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Virgin Trains East Coast franchise to end 24 June 2018 and is temporarily re-nationalised

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route:oxford

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Stevenage To York Advance: Just £13.20! It's bananas!

That's outrageous.

I'd be doing London to Stirling in February for £16.20 if I hadn't chosen to go First Class and paid £32.

You should raise a complaint that travellers from Stevenage are being done over.
 
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Starmill

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Stevenage To York Advance: Just £13.20! It's bananas!
What's bananas about that? Booking 6 months in Advance and for a 150ish mile journey with no refund rights and no value if you miss the train? I would not pay much more than £13.20 for that. Who has their travel plans firmed up 3 months in advance, let alone 6? Also that's actually fairly typical of the cheapest tier of Advance for that kind of journey. Finally, it's almost impossible to book at that price now.
 

DarloRich

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What's bananas about that? Booking 6 months in Advance and for a 150ish mile journey with no refund rights and no value if you miss the train? I would not pay much more than £13.20 for that. Who has their travel plans firmed up 3 months in advance, let alone 6? Also that's actually fairly typical of the cheapest tier of Advance for that kind of journey. Finally, it's almost impossible to book at that price now.

This may shock you: I agree.
 

Class 170101

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Do we know if the service improvements to Lincoln< middlesbrough, Huddersfield, Harrogate etc are still going ahead?
 

mwmbwls

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How robust is the franchising system as currently operated? Is this a result of the same or different underlying causes? Do we have what we used to call in my career in Corporate Recovery “A Spring-Loaded Corpse” scenario?

Nils Pratley writing in the Guardian on the 6th December 2017 wrote about the re-negotiation of contract terms for the Virgin East Coast Franchise.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2017/dec/06/new-vision-railways-short-sighted

……….., rail bosses are dumbfounded that Stagecoach is being bailed out ……… on the East Coast main line. And they struggle to understand how Grayling’s new “public-private partnerships” are supposed to work. The model – to be adopted on some lines but not on others – just seems to add complexity to a franchising system that is already baffling.

First, the Stagecoach affair: as Lord Adonis, former transport secretary under Labour, has been saying loudly, the soft-shoe shuffle looks outrageous. Stagecoach, in partnership with Virgin Group, won the East Coast franchise by promising to pay the Treasury £3.3bn under a contract that was supposed to run until 2023. Now that contract – currently loss-making for Stagecoach – is being ripped up early, to be replaced in 2020 by the new-fangled public-private arrangement.

The net effect is that Stagecoach is off the hook, more or less. It may still forfeit £165m, but there’s no chance of it being asked to honour the original contract. Instead, new terms will be renegotiated to run until 2020 and, hey presto, the company can also bid in the next round.

It’s a sweetheart deal, rivals complain privately. You can’t blame them. They have had their fill of Stagecoach preaching about other firms bidding aggressively to win contracts. They were looking forward to seeing the tables turned.

Why aren’t they saying so out loud? Partly, one suspects, because they may wish do business with Grayling themselves one day. Adonis claimed on Wednesday that FirstGroup is consulting its lawyers to see if, post-Stagecoach, it can get help with its loss-making TransPennine Express franchise. The company says not, but Adonis’s underlying point remains: Grayling may have set a costly (for taxpayers) precedent on the East Coast line


This report raises several questions

1: The East Coast Franchise has been in trouble before. In some cases, this has been down to parent company problems splashing the franchisee whilst in others it has been the result of over optimistic bidding. There used to be a back-up arrangement whereby Direct Rail Services took over the service – Is this still an option available to the DfT?

2: If multiple franchises are being operated why is the cancellation bond required on the remaining franchises not escalated to reflect the proven increased risk of that operator defaulting. Does some form of joint and several liability clause need to be introduced into future franchising arrangements? I appreciate that this would then be priced into any future franchise bids. In which case is there not a case for the revival of the public/private price comparator test that was used to justify privatisation but then was dropped/parked once the assets/liabilities were off the Government’s books.

3: Is there any other source that confirms the Andrew Adonis tweet that started this hare running.

RAIL FRANCHISING CRISIS: First Group losing big money on Trans-Pennine Express, having overbid for it, and I'm told its lawyers looking 'very carefully' at Chris Grayling's bail-out of Stagecoach/Virgin on East Coast last week. Cost to HMG of bailout could run into the billions!

4: Who else is in trouble? In the bazaars of Preston, the name of the other North of England franchisee is mentioned, gossip is rife. Is this purely because of the delivery issues of the Electrification programme and the rolling stock cascade are tearing a hole in their cash flow? There is certainly a major amount of management time being devoted to planning round wobbles in infrastructure delivery. Does the ballyhoo and razzmatazz of the Ordsall Chord hide deeper problems?
 

IanXC

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1: The East Coast Franchise has been in trouble before. In some cases, this has been down to parent company problems splashing the franchisee whilst in others it has been the result of over optimistic bidding. There used to be a back-up arrangement whereby Direct Rail Services took over the service – Is this still an option available to the DfT?

