The 2024 London Mayoral Election

[Thirteen]

One of many elections that will be happening this year but this one is going to see Sadiq Khan try and get a historic third term. This will also be the first Mayoral election to use First Past the Post and Voter IDs.

Now I think Sadiq Khan will likely win but it's good that he's not treating it as a shoo in. Susan Hall is his closest rival but with the Conservatives at an all time low in the polls, it will be difficult but not impossible to win over Londoners.

Will be interesting to see the Manifestos of either candidates, I think a pro transport pledge is important especially in a city like London.

 

[renegademaster]

I expected the Tories to run Bailey again. He ran Khan closer than expected last time and the environment is worse for Khan now. Yes he was caught messing about during covid but so was half the tory party and everyone has seemed to have largely forgotten.

Khan has been very adept at negotiating with Westminster and has seeemed to have substantially watered down the Treaty of Versailles that Whitehall wanted him to sign in exchange for bailing out TfL. Would be a much harder election if parents had found themselves paying bus fares for children. Also the free lunches for primary school children will have brought him many votes

 

[AlterEgo]

Khan will win again. The previous election had the most appalling candidates I’ve ever seen on a ballot paper and that is no exaggeration. This year will be no different.

 

[Class93]

Yes he was caught messing about during covid but so was half the tory party and a good few from the opposite benches and everyone has seemed to have largely forgotten.

Do you have a source for this? I don’t seem to recall it was anyone but conservative.

 

[renegademaster]

Do you have a source for this? I don’t seem to recall it was anyone but conservative

A few from SNP, and Beergate broke the spirit of the rules even if the police let them off on a technicality. But this is really off topic anyway so i removed my claim from my post to prevent a further hassle.

 

[jon81uk]

Apparently Susan Hall made a complete mess of an appearance on LBC this morning, particularly with things such as not knowing the standard London bus fare (£1.75).

 

[ainsworth74]

This will also be the first Mayoral election to use First Past the Post and Voter IDs.

The perversion of introducing First Past the Post to reduce the democratic legitimacy of the election but dressing it up as an attempt to make democracy stronger is something that still rankles. I'm sure it has nothing to do with the hope that it will favour Tory candidates in upcoming elections at all. Shysters the lot of them.

That being said I suspect that they've chosen a candidate so weak that even this blatant attempt at electioneering won't be enough and Khan is surely the favourite to win a third term. The only way I can see that going wrong is if someone like Corbyn runs as an independent. I could see him syphoning off a decent chunk of votes, possibly enough to make a difference.

 

[Thirteen]

The perversion of introducing First Past the Post to reduce the democratic legitimacy of the election but dressing it up as an attempt to make democracy stronger is something that still rankles. I'm sure it has nothing to do with the hope that it will favour Tory candidates in upcoming elections at all. Shysters the lot of them.

That being said I suspect that they've chosen a candidate so weak that even this blatant attempt at electioneering won't be enough and Khan is surely the favourite to win a third term. The only way I can see that going wrong is if someone like Corbyn runs as an independent. I could see him syphoning off a decent chunk of votes, possibly enough to make a difference.

I think if Jeremy Corbyn was planning to run, he would have announced it by now.

The Susan Hall interview with Nick Ferrari proves she needs media training because she struggled with his questioning.

 

[DarloRich]

Beergate broke the spirit of the rules even if the police let them off on a technicality

it is is important to be really clear about this situation: no rules or laws were broken. There was no technicality. TWO police investigations proved this.

It is also very important that we don't try to associate this with the clear law breaking of Johnson and his pals. The "beergate" investigation cost c£101k and wasted police time. The attack on Starmer was a Tory instigated and led smear campaign to distract from the law breaking of Johnson and his pals.

There is nothing further to debate.

Apparently Susan Hall made a complete mess of an appearance on LBC this morning, particularly with things such as not knowing the standard London bus fare (£1.75).

She would have struggled if the presenter asked her to confirm today was Monday!

The Susan Hall interview with Nick Ferrari proves she needs media training because she struggled with his questioning.

She needs more than media training.

