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What is freight projection for the next 10 years on UK rails?

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richieb1971

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Hi,

I've heard a lot of news that the UK is going green, that rail is the greenest mode of transport and that projects like HS2 will briefly increase the amount of freight traffic on our network.

But, GBRf seem to be the only FOC that is ever increasing its loco numbers, there are no new maintenance depots and the emphasis on growing freight seems to be in the intermodal sector.

Tinsley is being developed into a intermodal site and I read ages ago that Junction 15a of the M1 will have a new depot built there. Not sure whats happening near St Albans way I think thats stuck in the mud.

Is there anything else that has gotten a green light or opened recently? Are the FOC's able to handle an increase in traffic? Are there paths for this available?

In other words, if there any signs of evidence a big boom for UK rail freight?

Thanks.
 
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matacaster

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Unfortunately where lines have spare capacity does not seem to correspond with where freight wants to go. A further issue is that it takes far too long to provide new capacity at pinchpoints. By the time capacity is available the traffic source or destination has often changed or ceased. Eg took ages to get extra capacity on S&C for coal and then only of use for a few years before coal traffic stopped. Another example is aggregates traffic went solely by road from Horton-In-Ribblesdale for many years and its only in the last couple that its switched to rail - should have had investment years ago as those heavy lorries plagued local villages.
 

ExRes

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Hi,

I've heard a lot of news that the UK is going green, that rail is the greenest mode of transport and that projects like HS2 will briefly increase the amount of freight traffic on our network.

But, GBRf seem to be the only FOC that is ever increasing its loco numbers, there are no new maintenance depots and the emphasis on growing freight seems to be in the intermodal sector.

Tinsley is being developed into a intermodal site and I read ages ago that Junction 15a of the M1 will have a new depot built there. Not sure whats happening near St Albans way I think thats stuck in the mud.

Is there anything else that has gotten a green light or opened recently? Are the FOC's able to handle an increase in traffic? Are there paths for this available?

In other words, if there any signs of evidence a big boom for UK rail freight?

Thanks.

One of the supposed benefits of HS2 is that paths will then become available for an increase in freight on the WCML, obviously there'll be an increase in freight traffic during the construction but then it's all down to the costs of rail v road and the ability of rail to put itself forward as reliable and efficient while also pushing the environmental benefits
 

The Planner

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They won't get past the development phase unless NR say there is capacity for the projected traffic. You have the Northampton Gateway scheme, Four Ashes and Cannock (paths have been in for that for ages but the terminal has never got going). The one across the road from Northampton Gateway has gone quiet. I know of three others which are currently being developed which arent yet in the public domain.
 

D6130

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Another potential traffic flow - and one that has ebbed and flowed over the past sixty years - is timber in the Scottish Highlands. Last winter trials were carried out over a period of about six weeks for timber being loaded at Georgemas Junction and railed to Inverness for the Norboard factory at Dalcross, close to Inverness Airport, using pairs of West Coast 37s in multiple travelling overnight. The plans for the new station and passing loop at Dalcross include a fairly lengthy siding into the plant, which would avoid having to transship the timber onto lorries for the last part of the journey. I believe that paths have also been reserved on the West Highland Line for future timber trains from Rannoch to Corpach for when the felling of the extensive Rannoch Moor forests starts in the near future.
 

Carlisle

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They won't get past the development phase unless NR say there is capacity for the projected traffic.
There’ll be hundreds of sidings closed over the last 40-50 years that BR served with a few freight trains a week that didn’t require elaborate capacity upgrades to coexist with the passenger railway
 

The Planner

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There’ll be hundreds of sidings closed over the last 40-50 years that BR served with a few trains a week that didn’t require elaborate capacity upgrades to coexist with the passenger railway
That isnt comparing apples with apples though.
 

Rail Ranger

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One thing which would help develop freight traffic would be if a way could be found to reduce access charges for through freight trains using the Channel Tunnel. Even with Brexit there must be a considerable amount of international traffic which could be attracted to rail if only it wasn't so much cheaper to send it by lorry.
 

richieb1971

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I won't believe in a freight boom until the FOC's are investing heavily in drivers and locos. Unless GBRf are the only FOC able to win new contracts (which to be honest they are getting the lions share right now), the other FOC's don't seem to be growing.

Its nice to see 3 unpublicized depots being planned, but it is not mentioned if these depots are being planned/built on projected freight paths or just have the capability to run rail frieight from those places.

Does anyone have a graph of say the last 20 years of rail freight pickup?
 

