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Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

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brad465

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This is why I am not in favour of a "boosters for all policy". Boosters are useful for people more vulnerable, but for most it is simply a waste of resources which could and should be focused to parts of the world struggling to get even first doses into people. What governments should be focusing on instead of forever boosters, vaccine passports etc is actually (re)educating people on how best to look after our immune systems. Diet, exercise and even mental health can all have effects on it, ironic really when you think that many governments have spent nearly two years putting people down, locking them up & making them feel guilty for something that is not their fault. Its time now to focus the vaccines where they are really needed, and not just pump them into healthy people in industrialised nations to make them feel better about themselves.
I hate to break it to you but everyone's "favourite" so-called Professor is back attention seeking, by suggesting there's no reason why everyone shouldn't get boosters:


Rolling out booster jabs to younger age groups could help cut Covid infection rates to low levels across the UK, a leading scientist has said.
Prof Neil Ferguson said data suggests a third jab gives significant protection, even against mild illness.
He said he saw "no reason" why younger age groups should not be offered boosters after priority groups.
He also said the UK was unlikely to get a "catastrophic winter wave" this Christmas.

The UK recorded 40,375 new Covid-19 cases and 145 deaths on Friday.
In September, the government's scientific advisers recommended everyone over 50 should be offered a third dose of a Covid vaccine, along with front-line medical staff and younger adults with some underlying health conditions. The rollout began later that month.
Prof Ferguson, head of the modelling group at Imperial College London, told BBC Radio 4's Today Programme he saw "no reason why we shouldn't be rolling them out to younger age groups, once we've got through the priority groups, the over-50s and the clinically very vulnerable".
Modelling data on the immunity booster jabs provided to the UK population will be published next week, he said.
Prof Ferguson said he expected the data to be "very like" that seen in places such as Israel, where it showed people were "very substantially protected" after receiving their booster dose - not just from severe disease, "but even from just getting infected again, mild disease".
He added: "And that's what we've been missing in the last few months with the Delta variant, with people who have only had one or two doses."
He said, according to modelling carried out by his group and at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, rolling out booster jabs to younger age groups "could make quite a big difference to driving down transmission to low levels".
However, Prof Ferguson, whose modelling led to the first nationwide restrictions in 2020, added this would be a decision for the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) committee to make.

At least he thinks a "catastrophic winter wave" is unlikely, but is it reasonably feasible to offer booster jabs to everyone every year (I know that's not what's being suggested, but this is where we could be heading if we offer boosters for everyone)? We've never done so before, and if we did think it was feasible for the likes of flu, we'd have done so years ago. I would suggest a similar approach to annual flu vaccines for covid in future: give annual boosters for those identified as most vulnerable on the NHS, and offer it to others for a fee. Rolling out ~60-65 million doses every autumn is not feasible in the slightest, on top of all the other diseases we have vaccines for, like flu and MMR, not just in terms of staff logistics, but also the physical materials required to make, transport and store vaccine doses.
 
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Cdd89

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I would suggest a similar approach to annual flu vaccines for covid in future: give annual boosters for those identified as most vulnerable on the NHS, and offer it to others for a fee
I would agree with this. Though the fact is anyone can already get as many “first doses” as they like, since no ID is required at walk in clinics.

The fee is therefore really only for the certificate (and so would only be sought out by those who need it for going abroad to certain countries).
 

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At least he thinks a "catastrophic winter wave" is unlikely, but is it reasonably feasible to offer booster jabs to everyone every year (I know that's not what's being suggested, but this is where we could be heading if we offer boosters for everyone)? We've never done so before, and if we did think it was feasible for the likes of flu, we'd have done so years ago. I would suggest a similar approach to annual flu vaccines for covid in future: give annual boosters for those identified as most vulnerable on the NHS, and offer it to others for a fee. Rolling out ~60-65 million doses every autumn is not feasible in the slightest, on top of all the other diseases we have vaccines for, like flu and MMR, not just in terms of staff logistics, but also the physical materials required to make, transport and store vaccine doses.
I read it as simply saying a third dose should be offered, not that people should be boosted annually.

