Theoretical plan to tell how busy a train will be

[ys123]

This is all theoretical but I wish it wasnt.

How easy/hard would it be to make an app/website that can tell you how busy specific trains are?

Google Maps has a similar feature to tell you how busy shops are. You can check in advance how busy a shop will be at any time based on the past i.e. I can check on Tuesday how busy a shop will be on a Thursday at 2pm based on the past, but it also shows live how busy a shop is right now. This works for the majority of shops but not all and of course it's not gonna be 100% accurate but I find its accurate most of the times I use it. So the technology is there.

If it were to happen for trains what would be the best way to do it?

Should it work based on how busy a particular train is for the entire route or between stations along the route? I.e. A Manchester to Bournemouth train could say "busy", or it could have options to choose between big stations along the route, i.e. Manchester to Birmingham "Overcrowded", Birmingham to Reading "Busy", Reading to Bournemouth "Undercrowded"?

How would the app/website get the knowledge of how busy trains are expected to be? It could give a few thousand people All Line Rovers for a year to report how busy specific trains are but that is probably not the cheapest way

 

[broadgage]

Under normal conditions it should be fairly easy for a computer program to predict the likely loading of a train, based on past experience.

However it is the "not normal" circumstances that are of more interest and past experience is no guide to the present or near future in this respect.

For example if a service runs every 30 minutes, then the cancellation of the 10-30 is likely to result in crowding on the 11-00. No way can the crowding on the 11-00 be predicted before the cancellation of the 10-30 is known about.

Also when two routes serve the same destination, the closure of one route is almost certain to lead to crowding on the alternative but this cant be forecast before the closure is known about.

 

[ys123]

Under normal conditions it should be fairly easy for a computer programme to predict the likely loading of a train, based on past experience.

However it is the "not normal" circumstances that are of more interest and past experience is no guide to the present or near future in this respect.

To get it right 80% of the time is still good. Also it should be easy when the 1030 is cancelled most of the 1030 guys will be going on the 1100 so you just the amounts togther. Where it's more complicated is if there was a variety of options to choose from when there's a delay lets say there's 3 possibilites althought it could add 33% of the 1030 train to each of the possible alternative trains.

 

[fredk]

If you could get a data feed of the loadings measured from onboard sensors then it would be possible.

 

[ys123]

If you could get a data feed of the loadings measured from onboard sensors then it would be possible.

Similar to what the Dutch developed. I've no clue whether it's actually in use and whether it works.
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/train-crowds-app

 

[mark-h]

Virgin Trains East Coast have a Seat Availability Checker on their website. This will be based on "normal" operation.

For example if a service runs every 30 minutes, then the cancellation of the 10-30 is likely to result in crowding on the 11-00. No way can the crowding on the 11-00 be predicted before the cancellation of the 10-30 is known about.

This information would likely come too late for people to change their travel plans although some may choose to delay their journey until the backlog clears.

What could be taken into account more easily is planned events such as sports matches. For advance purchase tickets the yield management system will encourage travelers to use less busy services by offering lower fares.

 

[Master29]

Virgin Trains East Coast have a Seat Availability Checker on their website. This will be based on "normal" operation.


Don`t VTEC also have a part of the website stating which trains they believe will be the busiest? Not up to the minute but still better than most TOC`s I suppose.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It needs to be added to the journey planners like the Swiss do. Then you could plan to "avoid trains where I am likely to have to stand".

 

[RailAleFan]

Are enough people flexible enough with their travel plans for advance notice of how busy a service is likely to be to actually make a difference?

I'm thinking, busy trains (or any mode of transport for that matter) are busy when they are busy because that is when people need, rather than choose to travel...

 

[ys123]

Are enough people flexible enough with their travel plans for advance notice of how busy a service is likely to be to actually make a difference?

I'm thinking, busy trains (or any mode of transport for that matter) are busy when they are busy because that is when people need, rather than choose to travel...

If it would only applies to 1% of people travelling by train each day it's still alot of people.

 

[wls1]

Some train companies have seat guides for their peak trains, c2c, Southern, Thameslink, GN and Scotrail are ones that i know of to produce them.
But last minute alterations can effect it. Also its incredibly difficult to accurately create them because one train can have more people on it than another, part time and flexi seasons.

