Thoughts for 2022. How have they panned out?

[Sutton in Ant]

Happy New Year to start off with and I am writing this post to basically say how is 2022 going to be train rolling stock wise?

I know that there has been a mess-up with the South Western Railway new class 701's. I just hope that by April or May 2021? It will all be sorted and the 701's will be in passenger service.

London Northwestern Railway. Will be at some point will be bringing out the new class 730's. This will mean that class 319's and 350/2's will be withdrawn by London Northwestern Railway. I think that some of the 319's will be turned into courier trains like 321's that came off lease with GA. 350/2's when they come off lease. I know that some rail operators will use and lease 350/2's. Whoever it may be? Time will tell.

I have seen that GA is getting a whole lot of new Rolling Stock which means that class 379's will be coming off lease as the flirts 745's are taking their place. What I know is that GN will be leasing the 379's when it leaves GA but this has caused problems is that what is going to happen to class 387's that GN are using? Time will tell. C2C class 387's will also be coming off lease when their orders of class 720s arrive?

My predictions are. 350/2s Will be heading to GWR to cover the welsh lines. Far from that. Your guess is a good as mine.

Have a good 1.

 

[yorksrob]

I just hope that the ECML mk 4's have an assured future.

Same for the remaining IC125's, but the mk 4's are my best hope nowadays of a comfy trip between home and the South.

Hope the vacation express goes from strength to strength.

Hope Northern Rail ends up with enough stock not to endure regular off-peak crowding.

 

[norbitonflyer]

Expected new types in service:
Class 196, 730 (WMR)
Class 197, 230, 231 (TfW)
Class 701 (SWR)
Class 769 (GWR)
Class 777 (Merseyrail)

Classes 810 (EMR) and the new Glasgow Subway cars seem to have slipped into 2023.

The Barking Riverside branch and Crossrail are both expected to open in 2022. Other projects (Ashington, Walsall-Wolverhampton, Levenmouth), have also slipped into 2023/24

 

[Gloster]

Don’t expect or hope for anything. At least you won’t be disappointed.

 

[yorksrob]

Don’t expect or hope for anything. At least you won’t be disappointed.

Bleak but probably true !

 

[LUYMun]

Some uncertainty surrounding service reductions in the May/December 2022 timetable changes...

 

[Goldfish62]

Happy New Year everyone.

I couldn't find any similar threads so I thought I'd start one.

So here goes with mine:

1. Passenger numbers will continue to stagnate and there will be a realisation of a permanent reduction to no more than 70% of pre-Covid levels.
2. There will be permanent severe cuts to train services across the country, leading to much strife and outcry.
3. There will be an unprecedented level of industrial action, including coordinated national strikes.
4. Our esteemed PM will be replaced by someone more hostile towards the railways.
5. HS2 and the Integrated Rail Plan will be further watered down.
6. Crossrail will open in late Summer.
7. No-one will be any-the-wiser re GBR and the government will start making steps to push it into the long grass, along with "Reversing Beeching".
8. The Class 701s will go another whole year without entering service (as will the 730s).
9. There will be no significant passenger rolling stock orders.
10. Freight traffic on the railways will grow, slowly.
11. Hitachi will eventually publish their action plan to deal with the IEP cracking, but not before further sources of cracking are found.
12. The first Passenger Service Contract will be tendered by the DfT and it will be C2C (Essex Thameside).

I realise it's gloomy, but I really can't think of anything more positive right now! I look forward to your more positive predictions!

 

[Ken H]

...

1. Passenger numbers will continue to stagnate and there will be a realisation of a permanent reduction to no more than 70% of pre-Covid levels.
...

I would hope someone would think of all the spare capacity and think 'where could this be used to generate leisure traffic' Not holding breath.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

Happy New Year everyone.

I couldn't find any similar threads so I thought I'd start one.

