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Transport Scotland - STPR2 - summary report published

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Starmill

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Apologies, I have missed that, will go back and look.

Ok, understood, but this does beg a question. What is the route to reopening lines in the next 20 years if its not in STPR2? Sending out the message that there is no possibility of new rail in Scotland for two decades doesn't strike me as a wise or prudent move.
If you take a closer look at the active travel and bus recommendations you will be able to spot a shift in thinking. It's small but it's there. The plan is drawing some hefty criticisms because it is very light on new road schemes. Again, that these are most of the criticisms is a good sign. Furthermore the review is fairly strong on rail decarbonisation, would not you agree? Perhaps it would be prudent to consider if there are any resources left for the coming decades if we're going to hit the relevant decarbonisation targets? Milestones might include withdrawing the Sprinter and HST fleets in time for 2030 - quite the task, wouldn't you say?

You could, if you wished, report the last post in the most recent thread and ask the mods to reopen; alternatively start a new thread.
I forgot to mention this. I agree. If there's a genuine update to be had the request will be likely to be approved.
 
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Bald Rick

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Is no one discussing how we drastically increase uptake, solving at a stroke the revenue issue? More passengers=more revenue=lower subsidy.

Lots of discussions on that going on behind closed doors, as you can imagine, The key point is how to achieve that without spending much cash to achieve it. There is absolutely no point (in current circumstances) increasing uptake if the cost of doing so is more than the revenue gained.
 

Wynd

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If you take a closer look at the active travel and bus recommendations you will be able to spot a shift in thinking. It's small but it's there. The plan is drawing some hefty criticisms because it is very light on new road schemes. Again, that these are most of the criticisms is a good sign. Furthermore the review is fairly strong on rail decarbonisation, would not you agree? Perhaps it would be prudent to consider if there are any resources left for the coming decades if we're going to hit the relevant decarbonisation targets? Milestones might include withdrawing the Sprinter and HST fleets in time for 2030 - quite the task, wouldn't you say?


I forgot to mention this. I agree. If there's a genuine update to be had the request will be likely to be approved.

You'll have to take me on the journey on the shift in thinking, I'm not 100% sure I understand what you are pointing to.

Agreed, 2030 is a big task with a looming target. HST & sprinter withdraws, new stock to replace them, wires up to Aberdeen & Inverness from Central Belt, Leven, and Wires on the Borders.

Why not just have electric loco hauled mk3s as a bridge to new 385s?

I'm not sure what would constitute genuine updates. The campaign has been in the media again this past week.


Lots of discussions on that going on behind closed doors, as you can imagine, The key point is how to achieve that without spending much cash to achieve it.

Glad to hear it. IMO feel we should drop the revenue model as it is, add more coaches and slash prices to maximise sales. Scotrail do have spare coaches that are going un-used.
 

Starmill

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I'm not sure what would constitute genuine updates. The campaign has been in the media again this past week.
Anything that's changed really, so not just delayed media reporting, but anything else that might have changed since the topic was closed.

Why not just have electric loco hauled mk3s as a bridge to new 385s?
There will be a large range of possible solutions in the mix. But I would say that mark 3 coaches really will be life expired and shouldn't be continuing beyond 2030. Class 170s should be OK to keep going.
 

Bald Rick

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Glad to hear it. IMO feel we should drop the revenue model as it is, add more coaches and slash prices to maximise sales.

At present the industry needs to maximise profit*, not maximise sales. No point selling £20m of extra tickets if it costs £50m to do so. Of course selling more tickets helps, but it needs to come with comparatively little, or preferably no, additional industry cost.

*strictly speaking, maximise subsidy reduction.
 

InOban

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So, how is Leven going to be served? The Borders extension is also DOA if the above is the position?

Is no one discussing how we drastically increase uptake, solving at a stroke the revenue issue? More passengers=more revenue=lower subsidy.

I must be missing something here...
The vast majority of journeys are within the Central Belt, and too many of these are by car. The only way of making a significant modal shift in Scotland is by focussing on improving public transport within the Central Belt, where it is feasible to ‘encourage ‘ people to leave the car at home.
 

Wynd

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The vast majority of journeys are within the Central Belt, and too many of these are by car. The only way of making a significant modal shift in Scotland is by focussing on improving public transport within the Central Belt, where it is feasible to ‘encourage ‘ people to leave the car at home.
Aberdeenshire has some of if not the highest levels of car ownership in Scotland. What we don't have is the highest population.

Its feasible to get modal shift here, technically. The challenge is the resource budget in Scotland is deeply constrained at present.


 

waverley47

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So, regarding this report and a couple of issues raised in this thread...

