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What new routes could be opened up due to the introduction of East West rail, and could open axis operators be involved?

VItraveller

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Apologies if this has been discussed before, I had a look on the forum but couldn’t find anything.
With the rail track now, having been laid for the Oxford to Bletchley portion of East West rail, the service that will connect Cambridge, Bedford, Milton Keynes andd Oxford, I was wondering what Journey opportunities this opens up and whether the cancellation of the Manchester leg of HS2 will affect these possibilities.
And is there a possibility for open access operators to be involved, although none of the roots directly link to London, Milton Keynes has a linked to euston, and Oxford has links to marlybone and Paddington and Cambridge to Kings Cross, although that might be a bit of a stretch.
How about a direct service from Cardiff to London Marlebone, calling at Bristol, Temple Meads, Swindon, Reading and Oxford, to compete with GWR.
Well a man can dream.
 
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Fermiboson

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Firstly the Cambridge leg is still very much hanging in the air, with I believe some consultation difficulties having been run into in Bedford over the choice of route. It won’t be delivered anytime soon.

As to EWR phase 1, my understanding is that there will be no provision for OAOs at the moment. It’s not a particularly useful OAO route anyways, given that basically all stations within the catchment area have direct services to London. OAOs also can’t be abstractive, and you’d be hard pressed to find a stopping pattern in either the eastern Cotswolds or on the WMCL that isn’t abstractive from Chiltern, WM/Avanti or GWR. Also, there’s no east facing curve at Bicester Jct.

There are services that could potentially be useful operated under a normal franchise, once (if) the full length of EWR opens. Perhaps Milton Keynes/Bedford to Bristol? (Cambridge already has XC via B’ham which will likely be faster without upgrades to the Marston Vale track.) Bedford to Southampton may also be an idea, although it would overlap so much with XC for most of its working that I’m not sure if the capacity or demand exists for such a service, and I’m also not sure if it’s faster via London. Future development in the Midlands may justify more of such services. But ultimately, the greatest use of the Varsity line during WWII was as a London avoiding line, as London track was bombed into pieces; and that’s kind of its main purpose, which runs directly contrary to the idea that OAOs have to serve London.
 
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JonathanH

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Apologies if this has been discussed before, I had a look on the forum but couldn’t find anything.
There is some discussion in the past, in particular in this thread https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/east-west-rail-ewr-alternative-options-and-speculation.215169/ and this one https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...l-it-happen-and-how-should-it-be-done.253073/

Essentially the main point is that EWR is seen as something which should be self contained in the first instance. A bit like passengers travelling from Bristol to Gatwick change at Reading rather than there being an attempt to justify Bristol to Brighton services via Reading and Guildford just because technically they could run. There is no specific reason why something like a Bristol or Cardiff to Norwich service should run just because there is a through route.

This is a good summary of that:
My understanding was that it's primary purpose for passengers was to enhance connectivity into Oxford (and eventually Cambridge) from areas planned for substantial housing development. And to relieve a chronically overloaded section of the road network. It's a regional line, somewhat similar to Reading-Redhill (although a bit higher standard). I may be very wrong on this, but it wasn't meant to become another higher-speed main line carrying traffic from one side of the country to the other.

whether the cancellation of the Manchester leg of HS2 will affect these possibilities
I don't think it affects anything on EWR, given the cancelled parts of HS2 affect very different passenger flows.
 

Magdalia

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There is already a discussion about extensions beyond Oxford which is here.


There is supposed to be a formal consultation on Bedford-Cambridge later this year.
 

mangyiscute

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How about a direct service from Cardiff to London Marlebone, calling at Bristol, Temple Meads, Swindon, Reading and Oxford, to compete with GWR.
I'm struggling to understand who would use this service to travel more than one stop, since it would take longer than other options in pretty much every journey of over 2 stops.
 

swt_passenger

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Apologies if this has been discussed before, I had a look on the forum but couldn’t find anything.
With the rail track now, having been laid for the Oxford to Bletchley portion of East West rail, the service that will connect Cambridge, Bedford, Milton Keynes andd Oxford, I was wondering what Journey opportunities this opens up and whether the cancellation of the Manchester leg of HS2 will affect these possibilities.
Expected service patterns have been discussed many times in the forum, but are easy to find on EWR or NR website. Extensions across Oxford are regularly discussed but I wouldn’t expect anything in the short term, their initial plan is to get Oxford to Milton Keynes and Bletchley then to Bedford working reliably.

