The next UK HSR (High Speed Rail) project?

[zwk500]

Well the timetable is hardly in equilibrium at the moment is it?

Well the coastal strip is where the stations have to be because its where the people live!
It's ~80 ish kilmoetres from Brighton to Southampton, which means stops at least Portsmouth and Worthing and maybe Bognor Regis, based on Kyushu Shinkansen experience.

Even 20km spacings gets you ~80mph average speed, 30km gets you ~110mph.

Doesn't regular stops defeat the purpose of High-Speed Rail? If you're stopping every 20km you may as well design for a reasonable service speed of 110mph and save yourself a bucket load of money.

 

[drb61]

We have to bear in mind that the purpose of HS lines is not just to speed up long distance journeys but to free up capacity on existing routes currently shared with local services. With that in mind I think the first stage of any Anglo-Scottish upgrade has to deal with the congested Glasgow - Carstairs section encompassing a combination of elements such as: -

• A new line from Rutherglen to Newton, bypassing Cambuslang
• Quadrupling of some sections (Newton East - Uddingston Junction, Motherwell - Sheildmuir, Law Junction - Lanark Junction)
• Flyovers / Dive-unders to eliminate conflicts with local services (Rutherglen East, Newton East, Lesmahagow Junction, Shieldmuir and Law Junction)
• New platforms at Glasgow Central (on the piers of the old bridge) for a 'javelin' style service to Lanark in around 35 minutes using the upgraded route to Motherwell
• Additional turnback platforms at Hyndland and / or Exhibition Centre (to allow Shotts and Carstairs services to be diverted via the Argyle Line)
• Uddingston, Shieldmuir and Carluke stations completely rebuilt to accommodate a four-track layout with two platforms (on the Bellshill, Wishaw and Lanark roads respectively) + two adjacent through lines.
• A new platform 5 on the west side of Motherwell station allowing Glasgow - Newton services to be extended to Motherwell via Bellshill in order to improve connectivity with the Cathcart Circle stations
• Line Speed upgrades on existing sections

As well as chopping a significant amount of time off long distance services and complementing HS2 services once extended to Scotland these upgrades would facilitate a more regular and reliable clockface service pattern on the Argyle Line, Lanark and Shotts services, whose timetables have become increasingly 'skewed' in recent years by the need to fit around the increased number of longer distance services they share the route with.

 

[AndrewE]

"Trains continuing south from Old Oak would save terminal capacity at Euston and could be dealt with more easily/with fewer platforms in succession at a through station"

How do you get the trains through central London? gradient limits still apply to lines in tunnels. Not to mention that a High Speed Line provides precisely the wrong kind of capacity for the Brighton Line. It doesn't need trains at 150mph+, it needs space for trains to stop at key stations like Clapham Junction, East Croydon, Gatwick Airport, Haywards Heath and Brighton.

Last time I was there, going south from Old Oak was nowhere near central London.
And I'm sure that (like taking non-stop trains off the S end of the WCML) removing Brighton-to-London (Old Oak) passengers would free up capacity for semi-fasts and stopping trains on the existing lines.

 

[philosopher]

Just out of curiosity, what do people think will be the next high speed rail project in the UK after HS2 and 'High Speed North', if at all, and explain your reasoning.

For example, I think a high speed line will be built mirroring the ECML, in the same way HS2 mostly mirrors fhe WCML, as the current upgrades to the ECML are reminiscent of the last ones to the WCML before HS2 was proposed, and HS2 was built becuase the capacity boost of that upgrade ran out of space, so more space was needed, and I can see a repeat of that with the ECML.

But what are your own thoughts?

Crewe to Holyhead which would connect HS2 to an Irish Sea tunnel from Holyhead to Dublin.

If an Irish Sea tunnel was ever to get constructed, Holyhead to Dublin I suspect be the route that would have the best financial prospects. A new high speed railway from Crewe to Holyhead would probably be required for trains from London to Dublin to be competitive time wise with flights.

 

[MattRat]

Crewe to Holyhead which would connect HS2 to an Irish Sea tunnel from Holyhead to Dublin.

If an Irish Sea tunnel was ever to get constructed, Holyhead to Dublin I suspect be the route that would have the best financial prospects. A new high speed railway from Crewe to Holyhead would probably be required for trains from London to Dublin to be competitive time wise with flights.

