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What if...HS2 is scrapped?

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NSEFAN

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Minimise station dwell times (review door opening/closing/despatch procedures) - and train the staff and the passengers to play their parts!
maximise acceleration with new trains,
optimise stopping patterns
Path trains without backside-covering padding so that junctions and platforms are not blocked by trains just "waiting time"
Use permissive block where it will allow a second train into a platform when one would not otherwise be available
plus...
tweak the infrastructure where it constrains capacity (eliminate single lead junctions, etc.)
put in low-tech intermediate block sections where train headways are impacted by long signal sections
p.s. should have also said keeping on top of maintenance to ensure no loss of capacity due to train, points and signal failures!
I can't speak for operating practices as I don't work on the railway, but I would guess that "slickening up" dispatch without making it less safe will be difficult, at least without the use of better PTI detection systems to give a faster indication that its safe to depart. There seems to be a perception that staff are more likely to lose their jobs or get prosecuted these days if a passenger comes to harm, and nobody in their right mind wants to goto prison. Hence just telling staff to get a move on won't necessarily go down well.

On the timetabling side, the schedule needs padding to make it reliable. The Swiss railway is held up as a bastion of smooth operation and yet this is because their network is not so close to capacity and schedules are padded to make them reliable. Taking out the padding gives you a railway which only works if nothing ever goes wrong and passengers behave themselves. In a way, there's no point adding more "capacity" if you end up causing a much larger number of people to get stuck on broken/delayed trains when it all goes wrong. Without any recovery time, the number of people affected by a problem will keep on growing and getting worse. This is already the case where XC services affected in the Edinburgh area cause knock on effects around Exeter, for example.
 
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AndrewE

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I can't speak for operating practices as I don't work on the railway,
I did, for quite a number of years, including taking courses intended to give you a broader understanding of how it all hung together. I was also friends with people doing "time and motion" type studies who were very aware of the causes of apparently trivial delays - and how they could snowball very quickly.
but I would guess that "slickening up" dispatch without making it less safe will be difficult, at least without the use of better PTI detection systems to give a faster indication that its safe to depart. There seems to be a perception that staff are more likely to lose their jobs or get prosecuted these days if a passenger comes to harm, and nobody in their right mind wants to go to prison. Hence just telling staff to get a move on won't necessarily go down well.
I was pointing out that lots of dispatch procedures are inefficient because of the rules which are in place because of the interactions between several companies, and at least one company's instructions are actually physically impossible to carry out. In general it's not lax staff, but it does happen, and delays can rebound down the line.
On the timetabling side, the schedule needs padding to make it reliable. The Swiss railway is held up as a bastion of smooth operation and yet this is because their network is not so close to capacity and schedules are padded to make them reliable. Taking out the padding gives you a railway which only works if nothing ever goes wrong and passengers behave themselves. In a way, there's no point adding more "capacity" if you end up causing a much larger number of people to get stuck on broken/delayed trains when it all goes wrong. Without any recovery time, the number of people affected by a problem will keep on growing and getting worse. This is already the case where XC services affected in the Edinburgh area cause knock on effects around Exeter, for example.
What do we do if HS2 is scrapped? I suggested getting every possible seat-mile out of what we have. Yes, some contingency is intelligent, but padding to protect on-time arrivals can lead to trains arriving out of course at stations or junctions, or blocking junctions while being held to follow in their turn, or even queuing on a 2-track main line for access to a a single-lead junction.

Well yes, you do see examples of where operating practice could be slicker.

But where is this actively stopping more trains from being accommodated in the timetable? Bear in mind that (for example) the southern WCML fasts (the main beneficiaries of HS2) see up to 15 trains per hour (at 3 minute headways on a 90-120 second technical signalling capability), 60-120 second scheduled dwell times at critical locations and relatively little schedule "padding", so what sloppy operating that does exist (of which there is very little) is noticeable through poor performance, not the timetable.
I think you have made my point for me. 3 minute headway, 120 seconds dwell time (which seems to be regularly exceeded in my experience on the WCML - quite a few are often easily found if you look at RTT, for example) and the train behind has been checked.
One organisation focussed on performance (to avoid knock-on delays) would have simplified dispatch by now: platform staff confirm doors clear for closing, guard pushes button, gives a green to platform supervisor confirming that all interlocks made and then the platform supervisor's hand-held RA sender could be pushed instantly - but in most cases the on-train system could be used to cut out these last 2 steps anyway.
 