Directly Operated Railways (who ran the East Coast franchise) has been wound up, and as I understand it the DfT are paying a collection of management consultants to continue to be ready to step in if required.

2: If multiple franchises are being operated why is the cancellation bond required on the remaining franchises not escalated to reflect the proven increased risk of that operator defaulting. Does some form of joint and several liability clause need to be introduced into future franchising arrangements? I appreciate that this would then be priced into any future franchise bids. In which case is there not a case for the revival of the public/private price comparator test that was used to justify privatisation but then was dropped/parked once the assets/liabilities were off the Government’s books.

I suppose one way around this would be to change the way that this works, if rather than the DfT organising this themselves, they required bidders to engage an insurance company in providing a policy to cover the risk of default, then there could be a much better link to the risk of an owning group handing back one of its franchises.
 

gsnedders

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If a large part of the cause is NR failing to deliver planned improvements in the timescale the franchise premiums rely upon, why is the contract with the franchisee not written such that the payments only increase if and when NR delivers? Because it sounds like that would potentially have avoided this.
 

JaJaWa

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42851274

East Coast rail franchise decision investigated by watchdog

The decision to allow two firms operating the East Coast Main Line to cut short the contract is being looked into by the public spending watchdog.

In November, the Department for Transport said Virgin and Stagecoach could withdraw from running the London to Edinburgh service three years early.

The National Audit Office will now investigate the government's handling of the £3.3bn franchise.

Ministers said any suggestion taxpayers would be out of pocket was wrong.

It comes after critics of the decision, including Lord Adonis, former chair of the National Infrastructure Commission, said the move could eventually cost the taxpayer billions of pounds.

'Bailing out' firms
In 2014, Virgin and Stagecoach signed a deal to run the East Coast line until 2023, promising the government £3.3bn in premiums.

However Martin Griffiths, chief executive of Stagecoach, which owns 90% of the joint venture, admitted last year that it had overpaid for the contract.

He said the business had been affected by delays in upgrading the UK's rail infrastructure.

David Horne, managing director of Virgin Trains East Coast, also said last week that the delay meant plans to introduce a new fleet of high speed trains on the route by 2019 "were no longer deliverable".

Virgin boss Sir Richard Branson has said the dealhad cost Virgin and Stagecoach £100m.

Transport Secretary Chris Grayling announced last year that the deal to operate the line would be replaced by a new model which would be "a joint venture between the public and private sector, operated by a single management, under a single brand and overseen by a single leader".

Mr Grayling said: "It means when things go wrong, there's one team to sort it out."

But the government has been accused of "bailing out" the franchise by Labour peer Lord Adonis, who nationalised the East Coast Main Line in 2009 when its then operator National Express was unable to make its payments.

Mr Grayling said earlier this month: "It's much more complex than that. Lord Adonis is not involved in this; he's got his facts wrong."

The NAO now says it will examine the decision to cut short the contract, as well as the new East Coast Partnership which will take over its running in 2020.

The NAO said: "We expect to examine the [government] department's management of the franchise to date and the implications of its plans for the new partnership."

A spokesperson from the Department for Transport said: "The government has been very clear - no one is getting a bailout and Virgin Stagecoach will continue to meet its financial commitments made to the taxpayer on the East Coast rail franchise, as it has done since 2015.

"Premium payments continue to flow to the taxpayer, as they currently do, and any suggestion that the taxpayer will be out of pocket is completely wrong."
 

swt_passenger

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Directly Operated Railways (who ran the East Coast franchise) has been wound up, and as I understand it the DfT are paying a collection of management consultants to continue to be ready to step in if required.
Directly Operated Railways was also a group of management consultants on contract to DfT. Very little different to present situation AIUI.
 

aylesbury

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Overbidding is the result of DFT policy they admitted it and seem proud of it ,this needs to.be stopped and a realistic system put in place.NR need to up the ante and actually start delivering the improvents,obviously the GWR fiasco has put the whole company in problems and a recruitment programme of qualified engineers should take place from a worldwide platform.
 

meolebrace

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Someone told me earlier Virgin are losing the WCML...but I haven't seen in the news.
 

aylesbury

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Whats wrong with Virgin WCML they have good trains and staff they should keep the franchise and if they lose it hope that First aren't in charge.,on fares one year I travelled MK Glasgow return for 70pence standard class that's what I call a win.
 

IanXC

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NR need to up the ante and actually start delivering the improvents,obviously the GWR fiasco has put the whole company in problems and a recruitment programme of qualified engineers should take place from a worldwide platform.

As the Transport Select Committee established, there are no infrastructure issues for this franchise at the current time, no infrastructure that should be available isn't. Over and above that, the infrastructure issues related to later works that the DfT had failed to find, however a plan for these has now been established.

