The GTR Cascade

[Mordac]

I've been trying to piece together all that's known about the current plans involving both internal and external EMU cascades from GTR. As far as I could work out, the following is what's going to happen. This is probably both incomplete and wrong, and the reason for this thread is for it to be corrected, so please, don't hesitate to do so!

The current situation is:

Thameslink
30 (as of 30/09/16) Class 700s already delivered, the rest on order
51 Class 319s
32 Class 377s
23 Class 387s

Great Northern
44 Class 313s
12 Class 317s
13 Class 321s
40 Class 365s
6 Class 387s

Southern
20 Class 171s
19 Class 313s
207 Class 377s
6 Class 442s (or very soon to be 6 anyway)
46 Class 455s
27 Class 387s (or soon to be 27, not sure if the last one is still with TL)

Now, this is what I can work out are the changes:

Thameslink
87 Class 700s to come, taking over all services.
4 Class 319s to go to Northern (the 51 total above excludes the 8 that are already at Wolverton)
47 Class 319s with destination unknown
32 Class 377s to Southern (not sure about this at all)
23 Class 387s to join their brethren at GN

Great Northern
44 Class 313s to stay on until the 717s arrive, probably for scrap afterwards
12 Class 317s for AGA as a temporary cover until the Aventras arrive
6 Class 321s for AGA as a temporary cover until the Aventras arrive
7 Class 321s with destination unknown
19 Class 365s to be kept
21 Class 365s with destination unknown, could be retained as well
+23 Class 387s from TL
+25 717s on order
Also can't work out if GN will get any 700s, or if services which currently are GN in scope will be operated by TL branded 700s

Southern
+32 377s from TL (23x 377/5 and 9x 377/2)

Possible 36 377/1s to SouthEastern, but not certain.

And that's as far as I know. Feedback is needed, I'm sure this is wrong multiple times, but it's a start to get it all sorted out in my mind!

 

[hwl]

Current rumour is 36x 377/1 from Southern to SouthEastern

365s was originaly 19 staying and 21 going

 

[D365]

Now, this is what I can work out are the changes:

Thameslink
Class 700s to take over all services.
8 Class 319s to go to Northern (the 55 total above excludes the 4 that are already at Wolverton)

Twelve more units for Northern in total, though I believe that four are on a short-term lease until the Class 331s are in service.

47 Class 319s with destination unknown
32 Class 377s to Southern (not sure about this at all)
29 (not 23) Class 387s to join their brethren at GN [what brethren?]

Great Northern
44 Class 313s to stay on until the 717s arrive, for scrap afterwards
12 Class 317s for AGA as a temporary cover until the Aventras arrive
6 Class 321s for AGA as a temporary cover until the Aventras arrive
7 Class 321s with destination unknown
SOME 365s to be kept and some with destination unknown, but can't remember the numbers! help.

19 are remaining with Great Northern.

+29 (not 23) Class 387s from TL
+25 717s on order
Also can't work out if GN will get any 700s, or if services which currently are GN in scope will be operated by TL branded 700s

Class 700s will not normally work to Kings Cross.

Southern
+32 377s from TL
Was there something about some 377s from Southern going to Southeastern, or did that not pan out?

30-something units are speculated. Most likely 377/1s as before.

And that's as far as I know. Feedback is needed, I'm sure this is wrong multiple times, but it's a start to get it all sorted out in my mind!

.....

 

[swt_passenger]

I expect Mordac's numbers were allowing for his 6 x 387/1s that have already moved to GN for training and route clearance etc?

The transfer of 6 to Hornsey was reported a few days ago by Class377/5 in the Class 700 introduction thread.

 

[D365]

I expect Mordac's numbers were allowing for his 6 x 387/1s that have already moved to GN for training and route clearance etc?

The transfer of 6 to Hornsey was reported a few days ago by Class377/5 in the Class 700 introduction thread.

My apologies. First assumption was that he got his numbers confused with the original planning for the 377/5s. However they are not in public service yet.