Back in the day, there might have just been a fast ferry or hovercraft instead, with people from a high speed line transferring over.

 

[HSTEd]

Doesn't regular stops defeat the purpose of High-Speed Rail? If you're stopping every 20km you may as well design for a reasonable service speed of 110mph and save yourself a bucket load of money.

Well that mgiht be the traditional "western" experience, but Japan disagrees.
They operate 260km/h multiple units on 20km stopping patterns all the time.

Also worth noting that reducing top speed from 260-300km/h to 170km/h is not going to substantially reduce costs, just as dropping from 186mph to 125mph for HS1 was not going to save any significant amount of money.

Modern high speed multiple units are so high performance that they can brute force the average-speed vs stopping frequency dillemma, at least to some degree.
And relief lines only relieve if they are more attractive than the regular service - and even stopping every 20km they manage an average speed of nearly 140km/h.

 

[Clansman]

I can imagine the next HSR project in the UK, aside from NPR if it was ever reinstated, would be Glagsow to Carstairs via Eurocentral, with a spurs from the Shotts line heading to Edinburgh and from south of Kirknewton heading through Carstairs, as per Transport Scotland's previous studies.

Thereafter I can imagine the next step would be Edinburgh to Newcastle either partly with quad tracking through to Dunbar and HSR the rest of the way, or HSR throughout (again as per TS studies).

So with these 2 you get;

• Glasgow to Edinburgh in 35 minutes
• Glasgow to Newcastle in 90 minutes
• Edinburgh to Newcastle in under 45 minutes
• Edinburgh to Carlisle 6 minutes quicker
• Edinburgh to London in around 3 hours (with NPR).

 

[Sussex Ben]

I thought north ECML was the problem area, not south. Although, it could be all of it....

The northern end certainly has its issues, albeit ones I’m less familiar with. I guess the key thing here would be to establish whether there is enough demand for several high speed services in that corridor in future, especially once many of the London flows have gone across to HS2.

 

[berneyarms]

London/Dublin numbers are already suppressed because they already have to go through a hard border to travel, imposed by airline security.

What utter tosh. Leaving aside Covid, which clearly has impacted numbers, Dublin/London was the busiest air corridor in Europe pre-pandemic. I don't see that changing once life starts returning to normal.

 

[Bald Rick]

"Trains continuing south from Old Oak would save terminal capacity at Euston and could be dealt with more easily/with fewer platforms in succession at a through station"

Last time I was there, going south from Old Oak was nowhere near central London.
And I'm sure that (like taking non-stop trains off the S end of the WCML) removing Brighton-to-London (Old Oak) passengers would free up capacity for semi-fasts and stopping trains on the existing lines.

Two things:

1) how many passengers actually want to travel from Manchester and the Midlands to Gatwick and Brighton. A look at the current timetable is a good clue.

2) how would you actually build such a link?

 

[mike57]

Looking at where we may be when HS2 is open I would have thought ECML through Durham would be high up the list, maybe something that is 140mph, its quite a short distance in HSR terms. In reality, given the state of the national and railway finance I think any further HSR construction is so far in the future that the needs may well have changed by the time the finance becomes available. I think we will be in long period of minimal (no?) investment in major infrastructure upgrades.

 

[HSTEd]

What utter tosh. Leaving aside Covid, which clearly has impacted numbers, Dublin/London was the busiest air corridor in Europe pre-pandemic. I don't see that changing once life starts returning to normal.

It can be the busiest air corridor in Europe and still have numbers be suppressed by the border/airline security?

I just mean traffic would be larger if it was possible to get there in reasonale time without that border security?

 

[berneyarms]

It can be the busiest air corridor in Europe and still have numbers be suppressed by the border/airline security?

I just mean traffic would be larger if it was possible to get there in reasonale time without that border security?

If that were the case there would be much larger ferry passenger numbers.

There have been Irish garda or immigration service identity checks for all passengers arriving into Ireland since the 1990s, and there are no checks on arriving passengers from Ireland at UK airports save for intelligence led checks. There are no border checks on departure other than flashing ID at the gate.