The NR description of services “connection stages” is here:

And is there a possibility for open access operators to be involved, although none of the roots directly link to London, Milton Keynes has a linked to euston, and Oxford has links to marlybone and Paddington and Cambridge to Kings Cross, although that might be a bit of a stretch.
There is no capacity designed in for open access. The infrastructure and signalling is designed for a specific EWR service pattern and quite limited freight. IMHO open access will never work unless it’s to/from London.
How about a direct service from Cardiff to London Marlebone, calling at Bristol, Temple Meads, Swindon, Reading and Oxford, to compete with GWR.
Well a man can dream.
That doesn’t need the recently completed section of EWR, in the unlikely event of it ever being needed it could already be done today, that’s if you ignore the lack of platform capacity at Marylebone.

But Swindon-Reading-Oxford is not even the direct route, it requires doubling back between Didcot and Reading. Have you checked a map?
 

SynthD

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Does the abstraction test include a change of trains from one brand? Eg Reading to Leicester via Bletchley competes with Crosscountry’s Southampton to Derby and Birmingham to Stansted.
 

swt_passenger

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Does the abstraction test include a change of trains from one brand? Eg Reading to Leicester via Bletchley competes with Crosscountry’s Southampton to Derby and Birmingham to Stansted.
I’d say all legs should be tested for abstraction from flows using the same basic route, so Reading to Oxford against GWR, and Oxford to Bletchley or Bedford against EWR, but I suspect your “via Derby” example is too extreme, I doubt it’s a valid route between Reading and Leicester anyway. (I haven’t checked journey planners but it’s a long way north to come south again…)
 

Nottingham59

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Apologies if this has been discussed before, I had a look on the forum but couldn’t find anything.
With the rail track now, having been laid for the Oxford to Bletchley portion of East West rail, the service that will connect Cambridge, Bedford, Milton Keynes andd Oxford, I was wondering what Journey opportunities this opens up and whether the cancellation of the Manchester leg of HS2 will affect these possibilities.
And is there a possibility for open access operators to be involved, although none of the roots directly link to London, Milton Keynes has a linked to euston, and Oxford has links to marlybone and Paddington and Cambridge to Kings Cross, although that might be a bit of a stretch.
How about a direct service from Cardiff to London Marlebone, calling at Bristol, Temple Meads, Swindon, Reading and Oxford, to compete with GWR.
Well a man can dream.
This is a bit of a brain dump, addressing each section of EWR in turn

Oxford-Bletchley
The opening of phase 1 of HS2 will open up possibilities for EWR route extensions and interchange opportunities. With the WCML losing nearly all its long-distance traffic, the stopping pattern on the fast lines will change radically. There will be fewer trains on the fasts, but they will stop more often. I think Bletchley should get at least 4tph on the fasts and 2tph on the slows, making interchange there from EWR much more practical.

There will also be capacity for the Oxford - Milton Keynes trains to extend to Northampton, but I don't see they would go any further up the WCML than that. Oxford-Coventry is served by direct trains already, and Oxford-Nuneaton-Leicester should become practical after HS2 releases capacity for crossing moves at Coventry.

Aylesbury to MKC should work too, but this needs investment at Calvert. Is the demand there to justify this? If so, that's the first EWR extension that should be considered.

Bletchley-Bedford
They seem to have abandoned plans to upgrade the Marston Vale section of EWR. Without that investment, I don't see how EWR can carry long distance services beyond Bedford / Cambridge. And Oxford-Cambridge traffic will be forever hobbled by an inadequate Marston Vale section.

If there is scope for new infrastructure, then after upgrading the Marston Vale the one service extension that I think would work would be Oxford-Bedford-Kettering-Peterborough. If there is enough demand between Bedford and East Anglia to justify building a whole new railway between Beford and Cambridge, then there must be enough demand to build a short South to East chord at Manton Junction to enable direct services from Bedford to Peterborough. (And conversely, if there is not that demand, then it would be better not to build East-West at all, and just build a light rail network to allow Cambridge to grow.)

Bedford-Cambridge
If Bedford - Cambridge gets built, its main justification is as a commuter railway between dormitory towns like Cambourne and Tempsford to the booming biotechnology clusters around Cambridge. That requires 4tph service and frequent stops, which is not really compatible with long-distance extensions. I'd expect that Cambridge to Bristol is always likely to be faster via London than via Bedford.

