. For a metro service it's a pretty poor offering.

 

[Failed Unit]

Did the 4tph metro ever actually happen? I remember it in the May 2018 timetable, it getting withdrawn by about August 2018 but don't recall it coming back before Covid. (But could be wrong)
But an agree the current timetable doesn't really work in the Tfl area. The 10min / 20 min gaps are not the best. Saying that considering when I use it there isn't a viable alternative I doubt it is costing them business. But a train about every 7 mins between Moorgate and Alexandra Palace is probably closer to what TFL want.

 

[jon0844]

4tph from WGC to Moorgate all through the day was a thing, with every other train shunted to start from platform 1 once the (then) 2Yxx services going only as far as King's Cross had finished or before they started again in the evening. It often saw delays as any delay inbound had a knock on effect.

The Sevenoaks trains have now had tweaks to make them keep to time better, but also run the risk of knock on delays if they're held up inbound from London - and likewise must have problems going south again.

I am really not happy that in the evening we now have hourly trains to/from King's Cross, although WGC gets an additional stop on a 9Sxx service - but that often runs late as you'd expect having come from Brighton.

It suddenly means having to time your journey much more than 2 trains an hour, which can be difficult if you need to get to King's Cross using more than one tube line, a bus or whatever.

I fear the DfT may make further cuts, and those first and last trains may also get culled if we're not careful.

 

[Failed Unit]

4tph from WGC to Moorgate all through the day was a thing, with every other train shunted to start from platform 1 once the (then) 2Yxx services going only as far as King's Cross had finished or before they started again in the evening. It often saw delays as any delay inbound had a knock on effect.

The Sevenoaks trains have now had tweaks to make them keep to time better, but also run the risk of knock on delays if they're held up inbound from London - and likewise must have problems going south again.

I am really not happy that in the evening we now have hourly trains to/from King's Cross, although WGC gets an additional stop on a 9Sxx service - but that often runs late as you'd expect having come from Brighton.

It suddenly means having to time your journey much more than 2 trains an hour, which can be difficult if you need to get to King's Cross using more than one tube line, a bus or whatever.

I fear the DfT may make further cuts, and those first and last trains may also get culled if we're not careful.

Now you mention it, I do recall this now - I just didn't realise it kept going.

Must admit it is be careful what you wish for on the 9S - When I use it from St Pancras I tend not to go down to the platform until I see the train is in the core. A lot of people get off that train at WGC to get the train over the platform back to Hatfield (Which considering its timekeeping I always think is risky)

Not sure how much these changes have made in terms of savings as the train still needs leasing etc. But I agree I can see it getting much worse.

 

[jon0844]

There seem to be a lot of 700s not in use and 387s substituting them (even having 4 car 387s replacing 700s in the peak sometimes) and I wonder what the contract is with Siemens on providing xx trains per day? It seems like a variation on a regular lease.

Could it be a good way to save money by telling Siemens you no longer need as many trains? Does Siemens get paid for a minimum service level no matter what?

 

[Failed Unit]

There seem to be a lot of 700s not in use and 387s substituting them (even having 4 car 387s replacing 700s in the peak sometimes) and I wonder what the contract is with Siemens on providing xx trains per day? It seems like a variation on a regular lease.

Could it be a good way to save money by telling Siemens you no longer need as many trains? Does Siemens get paid for a minimum service level no matter what?

Good question, I have notice the 387s, but hard to figure out the diagrams. For example the 0657 Cambridge - London (0754 ex WGC) seems to often have one, which then returns as the 0842 Kings Cross - Kings Lynn.

Just wasn't sure if these were because Siemens couldn't provide enough trains, but then as you say if GTR can cover the diagram with a 387 and by not leasing a train off Siemens will save money then I can see why we regularly see 387s covering. That said I can't believe Siemens haven't got in the contract they get paid for 40 trains (example number) whether GTR uses 38 or 40. I am still waiting for a 717 to appear on the London - Letchworth diagram (if it is allowed). Better then no train at all of course.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

24tph through the core.
Again if was always in doubt if this could be achieved, but now we don’t need to worry about it.

You can see when service is in perturbation that 24TPH is achieved through the core and thats with drivers not using ATO.

Real issue was marshalling up the trains outside of the core to achieve 24TPH i would suggest.

The deeper issue that really needs resolving is how an issue on one side or other of the core collapses services both sides and thus strips out vast amounts of capacity.

 

[Failed Unit]

You can see when service is in perturbation that 24TPH is achieved through the core and thats with drivers not using ATO.