The Planner

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I won't believe in a freight boom until the FOC's are investing heavily in drivers and locos. Unless GBRf are the only FOC able to win new contracts (which to be honest they are getting the lions share right now), the other FOC's don't seem to be growing.

Its nice to see 3 unpublicized depots being planned, but it is not mentioned if these depots are being planned/built on projected freight paths or just have the capability to run rail frieight from those places.

Does anyone have a graph of say the last 20 years of rail freight pickup?
Like i said earlier, if they cant find paths for them they are not going to get far. The proposers will say where they expect the flows to be to/from, how many they expect at the start and what they will want to work up to based on the facilties capacity and its worked from there.
 

zwk500

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One thing which would help develop freight traffic would be if a way could be found to reduce access charges for through freight trains using the Channel Tunnel. Even with Brexit there must be a considerable amount of international traffic which could be attracted to rail if only it wasn't so much cheaper to send it by lorry.
The big issue with freight through the channel tunnel is loading gauge. HS1 is obviously fine, but that drains capacity. The classic routes that were cleared for traffic in the 90s were only done to W8 or W9, and can't take the Supermarket's preferred Swapbodies at the moment.
I won't believe in a freight boom until the FOC's are investing heavily in drivers and locos. Unless GBRf are the only FOC able to win new contracts (which to be honest they are getting the lions share right now), the other FOC's don't seem to be growing.
It's often not easy to tell when contracts are additional traffic, or just FOCs pinching flows from each other.
Does anyone have a graph of say the last 20 years of rail freight pickup?
The ORR do for the last 10 years: https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/statistics/usage/freight-rail-usage-and-performance/
 

richieb1971

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The ORR chart is very interesting. It doesn't show much movement, but "Other" seems to have quite an increase. I have to assume cement/aggregrates/spoil accounts for most of that.
 

zwk500

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The ORR chart is very interesting. It doesn't show much movement, but "Other" seems to have quite an increase. I have to assume cement/aggregrates/spoil accounts for most of that.
Cement and aggregates will come under construction, 'other' will include things like Cars and possibly Biomass.
 

coppercapped

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One thing which would help develop freight traffic would be if a way could be found to reduce access charges for through freight trains using the Channel Tunnel. Even with Brexit there must be a considerable amount of international traffic which could be attracted to rail if only it wasn't so much cheaper to send it by lorry.
I suggest that the cost of crossing the channel makes up only a small part in the decision of how to deliver one's goods.

Eurostat publishes a range of statistical data - the portal may be found here: https://data.europa.eu/en These data show that the modal split for freight in the Member States of the EU is 75% for road, 15% for rail and 10% by sea, river or canal.

As a rule of thumb, one can say that goods produced and consumed within the continental land mass are mostly shipped by HGV almost regardless of distance. Miele, Bosch or Siemens or any other company producing, for example, household equipment in Germany for sale in the UK or Turkey will not bother to see whether it could be shipped to the UK by rail if their entire distribution system is designed around 40 tonne artics even if it saved a few Euros for the Channel crossing.

Another limitation is that if conventional UIC-dimensioned wagons were to be used through the Channel Tunnel they could not get past Ripple Lane. There would be more delay and cost involved if specialised UK-gauge wagons had to be supplied (probably empty) to the originating point — so easier, quicker and cheaper just to call a haulage company.

I'm as much in favour as anyone else of the railways carrying as much freight as possible - but these realities have to be faced and answered for anything to change.
 

Meerkat

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Isn’t SNCF and it’s unions are big issue for cross continent and channel freight?
 

Meerkat

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In what way?
I am sure I read that they made it very inconvenient to get decent speed paths through France, thats why more fresh stuff didnt make the long journey from Spain by rail??
And weren’t the unions trying to hold back the freight companies by insisting they gave staff same terms as SNCF’s staff?
 

zwk500

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I am sure I read that they made it very inconvenient to get decent speed paths through France, thats why more fresh stuff didnt make the long journey from Spain by rail??
And weren’t the unions trying to hold back the freight companies by insisting they gave staff same terms as SNCF’s staff?
I'm fairly sure that's going to be no more annoying than the fact that the preferred swapbodies don't fit on the UK classic network, requiring 80mph paths on HS1 to get to Ripple Lane.
 

markymark2000

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Freight has potential to expand I think but no one wants to invest. Everyone wants someone else to put the money in so that they reap the benefits and it's a lot of chicken and egg. FOCs won't invest in electric or bimodes until there is enough potential for them to be used which means more electrification but why would NR invest in electrification when there are so many diesels out there and FOC don't invest in electric traction, even when there is a substantial distance running under wires.

