UK rail in 2025 - your predictions

[adwm]

Hi all,

Wondering what you think might be the main stories around UK rail in the coming year? Obv the nationalisation of SWR, C2C, Greater Anglia around summer/autumn. Any suggestion that Chiltern and Govia Thameslink might also be taken over in 2025 given contracts expire then?

Any ideas what might happen re HS2, with Jon Thompson stepping down?

Also feels like Labour/union clashes over Sunday working are inevitable. Thoughts?

 

[Scanderina]

The parliamentary bill on the creation of GBR will be a very important set of milestones.

 

[InTheEastMids]

The Comprehensive Spending Review is likely to be one of the big things for rail and other publicly owned infrastructure.
It should say something about the total available budget for major capital enhancements schemes
There will probably be a flurry of press releases about the projects that will progress.
Could expect HS2, EWR, Midlands Rail Hub, (MML) electrification and others to all have some more clarity about if, when and how they'll progress.

 

[dk1]

I’m just expecting things to to be much of the same from my perspective working on the railway.

 

[Nottingham59]

I'm going to predict that the 2025 event with the biggest (eventual) impact on the railway will be Waymo announcing that it's going to start testing in a British city. (Probably London, but I can see the Scottish Government being keen to steal a march on Whitehall and offering Glasgow as a test bed.)

Waymo recently opened autonomous ride hailing to all in Los Angeles, and have just announced their first international expansion destination as Tokyo. I'd expect more and more international destinations to be announced in 2025, and it seems a good bet that one of these will be in the UK.

The impact will be minor at first, but eventually autonomous public transport is going to turn the whole area of public transport on its head - including the railway.

 

[Palmerston]

Labour either need to commit to part of HS2a, even if it's not as far as Crewe, or sell off the land, at the Spending Review. I doubt they could stomach either being on the hook for an extra £20bn of HS2 or have Andy Burnham criticise them for selling the land, so I think it's most likely they'll kick this can down the road by "consulting on all the options". Possibly they'll decide to extend the line a bit further, past Stafford and to one of the next possible junctions.

 

[nr758123]

The Transpennine Route Upgrade will be re-announced, possibly twice.

 

[devon_belle]

News on HS2 phase 2 (hard yes or no), tight budgets for NR enhancements, gradual re-introduction of pre-covid services (where rolling stock allows) would be my main guesses.

Changes at nationalised TOCs will probably be off to a very slow start while GBR details are still worked out. Will we see expansion of "simplified" ticketing?

Sadly more weather-related disruptions/incidents seem likely.

Fewer strikes?

 

[Bevan Price]

1. Some timetables will be reduced even further "for financial reasons".
2. Some projects will be further delayed (same excuse).
3. Targets will be announced for further electrification schemes, but not to be completed until around 2040.
4. DfT approves that 15x dmus can be replaced - but not completed before about 2035/2040.
5. New "simplified" fare schemes and payment methods will start to spread, but all will involve typical "above-inflation" fare increases for the average passenger.
6. Probably after 2025. The safety of battery-powered trains will be qustioned after a number of fires occur during battery recharging.

 

[Ghostbus]

It seems pretty obvious Labour's union problem will dominate the railway news agenda.

It's going to stand out as general politics news too, because it's not something they can wave away as the Tory's fault, and it is one of the first examples of a bad decison by Labour coming home to roost.

It's a short hop from there to seeing a resurgence of "Labour isn't working" and by year's end, the memeification of the Starmerism "grip".

 

[A S Leib]

1. The rest of the Northumberland line and (optimistically?) Bicester to Bletchley (re)opening.
2. Most if not all of the 555s entering service on the Tyne and Wear Metro, and replacements for Tube 1972 and 1992 stock being ordered.
3. Green 730s coming into service (I think so far it's only West Midlands Railway-branded ones?)
4. At least one more open-access route will be given ORR approval (currently up to the existing ones, London to Stirling and Paignton, Lumo to Rochdale, Carmarthen and Glasgow, Hull Trains to Sheffield and Co-op around Taunton)
5. PAYG networks will expand; Project Oval, at the very least

 

[TheWierdOne]

I'm going to predict that the 2025 event with the biggest (eventual) impact on the railway will be Waymo announcing that it's going to start testing in a British city. (Probably London, but I can see the Scottish Government being keen to steal a march on Whitehall and offering Glasgow as a test bed.)

