Three possible solutions.
1) add a Newark call into Hull Trains services which would immediately restore a reasonable service between Retford, Newark and Grantham.
2) Run a Newark-Sheffield service possibly EMR or Northern calling only at Retford and Worksop. This could be two-hourly to connect with Lincoln services, and could possibly work in tandem with Northern’s Sheffield-Gainsborough Central service.
3) if no suitable path for 2 above, run a RRB express coach from Newark to Retford - this could also serve the two town centres, since both stations are a bit of a route march. Could it also extend to Doncaster, serving the sizeable communities of Bawtry and Rossington?
All valid but I doubt any would ever happen in reality for the following reasons:
1) Hull Trains have never stopped at Newark so I doubt they will have any rights to stop there.
2) I very much doubt there would be a path for a Newark to Sheffield via Retford Northern or EMR service.
3) That's not really an RRB you're suggesting (as it's still possible to travel between Newark and Retford, just on very few services per day or by travelling via Doncaster).
The problem is though that functionally no-one is doing these journeys. LNER provided a bar chart in their consultation (reproduced below from page 30) which suggests that there are only 13 LNER return journeys per day between Newark and Retford. Compare this to the 1,000s for Newark - London and the hundreds for Retford - London. Obviously there can be an element of "if you build it they will come" and improving the connectivity between Newark and Retford would no doubt stimulate demand. But the choice has to be made. Do you serve (and probably stimulate more demand from) the existing London based market or do you speculative try and increase the market between two small(ish) market towns in Nottinghamshire? I think the answer is, sadly, quite obvious which is the best use of finite resources.
The reality is that connections like this will always end up playing second fiddle. Well, at least until HS2 Phase 2b arrives (if it does...).
I agree with what you are saying, but the other argument is where do you draw a line? Do we shut stations that have few passengers because there's no need to serve them? Surely a railway should provide a good service at all stations on the network - hourly ideally, although I appretiate this won't be possible or viable in many cases. It doesn't matter if Retford isn't connected to Newcastle, Edinburgh or even Leeds by a direct train in my option as long as there's a good connection within 10-15 mins at key stations such as Doncaster or York. But to not be able to reach the next station just 15 mins along the line seems as though operation conveninence is being put before providing a service to all potential users.
Your point about "at least until HS2 Phase 2b arrives (if it does...)" is very valid - if it does get built then long distance services can be slowed down and more Retford calls can be added. I don't feel confident that it will go ahead, especially now with the financial effects of the pandemic.
The local journeys have always caused issues for as long as I can remember.
BR used to have London - Leeds stopping Peterborough, Grantham, Newark, Retford (alternate hours) and Doncaster.
GNER mixed things up a little, probably to spread the load. Retford would appear in a service such as the 0650 Glasgow - London, were the service would not stop after Retford until Peterborough. It was very difficult to travel between adjacent station pairs until the timetable we have now was introduced.
However,
Car Parking (off-peak) at Newark is £5
Day return - £13
For a service that is essentially every 2 hours. If you have car you will drive.
If you don't have a car you will probably go to Lincoln / Nottingham (if you live in Newark) or Lincoln / Sheffield (if you live in Retford)
It is a chicken and egg, the service isn't going to entice anyone to use it. Newark - Grantham may do better because it is more frequent, but the A1 isn't really that congested in the area.
Interesting to see Newark - Lincoln on the charts. I wonder if that is combined EMR or LNER only passenger counts. A reasonable number of people join / alight at Newark on the LNERs but I think Newark Castle still gets the majority of traffic. those joining at Northgate it is impossible to tell if they started their journey there or have used it to change from the North.
It looks like the BR stopping service is similar to what we have now and that works fairly well (although it would be great if Retford got an hourly service). You are right about driving though, but if the service was more frequenct than it may tip the balance somewhat (especially when the cost of fuel and maintenance is added and if the passenger had a Railcard).
This is precisely the point; the "local" journeys have basically had a regular hourly/two-hourly connections for a decade (May 2011), via the King's Cross-Newark/Lincoln/York service. And demand is still minuscule.
How much longer must the "tail wag the dog" for by designing in for these tiny flows in the timetable, when (in passenger demand terms), far greater prizes lie elsewhere? Can't say that East Coast/VTEC/LNER haven't tried....
But a two hourly connection isn't the most convenient. If it was hourly and the demand was still low than that would be different.
Even the flow between Newark and Grantham is only served every two hours and that is the largest of the flows between the stations between Peterborough and Doncaster according to the charts showing the demand (interestingly it seems the flow between Newark and Grantham is marginally bigger than the flows from either station to Peterborough or Doncaster where hourly trains are retained!)
I don't think providing, say, an hourly stopping path is too much to ask? Aside from the obvious benefit of allowing faster journey times to the likes of Leeds/Newcastle and Edinburgh by not having Inverness trains calling at Newark.
Clearly all moot points as the timetable is obviously already at an advanced stage of development, this is merely another justification for decisions already taken dressed up as a consultation.
Even a stopper between Peterborough and Doncaster per hour, with wait for a path at Retford, would hugely improve connections if the service could connect into a London train at Peterborough and into a Leeds/Edinburgh train at Doncaster. I doubt it will ever happen though.
Sadly I agree that it's almost certainly too far down the line (No pun intended!) to make any significant changes.