 

[317666]

The SBB (Swiss Railways) journey planner shows how busy a service is expected to be throughout the journey, in both first and second class. It's pretty accurate from my experience!

 

[ys123]

The SBB (Swiss Railways) journey planner shows how busy a service is expected to be throughout the journey, in both first and second class. It's pretty accurate from my experience!

Any idea how it works?

 

[317666]

Any idea how it works?

Sadly not, I'd be interested to know myself!

 

[sjm93]

When using the TrainLine app, a thing called busybot asks me how busy my carriage is, and this collects data to predict how busy other trains will be. This is used, for example, when I check live train times now, the app is telling me that there are free seats at the front of the train for the 22:57 KGX - YRK service.

More details here: https://engineering.thetrainline.co...ping-customers-get-a-seat-on-the-right-train/

 

[DerekC]

If you could get a data feed of the loadings measured from onboard sensors then it would be possible.

All modern trains have load-weigh systems as part of their self-levelling suspension. It's very simple in principle to get an output from this which tells you what weight of passengers are in each car. Taking an average weight per passenger tells you how many people are on board.

 

[krus_aragon]

All modern trains have load-weigh systems as part of their self-levelling suspension. It's very simple in principle to get an output from this which tells you what weight of passengers are in each car. Taking an average weight per passenger tells you how many people are on board.

A similar system was part of the IEP specification for the class 80x, for example.

 

[anme]

Similar to what the Dutch developed. I've no clue whether it's actually in use and whether it works.
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/train-crowds-app

The Dutch system is in use and it works. You can see it at ns.nl - look for the 1/2/3 people symbols which show how busy a train is expected to be.

 

[cuccir]

Something along these lines is clearly possible: the question is to what level of precision or reliability.

Without recourse to data, we can make some assertions which I imagine would predict loading with a low but OKish level of precision across the country:

• There will be a positive correlation between train size relative to the average size between stations, and busyness
• There will be a positive correlation between time since the previous service between stations, and busyness
• There will be a positive correlation between proximity of a carriage to the station entrance and its busyness
• There will be a positive correlation between the quality of service's connections to the rest of the network, and busyness
• Services will follow a predictable pattern of busyness based on established daily and weekly rhythms (commute, weekend, etc).

I submit that most of us could use those assertions to make reasonable predictions for relative busyness of services or carriages on a line based on the timetable, train sizes, basic knowledge of UK human geography and station maps. To improve precision would then rely on accessibility of further data.

Step 1 would be to get data to weight the factors above
Step 2 would be to get data to add caveats and complications to the above - the more data, the more nuances we can add! This could be observed loading data, data on reservations for services, data on pricing strategies and in particular when off-peak restrictions kick in on routes, and proxy data such as season ticket numbers or travel to work data.
Step 3 would be to get data on predictable disruptions (sports matches, holidays, events)
Step 4 would be to get 'live' data so that the app can adapt in real time.

Each of these steps would add reliability and precision, depending on the quality of the data you could access!

 

[meridian2]

Slightly off topic, does anyone know of an app based on ticket price rather than time and date of travel? Booking systems I've come across ask when I want to travel, when I often desire the cheapest ticket and I'll work around it. So if I want the cheapest day return to London in the next ten weeks, for example, is there any way of finding that as a priority?

 

[parkender102]

When using the TrainLine app, a thing called busybot asks me how busy my carriage is, and this collects data to predict how busy other trains will be. This is used, for example, when I check live train times now, the app is telling me that there are free seats at the front of the train for the 22:57 KGX - YRK service.

More details here: https://engineering.thetrainline.co...ping-customers-get-a-seat-on-the-right-train/

Virgin Trains Departure Boards at Euston display a similar Loading (or Reserved Seat) Status on the displays above the departure hall. Not sure if the 2 systems are using the same information. Travelling regularly every Friday afternoon from Euston you can see the Departures close to the Off Peak Cut Off Time at 15:01 tend to have 90-100% full capacity on the Reserved Coaches but helpfully always show the All Seat Unreserved coaches as 0% Full. Not a true indication but from experience if you can get to the Unreserved coaches quickly you are normally guaranteed a seat. Even the Unreserved Seats though are filled quickly nearer to departure time – especially the 14:40 to Manchester.
Not sure if the Trainline Loading info or Virgin Loading info can be accessed online or by app elsewhere.