So here goes with mine:

1. Passenger numbers will continue to stagnate and there will be a realisation of a permanent reduction to no more than 70% of pre-Covid levels.
2. There will be permanent severe cuts to train services across the country, leading to much strife and outcry.
3. There will be an unprecedented level of industrial action, including coordinated national strikes.
4. Our esteemed PM will be replaced by someone more hostile towards the railways.
5. HS2 and the Integrated Rail Plan will be further watered down.
6. Crossrail will open in late Summer.
7. No-one will be any-the-wiser re GBR and the government will start making steps to push it into the long grass, along with "Reversing Beeching".
8. The Class 701s will go another whole year without entering service (as will the 730s).
9. There will be no significant passenger rolling stock orders.
10. Freight traffic on the railways will grow, slowly.
11. Hitachi will eventually publish their action plan to deal with the IEP cracking, but not before further sources of cracking are found.
12. The first Passenger Service Contract will be tendered by the DfT and it will be C2C (Essex Thameside).

I realise it's gloomy, but I really can't think of anything more positive right now! I look forward to your more positive predictions!

I think your being way too negative here. While the current situation is an unprecedented crisis, I really don't think its as bad as many people on the forum are making it out to be, a lot of people here are overreacting massively.

 

[SamYeager]

Happy New Year everyone.

I couldn't find any similar threads so I thought I'd start one.

So here goes with mine:


3. There will be an unprecedented level of industrial action, including coordinated national strikes.

Should this occur then I predict that this will further harden HMT's push to reduce the funds going to the railways and will probably end up with GBR increasingly resembling BR as far as constrained budgets but without the room for manoeuvre that BR had as to how the shortfall was to be met.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

There will be some positives:
- plenty of construction progress along the full length of HS2 phase 1
- the phase 2 Crewe-Manchester (and hopefully also to Golborne) Bill will start its parliamentary process
- large amounts of new stock will go into service, and equally large amounts of old stock will be withdrawn
- more progress on MML and TRU electrification (Huddersfield scheme approved)
- there will be some progress on fares reform (maybe just locally or regionally)
- GBR is problematic without the legislation, but maybe the Regional structure will be defined and a shadow management team appointed
- Northern and LNER may, or may not, be allowed to place orders for new stock
- the 125mph non-tilt speed profile for the WCML will be announced
- Crossrail, when it opens, will produce good PR for the whole railway

But the downsides are likely to be:
- many upgrade plans deferred or cancelled (ECML power upgrade and resignalling should be OK)
- long-term service reductions to match demand
- cost-driven operational changes and consequent industrial relations issues

Railway funding isn't going to be revisited for the rest of this parliament, and maybe not until the next spending review (5 years?).
NR will still be under the cosh on construction costs generally, and electrification/resignalling costs specifically.
Devolved Scotland and Wales may produce different blueprints, but they will both have the same funding constraints as England.
DfT will still be in direct control of the railway at the end of the year, and will still be drip-feeding network enhancement announcements.

 

[Goldfish62]

I think your being way too negative here. While the current situation is an unprecedented crisis, I really don't think its as bad as many people on the forum are making it out to be, a lot of people here are overreacting massively.

I hope you're right and I'm proven wrong!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Happy New Year everyone.

I couldn't find any similar threads so I thought I'd start one.

So here goes with mine:

1. Passenger numbers will continue to stagnate and there will be a realisation of a permanent reduction to no more than 70% of pre-Covid levels.

certainly for 2-3 years beyond that im not so sure

2. There will be permanent severe cuts to train services across the country, leading to much strife and outcry.

disagree - there will be better matching of services to demand but depends on what you define as severe

3. There will be an unprecedented level of industrial action, including coordinated national strikes.

unlikely

4. Our esteemed PM will be replaced by someone more hostile towards the railways.

possible

5. HS2 and the Integrated Rail Plan will be further watered down.

only if 4 comes to pass and even then i doubt it as most of it is so far ahead currently politicians can just waffle about it without making commitments

6. Crossrail will open in late Summer.

May 2022 latest

7. No-one will be any-the-wiser re GBR and the government will start making steps to push it into the long grass, along with "Reversing Beeching".

disagree it will drift along

8. The Class 701s will go another whole year without entering service (as will the 730s).

highly possible

9. There will be no significant passenger rolling stock orders.

agree

10. Freight traffic on the railways will grow, slowly.

yes but slow sustainable growth is a positive

11. Hitachi will eventually publish their action plan to deal with the IEP cracking, but not before further sources of cracking are found.

no further cracking will be found

12. The first Passenger Service Contract will be tendered by the DfT and it will be C2C (Essex Thameside).

more likely SouthEastern

I realise it's gloomy, but I really can't think of anything more positive right now! I look forward to your more positive predictions!