I would take a third dose of an mRNA vaccine if offered, given my previous doses were a viral vector vaccine and there is evidence to suggest that combining vaccine types provides greater efficacy (in addition to the evidence from Israel suggesting a third dose is also beneficial, though the Israel data is based on a sub-optimal dosing interval between 1st and 2nd doses, making the effectiveness of their 3rd dose potentially exaggerated for that reason)
 

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The Guardian is reporting (https://www.theguardian.com/politic...s-uk-to-be-offered-covid-booster-jabs-earlier, quoted below) that booster vaccinations will be available to people five months after their second vaccination, rather than six months. It feels a little shambolic, "they" complain that not enough people are taking up booster vaccinations but then they make it hard for us - I had to wait until six months had passed before being able to make an appointment, which is for the coming Friday, which is a couple of weeks longer than six months since my second one. When my GP administered the initial vaccinations I was able to make an appointment for the earliest possible day for the second vaccination.

Health policy

Millions to be offered Covid booster jabs earlier to protect NHS over winter

Exclusive: boosters to be offered five months after second dose as part of major change to vaccination rollout programme

Denis Campbell Health policy editor

Sat 13 Nov 2021 16.16 GMT

The government is to allow people to have their Covid booster jab after five months, a month sooner than the current policy, in an effort to help stop the NHS becoming overwhelmed this winter.

This major change to the vaccination programme could see ministers flouting the advice of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, which recommends that people should wait until six months after their second dose before having their top-up in order to maximise protection.

It is unclear whether the policy would apply only in England or across the four home nations.

It means that millions of Britons will be able to have their booster sooner than expected to reduce the risk of hospitals failing to cope with large numbers of people becoming seriously ill with Covid during the winter months, when they always come under intense pressure.

Anyone across the UK in cohorts one to nine – the priority groups that include frontline health and social care workers, millions with underlying health problems and all adults over 50 – will be able to book their extra vaccine once the change is formally announced.

Fears that waning immunity from the impact of second doses wearing off could fuel a surge in Covid hospital admissions in the coming months have prompted ministers to act.

Almost 12m booster doses have already been given. But there has been persistent criticism that the delivery of what ministers, doctors and scientists say are vital top-up shots has gone too slowly.

Key personnel across the NHS who are centrally involved in the vaccine programme have been told that Sajid Javid, the health secretary, has already approved shortening the gap. One source said that he last week authorised an amendment to the national protocol, the legal framework governing the programme, in order to implement the change.

Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary who chairs the Commons health select committee, last month challenged the JCVI’s stance and urged the government to cut the delay between second and third shots. Hunt said: “This decision that’s been made that you can’t have your booster jab until six months after you had your second jab – how hard and fast should that rule be?

“Does it really matter, when it’s only nine weeks till the Christmas holidays, if someone has a booster jab after five months?”

One source with knowledge of the switch in approach said: “Yes, the JCVI’s policy hasn’t changed. They recommend six months. But that’s guidance. We don’t have to follow that.

“The thing is, we need to get people vaccinated, so sometimes clinical decisions need to be taken. This is a practical decision to get people in to get them vaccinated before the winter, when all the respiratory viruses, including Covid, increase.

“The aim is to ensure that there is as high a level of immunity as possible going into the winter. The primary thing is to protect the population. Giving it at five months means that someone’s immune response from it is just as strong as if they’d got it at six months.”

Evidence from the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) shows that protection against someone getting symptomatic Covid falls from 65% in the first three months after the second dose down to 45% after six months for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, and from 90% to 65% for the Pfizer/BioNTech jab.

The JCVI originally approved a booster programme on 14 September, which began soon after. Vaccinators should use the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine as far as possible for third shots, because that “provides a strong booster response”, it said.

However, it was adamant that “the booster vaccine is offered no earlier than six months after completion of the [two-dose] primary vaccine course”. Ministers have followed that advice until now.

The JCVI relaxed the six-month rule a little last month when it said that some groups at the highest risk of becoming very unwell if they caught Covid, including care home residents and those undergoing immunosuppressive treatment, could have their top-up jab a month sooner.

Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the university of East Anglia, said switching to a five-month gap could help limit Covid’s damage. “I am not aware of any evidence that has compared the effectiveness of five-month v six-month booster jabs. I would guess that there wouldn’t be that much difference.

