West Coast Franchise speculation

[AndrewE]

Liverpool... has friendly people, lots of shops, universities (so a student population and the retail & entertainment that goes with that,) world-class art galleries & museums, industrial and civic heritage, a good public transport network, historic and modern/niche pubs, parks (don't forget I am including the Wirral.) In fact if I had to move home it would be near the top of my destination list.

You could say that about nearly any city though.

Maybe, but Greater London conspicuously lacks the first attribute.

 

[B&I]

But bear in mind that the reason they are changing there is because there are some ridiculously cheap walk-up and Advance tickets if you stick to LNR services only. Quite a lot of them will be going to London, not places like Rugeley. (They already have a direct service to Stafford twice an hour).

Just about the most popular thing you could do for Liverpool with regard to the WCML, I suspect, would be to extend the LNR Crewe service to Lime St hourly, even if that resulted in the loss of one of the two Brum services.

Maybe the number of LNR end-to-end passengers is because of Virgin's infrequent and often-crowded service to the city, and lack of advance tickets. LNR also offers cheap advances to London from eg Manchester, but take-up is not I suspect so great because the more frequent Virgin services mean passengers are not prepared to put up with the longer and less convenient LNR journey.

Re your alternative suggestion, why must Liverpool always lose something before it can gain something else ? If extending the Trent Valley stopper to Liverpool is an obvious step (which I would say it is, along with a corresponding service to Manchester, perhaps splitting at Stafford or Crewe) then why can't Liverpool have a decent service ro Birmingham (and preferrably beyond) as well ?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Maybe, but Greater London conspicuously lacks the first attribute.

That it does, but the other cities by and large don't, certainly not those outside what you might call the NSE area.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Re your alternative suggestion, why must Liverpool always lose something before it can gain something else ? If extending the Trent Valley stopper to Liverpool is an obvious step (which I would say it is, along with a corresponding service to Manchester, perhaps splitting at Stafford or Crewe) then why can't Liverpool have a decent service ro Birmingham (and preferrably beyond) as well ?

Because there aren't enough Class 350s. Once the new stock arrives it may be possible, of course. Or perhaps some 360s could be obtained.

 

[ForTheLoveOf]

LNR also offers cheap advances to London from eg Manchester

I don't see any of these in the fares data. Or do you mean that people from Manchester might split Advances at Stoke-on-Trent, Stafford or Crewe - using Virgin Trains, CrossCountry or Northern Advances to those stations?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't see any of these in the fares data. Or do you mean that people from Manchester might split Advances at Stoke-on-Trent, Stafford or Crewe - using Virgin Trains, CrossCountry or Northern Advances to those stations?

Yes, plenty of them do. Ironically the cheap tickets from Stoke to Manchester are on...VT!

 

[HSTEd]

Why ? I ask again, why does everywhere else require direct services to intermediate stations on the WCML, whereas Liverpool passengers have to change ?

HS2 trains to Manchester will stop at essentially none of the intermediate stops currently served.
(Stockport, Macclesfield, Stoke-on-Trent, Wilmslow, Milton Keynes Central and Crewe)

HS2 trains to Birmingham will stop at only one of the intermediate stations currently served.
(They will miss Coventry, Rugby, Watford Junction and Milton Keynes Central - only picking up Birmingham International)

HS2 trains to Liverpool will pick up two of the intermediate stations and only miss one
(They pick up Crewe and Runcorn and only miss Stafford)

Urgo there is likely to be far more demand to travel on classic trains to existing intermediate destinations from Manchester and Birmingham, compared to Liverpool (even ignoring the population discrepencies which are against Liverpool) - where the only direct Liverpool journey lost by not having a classic service are Stafford-North passengers.

 

[The Ham]

The Liverpool services could run on either HS2 or WC without impacting the calling patterns, in that there's no stops south of the junction from HS2 to the WCML (as at the end of phase 1).

This isn't the case of other services.

.Sorry, can you explain this please ?

The current Liverpool services don't normally call at any stations between London and where they could turn off HS2. As such there's no need for them to use the WCML when leaving London.

This isn't always the case on the other services on the diagram in question, where they were stopping at places like MK or Coventry, which would have to use the WCML.

