Transpennine Scottish services.

[notlob.divad]

Half the problem is that there's insufficient capacity to provide a reasonable mix of long distance services alongside good local services, it's the same here as the discussion about how best to serve Durham. If every major trunk route was 4 tracks throughout this wouldn't be as much as a problem, but they aren't and there has to be a compromise as a result.

That is the crux of the problem, however we have to run the services in either: the best way to cater for the most people, or the best way to make the most money, depending on whether you have a socialist or capitalist point of view. Either way, in terms of pathing, you want to serve the potential flows of passengers as effectively as possible.

Edinburgh would have a slower service, while Lockerbie, Carlisle and Penrith would all have a less frequent Airport service.

We won't know the timings of the journeys until they are released. With the 125mph capable bi-modes on the ECML and the WCML stock being unable to reach that speed due to the lack of tilt. I feel the timings will not be too dissimilar. Either way, any slower the direct Manchester service is via the ECML is further compounded by the time it gets to Liverpool.

People generally kick up a bigger political stink when their existing service is cut than when they do not get a new service they never had before.

That they may do. It doesn't mean it is right. Over the years a significant downgrading of the expanse of service provision to and from Liverpool has occurred. it was once possible to go to direct to the South Cumbrian coast, to Windemere, and further back Glasgow & Edinburgh, Cardiff and other places south of Birmingham ... direct from Liverpool. All of these services have been cut over the years and whilst fuss was made at the time I am sure, it is only right to make the same level of fuss when services are being re-introduced that are not up to what was once previously there.
Add that at no point have I suggested any location loose all direct services, Yes there would be a reduction of frequency at certain places. However the TPE tender already stated that those same places could have calls reduced on the Manchester - Glasgow service if taken up by the Liverpool - Glasgow service.

But the Edinburgh to Manchester services form part of the service between Carlisle, Penrith, Windermere/Kendal etc. and Manchester City Centre. The fact that they are extended to Manchester Airport is not instead of serving the city centre; it is an extra. So the choice is between serving Liverpool City Centre and serving Manchester City Centre plus Manchester Airport.

I take your point but only regarding Carlisle, reasons being that it would be my proposal that giving both South Cumbrian Lines a more regular service would be the ideal origin/destination for the local/regional services I was proposing to serve the Bolton corridor in my proposal. Penrith on the other hand was already a station that the DfT recognized in the tender document that some calls could be reduced on the Manchester - Glasgow service if taken up by the Liverpool - Glasgow service. There by recognizing that there was currently an 'over supply' for want of a better phrase for this market.

If the choice were between running to Lime Street or to Manchester Airport (without calling at Oxford Road & Piccadilly) I might share your view - but that is not the case.

The choice is between:
a relatively small reduction in direct services from places with relatively low populations Car 71 773, Pen 15,200 and their surrounding catchments. To/From a city region with a population 3.6 million
and a providing any kind of service between two relatively large markets with metro populations of 1.33 million and 1.51 million.

Every other flow would be catered for with as good or better service. Any % increase in time by running Edinburgh's connection via the ECML would be insignificant when compared to the % increased time the same route takes for Liverpool.

The creation of a limited service between Lime Street and Glasgow as well as an hourly through service to Edinburgh, albeit the long way round, gives the opportunity to demonstrate demand for further direct services. Your desire for more services into Liverpool is understandable. Your constant denigration of highly successful services into Manchester is rather tiresome.

Again I will agree for the new Glasgow service. this is a direct re-start of a service that will go a small way to redress the problem. However the infrequent nature of it will be its detriment, which will in turn be used as proof that the flow of people does not exist. We will see.

Compare the competing traffic routes at peak periods
Look at the traffic jams on the M61 into Manchester, with the free flows into Liverpool on the M58. I think you'll find most traffic from Scotland, North Lancs and Cumbria is headed into Manchester - and thats the route the trains are needed on. Suggesting the removal of services from Manchester to the north is just simply ignoring the facts.

This is a totally disingenuous comparison. As has been pointed out the time to the middle of Liverpool is faster via the M62 and to the furthest reaches of the Metropolitan area it is faster via the very long way round. This is not the case for rail. Equally whilst the M58 only serves the North Liverpool city region <-> North market, the biggest flows of traffic on the M61 serves a much larger flow of traffic which has no real desire to be anywhere near Manchester but is instead heading over the Pennines to West Yorkshire and beyond. Whilst some of this may be relevant for rail, New services via the Calder Valley should give a more direct and equally fast service.

It seems a little unlikely that the East Coast route from Manchester to Edinburgh could ever be as fast as the West Coast route could potentially be, not least because of the considerable distance penalty. As others have said, the main objective of the new service seems to be to improve facilities for Leeds, with the side-benefit of giving Huddersfield a direct Scotland service, rather than competing for Manchester to Edinburgh traffic. Given the proven success of the Manchester to Edinburgh service (with evidence of the amount of traffic available to compete for coming from the competing air services as well) it would seem perverse to suggest that they should be replaced by "a more useful and roomy Preston to Manchester all stations commuter ... service" -- the TPE services are at least trying to offer InterCity standards on a route for too long ignored, with Manchester's claims for InterCity connections with Scotland being at least as strong as those of Birmingham and Liverpool.