 

[GW43125]

Virgin Trains Departure Boards at Euston display a similar Loading (or Reserved Seat) Status on the displays above the departure hall. Not sure if the 2 systems are using the same information. Travelling regularly every Friday afternoon from Euston you can see the Departures close to the Off Peak Cut Off Time at 15:01 tend to have 90-100% full capacity on the Reserved Coaches but helpfully always show the All Seat Unreserved coaches as 0% Full. Not a true indication but from experience if you can get to the Unreserved coaches quickly you are normally guaranteed a seat. Even the Unreserved Seats though are filled quickly nearer to departure time – especially the 14:40 to Manchester.
Not sure if the Trainline Loading info or Virgin Loading info can be accessed online or by app elsewhere.

VTEC now do this too- displaying reservation levels on the boards.

However, I'm not aware of any way to find this out beforehand other than to make a "dummy" booking and open up the seat selector.

 

[parkender102]

VTEC now do this too- displaying reservation levels on the boards.

However, I'm not aware of any way to find this out beforehand other than to make a "dummy" booking and open up the seat selector.

I noticed that you have the Seat Selector facility on VTEC Services but don’t think this is available on VTWC Services – even though I book my VTWC tickets on the VTEC Website! The best it can offer you on VTWC services is the usual Aisle / Window, Quiet Coach, Table or Airline Seat but not actual Specific Seat Number (although it allocates you one you cannot select from a carriage layout like when booking VTEC services).

 

[ys123]

I noticed that you have the Seat Selector facility on VTEC Services but don’t think this is available on VTWC Services – even though I book my VTWC tickets on the VTEC Website! The best it can offer you on VTWC services is the usual Aisle / Window, Quiet Coach, Table or Airline Seat but not actual Specific Seat Number (although it allocates you one you cannot select from a carriage layout like when booking VTEC services).

This is incorrect as it's also available on VTWC website. After choosing how to collect your tickets, the next screen has an option to choose your seat from a carriage layout. This is not available on the mobile website but it works on a mobile if you use desktop version of the website or just use a computer

 

[northwichcat]

In theory you could implement it in to the PIS displays at stations and have real time updates using automatic passenger counters, so if 75 people board at a station 10 miles down the line when the normal boarding figure is 25 the PIS can show the train is busier than usual.

 

[EbbwJunction1]

Three things occur to me which may or may not be relevant .....

1. A lot of seats are reserved but not taken up because people presumably haven't travelled;
2. I'm sure that a lot of people (and I'm one) travel on the train that they're booked for, but don't sit in the seat that has been reserved for them;
3. I've often reserved a seat, but the ticket says "No specific seat allocated".

How can a system cope with these things?

 

[northwichcat]

1. A lot of seats are reserved but not taken up because people presumably haven't travelled;

The ones with missed connections - easy as the system could know the other service(s) were delayed.

The ones who chose to travel on a different service because their meeting overran or similar - automatic train counters.

 

[Skoodle]

London Overground have an app for customer service staff which I believe is already in use, that uses the coach loading to show how busy each carriage is for a given train. I don't know how effective or useful it is I'm not in customer services and don't have access to it, just remember seeing it in one of the newsletters.

 

[Abpj17]

Isn’t it a rather more difficult technology challenge (unlike other posters, I’m thinking more about if it can actually be done in real time - google, apple etc. basically know where a lot of people are at any given time) because the train is moving? It is the kind of thing that google might get to at some point. You could email/comment stuff and see if it’s piques interest there

And I’m not sure to what extent it’s a bigger problem in the UK - especially London commutes than many other places?

 

[noddingdonkey]

In ideal world, rather than passengers choosing less busy services, the railway would have sufficient capacity that if it knows a specific journey has more reservations than normal it can add extra carriages.

Not beancounter friendly of course, but there is a good argument for future multiple unit orders to be gangwayed and a 153 style single car version produced that could be quickly coupled and decoupled on particular journeys where additional capacity for spikes in demand. (This makes the assumption that future orders provide enough capacity for the regular demand.)

I remember being particularly annoyed when the original Arriva Trains North were running TPE and they let a school party book half a coach worth of seats on a 2car AM peak 158 that was always full and standing without these additional passengers. Having some flexibility to add an extra carriage would have been great.

Do the people who look after unit diagrams get information about services with unusually high levels of reservations so they can try to juggle allocations to put a longer train on if possible?