“So there could indeed be benefits in reducing the incidence of severe disease and death that bit more rapidly this winter by bringing this to all people being offered a booster,” he said.

But Hunter added that the government’s greater priority should be improving the uptake of booster jabs among at-risk groups, who have already been offered their top-up.

“The most important thing is to get the booster into more people in the most vulnerable groups, [those] who should already have been offered the booster but [have] not yet taken it up.

“In England there are still over a fifth of people over 70 who had their second dose more than six months ago [but] who have not yet had their booster, though that is improving each day.”

The Department of Health and Social Care was approached for a response.

On the separate subject of "professors", there is no pre-requisite qualification, although most of them will have post-graduate degrees and academic careers there's no requirement for any of this, people can be appointed as "professors" if they don't have O levels/GCSEs if the awarding institution determines to. So I tend to disregard the title as "academic fluff" although it has significance for some people I guess.

EDIT And I meant to say that I have worked with and continue to work with people called "professor", and I couldn't care less, I know them as "Gary" or whatever and don't think any more or less of them because of their title. But some people do, sadly I think. Generally I think the title means that they've stuck around for a long time and haven't got up the noses of really important people.
 
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asw22

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23/10/2021 on this same thread saw that this might be coming
I fully expect everybody to be offered a third dose, be it a booster or third primary, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to imagine a fourth as well. Beyond that who knows. I may be wrong of course but it looks to me like that’s where we’re heading. What concerns me more is the threat of sanctions being imposed for non-compliance as I don’t think we’re out of woods in regard to vaccine passports yet.

Apart from the annual flu vaccine, I cannot think of any other vaccine that is required every 6 months in order to be effective.

Another figure that did not come true was the 100K cases per day by August and it seems that the media seem to forget this when the Professor makes his predictions.

"Sajid Javid today admitted coronavirus cases could top 100,000 a day by August as the government pushes ahead with 'Freedom Day' - but insisted the 'wall of protection' from vaccines can hold.

Sajid Javid wearing a suit and tie: MailOnline logo© Provided by Daily Mail MailOnline logo
The Health Secretary gave the grim figure as he insisted Boris Johnson is right to continue with the dramatic unlocking on July 19, saying the hospitalisations and deaths were what mattered.

The PM was also given a boost this morning as 'Professor Lockdown' Neil Ferguson said he is 'optimistic' the 'gamble' of releasing restrictions will work - although he cautioned that cases could hit 200,000 a day and they might need to be reimposed if vaccines are slightly less effective than hoped and deaths surge."
 
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Freightmaster

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23/10/2021 on this same thread saw that this might be coming...
DustyBin said:
I fully expect everybody to be offered a third dose, be it a booster or third primary, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to imagine a fourth as well. Beyond that who knows. I may be wrong of course but it looks to me like that’s where we’re heading. What concerns me more is the threat of sanctions being imposed for non-compliance as I don’t think we’re out of woods in regard to vaccine passports yet.

Just seen this on another forum:
AFVgecg.jpg

(image is a screencap of a joke about the verbal gymnastics needed to justify vaccine doses 4-12)



Although it's only a parody, it makes me feel sick nonetheless... :(





MARK
 

asw22

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Just seen this on another forum:
AFVgecg.jpg

(image is a screencap of a joke about the verbal gymnastics needed to justify vaccine doses 4-12)



Although it's only a parody, it makes me feel sick nonetheless... :(





MARK


Trying to find a funny side maybe there's a song on its way with guest appearances from SAGE and ministers
"The 12 doses of christmas"
 

brad465

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The BBC have this report on waning immunity now from two doses over time:


There have been warnings from doctors and the UK's Health Security Agency that waning immunity is leading to deaths even of people who have had two doses of a Covid vaccine. So how much protection are we left with?
Let's nail some basics. The immune system has two big roles - to stop us getting infected, and if that fails, to clear our bodies of an infection.
I want you to stretch your imagination and picture your immune system as a medieval castle.
Surrounding the castle is a hostile and ruthless army of coronaviruses desperate to break in.
Your first defence is an outer wall patrolled by a legion of archers. These are your body's neutralising antibodies. If they can hold the viral army off, then you won't get infected.
But if the walls crumble and the antibody-archers wander off, then the virus is in. It has stormed the castle and you now have an infection.