Getting through the airports isn’t exactly difficult - arriving 90 minutes before a flight departs is all that’s necessary, and on arrival you’re generally through without delay.

I have seen absolutely zero evidence that people are not flying because of this. Quite the opposite. The numbers shot up when Ryanair arrived and decimated the foot passenger traffic on ferries which has never recovered.

I don’t know where you’re getting this notion from, but it’s not based on reality.

 

[HST43257]

I may be biased but I'd focus on the HS2 Eastern Leg and NPR through Leeds then the northern ECML corridor to get proper journey times to Scotland

Approximate times using the HS2 HSUK route north of York

London to Edinburgh 2h35
London to Glasgow 3h00
Birmingham to Edinburgh 1h50
Birmingham to Glasgow 2h25

Take 35 min off for Newcastle times and a further 35 min off for York times

 

[MattRat]

If that were the case there would be much larger ferry passenger numbers.

I have seen absolutely zero evidence that people are not flying because of this. Quite the opposite. The numbers shot up when Ryanair arrived and decimated the foot passenger traffic on ferries which has never recovered.

One thing to bear in mind is the ferries are achingly slow. Barely anyone travels from Dover to Calais anymore by ferry since the fast ferry went.

If there was a tunnel or even just a fast ferry, it would compete with air much better.

 

[Bald Rick]

I may be biased but I'd focus on the HS2 Eastern Leg and NPR through Leeds then the northern ECML corridor to get proper journey times to Scotland

Approximate times using the HS2 HSUK route north of York

London to Edinburgh 2h35
London to Glasgow 3h00
Birmingham to Edinburgh 1h50
Birmingham to Glasgow 2h25

Take 35 min off for Newcastle times and a further 35 min off for York times

you could get London to Glasgow and Edinburgh in 2h30 simply by extending HS2 north from Cheshire.
won’t be happening any time soon though. And Birmingham to each in under 2h.

 

[HSTEd]

If that were the case there would be much larger ferry passenger numbers.

The ferries are so slow as to render them basically worthless for passenger transport in the modern era.

They are not in any way in meaningful competition with the airlines.

 

[Bald Rick]

The ferries are so slow as to render them basically worthless for passenger transport in the modern era.

They are not in any way in meaningful competition with the airlines.

well yes.

But in 2019 more people flew London - Dublin than flew / trained / coached London - Glasgow (which, obviously, has no border control). More still flew to Amsterdam. Border control is really not a constraint on London - Dublin traffic.

 

[MattRat]

well yes.

But in 2019 more people flew London - Dublin than flew / trained / coached London - Glasgow (which, obviously, has no border control). More still flew to Amsterdam. Border control is really not a constraint on London - Dublin traffic.

But doesn't that also mean improving non-flying methods should be viable? Which means why are we discussing this, and not a rail tunnel or combined rail and ferry link (with fast ferries).

 

[cle]

It can be the busiest air corridor in Europe and still have numbers be suppressed by the border/airline security?

I just mean traffic would be larger if it was possible to get there in reasonale time without that border security?

London-Paris was busiest by far, until the Eurostar opened. And that had/has a hard border outbound, regardless of EU, CTA etc... UK/Ireland are so connected, it won't go anywhere.

you could get London to Glasgow and Edinburgh in 2h30 simply by extending HS2 north from Cheshire.
won’t be happening any time soon though. And Birmingham to each in under 2h.

Agree. Why invest on HS down the East Coast for Scotland when ~50% is there to Lancs. Newcastle-Edinburgh accelerating just detracts from existing HS2 investment.

 

[HSTEd]

Which means why are we discussing this, and not a rail tunnel or combined rail and ferry link (with fast ferries).

Because people got scared of the big numbers for the IRish Sea crossing by using the upper 95% confidence boundary to justify never building anything. The same thing that has done for all other high speed rail projects we might discuss.

 

[Bald Rick]

Agree. Why invest on HS down the East Coast for Scotland when ~50% is there to Lancs. Newcastle-Edinburgh accelerating just detracts from existing HS2 investment.

the usual argument is that the topography is easier on the east coast. Whilst that might be true, as HS2 shows that doesn’t make it cheaper.

 

[HSTEd]

the usual argument is that the topography is easier on the east coast. Whilst that might be true, as HS2 shows that doesn’t make it cheaper.

