So Labour seem to want to stop the recruitment of care workers abroad (...) A silly decision. The Labour Party seems to be only interested in Reform UK voters, and to hell with the rest of us. Don't they understand that people with hardline views on immigration will just vote for Reform or Badenoch's Tories, and no amount of trying to poach those votes will make them come to the Labour Party? Don't they understand that the local election results were more about Labour and the Tories losing rather than Reform "winning", in the sense that former Labour and Tory voters likely stayed at home out of disgust.
Yeah, that's First Past The Post in action for you. We mock and scoff at the American electoral system, particularly the preposterous aspect of swing states basically determining the outcome of any presidential election, but whilst not as terrible, FPTP in the UK creates a much similar dynamic in as much as that all parties, though particularly the main two, i.e. Labour and the Tories are beholden to a small number of voters in select target constituencies. It was like this in the run up to election and it is like this once again in the run up to the next one. That is not to say, every and all decision made by number 10 is just to please this handful of voters but suffice to say, they are much more prominent in the minds of political strategist and government pollsters than say, a Labour voter from London or Bristol, despite the fact that their opinions shouldn't matter more than those voters, but they do.
I don't want to start a long-winded discussion about proportional representation in this thread, but suffice to say, my opinion is that, setting aside party politics, we will not see a properly progressive government again in this country until proportional representation is introduced. And when I say progressive, I simply mean strongly centre-left, nothing far-left or ridiculous. Just centre-left, social democratic. Proper investment in housing, science, transport, health and education. Long-term commitments to combat poverty, strengthen workers' rights and invest in the economy through health, education and public infrastructure. All things Labour has promised to a degree, but not properly delivered in this parliament so far. And yes, I think many good policies have been introduced or proposed, but they're overshadowed by an overall lack of direction, terrible communication and a crack-down on the most vulnerable in society that should never have been allowed to go forward. This is a not-so-great-Labour government. And in a country dominated by a small c-conservative mindset and a rabid right-wing press, that is simply not good enough.
Though, ironically, illegal migration is in all likelihood (though it's hard to be sure) a small fraction of migration generally. We go back to my issue with everything frothing at the mouths about small boats and how disastrous it is for our migration figures. You knock out the number of small boat arrivals from the migration statistics and the overall net migration figure comes down by 20,000 odd. Which considering net migration is still in the hundreds of thousands doesn't make much difference.
The public might think that the majority of those who show up in the net migration figures are here illegally but they're really not. The vast majority of migrants are here because we gave them visas to come here. Now, you can easily reduce those numbers to zero or near enough but you have to accept the trade offs. Most migration is students and care/health workers.
We can cut the number of student visas but we have to then accept the collapse of a big chunk of higher education and many of the jobs lost will be in areas where the university is a big employer and one of the main sources of well paid roles alongside the loss of soft power as young adults go elsewhere so don't have fond memories of Britain when they get into more senior roles as they get on in their careers.
We can cut the number of people coming here on care visas (and it appears that Labour are going to do so) but then we have to accept that it's going to be even harder to find people to do the heavy and demanding work that comes with providing care. Good luck finding enough Brits who are willing to do it at the sort of take home pay that's offered. So either the care system risks collapse or the costs are going to have to skyrocket.
We can cut the number of people who come here to work in the health service (either directly in the NHS or in GP surgeries and whatnot) but, again, I'm not sure that the NHS and GP surgeries are really swamped with qualified medical personnel at the moment...
All of these are perfectly legitimate ways of reducing migration and, indeed, are the main way of doing as they're main the source of migrants into the UK. But they all come with scary trade offs which is why the Tories kept promising they could bring migration down by being cruel to asylum seekers and whanging on about them at great length because they knew full well actually tackling the problem would come with all sorts of nasty consequences as they were the party of milk, honey and sunlit uplands. Presumably Labour think they've come up with a way of clamping down on care worker visas without crashing the care sector. We shall see I suppose!
Thank you. Yes, indeed. It is often touted online that facts don't care about your feelings. Well, that's true, but it cuts both ways. And whichever way you twist it, illegal immigration is a drop in the ocean concerning the total number of arrivals. Though as you say, reducing those numbers comes with considerable risks and downsides.
I don't think there is an easy fix. I think the example of Denmark (with the Danish Labour party led government) shows that a harsh crackdown on illegal migration and asylum applications can at least create the impression of things being "under control", so it may well be a good PR move, even if yes, the more levelheaded of us will no doubt realise it is not going to have a profound impact on society or the economy one way or the other. Wages aren't magically going to grow, housing is not magically going to get any cheaper, poverty is not going to go away etc. To the extent immigration has put pressure on those aspects of the economy, it's legal migration and as you say, limiting that can have nasty side-effects too.
But yes, from a PR perspective, perhaps go after illegal immigration, like the Danish Labour party did. But I would say, as in the case of Denmark, also double down on integration efforts too, as it is this aspect that is often overlooked in the UK.
And more importantly, though there seems to be a lack of political will regarding this, create the economic incentives for the right kind of legal immigration. Denmark has had climbing numbers of immigration, but mostly high-skilled and in expanding job sectors, which for a variety of reasons bothers the Danes less, also often due to the origin of these immigrants (Europe, the US & Canada, East Asia etc.). Though it must be mentioned that Denmark also has many more provisions ensuring adequate access to affordable housing and better working rights for their native population, which means that people there also feel less "threatened" by immigrants from an economic standpoint.
But the UK shot itself in the foot with Brexit, shutting out a lot of EU migrants and, ironically, creating the conditions for an influx of immigrants from non-western countries, which either do not stay long enough to contribute to the economy long-term, or struggle to integrate if they are from a cultural background which is a lot different than that of native Brits and additionally also sometimes work in sectors where Brits can feel threatened and/or at risk of their wages being undercut.
So in conclusion, I think the Labour party will have to acknowledge that reducing net-migration substantially will not be good for the economy. Net-migration numbers can be adjusted, also reduced, but it is largely creating the conditions for the right kind of legal migration that matters, which goes hand in hand with expanding worker rights and protections and creating the conditions for a strong domestic workforce. On the other hand, a crackdown on illegal migration is mostly a PR move, though that could still be a good one for the government to take, rather than going after students or care-workers, either of which are not the most common immigration "bogey-man" in the first place, last time I checked, anyway.