The pandemic has hit tax revenue hard. But it also hit the farebox hard. The Scottish railway system is funded from a combination of Scotgov subsidy, and fares.

The Scotgov subsidy is calculated as an operational expenditure, partly the money comes from Scotgov tax revenues, and partly from Barnett consequentials.

Reduced government revenues across the board has meant that there is simply less money being spent, as there is less money (real or imaginary) to spend. Scotgov, as well as the UK government, are looking for wars to reduce daily spending, and inevitably, rail is an expensive thing to subsidise, so it takes a hit.

It hasn't helped that passenger numbers are down, so it's not really beneficial to cart empty trains around, and so cutting the number of trains is a reasonably easy way of reducing expenditure. It also saves on staff numbers, which at the moment have take a massive hit, with up to 60% of rail staff self isolating in the week before Christmas.



In Scotland however, the railway system is financed a bit differently. Enhancements to the railway (junction remodelling and station rebuilds) are financed as a funding settlement (a pre-agreed pot of money every year from Holyrood) and NRScot gets to spend that on what it thinks benefits the railway most. They have a checklist to work through, and they're getting down that list. (Note, this is not the same budget as the renewals budget, which is also a yearly funding settlement)

At the moment, the main priority is still electrification and signalling enhancements. Resignalling of the ECML north of Dundee and the Highland Main Line, both to allow closer headways and more capacity, will come from this budget.

In England, each scheme (electrification of the Wigan lines) is funded, approved and signed off individually as its own project. This means you can chop and change them, and they're more easily targeted at swing seats, but ultimately, each project is funded separately. Spending money on Wigan doesn't mean there's less money to spend on Doncaster, you could in theory do both, or none.

In Scotland, all CapEx will be competing for the same budget as Perth remodelling and wiring to Inverness. This is why there is not really any money to extend the Borders line or reopen a line in Aberdeenshire with a dubious business case. If you approved spending several hundred million on either, there would be pressure to reduce the enhancements budget. We've done the north east lines to death, and while they'd be a decent addition in an infinite money scenario, it's not worth it if that would mean not wiring the network that's already there, or increasing the rail subsidy further.

Levenmouth is an odd one. It probably wouldn't be approved today, but it snuck in before covid drastically reshaped the UK economy, and now it's being built, so it has to be funded. As pointed out earlier, it would be disastrous to open a railway line only to not send any trains down it.


Furthermore, as has been pointed out, this list from Transport Scotland has been in the works for about five years now, long before any funding agreement with the Greens was settled. Any announcements on coalition spending commitments will be expected next year at the earliest.

Basically, it's easier, cheaper and more impactful to improve the network that's already there, and link it better with cycle or bus routes, than to commit to spending X million on a new railway, and not have any improvemts to the existing lines.
 
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Kingston Dan

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You could, if you wished, report the last post in the most recent thread and ask the mods to reopen; alternatively start a new thread.

Re the costs - the cost of a new railway varies according to various factors, but a good working sum for future new railways is £30m per km. That is roughly what the current phase of East West Rail is costing. Many railways are much more expensive, a handful are cheaper. If your estimates are not in that ‘ball park’, you will need to have some compelling reasons to explain to those funding it why that is.
That would make an extension of the Borders Rail to Hawick for example c£750m compared to the £800m for the original project which is more than twice as long. Obviously inflation has had some effect but that much?
 

Starmill

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That would make an extension of the Borders Rail to Hawick for example c£750m compared to the £800m for the original project which is more than twice as long. Obviously inflation has had some effect but that much?
I'm not commenting either way on this question (because I don't know), but it is always worth bearing in mind that construction industry inflation has been running somewhat ahead of general market wide inflation.
 

Bald Rick

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That would make an extension of the Borders Rail to Hawick for example c£750m compared to the £800m for the original project which is more than twice as long. Obviously inflation has had some effect but that much?

if you mean the Borders railway that opened, that was over £400m, in prices ten years ago. On a route that was specifically protected from development, which an extension beyond tweedbank has not been.
add in 15 years of construction inflation, (10 back, 5 forward, as you won’t be building it before then), and it gets much closer.
 

Wynd

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Jenny Gilruth has been appointed Transport Minister. This, in my opinion, is good news.

For absolute clarity, the business case of Peterhead needs work. I would advise anyone reading it to exercise caution and restraint. What was published in 2017 has serious issues that require correction and re-evaluation.

Capital budgets are deeply constrained, that is beyond question. It may be the case we wont see another new railway in Scotland until the pandemic has fully passed and revenue numbers have improved, but once we are there, new rail should be seriously considered.