FOCs seem to not want to invest in their own terminals either, again wanting everyone else to build them and they just run the services. It's very much like aviation. Complain there isn't the infrastructure but won't put a penny in to get the infrastructure. Always wanting someone elses money to put in and they just take the profit from the operations.


In my eyes, the issue is, we need more innovation in the freight sector. FOCs need to stop trying to rinse existing customers and start trying to encourage new customers. Old customers are great but they already know what the railways can do and will likely try to use them more. The harder challenge is getting new companies onto rail and then keeping them. It doesn't match fully but the message behind it could be interpreted into a rail freight way. Easyjet used to run those 'first time flyer' flights basically to show how good flying is and it maybe wasn't mega profitable for them but the idea was getting people comfortable with travelling by plane showing them how everything works and what the experience is, then they hopefully become more regular customers. As I say, it is planes but the message which can be taken away from it is why aren't more trials done at the FOCs expense to try and encourage new customers onto rail or old customers back. A one off cost could turn into a very busy, regular flow.
In addition to flows, we need innovation with waggons. So many empty waggons going about the network. We need to find safe ways to use a certain waggon type for more uses. I know gauge is an issue in some places but purely hypothetical here, trains could go like HGVs. A flat waggon with container pins but also spaces for log/timber side posts or space to hold track. I believe GBRF have done something like this for Network Rail but we need something like that for regular use then a single train can have two way flows. More money per train.

I feel that the industry is still stuck in the old times a bit. That waggon only carries this one certain thing and only does this one trip and then returns back empty. Rely on old customers loyalty and not encouraging new customers. Oh hang on, sounds very much like many of the retail stores which are going under. Little innovation to encourage new customers.


In short, Rail freight has huge potential. FOCs just need to stop waiting for everyone else to fund their ventures and start taking commercial risks. Paths can probably be found in a lot of cases but why would Network Rail or Central Govt invest in improving capacity in an area which has few trains or why should they invest in new infrastructure because there is a lack of paths simply because FOCs refuse to invest in electric trains which would basically free up the capacity which the FOCs want (WCML is an example of this).
 

zwk500

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Freight has potential to expand I think but no one wants to invest. Everyone wants someone else to put the money in so that they reap the benefits and it's a lot of chicken and egg. FOCs won't invest in electric or bimodes until there is enough potential for them to be used which means more electrification but why would NR invest in electrification when there are so many diesels out there and FOC don't invest in electric traction, even when there is a substantial distance running under wires.

FOCs seem to not want to invest in their own terminals either, again wanting everyone else to build them and they just run the services. It's very much like aviation. Complain there isn't the infrastructure but won't put a penny in to get the infrastructure. Always wanting someone elses money to put in and they just take the profit from the operations.
This is all true, although it's unfair to say FOCs aren't spending a single penny. The reality is it's incredibly disruptive and expensive to electrify and gauge clear, and difficult to identify projects that would give a quick enough return for investment to be viable for a private company. Spending money smartly is the key for FOCs. What they should be focusing on at the moment is some form of solution for overhead electrification at top-loading terminals. That would make the case for electric freight much clearer. This is happening with things like the 88, battery shunter and 93.
In my eyes, the issue is, we need more innovation in the freight sector. FOCs need to stop trying to rinse existing customers and start trying to encourage new customers. Old customers are great but they already know what the railways can do and will likely try to use them more. The harder challenge is getting new companies onto rail and then keeping them. It doesn't match fully but the message behind it could be interpreted into a rail freight way. Easyjet used to run those 'first time flyer' flights basically to show how good flying is and it maybe wasn't mega profitable for them but the idea was getting people comfortable with travelling by plane showing them how everything works and what the experience is, then they hopefully become more regular customers. As I say, it is planes but the message which can be taken away from it is why aren't more trials done at the FOCs expense to try and encourage new customers onto rail or old customers back. A one off cost could turn into a very busy, regular flow.
The issue with this is the railway has a history of running a trial service and then it gets delayed for 2 weeks out of the 6 so the customer isn't particularly impressed. Or it's only financially viable with a whacking great grant.
In addition to flows, we need innovation with waggons. So many empty waggons going about the network. We need to find safe ways to use a certain waggon type for more uses. I know gauge is an issue in some places but purely hypothetical here, trains could go like HGVs. A flat waggon with container pins but also spaces for log/timber side posts or space to hold track. I believe GBRF have done something like this for Network Rail but we need something like that for regular use then a single train can have two way flows. More money per train.