None of this is to say that there is not a strong case for better provision for traffic between Scotland and Liverpool, but that better provision should not be at the expense of Manchester.

I don't think anyone has suggested that provision for Liverpool should be at the expense of Manchester. Far from it, I was merely suggesting a way that the services could be routed in such away that caters more for the flows of people trying to access the various different locations on the network. Manchester's claims for intercity connections are strong and is is getting them. As a geographically central city it will be fully interconnected from all directions on the compass with both intercity and regional services. Equally having traveled on it, I have no doubt that the Edinburgh to Manchester Airport service gets lot of custom mainly on the Preston - Manchester corridor, but equally for the full length of the journey. As I stated above, we do not currently know the timings for the ECML route, however it does strike me that any time penalty via that route will not make the service unuseable for end to end travel, whilst the extra distance on slower lines for the Liverpool connection certainly will.

Sorry for the long post, it has been a few days since I checked this and having started the feed I felt several posts required a response. Currently I do not see any specific quantifiable reason why the level of service that has been specified is balanced. Whilst the very limited Glasgow service may give some credence to the flows of people from the Liverpool area to places further North than Preston, I do not believe that even then it will tell the true story of the potential market.

And as pointed out several times we will not know any potential time penalties until the full timetable is in operation using the fast Bi-mode stock. I only hope that at the next round of franchising for these services as well as the upcoming ones for other services, the requirements for the Liverpool region are taken more seriously than they appear to have been in this, the Northern franchise and the decisions regarding future High speed provision.

 

[Philip C]

I was not sure the best place to ask this, it is not about the rolling stock so I didn't want to put it on the open thread.

Why has it been decided to run the Liverpool - Newcastle service through to Edinburgh, rather than run the new Manchester Airport - Newcastle service through turning the Liverpool one back at Newcastle.

If this was done, Manchester Airport to Glasgow could still run every 2 hours up the WCML, but it would free up a path in the alternate hours to run a quicker Liverpool-Edinburgh via Preston. The same path every 2 hours on the Bolton - Manchester - Manchester Airport corridor could then be used for a service that wouldn't put pickup/set down only restrictions on passengers at Bolton, and could potentially connect to places that are loosing out.

I am sure there must be a reason why someone feels this all needs connecting in the way that it is being, but I can't see it.

Rather than go through all the "my plan this" and "my plan that" of your latest posting may I return to the basic flaw in your argument when you started this thread?

Taking the current timetable VTEC's finest leave York 2hrs 27mins after leaving Edinburgh and seem able to do this with three intermediate stops. To this may be added the standard 1hr 17mins achieved by the best of the York to Manchester Victoria trains giving an estimated through time of the order of 3hrs 44mins.

Meanwhile on the VTWC side the Edinburgh-Birmingham-Euston trains leave Preston 2hrs 26mins after leaving Edinburgh to which I add the standard 36mins on to Oxford Road to give a through time of the order of 3hrs 2mins. (In practice, with existing stock, a timing of 3hrs 8mins is the best achieved by TPE through services.)

Your proposed freeing of the Edinburgh-Preston-Manchester path for an Edinburgh-Preston-Lime Street service is thus done at the expense of roughly a 40min penalty for passengers travelling from Edinburgh to Manchester.

Such an assault upon an established and, seemingly successful, service between two of this nation's principal cities is simply not going to take place.

Whether the East Coast service continues to Liverpool, Holyhead, Buxton or Manchester Airport is not relevant; it will NOT take away demand for the faster, established service via Preston and Carlisle.

Once this is appreciated, ways in which services to Liverpool can evolve, traffic at peak times to Preston be best served etc. etc. can be discussed on their own merits.

 

[notlob.divad]

Rather than go through all the "my plan this" and "my plan that" of your latest posting may I return to the basic flaw in your argument when you started this thread?

Taking the current timetable VTEC's finest leave York 2hrs 27mins after leaving Edinburgh and seem able to do this with three intermediate stops. To this may be added the standard 1hr 17mins achieved by the best of the York to Manchester Victoria trains giving an estimated through time of the order of 3hrs 44mins.

Meanwhile on the VTWC side the Edinburgh-Birmingham-Euston trains leave Preston 2hrs 26mins after leaving Edinburgh to which I add the standard 36mins on to Oxford Road to give a through time of the order of 3hrs 2mins. (In practice, with existing stock, a timing of 3hrs 8mins is the best achieved by TPE through services.)

Your proposed freeing of the Edinburgh-Preston-Manchester path for an Edinburgh-Preston-Lime Street service is thus done at the expense of roughly a 40min penalty for passengers travelling from Edinburgh to Manchester.

Such an assault upon an established and, seemingly successful, service between two of this nation's principal cities is simply not going to take place.

Whether the East Coast service continues to Liverpool, Holyhead, Buxton or Manchester Airport is not relevant; it will NOT take away demand for the faster, established service via Preston and Carlisle.

Once this is appreciated, ways in which services to Liverpool can evolve, traffic at peak times to Preston be best served etc. etc. can be discussed on their own merits.

I thank you Philip. Finally, someone comes up with some backed up evidence to argue against my proposal.