Cost for the Borders railway is cited on the internet as £353 with £295 of that as construction? Where is the £400m figure arising? Further, predicted patronage was around half a million, with 2018 figures more like 1.5 million. We really do need to be extremely careful when we talk about business cases.
 

Bald Rick

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Where is the £400m figure arising?

costs that were accounted elsewhere, eg Government’s costs, some development costs, land that had long since been bought, etc etc.

but once we are there, new rail should be seriously considered.
I agree, but don’t see any hope for this one. I could be wrong of course.
 

Kingston Dan

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if you mean the Borders railway that opened, that was over £400m, in prices ten years ago. On a route that was specifically protected from development, which an extension beyond tweedbank has not been.
add in 15 years of construction inflation, (10 back, 5 forward, as you won’t be building it before then), and it gets much closer.
Thanks for the correction and costings. Thought all the local councils had protected the route (at least that's what the Campaign for Borders Rail say). And apart from St Bowells the route to Hawick is mostly still there (Melrose can fit a single track along the bypass and relocate the station?). So in terms of new build it doesn't seem anymore complex than the rebuild around Sheriffhall and the various new roads of the Tweedbank project. But there is absolutely no way an extension south of Hawick adds up with 10% of the population and 65% of the mileage.
 

Bald Rick

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Thanks for the correction and costings. Thought all the local councils had protected the route (at least that's what the Campaign for Borders Rail say). And apart from St Bowells the route to Hawick is mostly still there (Melrose can fit a single track along the bypass and relocate the station?). So in terms of new build it doesn't seem anymore complex than the rebuild around Sheriffhall and the various new roads of the Tweedbank project. But there is absolutely no way an extension south of Hawick adds up with 10% of the population and 65% of the mileage.

I will correct myself - there is a presumption against development on the old Borders line, although that may have only been in place since 2016. However that didn’t stop the council from building a new road right across the formation at Tweedbank.
 

Wynd

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costs that were accounted elsewhere, eg Government’s costs, some development costs, land that had long since been bought, etc etc.


I agree, but don’t see any hope for this one. I could be wrong of course.

I see not only hope but a solid business case. There are considerable freight flows to capture, considerable passenger traffic and unquestionable social need.

Baldrick are you aware of the work CNER have put out?
 

clc

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The Net Zero imperative means the focus will be on decarbonisation and modal shift over the next 10 years. In that context it makes sense to spend big on mass transit in Glasgow and Edinburgh as you can get a lot more people out of their cars, especially if demand management measures such as road pricing are also introduced. That’s why Clyde Metro and expanding Edinburgh Trams are recommended in the report and a new line in Aberdeenshire isn’t.
 
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Starmill

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I see not only hope but a solid business case. There are considerable freight flows to capture, considerable passenger traffic and unquestionable social need.

Baldrick are you aware of the work CNER have put out?
The difficulty is getting all of that into a STAG appraisal. Freight is nearly ignored by WebTAG/STAG and although STAG is a little bit better at equality and social impact if you've got many hundreds of millions of pounds to spend, a railway to a Ellon and Peterhead is very unlikely to be the best use of the money. Especially when set against, as a random example, journey time improvements better Edinburgh and Aberdeen.
 

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Extension to Hawick would certainly be a nice to have, but other towns would feel left out (although Hawick has the highest population). Can't see a decent case for Carlisle. In any event, it's a non starter politically as the borders are tory held, so there is no political capital to the SNP government.
 

och aye

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Both threads are closed. It would be nice to add updates to this accordingly as the campaign progresses. Work on the business case has been conducted so far but there is still work to be done.

I don't recognize the £2B figure. That feels very high given the work we have done so far and our familiarity of the route. We have it around £400m but, there will be things we haven't included, not to mention the drastic increase in the prices of things in recent months.
If you get in touch with the forum moderators they will reopen threads if there's something noteworthy to add to it. Alternatively you can start a new thread.
 

Wynd

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The difficulty is getting all of that into a STAG appraisal. Freight is nearly ignored by WebTAG/STAG and although STAG is a little bit better at equality and social impact if you've got many hundreds of millions of pounds to spend, a railway to a Ellon and Peterhead is very unlikely to be the best use of the money. Especially when set against, as a random example, journey time improvements better Edinburgh and Aberdeen.

Per Michael Matheson's responses last week, we know that the £200m is being spent on A-E improvements, just not in the North East.

In the context of new rail in Scotland, I am not aware of a line with a better case than Peterhead. Perhaps Hawick, however I have been firmly debased of the idea of going further south than that as the business case south to Carlisle is thin.

