Only if you kick something else out of Victoria to provide the paths....
Though I do wonder if, at least off-peak, 2tph Victoria to East Grinstead & Uckfield splitting at Oxted, might be a better use of capacity than 2tph to each?
But there are so many questions!
- Who is going to re-signal Oxted to allow permissive working on both Up and Down lines, instead of the halfway house, with just the Up line being permissively signalled at the moment? Is this to wait until Oxted is eventually re-controlled to (say) TBROC?
- Who is going employ enough staff to split and attach four trains each hour?
- How are the trains going to have their schedules and diagrams juggled? Oxted to East Grinstead is considerably shorter than Oxted to Uckfield. You will get the balance of units wrong somewhere.
They've talked about doing this for a while. As we know, the powers that be don't like installing third rail now. They've decided that for the cost of energising 30 miles worth of third rail, they could just as easily erect the same distance of overhead gantries and cabling for 25kV, as you'd need an energiser for every mile of third rail vs a single energiser for the whole stretch of OHLE.
I really would like to see some kind of improvement to the line - there is demand for it, and Uckfield in particular is growing. Having electrification would enable better acceleration and make it easier to provide a more regular service.
There’s barely enough demand for the current 8 and 10 coach diesel services. It’s only really north of Oxted that demand actually exists. To show how much demand there actually is on the Uckfield branch... the old 1908 Oxted to Uckfield shuttle (which ran up to May this year) used to be formed of 4 coaches and it was barely
ever properly full. It connected with several peak time trains from both applicable London termini. There now isn’t even a train service in that path at all.
To some degree, you can argue that a fair amount of demand may be supressed by service reliability. This is mostly caused by Class 171 issues and the single line sections south of Hever Junction. The most sensible proposals would be to re-double Cowden and then Eridge. The single line from Greenhurst Junction to Uckfield is basically not a problem most of the time, but the other two bits are. Both projects would be a little tricky but by no means insurmountable. The overwhelming majority of the old trackbed exists, or is in other railway use.
The 171 units, when they work, are perfectly capable of the job they are intended to do, but they need to get a lot more TLC. Acceleration tends not to solve any problems as it simply means the trains catch up with stopping services more easily, which currently seems impossible to avoid anyway - the Oxted Lines were pretty much the only GTR routes without a major re-write in May, with the exception of peak time Thameslinks directly replacing the old Southern peak time London Bridge services, and a few changes to which peak hour paths to Uckfield were chosen for use with the stock available. The fasts catching up with stoppers was a problem too far for that project to stretch to. And the political appetite for stopping Uckfield trains at all shacks will be nil, so (perversely) those services will always end up stuck behind stopping trains at every red signal in suburbia... witness at least half of all southbound journeys from about Sanderstead to Woldingham. What you really need is more reliability with pathing out of Victoria, not to have everything bunching up because somebody thought it was a bright idea to hire in trains which are too quick for their own good.
One further note on electrification. The diesel island which is Uckfield was never originally an “island”, more like part of a sort of continental landmass, if you will. The Uckfield Line just happens to be the one bit which both didn’t succumb to the rising tide of rail closures and also didn’t really become a proper part of the Brighton Mainline branches. It really is a quirk of history, but unfortunately quirks of history do not always justify electrification!