Well once you get north of Preston there is basically noone till the central belt apart from Carlisle. There are actual population centres that far north on the East Coast which you can serve if you go that side.

You can extend north along the west coast from the vicinity of Wigan or wherever, or you can extend along the east coast from Marsden......

 

[MattRat]

Because people got scared of the big numbers for the IRish Sea crossing by using the upper 95% confidence boundary to justify never building anything. The same thing that has done for all other high speed rail projects we might discuss.

I was just trying to get things back on track (pun intended). If someone really doesn't understand the numbers, maybe it's best to ignore them?

 

[berneyarms]

The ferries are so slow as to render them basically worthless for passenger transport in the modern era.

They are not in any way in meaningful competition with the airlines.

Well it was your insinuation that air passenger numbers were suppressed between Dublin and London supposedly because of border controls.

I am making the point that there are only two ways off the island of Ireland - one is flying and the other is by ferry.

Ferry passenger numbers slumped in the 1990s and have never recovered. Air passenger numbers between Dublin and London have grown year on year.

I have yet to meet anyone here in Ireland who wasn’t prepared to take either of those options. We are not a nation of hermits.

That tells me that your theory is not in any way accurate.

There is absolutely zero enthusiasm for a tunnel from the Irish government so I think that you can write it off for the foreseeable future. Dublin Airport is just finishing construction of a brand new runway, so I think that you can take it as read where the future of passenger travel lies into and out of Ireland.

 

[nw1]

Not sure if there is a need for any others to be honest. Going north is the only direction where there are really significant distances in the UK which make high-speed rail worthwhile.

There is a case IMO for adding non-London services to HS2 though, similar to how some non-Paris services use HSLs in France. Routing services onto HS2 from Oxford might be worthwhile for instance, it could open up fast services from the Thames Valley and south coast to the north. Likewise some link round the southern edge of Birmingham (roughly paralleling the M42) to route services from the SW to the north onto HS2? (Maybe this is planned already?)

As to other possible HSL routes: London to Exeter was possible under 2h in the 1980s (not sure what current timings are) which to me sounds fast enough, so not sure if there would be the need. Likewise London to Bristol is pretty fast now on the existing lines.

 

[MattRat]

Well it was your insinuation that air passenger numbers were suppressed between Dublin and London supposedly because of border controls.

I am making the point that there are only two ways off the island of Ireland - one is flying and the other is by ferry.

Ferry passenger numbers slumped in the 1990s and have never recovered. Air passenger numbers between Dublin and London have grown year on year.

I have yet to meet anyone here in Ireland who wasn’t prepared to take either of those options. We are not a nation of hermits.

That tells me that your theory is not in any way accurate.

There is absolutely zero enthusiasm for a tunnel from the Irish government so I think that you can write it off for the foreseeable future. Dublin Airport is just finishing construction of a brand new runway, so I think that you can take it as read where the future of passenger travel lies into and out of Ireland.

It's not impossible to compete without a tunnel though. You could built a line to Holyhead and then have a connection to a fast ferry.

 

[HSTEd]

It's not impossible to compete without a tunnel though. You could built a line to Holyhead and then have a connection to a fast ferry.

Unless your ferry can do a couple hundred knots its not going to be competitive on a crossing that long!

 

[MattRat]

Unless your ferry can do a couple hundred knots its not going to be competitive on a crossing that long!

The ferry used to compete with the Eurotunnel from Dover. Unless the gap is somehow wider?

 

[zwk500]

The ferry used to compete with the Eurotunnel from Dover. Unless the gap is somehow wider?

About 30 miles wider!

It's not impossible to compete without a tunnel though. You could built a line to Holyhead and then have a connection to a fast ferry.

London to Holyhead is a smidge under 300 miles, with HS2 lets say that's possible in 1.5 hours. The current Fast Ferry takes 2h15 hours to Dublin. So total travel time of 3h45 hours + (say) 20 mins checkin, for 4h05 mins total.
Ryanair offer 1h15 flights from Gatwick, which is itself 20-30 mins from Victoria. Allowing 1hr for check-in to be generous, and taking a rough transfer time of Dublin Airport to City Centre of 30mins, you're left with 45 mins to get from gate to taxi rank and still beat the ferry.