WCML new trains: suggestions, ideas and predictions

[toby_farman]

Moderator note: Split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/wcml-new-rolling-stock-discussion.188847/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Coast_Rail#Future_fleet
Who will make the new trains for the operator?

 

[NoMorePacers]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Coast_Rail#Future_fleet
Who will make the new trains for the operator?
View attachment 69606

A Japanese company beginning with H that have had many FirstGroup commisions recently.

 

[toby_farman]

A Japanese company beginning with H that have had many FirstGroup commisions recently.

Suppose you mean Hitachi?
Do you have any proof of this?

 

[NoMorePacers]

Suppose you mean Hitachi?
Do you have any proof of this?

I don't think there is any proof, so it's not a fact, but considering other things which are facts then it's an inevitability.

 

[toby_farman]

I don't think there is any proof, so it's not a fact, but considering other things which are facts then it's an inevitability.

Would they be similar to the class 800s/801s/802s/395s or brand new "tilting" designs like the pendolinos?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Would they be similar to the class 800s/801s/802s/395s or brand new "tilting" designs like the pendolinos?

Almost certainly no tilt. I would expect "bog standard" 5x26m IET, same as on GWR, TPE or LNER but with different coloured seats. I must admit if I was them I'd go all bi-mode for diversionary flexibility, though.

 

[VT 390]

If the new stock does not have any tilt will they still be able to do 125mph on the routes they will operate?

 

[toby_farman]

If the new stock does not have any tilt will they still be able to do 125mph on the routes they will operate?

Short answer, no.
Long answer, no.
Even longer answer, if there's no tilt they can only go at a maximum of 110 mph. Other posters are probably wrong, any new trains would almost certainly match the class 390 "pendolinos" in terms of performance, capacity, infrastructure usage and speed.

 

[MalaiseForever]

Short answer, no.
Long answer, no.
Even longer answer, if there's no tilt they can only go at a maximum of 110 mph. Other posters are probably wrong, any new trains would almost certainly match the class 390 "pendolinos" in terms of performance, capacity, infrastructure usage and speed.
View attachment 69607

Not necessarily true anymore. There have been a few articles suggesting NR are working on (or at least looking at) upping the non-tilt speed to 125 on the WCML. There was a very good article from Gareth Dennis in Rail Magazine a few issues back.

 

[Nick Ashwell]

Short answer, no.
Long answer, no.
Even longer answer, if there's no tilt they can only go at a maximum of 110 mph. Other posters are probably wrong, any new trains would almost certainly match the class 390 "pendolinos" in terms of performance, capacity, infrastructure usage and speed.
View attachment 69607

So everyone expecting 80x's is definitely wrong but you're definitely right? We don't know anything for sure yet but considering the cost for such a small order of tilting units, especially pending a decision on HS2 would be too high considering no manufacturer is currently offering a UK guage tilting train, you might be able to get more 390s but that doesn't answer the requirement for a bi-mode unit. When taking into account the fact that the 80x units are becoming the UK standard high-speed units ordering a micro-fleet of very specialised units is asking for trouble.

 

[Darandio]

Other posters are probably wrong

Go back through the thread, there are plenty of reasons why they may well be right.

 

[MalaiseForever]

So everyone expecting 80x's is definitely wrong but you're definitely right? We don't know anything for sure yet but considering the cost for such a small order of tilting units, especially pending a decision on HS2 would be too high considering no manufacturer is currently offering a UK guage tilting train, you might be able to get more 390s but that doesn't answer the requirement for a bi-mode unit. When taking into account the fact that the 80x units are becoming the UK standard high-speed units ordering a micro-fleet of very specialised units is asking for trouble.

It won’t be more 390s because they don’t meet new crash worthiness regulations and the production line has long since closed down.

 

[toby_farman]

It won’t be more 390s because they don’t meet new crash worthiness regulations and the production line has long since closed down.

Similar trains could easily be made, even by Alstom, that meet crash worthiness regulations...

 

[MalaiseForever]

Similar trains could easily be made, even by Alstom, that meet crash worthiness regulations...

So you agree that there won’t be any more 390s then? And also, no manufacturer is going to set up a new production line for a micro fleet of 23 trains. It makes no economic sense whatsoever. It is almost definitely going to be 80x. As has been explained many, many times in this thread.