Maybe there would be scope to extend EWR services through the centre of Cambridge out to Newmarket or Ely, to enable housing development in places like Fulbourn and Dullingham, but I don't see the scope to extend long-distance services from Oxford or beyond to places like Norwich or Ipswich.

To the West, there might be scope to extend EWR services to Didcot, for better connections, but going beyond that to Reading or Swindon would just eat capacity on the GWML.

Open Access
I don't see any scope at all for Open Access operators on EWR. Where's the demand going to come from? Sorry.
 

Magdalia

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If there is enough demand between Bedford and East Anglia to justify building a whole new railway between Beford and Cambridge
The demand is to get to Cambridge, not anywhere else in East Anglia.
then there must be enough demand to build a short South to East chord at Manton Junction to enable direct services from Bedford to Peterborough
Peterborough does not have one of the top 10 Universities in the world. If there is sufficient demand for a Bedford-Peterborough service, then interchange between EWR and the ECML at Tempsford or St Neots is the logical way to meet it. Going via Manton is at least 20 miles further than via St Neots.
 

Nottingham59

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The demand is to get to Cambridge, not anywhere else in East Anglia.
So no scope for EWR extensions beyond Cambridge.

So how big is that demand? How many buses an hour run on the A428 / A421 from Bedford to Csmbridge?
Peterborough does not have one of the top 10 Universities in the world. If there is sufficient demand for a Bedford-Peterborough service, then interchange between EWR and the ECML at Tempsford or St Neots is the logical way to meet it. Going via Manton is at least 20 miles further than via St Neots.
Sure. And around £5000million less expensive.
 

Magdalia

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How many buses an hour run on the A428 / A421 from Bedford to Csmbridge?
East West Rail is about delivering the infrastructure that facilitates economic growth, it is not about modal shift for existing traffic. The number of buses currently running between Bedford and Cambridge is irrelevant to the case for East West Rail.

And around £5000million less expensive.
But nowhere near as expensive as the £billions of tax revenue lost, spread over decades, if economic growth in Cambridge is strangled by lack of infrastructure.
 

Nottingham59

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East West Rail is about delivering the infrastructure that facilitates economic growth, it is not about modal shift for existing traffic. The number of buses currently running between Bedford and Cambridge is irrelevant to the case for East West Rail.
If existing traffic is not relevant, there is no reason to go to Bedford. Build the transport infrastructure that maximises economic growth. Without the Oxford Cambridge Arc now downgraded, EWR won't do that.

But nowhere near as expensive as the £billions of tax revenue lost, spread over decades, if economic growth in Cambridge is strangled by lack of infrastructure.
So build infrastructure in and near Cambridge. A light rail network centred on Cambridge and allowing the development of 1-2M homes within 10 miles of the city would do far more to facilitate economic growth than would a new rail line all the way to Bedford. A good target would be a 24tph tram-train service running along a N-S spine from Shelford to Waterbeach, with four 6tph light rail spurs to massive new housing developments at each end.

EDIT: In particular, you woud create far more economic growth in Cambridge by building a 4 or 6-track railway through the middle of Cambridge than by building a 6-track railway through the middle of Bedford.
 
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The Planner

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This is a bit of a brain dump, addressing each section of EWR in turn

Oxford-Bletchley
The opening of phase 1 of HS2 will open up possibilities for EWR route extensions and interchange opportunities. With the WCML losing nearly all its long-distance traffic, the stopping pattern on the fast lines will change radically. There will be fewer trains on the fasts, but they will stop more often. I think Bletchley should get at least 4tph on the fasts and 2tph on the slows, making interchange there from EWR much more practical.
Unlikely that Bletchley gets that many on the fasts. There will be 2tph to MK so the connections arent as vital.
There will also be capacity for the Oxford - Milton Keynes trains to extend to Northampton, but I don't see they would go any further up the WCML than that. Oxford-Coventry is served by direct trains already, and Oxford-Nuneaton-Leicester should become practical after HS2 releases capacity for crossing moves at Coventry.
That isnt certain at all, you can't do that now and the slows won't become any quieter. As for Oxford Leicester, Coventry will still be a sticking point and Nuneaton is an unfunded elephant in the room.
Aylesbury to MKC should work too, but this needs investment at Calvert. Is the demand there to justify this? If so, that's the first EWR extension that should be considered.
Doesnt need any investment. The rebuilt line will do the 1tph envisaged.
Bletchley-Bedford
They seem to have abandoned plans to upgrade the Marston Vale section of EWR. Without that investment, I don't see how EWR can carry long distance services beyond Bedford / Cambridge. And Oxford-Cambridge traffic will be forever hobbled by an inadequate Marston Vale section.
Some removal of LCs are still planned.
 