Beardy's claim that upgrades have not been delivered is a long way from the truth!

Whats wrong with Virgin WCML they have good trains and staff they should keep the franchise and if they lose it hope that First aren't in charge

They aren't 'Virgin's trains' neither would the staff disappear if the franchise were taken over by another bidder.
 

Chrisgr31

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If a large part of the cause is NR failing to deliver planned improvements in the timescale the franchise premiums rely upon, why is the contract with the franchisee not written such that the payments only increase if and when NR delivers? Because it sounds like that would potentially have avoided this.

You would have thought that would be a sensible option, although it appears the improvements in this case were never promised in the first place.
 

158756

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You would have thought that would be a sensible option, although it appears the improvements in this case were never promised in the first place.

If the improvements were never promised it is farcical that the government signed off on a contract to deliver something they knew to be impossible.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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If the improvements were never promised it is farcical that the government signed off on a contract to deliver something they knew to be impossible.

The improvements were promised by DfT (on behalf of Network Rail), and the VTEC revenue projections beyond 2019 were based on that.
NR won't confirm their plan because funding for major CP6 enhancements is not agreed, but in any case will be late.
It's another consequence of the cost/time overrun on the electrification projects.
The competition for ICWC (WCP) has not even started yet, we are still waiting for the ITT (another DfT late delivery).

The government also signed off franchises for Northern, TPE and GWR when Network Rail were incapable of delivering the parallel upgrades.
The NAO investigation is more likely to castigate the DfT and Network Rail than VTEC.
 

meolebrace

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Every time there’s a franchise competition there’ll be rumours that the incumbent is finished. Must be some sort of internet rule.
I was told it had been quoted somewhere.

I disagree..I now hope Virgin lose the WCML. Chiltern offer a far better, less faffy service.
 

JaJaWa

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This thread is about Virgin Trains’ East Coast franchise ending.
 

Failed Unit

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Modern railways had an interesting article on it. The NAO report will make interesting reading.

From what I understand agrees with many of the posts above. The power supply upgrades won’t be completed in time putting at risk the 4hr London - Edinburgh mk4 service (hence why we are seeing rumours about HST)

The knock on issue of great western electrification having a knock on effect of IEP delivery. Again this is gossip so don’t know how much truth they have in it but even the May 2019 IEP based improvements are at risk. Which is a concern as Lincoln could be achieved by extending the original path from Newark as was the plan before the 180s were removed from the east coast plan.
 

IanXC

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All those wishing to attribute blame to Network Rail may wish to consider their evidence to the Transport Select Committee:

https://www.parliament.uk/documents...ainline-with-response-attached-15-01-2018.pdf

Network Rail said:
The first part, referred to as PSU1, was for the route from Wood Green to Bawtry (south of Doncaster) and was completed in August 2017 to budget and programme. The second part of this is the power supply further north to Edinburgh, referred to as PSU2. The settlement for CP5 did not include the delivery of PSU2 and accordingly we have yet to commit to delivering the works and alwe presented options for design to the Department of Transport (DfT) in October 2017.

So it may (I don't believe we have seen a programme yet) be that this infrastructure is delivered on time or it may be that it is late, either way the DfT promised it to the bidders without having agreed funding for NR to actually carry it out.
 

Failed Unit

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All those wishing to attribute blame to Network Rail may wish to consider their evidence to the Transport Select Committee:

https://www.parliament.uk/documents...ainline-with-response-attached-15-01-2018.pdf



So it may (I don't believe we have seen a programme yet) be that this infrastructure is delivered on time or it may be that it is late, either way the DfT promised it to the bidders without having agreed funding for NR to actually carry it out.

Which i think is basically what we are about to find out.

If this gets nasty DFT are just as on the hook as stagecoach. Hence why we are where we are. “Don’t poke the sleeping bear”
 

Roast Veg

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It seems to me that the DfT have actually made a relatively smart move with this decision, though I am glad that it is being audited to confirm whether it is true. VTEC desperately wanted a renegotiation after the DfT promised them the upgrade work that wasn't actually guaranteed, so at the negotiating table the DfT have granted them some leeway but got them to take on some infrastructure responsibility themselves.
 
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Someone told me earlier Virgin are losing the WCML...but I haven't seen in the news.

If there is any ICWC info you or anyone else has, pop it in here! https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/west-coast-franchise.147486/page-3

Not surprised at the NAO's announcement and it's only right to do so; considering the mess that VTEC is now within.

The words of Kirsty Wark on Newsnight - on the evening of the 2012 Scrapping of First winning the West Coast being "The words 'They couldn't run a piss up in a buffet car' spring to mind" - are certainly true!
 

route:oxford

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I disagree..I now hope Virgin lose the WCML. Chiltern offer a far better, less faffy service.

Are you planning on closing the WCML north of Birmingham? A Chiltern service isn't much good to anyone trying to get to Carlisle or Glasgow.
 
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