Think of your body's defences like Bamburgh Castle - with the walls offering different types of protection
Yet all is not lost. There are still troops inside the fortified keep at the heart of the castle. These are your memory B and memory T cells. Like knights on horseback they can rally the troops, lead the immunological charge and send the hostile invaders packing.
The Covid vaccines have been training your body's troops - this includes both antibodies and those memory cells that react to an infection - to take on coronavirus.
At least one of those defenders is waning and this is not a surprise. This happens after every vaccine or infection.
"There is good evidence that antibodies are waning with time, and that has left us with obvious defects," says Prof Eleanor Riley, an immunologist from the University of Edinburgh.
The desertion of these antibody-archers from their posts, has been made worse by the emergence of the Delta variant. It is just better at spreading and getting into our body - it's like a new army rocking up outside the walls, but this one's brought a cave troll and siege weapons.

Many go in plenty about the trouble anti-vaxxers cause, but I think the more we report on vaccine problems like waning immunity, inability to prevent transmission, and how boosters are necessary to support immunity, the more fuel to the fire we give anti-vaxxers.

I think we need to remember that we are very lucky to even have vaccines for covid in the first place, let alone as quickly as they came about, especially as no vaccine for a coronavirus had ever been produced before, and now we have several different types. While we certainly should make use of what we've got, I think society, most especially the scientists pedalling an absolute need for everyone to be fully vaccinated and regularly given boosters, is starting to abuse its abilities/powers, and this is starting to come with its own consequences. There will never be 100% support for anything in life, whether it's to do with covid or something completely different, but those who demand everyone conforms are in my mind being counterproductive to getting as much support as possible for whatever the right cause is.
 

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The BBC have this report on waning immunity now from two doses over time:




Many go in plenty about the trouble anti-vaxxers cause, but I think the more we report on vaccine problems like waning immunity, inability to prevent transmission, and how boosters are necessary to support immunity, the more fuel to the fire we give anti-vaxxers.

I think we need to remember that we are very lucky to even have vaccines for covid in the first place, let alone as quickly as they came about, especially as no vaccine for a coronavirus had ever been produced before, and now we have several different types. While we certainly should make use of what we've got, I think society, most especially the scientists pedalling an absolute need for everyone to be fully vaccinated and regularly given boosters, is starting to abuse its abilities/powers, and this is starting to come with its own consequences. There will never be 100% support for anything in life, whether it's to do with covid or something completely different, but those who demand everyone conforms are in my mind being counterproductive to getting as much support as possible for whatever the right cause is.
More scaremongering from the BBC. Whilst in essence expect it's true doesn't mean your immune system totally forgets and is starting from scratch if you get infected, which is what this implies.
 

Bantamzen

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The BBC have this report on waning immunity now from two doses over time:




Many go in plenty about the trouble anti-vaxxers cause, but I think the more we report on vaccine problems like waning immunity, inability to prevent transmission, and how boosters are necessary to support immunity, the more fuel to the fire we give anti-vaxxers.

I think we need to remember that we are very lucky to even have vaccines for covid in the first place, let alone as quickly as they came about, especially as no vaccine for a coronavirus had ever been produced before, and now we have several different types. While we certainly should make use of what we've got, I think society, most especially the scientists pedalling an absolute need for everyone to be fully vaccinated and regularly given boosters, is starting to abuse its abilities/powers, and this is starting to come with its own consequences. There will never be 100% support for anything in life, whether it's to do with covid or something completely different, but those who demand everyone conforms are in my mind being counterproductive to getting as much support as possible for whatever the right cause is.
Whilst this article does point out how the immune system works, you can bet that most readers won't get that far. So many people will continue to perpetuate the myth that immunity wains, when in fact it is just antibody production that does.
 

brad465

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The Times is reporting that plans to extend the booster programme to under-50s are expected to be announced tomorrow:

1636931150029.png
 

Cdd89

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That’s good news. Personally I think boosters should be chargeable to those under 50, but I can see the argument for throwing everything we have at this winter and l expect uptake may not be that high anyway.
 

asw22

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That’s good news. Personally I think boosters should be chargeable to those under 50, but I can see the argument for throwing everything we have at this winter and l expect uptake may not be that high anyway.