Waymo recently opened autonomous ride hailing to all in Los Angeles, and have just announced their first international expansion destination as Tokyo. I'd expect more and more international destinations to be announced in 2025, and it seems a good bet that one of these will be in the UK.

The impact will be minor at first, but eventually autonomous public transport is going to turn the whole area of public transport on its head - including the railway.

I think the railways will be fairly safe from Waymo (or others), other public transport will also be fairly secure. When you think about it, autonomous vehicles don’t promise anything different from Uber except not having to talk to a driver. Given that rail and public transport managed to weather the Uber storm fairly well, Covid was far more of a disruption, I don’t think Waymo will pose a threat. Autonomous vehicles still cause pollution and congestion, and will still be constrained by measures to prioritise active travel and public transport

 

[Nottingham59]

I think the railways will be fairly safe from Waymo (or others), other public transport will also be fairly secure. When you think about it, autonomous vehicles don’t promise anything different from Uber except not having to talk to a driver. Given that rail and public transport managed to weather the Uber storm fairly well, Covid was far more of a disruption, I don’t think Waymo will pose a threat. Autonomous vehicles still cause pollution and congestion, and will still be constrained by measures to prioritise active travel and public transport

As I see it, it works both ways.

Waymo's could be very good for the railways, as they will solve the "final mile" problem for many train journeys. Which is an opportunity that the railway should be including in its long-term planning, especially around station design and siting, though no sign of that thinking yet - and I don't expect it to until people can see and experience autonomous taxis for themselves.

But without having to cover the cost of a driver in every vehicle, I can see the Waymo effect having a negative impact on places like the Barton-on-Humber branch line. Why spend millions a year on subsidising uneconomic branch lines, when robotaxis can provide a better service at less cost?

 

[Magdalia]

The Comprehensive Spending Review is likely to be one of the big things for rail and other publicly owned infrastructure.
It should say something about the total available budget for major capital enhancements schemes
There will probably be a flurry of press releases about the projects that will progress.
Could expect HS2, EWR, Midlands Rail Hub, (MML) electrification and others to all have some more clarity about if, when and how they'll progress.

I'd agree on the spending review.

East West Rail should have a statutory consultation in 2025 prior to a Development Control Order application in 2026.

One other thing I will be looking out for is the report of the New Towns Taskforce, expected in summer 2025, both the recommended sites and the part rail is expected to play in new town development.

 

[The Planner]

1. The rest of the Northumberland line and (optimistically?) Bicester to Bletchley (re)opening.

Why is that optimistic? its effectively open now.

 

[A S Leib]

Why is that optimistic? its effectively open now.

I forgot that driver training had started.

 

[mike57]

1. Completion of Transpennine electrification moves back another year (full York - both Manchester stations route)
2. Industrial relations will be a problem, with further strikes and overtime bans and no real progress on any of the issues, RDW etc.
3. Further scandals with the single justice procedure will see ToC rights to bring prosecutions restricted, fare evasion enforcement will be one of the first areas where GBR will take over all aspects, justified by the fact that all farebox revenue apart from OA operators goes to the treasury anyway.
4. The two reopenings, East West rail and the Northumberland line will prove to be far more successful than forecast, but the lack of money will not allow further reopenings to proceed.
5. The expansion of PAYG will be popular, but for longer journeys, and away from the SE the current mess of fares will continue, with GBR promising to deal with it 'soon' but not in 2025.
6. Work starts on a very cut down version of the Euston HS2 plans, but the HS2 northwards can is very firmly kicked down the road. Land will be retained, but that will be it, other than lip service. And the same with NPR.

I actually dont think a huge amount of progress will be made on a lot of the rail problems next year, GBR are not in place yet, ToC francishes are being brought 'in house' so even with the best possible outcomes I see 2025 & 6 as being transistion years and 2027 being the crunch year where things should start to change.

Its also worth remebering that I suspect railways will be low on the government list of priorities, there are other issues on going which I believe will occupy their time and attention, with considerable opposition to some of their plans.

 

[TomTankEngine]

As I see it, it works both ways.