I'm more clearly understanding the direction TS want to go in, easier wins effectively, which is on many levels understandable but does not help us much up here in the North East.
That direction of travel does not mean we should not look at new lines.

Having had a look at the numbers for the Borders, this alone begs the question of re-examining the case for Ellon, and for fully assessing the case for Peterhead which has not yet been examined properly.

I wont be at all surprised if someone points out some glaring error or omission here, because, as a first pass, these numbers just look crackers!

Data taken from here and ORR. https://www.transport.gov.scot/media/10321/ts_borders_fbc_final_version_issued.pdf


Borders Actual v Prediction .PNG
 

318259

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One very interesting proposal is to convert the Argyle Line and the Milngavie and Singer branches to ‘heavy metro’. Milngavie and Singer services would no longer go through Partick but would be rerouted via a combination of disused tunnels and a new section of track between Hyndland and the Botanic Gardens.

It's not a bad plan, but it wouldn't be easy or cheap. It would make a massive improvement though. Hyndland-Partick has long been the bottleneck of the Glasgow suburban network.

That would leave the Yoker line running through Queen Street as heavy rail, running the services to Balloch, Helensburgh, Airdrie and Edinburgh.

What's the best outcome for the Springburn branch? Link it to the cross-city line behind St Enoch?
 

Starmill

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I'm more clearly understanding the direction TS want to go in, easier wins effectively, which is on many levels understandable but does not help us much up here in the North East.
That direction of travel does not mean we should not look at new lines.
I think that you're misunderstanding the point. Why would Transport Scotland go down the route of new lines when they can spend money on enhancements to existing services (especially when journey times can be improved or capacity increased, as well as focusing on decarbonisation), or build a range of new stations on existing lines? These things will offer significantly better value for money. The same goes for bus and active travel infrastructure, and indeed even for freight.

PS I really wouldn't try to use the Borders Railway as as an example of what can be achieved. It had a much poorer business case than what'd be necessary to get something similar off the ground now.
 

Wynd

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I think that you're misunderstanding the point. Why would Transport Scotland go down the route of new lines when they can spend money on enhancements to existing services (especially when journey times can be improved or capacity increased, as well as focusing on decarbonisation), or build a range of new stations on existing lines? These things will offer significantly better value for money. The same goes for bus and active travel infrastructure, and indeed even for freight.

PS I really wouldn't try to use the Borders Railway as as an example of what can be achieved. It had a much poorer business case than what'd be necessary to get something similar off the ground now.

No, I understand. What you appear to be missing is that the arguments for new rail do not just vanish because TS are going down the path outlined. A path that I support.

You are making my argument for me, the business case has been shredded by the actual passenger uptake of the line.
 

Starmill

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No, I understand. What you appear to be missing is that the arguments for new rail do not just vanish because TS are going down the path outlined. A path that I support.
The problem is that it being your view unfortunately doesn't change the framework to understand value for money. STAG is based on research and years of refinement. Nobody says it's perfect, but it's a working document that produces 'good' outcomes. It could pay a little more weight to climate change impacts. It could be much more specific when it comes to rail freight. It is weaker at truly understanding changes which are 'transformational' and have wider economic benefits, rather than those which are 'incremental'. But these things are more tweaks than major rewrites - what makes you think that it would produce totally different results if it were changed? Or are you instead aspiring to a wholesale abandonment of STAG?
 

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The problem is that it being your view unfortunately doesn't change the framework to understand value for money. STAG is based on research and years of refinement. Nobody says it's perfect, but it's a working document that produces 'good' outcomes. It could pay a little more weight to climate change impacts. It could be much more specific when it comes to rail freight. But these things are more tweaks than major rewrites - what makes you think that it would produce totally different results if it were changed? Or are you instead aspiring to a wholesale abandonment of STAG?

STAG, an assessment criteria, which omits or under appreciates green, social, and freight aspects. I suggest you may have answered your own question there.
 

Starmill

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STAG, an assessment criteria, which omits or under appreciates green, social, and freight aspects. I suggest you may have answered your own question there.
If you reread the post you'll see that I make some criticisms of it because I recognise them, and it would be foolish of me not to do so.

It still, however, is the approach to appraisal. And is the strongest approach we have. What's your alternative?
 

Wynd

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If you reread the post you'll see that I make some criticisms of it because I recognise them, and it would be foolish of me not to do so.

It still, however, is the approach to appraisal. And is the strongest approach we have. What's your alternative?
I saw that, its wise not to defend something you consider lacking. Logic would say STAG needs adjusting to include Freight, Social and Green issues so that it better reflects reality.
 
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