 

[Goldfish62]

Expected new types in service:
Class 196, 730 (WMR)
Class 197, 230, 231 (TfW)
Class 701 (SWR)
Class 769 (GWR)
Class 777 (Merseyrail)

Classes 810 (EMR) and the new Glasgow Subway cars seem to have slipped into 2023.

The Barking Riverside branch and Crossrail are both expected to open in 2022. Other projects (Ashington, Walsall-Wolverhampton, Levenmouth), have also slipped into 2023/24

The Class 730s aren't expected into service until 2023 (Modern Railways, Dec 21).
I'd be surprised if the 701s and 769s enter service this year either.
I agree with the rest on your list.

 

[Dr Hoo]

Railway funding isn't going to be revisited for the rest of this parliament, and maybe not until the next spending review (5 years?).
NR will still be under the cosh on construction costs generally, and electrification/resignalling costs specifically.
Devolved Scotland and Wales may produce different blueprints, but they will both have the same funding constraints as England.
DfT will still be in direct control of the railway at the end of the year, and will still be drip-feeding network enhancement announcements.

Can you clarify how this fits with the fact the ORR Periodic Review 2023 timeline expects the 'Statements Of Funds Available' (SOFAs) from the DfT and Scottish Ministers later this year?

(I appreciate that the Periodic Review is mainly about Network Rail rather than the 'TOCs'.)

 

[Bald Rick]

Happy New Year everyone.

I couldn't find any similar threads so I thought I'd start one.

So here goes with mine:

1. Passenger numbers will continue to stagnate and there will be a realisation of a permanent reduction to no more than 70% of pre-Covid levels.
2. There will be permanent severe cuts to train services across the country, leading to much strife and outcry.
3. There will be an unprecedented level of industrial action, including coordinated national strikes.
4. Our esteemed PM will be replaced by someone more hostile towards the railways.
5. HS2 and the Integrated Rail Plan will be further watered down.
6. Crossrail will open in late Summer.
7. No-one will be any-the-wiser re GBR and the government will start making steps to push it into the long grass, along with "Reversing Beeching".
8. The Class 701s will go another whole year without entering service (as will the 730s).
9. There will be no significant passenger rolling stock orders.
10. Freight traffic on the railways will grow, slowly.
11. Hitachi will eventually publish their action plan to deal with the IEP cracking, but not before further sources of cracking are found.
12. The first Passenger Service Contract will be tendered by the DfT and it will be C2C (Essex Thameside).

I realise it's gloomy, but I really can't think of anything more positive right now! I look forward to your more positive predictions!

the top 4 are probably about right, as are 10 and 12, but the rest are wide of the mark.

 

[squizzler]

I suspect that further hikes in petrol prices - and periods of none to be had as we saw last year - will lead to a sustained switch to rail travel.

 

[Goldfish62]

the top 4 are probably about right, as are 10 and 12, but the rest are wide of the mark.

Well, we agree on half of them then!

What are your predictions for the others?

 

[Bald Rick]

5. HS2 and the Integrated Rail Plan will be further watered down.
6. Crossrail will open in late Summer.
7. No-one will be any-the-wiser re GBR and the government will start making steps to push it into the long grass, along with "Reversing Beeching".
8. The Class 701s will go another whole year without entering service (as will the 730s).
9. There will be no significant passenger rolling stock orders.

My opinions:

HS2 and IRP will progress as planned
Crossrail will open in the spring
GBR will be well defined (but awaiting legislation)
701s will be in service, in quantity

re rolling stock, I missed the word ‘significant’. There will be orders, but nothing big. Albeit there was nothing big planned anyway.

11. Hitachi will eventually publish their action plan to deal with the IEP cracking, but not before further sources of cracking are found.

AIUI it‘s already published. Albeit not public.

 

[Goldfish62]

My opinions:

HS2 and IRP will progress as planned
Crossrail will open in the spring
GBR will be well defined (but awaiting legislation)
701s will be in service, in quantity

re rolling stock, I missed the word ‘significant’. There will be orders, but nothing big. Albeit there was nothing big planned anyway.



AIUI it‘s already published. Albeit not public.