I feel that the industry is still stuck in the old times a bit. That waggon only carries this one certain thing and only does this one trip and then returns back empty. Rely on old customers loyalty and not encouraging new customers. Oh hang on, sounds very much like many of the retail stores which are going under. Little innovation to encourage new customers.
The fundamental issue with this is that terminals aren't very close to each other to facilitate this kind of traffic. Running an out-and back operation may well be more efficient for the operator than running 2 separate flows on a combined diagram cycle. Also 75mph container wagons may not be fit for conversion to load timber on a regular basis and you've got to carry a rather large amount of steel around with you for more than half the cycle.
In short, Rail freight has huge potential. FOCs just need to stop waiting for everyone else to fund their ventures and start taking commercial risks. Paths can probably be found in a lot of cases but why would Network Rail or Central Govt invest in improving capacity in an area which has few trains or why should they invest in new infrastructure because there is a lack of paths simply because FOCs refuse to invest in electric trains which would basically free up the capacity which the FOCs want (WCML is an example of this).
It's very easy to tell other companies to take financial risks, have you tried suggesting that to a shareholder of GBRf or Freightliner? They're private companies, every decision is a risk, but a calculated one.
 

JKF

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HS2 construction is generating new freight flows and will do for a number of years, local to me this has led to revival of the Portbury and Tytherington lines, and new flow from Bristol Freightliner terminal which is brought in by road from a quarry at Flax Bourton.

There is also a proposed container dock at Avonmouth to handle large vessels, which will be able to utilise the line through Henbury which was doubled for imported coal traffic a couple of decades ago. This might be displaced traffic from other ports rather than ‘new’ volume.
 

richieb1971

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Isn't GBRf raking it in the market at the moment? Hence all the new EU locos coming to the UK and the 69's?

There must be some new flows.
 

billio

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Is there an issue of how much 'slack' there is in the infrastructure ? Has the rail network has been 'tuned' down to a capacity that just meets current requirements in order to minimise the cost of maintenance ? And with a cynical hat on my head, to generate new expensive projects when increased capacity is really needed.
Therefore developing new freight flows is constrained by network capacity or significant investment.
 

zwk500

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Is there an issue of how much 'slack' there is in the infrastructure ? Has the rail network has been 'tuned' down to a capacity that just meets current requirements in order to minimise the cost of maintenance ? And with a cynical hat on my head, to generate new expensive projects when increased capacity is really needed.
Therefore developing new freight flows is constrained by network capacity or significant investment.
No, it's the other way round. Services have been boosted to pretty much the maximum level that can be supported by the network - in critical areas. It means that the easy areas to upgrade don't need it, but anywhere needed to upgrade costs an absolute fortune. Service rationalisation and capacity optimisation helps, but equally a regular hourly timetable often doesn't work very well with freight trains that can be wildly variable in speed, tonnage and traction.
 

markymark2000

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This is all true, although it's unfair to say FOCs aren't spending a single penny. The reality is it's incredibly disruptive and expensive to electrify and gauge clear, and difficult to identify projects that would give a quick enough return for investment to be viable for a private company. Spending money smartly is the key for FOCs. What they should be focusing on at the moment is some form of solution for overhead electrification at top-loading terminals. That would make the case for electric freight much clearer. This is happening with things like the 88, battery shunter and 93.
Well no, they are spending a small bit but rarely on the big infrastructure projects which they are all campaigning for. Minimal investment it seems into terminals as well I would say and things that would save them a lot of money, they won't invest in. Just as an example. Kronospan Chirk should have points to let the train cross over which would save over an hour each trip because the train won't be circling around Shrewsbury and the West Midlands to get back to Carlisle. Penyfordd is another one. No points to get south to Wrexham nor points from Wrexham into the sidings so instead, the train blocks the main line to shunt into the sidings and then spends over an hour hour going up to Dee Marsh to turn around to head back south. An hour saved on a journey is a lot of money saved plus makes customer happier so there is more potential to generate more usage because the customer is happier and you are delivering products quicker. Investment in some areas bring benefits which save money and maybe make more money. Even if FOCs don't put the full money in and just contribute somewhat towards it, projects would get done a damn site quicker than leaving it up to politicians not just because less money is needed but also because it proves a business case and it makes the investment safer for the government because a private company is putting in money who will want to make use and get their money back.
I digress, the point being, investing can get a decent return. Not always quick but a decent return.
As you suggest things like battery shunters, 93s and 88 are good investments and can save time but the 88s haven't had anything past the 10 which DRS have. 93s are going to Rail Ops Group who don't operate freight trains. Battery shunters I am unsure of. The main FOCs are not investing in electric really at all. Easier to stick to the 66s and winge at everyone else for not subsidising their ventures than it is to invest.