The Planner

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I will cut and paste again, define "padding". PTT vs WTT does not count as thats a TOC thing.
 

Ianno87

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I did, for quite a number of years, including taking courses intended to give you a broader understanding of how it all hung together. I was also friends with people doing "time and motion" type studies who were very aware of the causes of apparently trivial delays - and how they could snowball very quickly. I was pointing out that lots of dispatch procedures are inefficient because of the rules which are in place because of the interactions between several companies, and at least one company's instructions are actually physically impossible to carry out. In general it's not lax staff, but it does happen, and delays can rebound down the line. What do we do if HS2 is scrapped? I suggested getting every possible seat-mile out of what we have. Yes, some contingency is intelligent, but padding to protect on-time arrivals can lead to trains arriving out of course at stations or junctions, or blocking junctions while being held to follow in their turn, or even queuing on a 2-track main line for access to a a single-lead junction.

I think you have made my point for me. 3 minute headway, 120 seconds dwell time (which seems to be regularly exceeded in my experience on the WCML - quite a few are often easily found if you look at RTT, for example) and the train behind has been checked.
One organisation focussed on performance (to avoid knock-on delays) would have simplified dispatch by now: platform staff confirm doors clear for closing, guard pushes button, gives a green to platform supervisor confirming that all interlocks made and then the platform supervisor's hand-held RA sender could be pushed instantly - but in most cases the on-train system could be used to cut out these last 2 steps anyway.

No I haven't made your point for you.

The timetable (and thus the capacity of the railway as a whole) is planned on (for example) 120 seconds for a Pendolino at Milton Keynes.

As you say, this often gets exceeded. Usually due to passenger volumes, but the dispatch procedure sometimes doesn't help.

So do you:
A) Increase the planned dwell time to account for this, or
B) 'Sharpen up' platform procedure to reliably achieve the existing dwell?

Well...
A) Means taking trains out of the WCML timetable, thus strengthening the case for HS2 in order to replace this capacity
B) Just brings you back to 120 second dwells the already existing planned timetable, upon which the capacity of the timetable is defined and the case for HS2 is already built.

I have observed Pendolinos dwelling at Milton Keynes in 90 seconds on occasion, but only with a low exchange of passengers and sharp as a button dispatching. Not credible to plan routinely and across the day as a whole.
 

AndrewE

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I will cut and paste again, define "padding". PTT vs WTT does not count as thats a TOC thing.
OK, maybe its mainly the public tts that are padded, eg an extra 1 or 2 minutes from Stockport in to Piccadilly for the Euston trains and an extra 7 on top of the 8 minute outbound running time for the Cardiffs. I must have been unlucky in my travelling as it has definitely felt as though we have had several minutes wait to get into the other termini I travel to, although I admit that by that point I am not watching our times against the WTT.
 

Ianno87

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OK, maybe its mainly the public tts that are padded, eg an extra 1 or 2 minutes from Stockport in to Piccadilly for the Euston trains and an extra 7 on top of the 8 minute outbound running time for the Cardiffs. I must have been unlucky in my travelling as it has definitely felt as though we have had several minutes wait to get into the other termini I travel to, although I admit that by that point I am not watching our times against the WTT.

Alot of that sort of thing is not "padding" (I loathe that term). It's getting trains to fit together on a bloomin' busy network!
 

PR1Berske

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From the Daily Mail about the forthcoming Dispatches documentary


The latest signs of a rethink came in a Dispatches investigation called HS2: The Great Train Robbery, which is due to air tomorrow night on Channel 4 at 8pm.

A senior Government source told the programme: 'The costs are spiralling so much we've been actively considering other scenarios, including scrapping the entire project.'

Ministers reportedly believe the annual costs, previously estimated at £4.2billion a year over the next decade, could end up being £6billion.

Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...s-Dispatches-Great-Train-Robbery-reveals.html



Description of the show:

From April, the government will start spending over £4 billion a year on the HS2 high-speed train line, for ten years. Is this the right part of the rail network to receive so much investment?
 

kylemore

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I think this has become a very relevant thread because the mood music is not good for HS2.

What would it take for Chiltern to be able to run say 3x12 cars an hour from Marylebone to Birmingham - that would take the pressure off for 3 or four years?
 

JamesT

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I think this has become a very relevant thread because the mood music is not good for HS2.

What would it take for Chiltern to be able to run say 3x12 cars an hour from Marylebone to Birmingham - that would take the pressure off for 3 or four years?

https://cdn.networkrail.co.uk/wp-co...-Midlands-and-Chilterns-Route-Study-Final.pdf suggests some work is already needed to allow that route to cope with expected demand assuming HS2 goes ahead. http://www.railtechnologymagazine.c...extensions-to-boost-capacity-on-chiltern-line talks of increasing platforms to cope with 9-car trains. So you're going to have to redo that work to extend to 12-car (assuming no constraints that make that impossible). You're increasing the frequency from 2 to 3 an hour (assuming you're extending the existing end to end trains) which may be challenging to schedule amongst the other demands on the two-track line and the relatively small termini.
It's only alleviating issues for end to end journeys between London and Birmingham for a short time and doesn't help at all with intermediate stops on the WCML.
 

Ianno87

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https://cdn.networkrail.co.uk/wp-co...-Midlands-and-Chilterns-Route-Study-Final.pdf suggests some work is already needed to allow that route to cope with expected demand assuming HS2 goes ahead. http://www.railtechnologymagazine.c...extensions-to-boost-capacity-on-chiltern-line talks of increasing platforms to cope with 9-car trains. So you're going to have to redo that work to extend to 12-car (assuming no constraints that make that impossible). You're increasing the frequency from 2 to 3 an hour (assuming you're extending the existing end to end trains) which may be challenging to schedule amongst the other demands on the two-track line and the relatively small termini.
It's only alleviating issues for end to end journeys between London and Birmingham for a short time and doesn't help at all with intermediate stops on the WCML.

And passengers would continue to pile on the WCML anyway as it would remain much faster than the Chiltern route, unless WCML fares are increased fairly heftily to price off demand.

And then cue loads of pissed off Chiltern commuters (some already pissed off by HS2 passing through their neck of the woods) now having to stand because their trains are now full of West Midlands commuters, or have their stops withdrawn to provide the necessary capacity.
 

The Ham

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I think this has become a very relevant thread because the mood music is not good for HS2.

What would it take for Chiltern to be able to run say 3x12 cars an hour from Marylebone to Birmingham - that would take the pressure off for 3 or four years?

Which would mean that HS2 phase 1 (or something else comparable) would still be needed by 2030.
 

The Ham

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Nobody - you nor i - can say what is needed by the year 2030.

Based on the fact that rail growth has reached 2020/2021 levels which were predicted in 2009, assuming that rail growth continues then there's going to be a need for more rail capacity. (Let's call that I'm right).

Now it could well be that passenger numbers don't grow by very much or even shrink. In which case there wouldn't necessarily be as big a case for providing extra rail capacity (Let's call that you're right).

What happens if we do as you suggest and don't build HS2 and then find that something like it is required? We could well be in the situation where there's no time to build something and trains are rammed and there's debates about what train services we need and what services should be cut to allow those services which are required.

Now what will happen if you're right and we didn't need to build HS2? As long as passenger numbers don't drop by more than 25% from the current numbers then there's still going to be more passengers than there was in 2009. HS2 will make travel between Manchester and Southampton easier and faster, in which case it will free up capacity on XC services as well as Virgin services. As such it would make rail travel for quite a lot of people more comfortable. Yes it would increase the cost of the railways to the nation, but that is pretty much it.

However if rail travel is more comfortable then chances are you would see some increases in the numbers using it.
 

Ianno87

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Nobody - you nor i - can say what is needed by the year 2030.

The reality is that is the timescale over which any railway infrastructure upgrade must be planned or delivered, be it new lines like HS2 or upgrades to existing lines.

It is necessary to take an educated guess *now* as to what railway demand will be like in 2030 and many years beyond that. And it is precisely that - a forecast based on known economic and population conditions and extrapolating from that.