 

[toby_farman]

So you agree that there won’t be any more 390s then? And also, no manufacturer is going to set up a new production line for a micro fleet of 23 trains. It makes no economic sense whatsoever. It is almost definitely going to be 80x. As has been explained many, many times in this thread.

They look like "Seimens Velaro" trains in the images...
https://www.westcoastpartnership.co.uk/plan.html

 

[MalaiseForever]

Agreed, no more 390s, but similar tilting trains can still be made, albeit not class 390s.

No manufacturer is going to make 23 bespoke tilting trains. No ROSCO is going to fund them. It makes no economic sense.

 

[MalaiseForever]

They look like "Seimens Velaro" trains in the images...
https://www.westcoastpartnership.co.uk/plan.html

What they look like in preliminary marketing material is irrelevant. This has all been covered further up the thread. Feel free to review it. There’s no need for us to go round in circles.

 

[toby_farman]

No manufacturer is going to make 23 bespoke tilting trains. No ROSCO is going to fund them. It makes no economic sense.

They will be tilting, if they're not tilting, they can't go at 125mph.

 

[Bletchleyite]

They will be tilting, if they're not tilting, they can't go at 125mph.

They will not be tilting - there is not a suitable tilting train on the market, and a bespoke design for that small an order is not viable. The 80x is a bespoke design to the Government, but that was viable due to the very large (and ongoing) order. If that means they can't go at 125mph, they won't.

There is a small chance of CAF getting the EMU order, but I'd still put my money on 80x.

 

[Nick Ashwell]

They will be tilting, if they're not tilting, they can't go at 125mph.

Which manufacturer will do such a short run of a tilting train that they have to totally redesign to the UK loading guage? If someone would pay enough for such a small run then sure it could happen but look how much more we could have to pay for classic compatible HS2 units compared to buying ones designed for the European loading guage. No ROSCO will front the money for a totally new design and no manufacturer will pay for the development costs with it being impossible for them to see enough orders to break even, you're flogging a dead horse

 

[MarkyT]

Various narrow gauge Hitachi A train products for far eastern markets have tilt incorporated, including the 885 series for JR Kyushu, and a derivative for Taiwan. which look very similar to our IET.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/885_series
The Hitachi system is a 'hybrid' technology incorporating powered actuators combined with natural passive tilt.
http://www.hitachi-rail.com/products/rolling_stock/tilting/feature05.html
They have managed to incorporate this within narrow gauge clearances that are in fact very similar to UK historical values on the conventional standard gauge network, and which feature a similar high platform.
https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/ファイル:Rolling-Stock-Gauge-in-Japan.svg
(Blue = older narrow gauge, grey = more modern narrow gauge, green = Shinkansen standard gauge)
Note Japanese trains designed for the narrow gauge (including mini-shinkansen services over branch lines converted to standard gauge) often incorporate a 'tumblehome', a narrowing of the car body just above the solebar level to clear the high platforms. This is very familiar feature to UK observers.
All lends weight to the theory that the UK's main line railway system was built to narrow gauge proportions in all respects apart from track gauge!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Passive tilt won't work in the UK loading gauge due to the need to have a narrowed vehicle at roughly platform level for it to naturally swing out. It would have to be so narrow that you might even have to go to 2+1 seating, but have a wider vehicle higher up where that's not useful.

 

[toby_farman]

Various narrow gauge Hitachi A train products for far eastern markets have tilt incorporated, including the 885 series for JR Kyushu, and a derivative for Taiwan. which look very similar to our IET.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/885_series
The Hitachi system is a 'hybrid' technology incorporating powered actuators combined with natural passive tilt.
http://www.hitachi-rail.com/products/rolling_stock/tilting/feature05.html
They have managed to incorporate this within narrow gauge clearances that are in fact very similar to UK historical values on the conventional standard gauge network, and which feature a similar high platform.
https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/ファイル:Rolling-Stock-Gauge-in-Japan.svg
(Blue = older narrow gauge, grey = more modern narrow gauge, green = Shinkansen standard gauge)
Note Japanese trains designed for the narrow gauge (including mini-shinkansen services over branch lines converted to standard gauge) often incorporate a 'tumblehome', a narrowing of the car body just above the solebar level to clear the high platforms. This is very familiar feature to UK observers.
All lends weight to the theory that the UK's main line railway system was built to narrow gauge proportions in all respects apart from track gauge!