The issue with this is the railway has a history of running a trial service and then it gets delayed for 2 weeks out of the 6 so the customer isn't particularly impressed. Or it's only financially viable with a whacking great grant.
Grants are available though, not sure if they are for trials or regular flows but there are grants out there. It would help if the FOCs had more waggons which could carry multiple products and intermodal swapbody curtainsider container things as then it's cheaper to do trials for more variety of products. Delays, obviously can't always be helped but maybe more pressure needs to be put onto making these trials work. I guess it's a difficult one as you can't prioritise trial trains but at the same time, impress a company, they will come back to you.

The fundamental issue with this is that terminals aren't very close to each other to facilitate this kind of traffic. Running an out-and back operation may well be more efficient for the operator than running 2 separate flows on a combined diagram cycle. Also 75mph container wagons may not be fit for conversion to load timber on a regular basis and you've got to carry a rather large amount of steel around with you for more than half the cycle.
I appreciate that and it was just a single example but there will be many more examples where a type of waggon could maybe hold different products. I do believe that things are possible to do sometimes but they are just reluctant to do it. If the more flat van transporters which Ford use could also hold a 20ft container on them for example, the train could send cars north to Mossend and 20ft containers back. No, not a lot being carried but it created revenue on a back flow and means more space for containers on trains without using additional waggons, trains or resources.

It's very easy to tell other companies to take financial risks, have you tried suggesting that to a shareholder of GBRf or Freightliner? They're private companies, every decision is a risk, but a calculated one.
Oh, I know that but if no one takes a risk, no one makes any money. GBRF are taking financial risks on some of their new trains to be fair and so that is good but why no financial risks on a potential flow. Short term loss, long term gain. I wonder if the shareholders of the FOCs are old school, keep earning at 100% levels rather than dropping to 95% for a few weeks with the chance of going up to 105%. Risking money for longer term gain is exactly how the most popular companies currently operate. No one ever succeeds by sitting back, not investing and not trying to encourage new customers. It's being seen in all sectors currently.


Why would any company look to adapt their supply chain around rail when rail freight is seemingly stuck in the 1990s plodding around diesel trains all day and they want full loads most days. Unless you have a full train to give a FOC, they couldn't care less and why would any company risk a full supply chain collapse moving to rail. Until rail starts taking more risks and starts trying to take on smaller loads (with the view of expanding that in time), the percentage of rail vs road will remain dismally low.
 

Dr Hoo

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The recent National Audit Office report "A financial overview of the rail system in England" showed FOC earnings of £768m in 2019-20, government funding of £13m, a total of £781m. Expenditure was £778m, so total net profits across all FOCs were basically only £3m.

The FOCs simply don't have the cash to invest, especially in other people's infrastructure (Network Rail, ports, distribution parks and so on).
 

markymark2000

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The recent National Audit Office report "A financial overview of the rail system in England" showed FOC earnings of £768m in 2019-20, government funding of £13m, a total of £781m. Expenditure was £778m, so total net profits across all FOCs were basically only £3m.

The FOCs simply don't have the cash to invest, especially in other people's infrastructure (Network Rail, ports, distribution parks and so on).
How much money is sent away though to reduce the profits in the UK and if not, what on earth are the FOCs spending their money on? Surely they aren't actually this unprofitable.
 

Bald Rick

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How much money is sent away though to reduce the profits in the UK and if not, what on earth are the FOCs spending their money on? Surely they aren't actually this unprofitable.

Some are more profitable, some make losses.

They spend their money on staff, fuel, parts, business development, suppliers (including track access charges), and of course servicing and paying back their debts. Some of which are large.
 

ac6000cw

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Surely they aren't actually this unprofitable
These are the latest accounts that GBRf filed with Companies House (for financial year end 31st Dec 2019) - https://find-and-update.company-inf...g0OWFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0

Basically, their revenue was £197.788 million and their 'cost of sales' was £194.130 million, so a gross profit of £3.658 million i.e. a gross profit margin of under 2% (as far as I can tell from reading the accounts - I'm not an accountant!).

Freight transport is a very competitive and hence low margin business...
 
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