 

[Mordac]

I expect Mordac's numbers were allowing for his 6 x 387/1s that have already moved to GN for training and route clearance etc?

The transfer of 6 to Hornsey was reported a few days ago by Class377/5 in the Class 700 introduction thread.

That's correct. As you say, I was going off the into provided by class377/5, and yeah, I know they aren't in service yet, but they've gone over.

Also, I know 12 319s are going to Northern, but 4 are already at Wolverton and out of the TL rosters, hence why I only included 8 to go.

Thanks for all the info, though!

 

[D365]

Personally, I find it a bit confusing that you've not distinguished between units in service and units in testing/training/going between operators. But it's up to you.

 

[RobShipway]

I am presuming that the 32 377s that Southern receives from TL will replace the 19 class 313's which will go to scrap and possibly replace some of the class 455 fleet.

I know that the 6 remaining class 442's will be replaced by 2018 by either new trains or trains sourced from elsewhere. Could this possibly be done with the class 379 with DC 3rd rail shoes added which if the BEMU testing is successful would also be able to replace the class 171 trains?

 

[Brian Aylott]

I am presuming that the 32 377s that Southern receives from TL will replace the 19 class 313's which will go to scrap and possibly replace some of the class 455 fleet

Shouldn't presume that
Brian

 

[CosherB]

Shouldn't presume that
Brian

So what should Robbies presume?

 

[Domh245]

Shouldn't presume that
Brian

Quite. We've been told time and time again that the 313s and 455s will live to see out the end of this current franchise at least (455s having their workload reduced towards the end of course). The 32 377s will just about cover the loss of the units to southeastern, or not if the 36x 377/1 rumour is true. I'd be surprised if the 379s were bought over specifically for use as IPEMUs, as in theory the kit used on the 379 should be easily installed on the existing fleets of electrostars.

 

[hwl]

I am presuming that the 32 377s that Southern receives from TL will replace the 19 class 313's which will go to scrap and possibly replace some of the class 455 fleet.

I know that the 6 remaining class 442's will be replaced by 2018 by either new trains or trains sourced from elsewhere. Could this possibly be done with the class 379 with DC 3rd rail shoes added which if the BEMU testing is successful would also be able to replace the class 171 trains?

You presume wrong again...
You regularly suggest the SN 455 and 313 are going to the scrap heap when they aren't.

The proposed changes to the 2018 timetable mean fewer southern services are transferring to Thameslink so Southern will need more trains than originally planned.

Southern are also looking at battery IPEMU for Marshlink which will need some more electrostars for cascade /conversion.

 

[physics34]

As has been said the unallocated 319s and 365s could replace the 313s and 455s early...but there are also mutterings about the 319s going to supplement LMs 323s.

There also may be enough 377s to replace the 6 (soon to be remaining ) 442s early when all is said and done.

 

[D365]

...but there are also mutterings about the 319s going to supplement LMs 323s.

The Northern 323s are more likely, if they need any other additional stock there's the TPE Class 350/4s and the Anglia/HC Class 360s.

There also may be enough 377s to replace the 6 (soon to be remaining ) 442s in 3018 when all 8s said and done.

Well I wouldn't be surprised if Thameslink ends up taking that long

 

[physics34]

Quite. We've been told time and time again that the 313s and 455s will live to see out the end of this current franchise at least (455s having their workload reduced towards the end of course). The 32 377s will just about cover the loss of the units to southeastern, or not if the 36x 377/1 rumour is true. I'd be surprised if the 379s were bought over specifically for use as IPEMUs, as in theory the kit used on the 379 should be easily installed on the existing fleets of electrostars.

Don't forget southern will have more 377s avaliable also when TL start running the Horsham and Brighton to London Bridge services as well as the Peak Grinsteads and Littlehamptons.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

The Northern 323s are more likely, if they need any other additional stock there's the TPE Class 350/4s and the Anglia/HC Class 360s.



Well I wouldn't be surprised if Thameslink ends up taking that long

Ha ha since been edited..although you could be right ha ha

 

[RobShipway]

You presume wrong again...
You regularly suggest the SN 455 and 313 are going to the scrap heap when they aren't.