Are you suggesting that the new trains will be made by Hitachi and similar to narrow gauge tilting far eastern trains like the class 395 was related to the 400 series Mini Shinkansen?
And more importantly, are you suggesting the new trains will definitely include tilting mechanisms?

 

[Jozhua]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Coast_Rail#Future_fleet
Who will make the new trains for the operator?
View attachment 69606

802's for bi-modes and 801's/397's for EMUs would make sense based on rolling stock that has already been made and legwork on getting it tested/certified has been completed.

Or something tilting with 140mph potential maybe...

 

[MarkyT]

Are you suggesting that the new trains will be made by Hitachi and similar to narrow gauge tilting far eastern trains like the class 395 was related to the 400 series Mini Shinkansen?
And more importantly, are you suggesting the new trains will definitely include tilting mechanisms?

I have no insider knowledge of the procurement, but I am suggesting that plausibly Hitachi could propose a tilt variant of the AT300 uk series, based on their experience with domestic narrow gauge. Whether they actually propose such a train, and whether the client will want the extra complexity is another matter, especially if significant mileage of greater maximum speed can be created cost effectively without tilt.

 

[toby_farman]

When HS2 finally opens, the WCML will be even more heavily used by commuters...
What I mean is surely it's not a waste to upgrade the line now, allowing fast commuter services to run later on?
Let's order 11 car EMUs and BMMUs from Siemens/Alstom/Bombardier/Hitachi which can tilt and have a top speed of 125mph/140mph that will be an "evolution" of the Pendolinos...?

 

[toby_farman]

I have no insider knowledge of the procurement, but I am suggesting that plausibly Hitachi could propose a tilt variant of the AT300 uk series, based on their experience with domestic narrow gauge. Whether they actually propose such a train, and whether the client will want the extra complexity is another matter, especially if significant mileage of greater maximum speed can be created cost effectively without tilt.

Why can't they make more 390s I mean they'll probably not have the same TOPs number because of safety stuff. They wouldn't be exactly the same but would match the pendolinos in speed and capacity...?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

No manufacturer is going to make 23 bespoke tilting trains. No ROSCO is going to fund them. It makes no economic sense.

While I'm not expecting new tilting trains for the WCML, you are not correct about small batches of tilting trains from Alstom.
Almost all their production has been for small batches of 10-20 units for places like Portugal, Poland, Finland and the cross-Alpine routes, all with unique requirements.
Alstom has bid before for new stock for the WCML (2012 and since) which would use the New Pendolino design already in service elsewhere.
Yes, it needs adapting for the UK, but not all of the continental design needs to be thrown out of the window.
But I expect we'll get non-tilting AT300s.

There are two conflicting threads at the moment about the viability of non-tilt 125mph operation on the WCML.
I'm inclined to go with the view that it's possible but only with some track realignment, which is expensive and time-consuming, and it's not in NR's CP6 plans.
HS2 might bring it on, but that's by no means certain yet.
Whether faster acceleration up to 110mph can claw some time back, we'll have to see.
Otherwise, Chester/North Wales passengers can look forward to a slower journey from London when the new trains arrive.

 

[toby_farman]

While I'm not expecting new tilting trains for the WCML, you are not correct about small batches of tilting trains from Alstom.
Almost all their production has been for small batches of 10-20 units for places like Portugal, Poland, Finland and the cross-Alpine routes, all with unique requirements.
Alstom has bid before for new stock for the WCML (2012 and since) which would use the New Pendolino design already in service elsewhere.
Yes, it needs adapting for the UK, but not all of the continental design needs to be thrown out of the window.
But I expect we'll get non-tilting AT300s.

There are two conflicting threads at the moment about non-tilt 125mph operation on the WCML.
I'm inclined to go with the view that it's possible but only with track realignment, which is expensive and time-consuming, and it's not in NR's plans.
HS2 might bring it on, but that's by no means certain yet.
Whether faster acceleration up to 110mph can claw some time back, we'll have to see.
Otherwise, Chester/North Wales passengers can look forward to a slower journey from London when the new trains arrive.

I've found a rare photo of the new trains for the WCML*:

*May not accurately represent new trains

 

[geoffk]

It won’t be more 390s because they don’t meet new crash worthiness regulations and the production line has long since closed down.

390s don’t meet new crash worthiness regulations but they evidently did when new. My question is, when did they cease to meet them and why? And, if the "powers that be" keep tightening up these regulations will railways just become unaffordable? To my knowledge, there's only been one major accident involving a Pendolino.