Is it good news if you cannot find permanent employment, have turned off the heating and have one meal every two days, yet have to find £10 to travel to a vaccine centre every 3 months?
Or the constant news stream of people being vaccinated has encouraged copycat vaccinators in night clubs?
Or you're on a zero hours contract where you get penalised for taking time off work?
What happened to the NHS should be free at the point of use?

Why is the covid vaccination requirement in the NHS not including private health care companies from April?
What will happen if you require health care for something else in the NHS only to find that the consultant has left for the private sector?

It is positive though that over the past 2 years all other illnesses have been eradicated by the media and that people will live forever if they get vaccinated against covid.
 
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Eyersey468

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I can understand booster jabs may be necessary for the most vulnerable but is there any evidence that everyone needs a booster?
 

Yew

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I hate to break it to you but everyone's "favourite" so-called Professor is back attention seeking, by suggesting there's no reason why everyone shouldn't get boosters:
Ah, so our failed physicist is now pretending to be a top immunologist too?
 

Snow1964

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I can understand booster jabs may be necessary for the most vulnerable but is there any evidence that everyone needs a booster?

This is a Yes and No answer.

Yes, because the vaccine reduces the severity of the illness (and avoids people needing hospital treatment or dying), and it is now obvious that COVID could still be circulating for another 2-5 years, so people will have to get used to it like catching a cold. Also many of the doses given until about April were the Astra Zeneca which wanes faster (would be more logical to give boosters to those that had AZ rather than the round number 50years old)

No, because it is time consuming and expensive, and could be using vaccines that (if they could afford it) could go to poor countries.
 

Eyersey468

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This is a Yes and No answer.

Yes, because the vaccine reduces the severity of the illness (and avoids people needing hospital treatment or dying), and it is now obvious that COVID could still be circulating for another 2-5 years, so people will have to get used to it like catching a cold. Also many of the doses given until about April were the Astra Zeneca which wanes faster (would be more logical to give boosters to those that had AZ rather than the round number 50years old)

No, because it is time consuming and expensive, and could be using vaccines that (if they could afford it) could go to poor countries.
Thank you for the reply.
 

Darandio

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That’s good news. Personally I think boosters should be chargeable to those under 50, but I can see the argument for throwing everything we have at this winter and l expect uptake may not be that high anyway.

No. I'm 41 so if they want me to have a booster they are going to have to pay for it, even more so if we go down the line of having it as a requirement for certain activities.

I also feel that I don't need it anyway, give it to someone that really needs it instead. It's a complete farce now.

Van Tam has also just announced we can play our part in the future by "coming forward to get boosters as soon as they're called". It's quite clear the booster programme doesn't stop at over 40's.
 

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Personally I believe having boosters to tie us over until Molnupiravir for treatment is widely available is the right thing to do. At that point one would then hope we could do away with vaccines entirely, or give them equivalence to flu jabs ie taken once a year and targeted for over-50s and higher risk groups. Wouldn't surprise me if a combined C19 and flu shot was already in the works.

 

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I think if people have had evidence of COVID in the past 6 months, they don't need a booster. It just seems a waste of resources and means those who do need a booster can get it quicker.

You get a QR code in the app to show you've had COVID for travel purposes (as other countries do realise it contributes to immunity), so it's very easy to implement.
 

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I think if people have had evidence of COVID in the past 6 months, they don't need a booster. It just seems a waste of resources and means those who do need a booster can get it quicker.

You get a QR code in the app to show you've had COVID for travel purposes (as other countries do realise it contributes to immunity), so it's very easy to implement.
Quite a few countries do not account for immunity acquired from infection. Even the USA will only accept infection immunity if it was acquired within the past 90 days.
 

kristiang85

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Quite a few countries do not account for immunity acquired from infection. Even the USA will only accept infection immunity if it was acquired within the past 90 days.

Yes, when I said 'other' I meant 'some other', sorry.