The perversion of introducing First Past the Post to reduce the democratic legitimacy of the election but dressing it up as an attempt to make democracy stronger is something that still rankles. I'm sure it has nothing to do with the hope that it will favour Tory candidates in upcoming elections at all. Shysters the lot of them.

Rory Stewart has been quite interesting on this change and how it seems designed to prevent any serious independent or third party candidate from mounting a campaign

 

[Thirteen]

I think a moderate Tory candidate would have had a better chance of winning like Paul Scully. It does surprise me he wasn't even shortlisted.

 

[renegademaster]

.


Rory Stewart has been quite interesting on this change and how it seems designed to prevent any serious independent or third party candidate from mounting a campaign

I dont like what theyve done but its not really harder for an independent to win than the big parties under FPTP than RV. Ranked vote is probably a bit harder to break through as an indy as someone always almost puts one of labcon as one of the choices. It was changed to hurt Labour, independents never really had a chance in the first place. As people have put in this thread , someone like Corbyn or Galloway would do well running on a anti-Israel platform and split the left wing vote.

 

[Busaholic]

I think if Jeremy Corbyn was planning to run, he would have announced it by now.

The Susan Hall interview with Nick Ferrari proves she needs media training because she struggled with his questioning.

Successful media training makes an assumption that an individual is both receptive and intelligent enough to be able to make use of it. Some, like Susan Hall and Liz Truss, are not.

The perversion of introducing First Past the Post to reduce the democratic legitimacy of the election but dressing it up as an attempt to make democracy stronger is something that still rankles. I'm sure it has nothing to do with the hope that it will favour Tory candidates in upcoming elections at all. Shysters the lot of them.

That being said I suspect that they've chosen a candidate so weak that even this blatant attempt at electioneering won't be enough and Khan is surely the favourite to win a third term. The only way I can see that going wrong is if someone like Corbyn runs as an independent. I could see him syphoning off a decent chunk of votes, possibly enough to make a difference.

Totally agree with all that.

 

[brad465]

She needs more than media training.

Sectioning for starters.

It's also worth remembering the only reason Hall is the Tory candidate is because the previous candidate stepped down after groping allegations were made against him.

 

[renegademaster]

I think a moderate Tory candidate would have had a better chance of winning like Paul Scully. It does surprise me he wasn't even shortlisted.

Why? The only moderate tory whose ran for London mayor post ken performed pretty poorly

 

[Broucek]

Apparently Susan Hall made a complete mess of an appearance on LBC this morning, particularly with things such as not knowing the standard London bus fare (£1.75).

While I'm not necessarily a fan of her, I get a bit sick of the whole "How much is a bus fair/pint of milk/loaf of bread?" ambush. You know this if money is tight (or perhaps if you pay by cash) but most people on decent incomes don't know this - you touch the card reader on the bus and forget. It's a really, really poor test of empathy

 

[Norm_D_Ploom]

Not often I agree with Noel Gallagher, but I think he might be onto something with his opinion of Khan

 

[TheSmiths82]

I am not sure how people of London will forget this. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/lon...tfl-sadiq-khan-lbc-nick-ferrari-b1125117.html

I know Greater London is varied in terms of demographics but I think Khan will win it.

 

[cjmillsnun]

While I'm not necessarily a fan of her, I get a bit sick of the whole "How much is a bus fair/pint of milk/loaf of bread?" ambush. You know this if money is tight (or perhaps if you pay by cash) but most people on decent incomes don't know this - you touch the card reader on the bus and forget. It's a really, really poor test of empathy

The Mayor of London is responsible for TfL which sets bus fairs and the Mayor is also responsible for the Met police. She’s standing for election for Mayor. It’s her job to know. It’s a bit different to how much is a pint of milk.

She’s also been on the GLA for years and also should know who is responsible for Hammersmith Bridge.

Nick Ferrari is a Tory and is going to be the softest MSM interviewer she encounters.