The proposed changes to the 2018 timetable mean fewer southern services are transferring to Thameslink so Southern will need more trains than originally planned.

Southern are also looking at battery IPEMU for Marshlink which will need some more electrostars for cascade /conversion.

Not as regularly as people suggest that the class 442's should be used by TPE...

The class 313's are from 1976 and are 12 years older than the class 442's and the class 455 are six years older than the class 442 trains, so I would be expecting those to be scrapped before the class 442 fleet despite the class 442 trains using components that may date to the 1950's/1960's.

Now personally, when AGA start getting there new Aventra and Flirt trains, for me the only place that the 30 class 379's could go from 2018 would be to Southern to work alongside the class 377's. The class 379's I suspect will either directly or indirectly replace the class 313 and 455 units.

I can see the class 379's taking over from the class 377's on the Brighton - London Victoria route and also replacing the class 171's on the Marshlink route as IPEMU has already been proven to work with the class 379's. The question will be if IPEMU will work with having 3rd rail shoegear underneath as well.

You may also find the class 379's replacing the class 377's on the East Croydon - Watford service.

 

[swt_passenger]

...You may also find the class 379's replacing the class 377's on the East Croydon - Watford service.

Why would they even need to consider that? They'll have more than enough dual voltage 377/2s already, and to run the entire service as 8 car.

 

[Domh245]

The class 313's are from 1976 and are 12 years older than the class 442's and the class 455 are six years older than the class 442 trains, so I would be expecting those to be scrapped before the class 442 fleet despite the class 442 trains using components that may date to the 1950's/1960's.

What you've done there is just assume that trains get scrapped once the reach a certain age. The 442s could easily soldier on (probably) but they don't have anywhere else to go, so they'll be headed to the scrapyard. The 455s however do have a future use, so they won't be scrapped yet. The 313s are similar, their use on the Coastway lines is guaranteed for a while because the platforms are too short for 160m long trains.

Now personally, when AGA start getting there new Aventra and Flirt trains, for me the only place that the 30 class 379's could go from 2018 would be to Southern to work alongside the class 377's. The class 379's I suspect will either directly or indirectly replace the class 313 and 455 units.

30 units is large enough to prevent them being a microfleet, so they could go anywhere in the country that is electrified (which would be easier than retrofitting them with pickup gear, refitting the interior to a southern spec, and redoing all of the software)

I can see the class 379's taking over from the class 377's on the Brighton - London Victoria route and also replacing the class 171's on the Marshlink route as IPEMU has already been proven to work with the class 379's. The question will be if IPEMU will work with having 3rd rail shoegear underneath as well.

You may also find the class 379's replacing the class 377's on the East Croydon - Watford service.

Using all of the 379s on the BML would give you 9x 12 car trains (allowing 3 out for maintenance) which I'm not sure would be enough to fully operate it, and that is before you start taking them away for your Marshlink and Watford services.

I can't think of any reason why the presence of shoegear would affect the IPEMU part of the train, after all they are effectively just an extension of the train's main power bus.

 

[hwl]

Not as regularly as people suggest that the class 442's should be used by TPE...

The class 313's are from 1976 and are 12 years older than the class 442's and the class 455 are six years older than the class 442 trains, so I would be expecting those to be scrapped before the class 442 fleet despite the class 442 trains using components that may date to the 1950's/1960's.

Now personally, when AGA start getting there new Aventra and Flirt trains, for me the only place that the 30 class 379's could go from 2018 would be to Southern to work alongside the class 377's. The class 379's I suspect will either directly or indirectly replace the class 313 and 455 units.

I can see the class 379's taking over from the class 377's on the Brighton - London Victoria route and also replacing the class 171's on the Marshlink route as IPEMU has already been proven to work with the class 379's. The question will be if IPEMU will work with having 3rd rail shoegear underneath as well.

You may also find the class 379's replacing the class 377's on the East Croydon - Watford service.