Waymo's could be very good for the railways, as they will solve the "final mile" problem for many train journeys. Which is an opportunity that the railway should be including in its long-term planning, especially around station design and siting, though no sign of that thinking yet - and I don't expect it to until people can see and experience autonomous taxis for themselves.

But without having to cover the cost of a driver in every vehicle, I can see the Waymo effect having a negative impact on places like the Barton-on-Humber branch line. Why spend millions a year on subsidising uneconomic branch lines, when robotaxis can provide a better service at less cost?

Everyone knows they will eventually happen over the next few decades but I agree it seems no one has really started thinking about how it will change everything.

After waymo, there are others. Verne (rimac) are starting in Zagreb 2026 and Manchester/Birmingham 2027.


Like you say Verne have even said they intend to work with cities to compliment public transport as thousands of robo taxis aren't the solution to cities.


In rural areas I think most people already drive anyway it's only those without cars who will change.

City to city I think will see a much bigger increase win rail travel. Many people will drive door to door as it is such a faff/cost to park at thirty local station and then get public transport or a taxi at the other end. With a much cheaper (and more luxurious - the Tesla and verbe are purpose designed and Verne say has the nvh refinement of a rolls royce, much better than the back of a 15 year old prius on uber) last mile solution the train is a more attractive option.


Commuter trains is where robotaxis cold take traffic away from railways. I'm sure there are many people who could and would drive if parking wasn't prohibitively costly.

 

[InTheEastMids]

I think the railways will be fairly safe from Waymo (or others), other public transport will also be fairly secure. When you think about it, autonomous vehicles don’t promise anything different from Uber except not having to talk to a driver.

I don't think anything dramatic will actually change in 2025. I agree the big threat from Waymo is to Uber / taxi drivers. That was Uber's original plan, after all.
Automation also doesn't help where the advantages of rail are either speed or capacity. Waymo is not going to compete with LNER or the Elizabeth line.

Waymo's could be very good for the railways, as they will solve the "final mile" problem for many train journeys.

This is a very good point, but isn't dependent on automation of the drivers. As far as I know, the rail industry has really only ever been interested in selling train tickets, rather than travel between where you are, and where you want to go.

One other thing I will be looking out for is the report of the New Towns Taskforce,

Yes it'll be interesting if it focuses on genuinely new place-making that generates demand for new stations at the heart of new communities. However I am expecting the usual cave-in to major housebuilders that just perpetuates adding yet more cul-de-sacs full of Barratt boxes on the edge of existing places, which further over-stretch the infrastructure and bake-in car use with local facilities, including the railway station are simply not walkable.

 

[Bletchleyite]

4. The two reopenings, East West rail and the Northumberland line will prove to be far more successful than forecast, but the lack of money will not allow further reopenings to proceed.

EWR will be phenomenally successful such that the 2-car Class 196s used will be full and standing at most times of day, with Bletchley in particular becoming an affordable choice to live in and work in expensive Oxford as Bicester is now (and my house jumping in value as a result ). However money will not be forthcoming to provide any more units until the order for "full EWR" and as such the whole thing gains a "best avoid" reputation among enthusiasts a bit like XC. Winslow will be announced as being subject to massive expansion under the new towns project and turn into something a bit akin to expanded Bicester over time.

Everyone knows they will eventually happen over the next few decades but I agree it seems no one has really started thinking about how it will change everything.

Robotaxis will show up in more places but won't change very much. The cost of the driver is removed and so operating cost is lower than a traditional taxi, but the cost of the tech is and will remain high for the foreseeable, so they just start replacing normal Ubers just as these have supplanted actual taxis and prices don't go anywhere, and they have no impact on bus or rail for the time being, certainly not in 2025 or even 2030. 2065 though...

5. The expansion of PAYG will be popular, but for longer journeys, and away from the SE the current mess of fares will continue, with GBR promising to deal with it 'soon' but not in 2025.