Not going to argue with those - probably just as likely at least as my predictions. Except Crossrail. I think that's too optimistic.

 

[Bald Rick]

Except Crossrail. I think that's too optimistic.

we’ll see.

 

[Goldfish62]

we’ll see.

We will indeed. A friend of mine who's currently doing testing in the cental core isn't too optimistic about the first half of next year.

 

[Ken H]

We will indeed. A friend of mine who's currently doing testing in the cental core isn't too optimistic about the first half of next year.

That will cause even more pain for TfL finances....

 

[Goldfish62]

That will cause even more pain for TfL finances....

As the continual delays have been for a while now.

Not helping at all are the current high levels of Covid absences playing havoc with the test running program.

 

[philosopher]

We will indeed. A friend of mine who's currently doing testing in the cental core isn't too optimistic about the first half of next year.

A London focused blog I read suggested Crossrail would open in the second half of March, however that was before Omicron, which could well have delayed things. So my guess is that it will open in May.

1. Passenger numbers will continue to stagnate and there will be a realisation of a permanent reduction to no more than 70% of pre-Covid levels.

I reckon passenger numbers will be 75% to 80% of normal by the end of the year. 70% was what was achieved last autumn. I think this year fewer people will frightened of catching Covid on trains, air travel and thus travel to and from airports will recover more than last year and a few more office workers will return to commuting, so the recovery will be a bit better than last year. Crossrail itself should result in some extra passengers that were not there last year.

 

[MattRat]

I reckon passenger numbers will be 75% to 80% of normal by the end of the year. 70% was what was achieved last autumn. I think this year fewer people will frightened of catching Covid on trains, air travel and thus travel to and from airports will recover more than last year and a few more office workers will return to commuting, so the recovery will be a bit better than last year. Crossrail itself should result in some extra passengers that were not there last year.

I'd say that depends on whether or not people learn to turn off the TV or not, if you know what I mean.

 

[Goldfish62]

I reckon passenger numbers will be 75% to 80% of normal by the end of the year. 70% was what was achieved last autumn. I think this year fewer people will frightened of catching Covid on trains, air travel and thus travel to and from airports will recover more than last year and a few more office workers will return to commuting, so the recovery will be a bit better than last year. Crossrail itself should result in some extra passengers that were not there last year.

Which is still terrible - 20-30% fewer passengers than three years previously.

 

[The Ham]

Which is still terrible - 20-30% fewer passengers than three years previously.

However part of the drop is potentially linked to a number of those due to retire within the next 2-5 years having done so once they were asked to return after being put on furlough (highlighted by the lack of staff in many areas). The impact of which will reduce over time as younger people start working after education.

Once Covid starts to be of less concern to more people it's likely that numbers in some areas could reach over 100% what they were fairly quickly. Commuting in the SE is likely to be the area which takes the longest to recover. Although things like low emission zones could play a part in seeing numbers recover.

 

[Goldfish62]

However part of the drop is potentially linked to a number of those due to retire within the next 2-5 years having done so once they were asked to return after being put on furlough (highlighted by the lack of staff in many areas). The impact of which will reduce over time as younger people start working after education.

Once Covid starts to be of less concern to more people it's likely that numbers in some areas could reach over 100% what they were fairly quickly. Commuting in the SE is likely to be the area which takes the longest to recover. Although things like low emission zones could play a part in seeing numbers recover.

The drop is because of the amount of working from home that's been introduced which is not going to suddenly stop and the government messaging that public transport is a health hazard that could kill you.

While leisure undoubtedly will recover I don't see any scenario in which commuting will ever get back to where it was.

 

[Ken H]

The drop is because of the amount of working from home that's been introduced which is not going to suddenly stop and the government messaging that public transport is a health hazard that could kill you.

While leisure undoubtedly will recover I don't see any scenario in which commuting will ever get back to where it was.

I think business travel will be hit too. Now zoom/teams/Skype is in daily use, I can see widespread bans on travel in businesses.


I hope the 70% drop in riders hip does not mean a 60% drop in farebox income bit I fear it might. A business like public transport, that has high fixed coats and lowish variable costs is at risk in a reducing market. The railway may live to regret recent splurging on new leased trains. And some enhancements. Does Leeds now need platform 0, for example?