Nottingham59

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Unlikely that Bletchley gets that many on the fasts. There will be 2tph to MK so the connections arent as vital.
Maybe. Without the long distance traffic, I'd expect most of the trains on the WCML fast lines to call at principal stations, which I'd hope would include Bletchley after EWR opens.

Bletchley currently gets 4tph on the slows (2 slow, 2 fast south of Ledburn Jct). I'd expect 6tph or more to call after HS2. I'd hope 4 of those to be on the fast lines, but it doesn't really matter which platform they use. Depends if they have to get out of the way of long-distance services calling at MKC only - my guess is no more than 2tph of those.

That isnt certain at all, you can't do that now and the slows won't become any quieter.
I guess you're right. Let's hope WCML freight traffic grows to displace the passenger flows currently carried on the slows, which I think will transfer to limited stop services the fasts.

As for Oxford Leicester, Coventry will still be a sticking point and Nuneaton is an unfunded elephant in the room.
How many WCML trains will go through Coventry after HS2 opens? And Nuneaton will be empty compared to now: I can't see the passenger volumes being there to justify more than 1tph fast and 1tph slow on the Trent Valley. Where are the passengers going to come from?

Doesnt need any investment. The rebuilt line will do the 1tph envisaged.
The latest HS2 bulleting about Calvert said "To the south, around 685,000 cubic metres of material is being excavated to create the Calvert cutting which will be up to 9.7m deep and wide enough to potentially allow extra local railway lines to be added alongside the HS2 main line at a later date to link Aylesbury with EWR.

I take that "potentially" (my bold) to as a weasel word to mean that it is not funded. Perhaps I'm being too cynical.

Some removal of LCs are still planned.
Good. What capacity will that enable?
 

The Planner

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How many WCML trains will go through Coventry after HS2 opens? And Nuneaton will be empty compared to now: I can't see the passenger volumes being there to justify more than 1tph fast and 1tph slow on the Trent Valley. Where are the passengers going to come from?
How are you getting across Nuneaton? I wouldnf be surprised if there are still 4tph through Cov, 2 fast and 2 via Northampton
The latest HS2 bulleting about Calvert said "To the south, around 685,000 cubic metres of material is being excavated to create the Calvert cutting which will be up to 9.7m deep and wide enough to potentially allow extra local railway lines to be added alongside the HS2 main line at a later date to link Aylesbury with EWR.

I take that "potentially" (my bold) to as a weasel word to mean that it is not funded. Perhaps I'm being too cynical.
Its funded, HS2 has to rebuild the part its removed and the line will reopen.
Good. What capacity will that enable?
Nothing, but you can get 2tph along there without any hassle now.
 
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William3000

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Firstly the Cambridge leg is still very much hanging in the air, with I believe some consultation difficulties having been run into in Bedford over the choice of route. It won’t be delivered anytime soon.

As to EWR phase 1, my understanding is that there will be no provision for OAOs at the moment. It’s not a particularly useful OAO route anyways, given that basically all stations within the catchment area have direct services to London. OAOs also can’t be abstractive, and you’d be hard pressed to find a stopping pattern in either the eastern Cotswolds or on the WMCL that isn’t abstractive from Chiltern, WM/Avanti or GWR. Also, there’s no east facing curve at Bicester Jct.