 

[B&I]

HS2 trains to Manchester will stop at essentially none of the intermediate stops currently served.
(Stockport, Macclesfield, Stoke-on-Trent, Wilmslow, Milton Keynes Central and Crewe)

HS2 trains to Birmingham will stop at only one of the intermediate stations currently served.
(They will miss Coventry, Rugby, Watford Junction and Milton Keynes Central - only picking up Birmingham International)

HS2 trains to Liverpool will pick up two of the intermediate stations and only miss one
(They pick up Crewe and Runcorn and only miss Stafford)

Urgo there is likely to be far more demand to travel on classic trains to existing intermediate destinations from Manchester and Birmingham, compared to Liverpool (even ignoring the population discrepencies which are against Liverpool) - where the only direct Liverpool journey lost by not having a classic service are Stafford-North passengers.

So, as I suspected, Liverpool receives not just a slower, lower capacity HS2 service, but also misses out on the residual WCML service that is said to be vital to other cities. A triple whammy.

Does it occur to you that anyone from Liverpool might want to travel to somewhere between Crewe and London, for example Stafford, currently the easiest place to connect to WC services in the absence of direct XC services to Liverpool ?

 

[B&I]

The current Liverpool services don't normally call at any stations between London and where they could turn off HS2. As such there's no need for them to use the WCML when leaving London.

This isn't always the case on the other services on the diagram in question, where they were stopping at places like MK or Coventry, which would have to use the WCML.

So, because Liverpool is currently more poorly connected than other cities, there is no scope whatsoever for reviewing that when extra capacity is released by HS2 ?

 

[B&I]

I don't see any of these in the fares data. Or do you mean that people from Manchester might split Advances at Stoke-on-Trent, Stafford or Crewe - using Virgin Trains, CrossCountry or Northern Advances to those stations?

I've seen cheap advances to London with LM advertised in Manchester. I assume LNR haven't changed that policy

 

[B&I]

Because there aren't enough Class 350s. Once the new stock arrives it may be possible, of course. Or perhaps some 360s could be obtained.

Good, so when more stock is available everything is up for grabs

 

[Bletchleyite]

Good, so when more stock is available everything is up for grabs

It'd be good for them to take on any available 360s anyway, the 319s need scrapping, they are just too unreliable. Ideally they would take on enough (plus the TPE 350/4s) to end WCML 4-car running[1] entirely as well as extra stuff like this.

[1] The HConn 360s may be particularly useful here - there are almost no south WCML services for which 4-car is adequate, but there are certainly some for which 5-car might well be.

 

[The Ham]

So, because Liverpool is currently more poorly connected than other cities, there is no scope whatsoever for reviewing that when extra capacity is released by HS2 ?

That's not what is being said, the diagram is solely on existing services to demonstrate the extra capacity available. Which is 5tph, or 4tph of there's a need to cover a few of the gaps which others have highlighted.

 

[B&I]

It'd be good for them to take on any available 360s anyway, the 319s need scrapping, they are just too unreliable. Ideally they would take on enough (plus the TPE 350/4s) to end WCML 4-car running[1] entirely as well as extra stuff like this.

[1] The HConn 360s may be particularly useful here - there are almost no south WCML services for which 4-car is adequate, but there are certainly some for which 5-car might well be.

As long as suitable seats and layouts are in place, could you use the 360s for at least some services between Liverpool and Brum ?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Could you use the 360s for at least some services between Liverpool and Brum ?

That might not be a bad idea at all - for quite a few of those services 4 car is inadequate but only just so, a bit like the Southern WLL services which got much better when they went from 4 to 5-car (though they are now all 8).

 

[B&I]

That's not what is being said, the diagram is solely on existing services to demonstrate the extra capacity available. Which is 5tph, or 4tph of there's a need to cover a few of the gaps which others have highlighted.

Sorry, this is my confusion. I thought this diagram was being put forward as the basis for future services, without any significant alteration. That seemed to be what HSTed was saying.

 

[The Ham]

Sorry, this is my confusion. I thought this diagram was being put forward as the basis for future services, without any significant alteration. That seemed to be what HSTed was saying.

My understanding of what HSTed was saying was that the diagram showed the extent of existing services that would be retained post HS2. How this changes (and given some of the gaps highlighted show that it isn't quite as simple as indicated) future services is up for grabs.

 

[Mollman]

It'd be good for them to take on any available 360s anyway, the 319s need scrapping, they are just too unreliable. Ideally they would take on enough (plus the TPE 350/4s) to end WCML 4-car running[1] entirely as well as extra stuff like this.

[1] The HConn 360s may be particularly useful here - there are almost no south WCML services for which 4-car is adequate, but there are certainly some for which 5-car might well be.

It appears the the 360s aren't that reliable either. 319s are apparently perfectly acceptable up in the North-West so why not on Euston commuter services?

 

[Bletchleyite]

It appears the the 360s aren't that reliable either. 319s are apparently perfectly acceptable up in the North-West so why not on Euston commuter services?