Real issue was marshalling up the trains outside of the core to achieve 24TPH i would suggest.

The deeper issue that really needs resolving is how an issue on one side or other of the core collapses services both sides and thus strips out vast amounts of capacity.

I have noticed with delays that it soon gets very messy. which is why I struggle to see how 24tph can work. Maybe ATO would help, but we have seen it many times a failed unit at Kentish Town, nothing moves towards Finsbury Park either. But a 5 minute delay into the core seems to escalate quickly.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I have noticed with delays that it soon gets very messy. which is why I struggle to see how 24tph can work. Maybe ATO would help, but we have seen it many times a failed unit at Kentish Town, nothing moves towards Finsbury Park either. But a 5 minute delay into the core seems to escalate quickly.

For sure but the core infrastructure can deliver 24TPH and the drivers manage the station dwell times very effectively even under heavy passenger loadings but we are both in broad agreement that delivery of services into the core will always be its Achilles Heel but even 90% of the throughput is a worthy outcome.

 

[Magdalia]

Through force of circumstance Thameslink is creeping towards what I thought was a realistic objective before 2018. That's 20tph through the core in the peak and junking Cambridge-Maidstone East.

24tph should be the get out of jail card for peak time disruptions in the core such as ac/dc change failures.

I would like to see Welwyn-Sevenoaks running all day but, in the current climate, I can't see that happening without reductions elsewhere, so I would also be binning Luton-Rainham.

 

[Failed Unit]

Through force of circumstance Thameslink is creeping towards what I thought was a realistic objective before 2018. That's 20tph through the core in the peak and junking Cambridge-Maidstone East.

24tph should be the get out of jail card for peak time disruptions in the core such as ac/dc change failures.

I would like to see Welwyn-Sevenoaks running all day but, in the current climate, I can't see that happening without reductions elsewhere, so I would also be binning Luton-Rainham.

Rolling stockwise Cambridge / Letchworth should be possible, as the unit has.a 30 min layover in Kings Cross and combine this with the Blackfriars layover it should not need anything extra.

However it would need a recast as currently they wouldn't match up. I suspect it could be challenging to path it as a through service without causing pathing conflicts elsewhere.

For sure but the core infrastructure can deliver 24TPH and the drivers manage the station dwell times very effectively even under heavy passenger loadings but we are both in broad agreement that delivery of services into the core will always be its Achilles Heel but even 90% of the throughput is a worthy outcome.

Yep - getting the trains to present to the core is a major challenge. The Welwyn - Sevenoaks really does suffer from slight delays to proceeding services. I have noticed that as well since Cross-Rail is joint up. It just don't know the timetable as well and are travelling exclusively in the core that I don't know how much of a problem it is. People in Reading / Shenfield may have the same issues. Fortunately for that route DfT are not ready to swing the axe as quickly.

 

[Magdalia]

Rolling stockwise Cambridge / Letchworth should be possible, as the unit has.a 30 min layover in Kings Cross and combine this with the Blackfriars layover it should not need anything extra.

However it would need a recast as currently they wouldn't match up. I suspect it could be challenging to path it as a through service without causing pathing conflicts elsewhere.

The key issue is trains stopping at Welwyn North in the 2 track section, which need to be from/to Kings Cross to reduce risk of disrupting the ECML. Thameslink trains terminating/starting at Welwyn are significantly more resilient because they don't go into the 2 track section.

 

[Failed Unit]

The key issue is trains stopping at Welwyn North in the 2 track section, which need to be from/to Kings Cross to reduce risk of disrupting the ECML. Thameslink trains terminating/starting at Welwyn are significantly more resilient because they don't go into the 2 track section.

They will just skip it when it is late

 

[Backroom_boy]

For sure but the core infrastructure can deliver 24TPH and the drivers manage the station dwell times very effectively even under heavy passenger loadings

Would it be helpful if the core for ATO is expanded outwards? Obviously would be pushing the problem further out to some degree, but could have a positive affect to some degree allowing shorter headways

 

[Bikeman78]

Did the 4tph metro ever actually happen? I remember it in the May 2018 timetable, it getting withdrawn by about August 2018 but don't recall it coming back before Covid. (But could be wrong)
But an agree the current timetable doesn't really work in the Tfl area. The 10min / 20 min gaps are not the best. Saying that considering when I use it there isn't a viable alternative I doubt it is costing them business. But a train about every 7 mins between Moorgate and Alexandra Palace is probably closer to what TFL want.

Yes, it definitely happened. I did a few trips on the 313s once it was fully up and running. The off-peak service required 18 pairs. An Indian summer for the fleet.