 

[jon81uk]

While I'm not necessarily a fan of her, I get a bit sick of the whole "How much is a bus fair/pint of milk/loaf of bread?" ambush. You know this if money is tight (or perhaps if you pay by cash) but most people on decent incomes don't know this - you touch the card reader on the bus and forget. It's a really, really poor test of empathy

It feels different to the pint of milk or loaf of bread question as those prices do vary by store and not everyone would buy the same product (some get 4 pint bottles, or seeded bread etc) and politicians are directly responsible for those items. Whereas the Mayor of London is in charge of TfL and their office will promote the fare prices/changes/freezes so there is a direct relationship between the Mayor and TfL fares. Given the bus fare is a fixed predictable cost it should be easy to at least guess, a statement like I haven't used one for a few years but it was £1.50 back then would have sufficed to look more engaged.

 

[Thirteen]

The fact all of the right wing paper aside from the Express has not been that supportive suggests they think she has no chance.

 

[telstarbox]

While I'm not necessarily a fan of her, I get a bit sick of the whole "How much is a bus fair/pint of milk/loaf of bread?" ambush. You know this if money is tight (or perhaps if you pay by cash) but most people on decent incomes don't know this - you touch the card reader on the bus and forget. It's a really, really poor test of empathy

I probably get more buses than most MPs and I couldn't tell you the exact single fare from year to year, I know it's between £1.50 and £2. "When were you last on a bus" would be a better question!

 

[Busaholic]

I'd imagine an anti-Ulez, one issue candidate will stand and garner quite a lot of votes in certain Outer London areas e.g. Bexley, Bromley and Croydon. Where these votes come from will be interesting; certainly not all from the Tories, though few from the LibDems or Greens, I guess! Others may not usually vote at all.

 

[ainsworth74]

I probably get more buses than most MPs and I couldn't tell you the exact single fare from year to year, I know it's between £1.50 and £2. "When were you last on a bus" would be a better question!

Yes I was thinking that. I'd far more know how often a politician uses a service that they either are in charge of or are campaigning to be in charge of than if they know how much a bus fare is. If they don't know how much a bus fare exactly is but they use the buses a few times a month I think they're fare better placed to know about the problems that might face London (or where ever they are) than someone who has memorised the bus fare but hasn't used a bus in years.

But it makes for a good quick headline and will get those who are already pre-disposed to dislike candidate X nodding along about how terrible and out of touch they are whilst those who like candidate X will come to their defence. Thus driving engagement and generating money for the media outlet that sprang the question on them.

 

[renegademaster]

I'd imagine an anti-Ulez, one issue candidate will stand and garner quite a lot of votes in certain Outer London areas e.g. Bexley, Bromley and Croydon. Where these votes come from will be interesting; certainly not all from the Tories, though few from the LibDems or Greens, I guess! Others may not usually vote at all.

A "anti-zionist" candidate on the left would balance it out vote splitting wise

 

[Blindtraveler]

I don't live in greater London so therefore cannot vote but as someone who uses London as a city in which to both work and play I do not want Sadiq khan back for a third term under any circumstance and I know that I'm not alone in this

 

[jon81uk]

I don't live in greater London so therefore cannot vote but as someone who uses London as a city in which to both work and play I do not want Sadiq khan back for a third term under any circumstance and I know that I'm not alone in this

Why do you not what Sadiq Khan as mayor and what benefits do an alternative candidate offer?

 

[DarloRich]

I do not want Sadiq khan back for a third term under any circumstance and I know that I'm not alone in this

Could you expand on that and provide some sources for your comment?

 

[brad465]

I don't live in greater London so therefore cannot vote but as someone who uses London as a city in which to both work and play I do not want Sadiq khan back for a third term under any circumstance and I know that I'm not alone in this

Unless the Tories dump Hall and find a better alternative, or a strong independent comes forward (similar to how Ken Livingstone was first elected), then Khan's re-election is looking highly likely. He wasn't very popular in 2021 either, but again the Tories fielded a poor alternative so Khan returned.

 

[telstarbox]

Not often I agree with Noel Gallagher, but I think he might be onto something with his opinion of Khan

What did he say?

 

[Thirteen]

I do wonder if those who don't want Sadiq Khan to do a third term has seen Susan Hall in any of her interviews? I'm not sure if Londoners would vote for her.