LNER's fare increase trial is declared a phenomenal success and is rolled out to all of LNER's priced flows, however like single fare pricing they shy away from fiddling with other TOCs (particularly highly profitable Greater Anglia) and so aside from a couple of other trials (which I predict to be London-Manchester and Manchester-Leeds and both starting in late 2025) it's left on the back burner. Because shorter journeys often require more flexibility, LNER's short distance traffic reduces and has to be compensated with higher fares, as nobody is willing to lose face and roll the trial back so it is only on the longest routes. However this allows the CAF order to be cancelled* and the Mk4s binned off anyway (by running more single 5-car units to Leeds at eye-watering fares) and so DfT is as happy as can be.

Project Oval goes live and is very popular, with the number of TVMs and the booking office hours at relevant stations heavily reduced but nobody really complains bar the unions. Sales of paper tickets and e-tickets go through the floor on these routes and income increases due to people choosing the convenience over Railcard discounts etc.

* I'm not sure I actually do believe this as a prediction but it's not entirely far fetched.

Another one - TfW gets fed up of the unreliability of the Mk4s and 230s and bins both off, compensating by short-forming other services (e.g. single units on Manchester-Llandudno). The Mk4s all go for scrap as preservationists and railtour companies aren't interested as unlike Mk3s they look too modern. Restaurant service is withdrawn. GWR purchase the 230s to go with their other battery-electric kit, though little comes of this in 2025 bar the existing trials.

 

[TomTankEngine]

Robotaxis will show up in more places but won't change very much. The cost of the driver is removed and so operating cost is lower than a traditional taxi, but the cost of the tech is and will remain high for the foreseeable, so they just start replacing normal Ubers just as these have supplanted actual taxis and prices don't go anywhere, and they have no impact on bus or rail for the time being, certainly not in 2025 or even 2030. 2065 though...

Not 2025 no but 2030 there will be many more around.



The cost of the tech is not that high. The cost is in the cameras and sensors - given how you can now run these cars 24/7, even a £100k car, that has a very conservative useful life of 200k miles is going to cost only 50p a mile. This a well under half of what taxi costs, and to start with people will be more than willing to pay a premium to have a spacious safe car over an Uber with a strange sleep deprived driver. Especially single women - I'm assuming you are a man because you're on a rail forum on the internet, but if you had a daughter getting a taxi home from a night out would you not encourage her to pay extra for an autonomous car over a random taxi?


But again , this thread is 2025 so it's off topic

 

[Bletchleyite]

Network Rail admit they screwed up over Euston and the mid-concourse boards are removed, kept for spares for the outside ones. Trains are still called at the last minute, though.

The refurbished bogs at Euston still stink.

Avanti strikes are settled around February but the underlying issues of Sundays aren't resolved and the situation still bubbles under all year, with Northern and GWR having terrible Sunday service if any at all on some routes.

 

[mike57]

However this allows the CAF order to be cancelled* and the Mk4s binned off anyway

Can the CAF order be cancelled, how far advanced is it? And it it can, would they just squeeze a bit more life out of the 91s and Mk4s, the 91s becoming like the HST where most of the major bits have been replaced over time.

 

[YouLostAStar]

The interesting question is how will the first group of nationalised railways do, what teething problems will Labour have bringing everything in house.
Judging by the fact they've only announced 3 when there are a few other contracts that could expire next year implies to me that the are going to let those extend to the end of the agreement period and see how the first batch get on.

 

[eldomtom2]

But without having to cover the cost of a driver in every vehicle, I can see the Waymo effect having a negative impact on places like the Barton-on-Humber branch line. Why spend millions a year on subsidising uneconomic branch lines, when robotaxis can provide a better service at less cost?

What you're forgetting here is that it takes a lot of time and money to map out a location to the extent required for robotaxis. And somewhere like Barton-on-Humber probably isn't worth the robotaxi companies doing themselves.

 

[The exile]

.

But without having to cover the cost of a driver in every vehicle, I can see the Waymo effect having a negative impact on places like the Barton-on-Humber branch line. Why spend millions a year on subsidising uneconomic branch lines, when robotaxis can provide a better service at less cost?

That’s assuming that what they provide is “better”

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Full MML electrification will get the go ahead.

 

[A S Leib]

Full MML electrification will get the go ahead.

Including Sheffield to Wakefield and Doncaster?

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Including Sheffield to Wakefield and Doncaster?

thats not what they are referencing and that was never on the cards

 

[dk1]

thats not what they are referencing and that was never on the cards

Don’t spoil it