At least 455 and 313 have doors in the right place and electric that work better than 442s...


C2C will be looking for at least 17x 4car EMUs from late 2019.
The next EM franchsie will also be looking for EMUs.

The 379 leasing costs are very high so expect an off lease period to wait for reality to catch up with the particular ROSCO (the only deal they ever did).

The units suggest for Marshlink are 377s...

 

[MatthewRead]

Why can't the 319's and 365's just go to GWR like they were destined to, so they want a standadized fleet thy could still use them on line between Bristol-Cardiif-Swansea.

 

[Townsend Hook]

Why can't the 319's and 365's just go to GWR like they were destined to, so they want a standadized fleet thy could still use them on line between Bristol-Cardiif-Swansea.

The only services GWR run into Swansea are the Londons, and AFAIK the majority of trains they run from Cardiff to Bristol continue to Taunton or Portsmouth, neither of which are under the wires. Probably far more cost-effective to keep the services direct with one fleet of units than to lease a load of EMUs just for the sake of it. Not to mention the extra congestion it would cause at Temple Meads..

 

[43096]

You presume wrong again...
You regularly suggest the SN 455 and 313 are going to the scrap heap when they aren't.

The proposed changes to the 2018 timetable mean fewer southern services are transferring to Thameslink so Southern will need more trains than originally planned.

Southern are also looking at battery IPEMU for Marshlink which will need some more electrostars for cascade /conversion.

Why do Southern need more Electrostars for that? They get extras as a result of the 387s going to Great Northern, as the 377/5s are then available as extras for Southern.

 

[43074]

Why can't the 319's and 365's just go to GWR like they were destined to, so they want a standadized fleet thy could still use them on line between Bristol-Cardiif-Swansea.

Because they have no need for them with the extra 387s and AT300s that have been ordered?

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

The only services GWR run into Swansea are the Londons, and AFAIK the majority of trains they run from Cardiff to Bristol continue to Taunton or Portsmouth, neither of which are under the wires. Probably far more cost-effective to keep the services direct with one fleet of units than to lease a load of EMUs just for the sake of it. Not to mention the extra congestion it would cause at Temple Meads..

The Swansea - Bath EMU service has been mooted several times by various organisations but I guess that will be a matter for the next franchise (W&B or GWR) when the wires actually reach Swansea.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk

 

[Brian Aylott]

Thameslink
28 x 700s delivered
51 x 319s remain

Southern
199 x 377s

Changes
Thameslink
87 x 700s to come
4 x 319s for Northern (8 have recently gone)

GN
44 x 313s to be surplus - not certain for scrap
40 x 365s could be retained

Brian

 

[theageofthetra]

Will this leave Thameslink of being in the unenviable position of being the only TOC operating a fleet without charging sockets or toilets despite it being the newest?

 

[Mordac]

Will this leave Thameslink of being in the unenviable position of being the only TOC operating a fleet without charging sockets or toilets despite it being the newest?

700s have toilets.

 

[Bishopstone]

700s have toilets.

And sockets in part of the rear coach, which is permanently declassified.

 

[swt_passenger]

Why can't the 319's and 365's just go to GWR like they were destined to, so they want a standadized fleet thy could still use them on line between Bristol-Cardiif-Swansea.

Network Rail always preferred 110 mph EMUs for the London?Oxford/Newbury part of the route to allow some use on the mains. The 387s cover that requirement. Then standardisation on a reduced number of the same EMU type offset by an increased number of 802s did the rest.

 

[158722]

4 x 319s for Northern (8 have recently gone)

Brian

319004, 005, 218, 219, 431, 442, 448 & 456 being the 8 by any chance? All at Wolverton?

424, 434, 450 & 458 still with TSGN, but also for Northern?

 

[Brian Aylott]

319004, 005, 218, 219, 431, 442, 448 & 456 being the 8 by any chance? All at Wolverton?

424, 434, 450 & 458 still with TSGN, but also for Northern?

All yes except no report yet of 456 at Wolverton
Brian