What the forecasts do tell us is that the current railway basically has no capacity whatsoever for growth at peak times (irrespective of whether growth is at 4% or 4.5%, it's irrelevant), so that leads to a choice:
-Patch and mend for now with the odd extra or longer train here and then (but in reality is just kicking the can down the road a bit until it all fills up again) or
-Build something (HS2) that solves basically any level of forecast growth for many years to come, but we need to start *now* to do so!
 

6Gman

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Nobody - you nor i - can say what is needed by the year 2030.

No, but forward planning isn't a bad idea ...

Or are you one of those Brexiteers # who call any warnings about what might happen in the future "Project Fear"?

Rail use has risen consistently over the years - why assume that will suddenly change?





# I know you're not. :D
 

R G NOW.

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Yes, I think the money would be better spent, finishing off what has been started, especially by moor street. scrapping phase 2, and spending on the existing routes by getting the line from Maindee north junction to Shrewsbury and the one completed from westerleigh junction to Bromsgrove provided with OHLE This would help to cut c02 emissions even further. It would allow more duel trains to run and the wires could also go from Worcester shrub hill to Didcot. These lines are already there, and are heavily used. What do you think?. I also feel some 4 tracking would increase capacity.
 

The Ham

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Yes, I think the money would be better spent, finishing off what has been started, especially by moor street. scrapping phase 2, and spending on the existing routes by getting the line from Maindee north junction to Shrewsbury and the one completed from westerleigh junction to Bromsgrove provided with OHLE This would help to cut c02 emissions even further. It would allow more duel trains to run and the wires could also go from Worcester shrub hill to Didcot. These lines are already there, and are heavily used. What do you think?. I also feel some 4 tracking would increase capacity.

Where have there been things that have been started which are now not being finished because HS2 has absorbed all the spending?

Last financial year NR spent about £4bn on enhancements whist HS2 spent about £2bn.

Going forward HS2 is likely to be spending about £4.5bn a year, yet NR spending is set to also increase, so possibly there's going to be comparable spending on both.
 

R G NOW.

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Where have there been things that have been started which are now not being finished because HS2 has absorbed all the spending?

Last financial year NR spent about £4bn on enhancements whist HS2 spent about £2bn.

Going forward HS2 is likely to be spending about £4.5bn a year, yet NR spending is set to also increase, so possibly there's going to be comparable spending on both.

So, because of that extra then?, are we going to maybe see what I put above. i.e about further electrification.
 

anme

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If HS2 to cancelled, we had better start work on a massive new motorway through the Chilterns.
 

anme

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There is one, the M40.

Yes I am aware of that. But we need extra capacity so we had better build another one.

As an alternative, we could ban private cars from the M1 and M40, and only allow buses and goods vehicles. This would hugely increase the capacity of the motorway.
 
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Bucephalus

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Because my comment is not really threadworthy in my opinion, I have a speculative question:

Should the new build bits (liverpool-manchester-bradford-leeds) of Northern Powerhouse Rail be included in HS2 phase 2 (phase 2c perhaps?)?

Obviously the £56bn budget will need to be increased but at least that means one less target to inevitably miss. I think this would make hs2 an easier sell to, well, everyone outside the M25.

Transport for North can still carry on their project focussing on the finer details such as upgrades and the small matter of the entire north east
 

Glenn1969

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Given that many current Transpennine trains are currently full with standing all the way to Leeds I think Manchester capacity and the removal of the bottleneck at Piccadilly 13/14 is needed now not in 2033. Is Piccadilly 15/16 actually dead now or does it still have some life in it?
 

R G NOW.

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Given that many current Transpennine trains are currently full with standing all the way to Leeds I think Manchester capacity and the removal of the bottleneck at Piccadilly 13/14 is needed now not in 2033. Is Piccadilly 15/16 actually dead now or does it still have some life in it?

From what I saw on that programme the other day, the north needs more investment, having loads of people trying to ram into an already full class 142 is nothing short of ridiculous. Also it was noted that some were being left behind on a platform, having to wait for the next one, which was also full up and they are then late for work. I want to say, that this way could be damaging peoples health? Could even be worse than smoking.
 
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