But it is still bad science to ignore it, given natural immunity can last at least a decade, if not for life (evidenced by studies from SARS 1).
 

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Boris has just been on Sky News saying that the people in hospital with covid are (and I quote) "all unvaccinated". Giving him the benefit of the doubt (sort of!) perhaps this was intended as a "noble lie" but it does little for the credibility of our vaccination strategy in my opinion.
 

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Boris has just been on Sky News saying that the people in hospital with covid are (and I quote) "all unvaccinated". Giving him the benefit of the doubt (sort of!) perhaps this was intended as a "noble lie" but it does little for the credibility of our vaccination strategy in my opinion.
It does little for the credibility of Boris, who - yet again - says things that he wishes were true rather than things that are true. Nothing new there.

ONS states (19/8/2021) (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...les/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/vaccines)

Two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech or Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine are estimated to be 96% and 92% effective against hospitalisation with the Delta variant, respectively​

 

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yorkie

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I don't see any issue with the recent development that 3 doses is considered optimal but some people are interpreting it as an annual booster will be required for the general population, which I think is unhelpful.

...the more we report on vaccine problems like waning immunity, inability to prevent transmission, and how boosters are necessary to support immunity, the more fuel to the fire we give anti-vaxxers...
Yes, the inconsistency, changing of the goalposts, doom-mongering and appalling messaging of those who wish for restrictions to continue in largely vaccinated populations are all bolstering the confidence and reach of the anti-vax movement.

What was an almost unheard tiny fringe movement has now become a highly visible and vocal well organised group that is able to gain the hearts and minds of many ordinary people.

I think the vast majority of people are happy to get vaccinated but under the expectation that normal life can resume.

Boris has just been on Sky News saying that the people in hospital with covid are (and I quote) "all unvaccinated". Giving him the benefit of the doubt (sort of!) perhaps this was intended as a "noble lie" but it does little for the credibility of our vaccination strategy in my opinion.
It will be true with the exception of very elderly people or people who have other comorbidities, with very few exceptions.

The proportion of cases among those who are unvaccinated is much greater than among those who are vaccinated; furthermore vaccinated cases are much more likely to be mild.

Among the vaccinated and/or young people I know who are getting Covid, their symptoms are always very mild, and those people who are more ill tend to have other viruses. A lot of youngsters I know are getting Covid and are generally only off school because of the requirement to isolate rather than actually feeling really ill. And a lot of youngsters I know are off ill with other viruses.
 

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I don't see any issue with the recent development that 3 doses is considered optimal but some people are interpreting it as an annual booster will be required for the general population, which I think is unhelpful.

To be fair that was certainly what Boris was suggesting during the press conference. It looks as though you'll need to have had three doses to be "fully vaccinated" in the near future. That's not to say annual boosters will be required indefinitely of course.

Yes, the inconsistency, changing of the goalposts, doom-mongering and appalling messaging of those who wish for restrictions to continue in largely vaccinated populations are all bolstering the confidence and reach of the anti-vax movement.

What was an almost unheard tiny fringe movement has now become a highly visible and vocal well organised group that is able to gain the hearts and minds of many ordinary people.

I think the vast majority of people are happy to get vaccinated but under the expectation that normal life can resume.

I agree with all of this. In regard to your final point above, I think this was also the case at the beginning of the year so you can't blame people for asking questions at this stage.

It will be true with the exception of very elderly people or people who have other comorbidities, with very few exceptions.

The proportion of cases among those who are unvaccinated is much greater than among those who are vaccinated; furthermore vaccinated cases are much more likely to be mild.

Among the vaccinated and/or young people I know who are getting Covid, their symptoms are always very mild, and those people who are more ill tend to have other viruses. A lot of youngsters I know are getting Covid and are generally only off school because of the requirement to isolate rather than actually feeling really ill. And a lot of youngsters I know are off ill with other viruses.

The latest surveillance report has a fairly equal split although it's true to say that the vast majority of vaccinated hospitalisations are in the older age groups. Its also true to say that proportionately the unvaccinated are over represented, I don't dispute the fact. It's the wildly inaccurate claims that annoy me, why can't we have a grown up conversation?
 
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