I'm fairly sure Northern have also been having issues with them, with lots of DMU substitutions? They do have rather more of them (and more spares) so a problem would be less visible.

Northampton seem to be able to make Desiros very reliable, so I would be reasonably confident they could achieve that with any Desiro.

 

[cle]

So, because Liverpool is currently more poorly connected than other cities, there is no scope whatsoever for reviewing that when extra capacity is released by HS2 ?

The difference is that the HS2 trains will serve the same route.

Manchester will see duplication due to the HS2 route and the classic routes via Wilmslow and also Macclesfield - hence a need to serve those interim places too.

Whereas HS2 will cover off Runcorn and Crewe too. And the 2tph to Birmingham will augment those, including Stafford. That’s a pretty decent service headed south (4tph).

I think Liverpool is missing Cumbria/Scotland and both North and South Wales links more critically than WCML South capacity (by HS2 time), but these should be addressed by then too. Maybe not Cardiff to date, but that could be attacked via Halton or Crewe (further connectivity south).

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The reason Liverpool doesn't get 2tph VT is because there are not enough 390s, or paths to run them.
DfT has prevented new 390 orders in the VT direct awards, and HS2 has taken out capacity at Euston.
This means the extra capacity generated at Norton Bridge can't be used (towards Euston).
The most crowded current hourly VT service is the direct Glasgow (South of Preston), not the Liverpool, which does get extra peak services and mostly 11-car 390s.
Liverpool-Stafford gets 2tph WMT.
Plenty of other places stand to lose out on HS2 (Stoke, Chester, Coventry etc)
It's not simple.
WMT is prevented from running direct London services across Crewe because the DfT doesn't want VT/WCP losing long-distance revenue (ie premiums).
.

 

[HSTEd]

Sorry, this is my confusion. I thought this diagram was being put forward as the basis for future services, without any significant alteration. That seemed to be what HSTed was saying.

This diagram was merely meant to serve as a starting point for discussion, there are five paths freed by that diagram which would deployed so as to do the most good.
It is likely that additional trains to Liverpool would score highly on that measure.

But it demonstrates that substantial new service opportunities are available.

You could also consider a system where all the top-tier classic trains run via Birmingham.

 

[krus_aragon]

I think Liverpool is missing Cumbria/Scotland and both North and South Wales links more critically than WCML South capacity (by HS2 time), but these should be addressed by then too. Maybe not Cardiff to date, but that could be attacked via Halton or Crewe (further connectivity south).

The new Wales and Borders franchise is going to address much of that: by December 2022 there'll be 1tph from Liverpool to Llandudno and Shrewsbury (with 0.5tph extending to Cardiff).

 

[route101]

Liverpool is getting direct trains to Glasgow this Dec is it not ?

 

[kje7812]

Liverpool is getting direct trains to Glasgow this Dec is it not ?

Was that TPE? If so, that's been put back till (at least) May 19.

 

[KashmireHawker]

Was that TPE? If so, that's been put back till (at least) May 19.

Correct

 

[pt_mad]

Nope, they head eastwards during phase 2 construction and you will have less than 16 platforms.

Does anyone know which platforms may or will be closed at Euston for HS2 phase 1 construction? Are they closed already? And what impact will this have on normal day to day services between now and HS2 operation commencing? Will there be a reduced timetable between now and 2026 due to a shortage of platforms at Euston?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Does anyone know which platforms may or will be closed at Euston for HS2 phase 1 construction? Are they closed already? And what impact will this have on normal day to day services between now and HS2 operation commencing? Will there be a reduced timetable between now and 2026 due to a shortage of platforms at Euston?

16-18 will close I believe, though I'm not quite sure when. No, they aren't closed yet. The impact will be reduced layovers and (if I recall correctly) some stock needing to be moved out for servicing rather than this being done in the station. No, there won't be a reduced timetable.

Found this:
https://hs2ineuston.commonplace.is/schemes/proposals/hs-2-euston-station-design-development/details

Much later it appears 14 and 15 will also close replaced by more HS2 platforms.

 

[pt_mad]

16-18 will close I believe, though I'm not quite sure when. No, they aren't closed yet. The impact will be reduced layovers and (if I recall correctly) some stock needing to be moved out for servicing rather than this being done in the station. No, there won't be a reduced timetable.

Found this:
https://hs2ineuston.commonplace.is/schemes/proposals/hs-2-euston-station-design-development/details

Much later it appears 14 and 15 will also close replaced by more HS2 platforms.

And will HS2 services be able to use any platform in 2026 or just the high number platforms? I.e. the ones thatwill be closed soon.