There are services that could potentially be useful operated under a normal franchise, once (if) the full length of EWR opens. Perhaps Milton Keynes/Bedford to Bristol? (Cambridge already has XC via B’ham which will likely be faster without upgrades to the Marston Vale track.) Bedford to Southampton may also be an idea, although it would overlap so much with XC for most of its working that I’m not sure if the capacity or demand exists for such a service, and I’m also not sure if it’s faster via London. Future development in the Midlands may justify more of such services. But ultimately, the greatest use of the Varsity line during WWII was as a London avoiding line, as London track was bombed into pieces; and that’s kind of its main purpose, which runs directly contrary to the idea that OAOs have to serve London.
I’ve heard that consideration is being given to a north to east chord and half hourly Birmingham New Street to Cambridge (Central) services calling at Birmingham International, Coventry, Rugby, Northampton, Milton Keynes Central, Ridgmont, Bedford St John’s, Bedford (Midland) Tempsford, Cambridge South, and Cambridge (Central). I would have thought the journey time could be less than the current route via Leicester which takes 2hrs 38 mins. I suspect by EWR it could be reduced to 2hrs 10
 

bspahh

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I’ve heard that consideration is being given to a north to east chord and half hourly Birmingham New Street to Cambridge (Central) services calling at Birmingham International, Coventry, Rugby, Northampton, Milton Keynes Central, Ridgmont, Bedford St John’s, Bedford (Midland) Tempsford, Cambridge South, and Cambridge (Central). I would have thought the journey time could be less than the current route via Leicester which takes 2hrs 38 mins. I suspect by EWR it could be reduced to 2hrs 10
Who is considering this?
 

Bletchleyite

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I’ve heard that consideration is being given to a north to east chord and half hourly Birmingham New Street to Cambridge (Central) services calling at Birmingham International, Coventry, Rugby, Northampton, Milton Keynes Central, Ridgmont, Bedford St John’s, Bedford (Midland) Tempsford, Cambridge South, and Cambridge (Central). I would have thought the journey time could be less than the current route via Leicester which takes 2hrs 38 mins. I suspect by EWR it could be reduced to 2hrs 10

I'm very much in favour of such a chord, but more because extending Marston Vale services back to MKC and building significant housing developments around the stations would be a much more "eco" way of expanding Milton Keynes than building estates that would be primarily accessed by car, as well as massively improving the economics of the line. A through MKC-Cambridge service would also be of value.

You could operate that service with a reverse though.
 

nw1

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Divert Bournemouth-Manchester services that way for improved journey times, using bi-mode stock. Furthermore, when HS2 opens, the WCML will have plenty of spare paths, presumably, to accommodate such services.

So East West Rail to Milton Keynes and then straight up the WCML and Trent Valley to Manchester. Limited stop e.g. fast MKC to Stoke.

Plus new Bournemouth-Scotland services (maybe just 1 or 2 a day) via the same route.

Service pattern once every 2 hours, with Bournemouth-Birmingham down to a 2-hourly "shuttle" with double Voyagers - i.e. still 1tph from Bournemouth apart, perhaps, from the additional Scotland service(s) which would be on top of the base pattern. On top of that there would still be 3 other Reading-Birmingham services every 2 hours via the traditional route, of course, maintaining (restoring?) the half-hourly frequency on that section.

Then I'd also introduce a 2-hourly Brighton-Manchester via the WLL also using bi-modes, making it hourly MKC-Manchester: but that isn't EWR so I'd best stop there.
 
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The Planner

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Divert Bournemouth-Manchester services that way for improved journey times, using bi-mode stock. Furthermore, when HS2 opens, the WCML will have plenty of spare paths, presumably, to accommodate such services.
Not now Phase 2A isn't happening. The XC would never be diverted anyway as it would miss Birmingham and the fact its another train across Oxford North and on the slows at Bletchley.
So East West Rail to Milton Keynes and then straight up the WCML and Trent Valley to Manchester. Limited stop e.g. fast MKC to Stoke.

Plus new Bournemouth-Scotland services (maybe just 1 or 2 a day) via the same route.

Service pattern once every 2 hours, with Bournemouth-Birmingham down to a 2-hourly "shuttle" with double Voyagers - i.e. still 1tph from Bournemouth apart, perhaps, from the additional Scotland service(s) which would be on top of the base pattern. On top of that there would still be 3 other Reading-Birmingham services every 2 hours via the traditional route, of course, maintaining (restoring?) the half-hourly frequency on that section.

Then I'd also introduce a 2-hourly Brighton-Manchester via the WLL also using bi-modes, making it hourly MKC-Manchester: but that isn't EWR so I'd best stop there.
BRIGHTON BINGO!
 

nw1

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BRIGHTON BINGO!

Haha..... ;)

But think about it, a service which links Brighton, Gatwick, Croydon, Clapham Junction, Watford, Milton Keynes, Stoke and Manchester on a regular basis would potentially see a lot of passengers, would it not? I don't think it's such a silly idea - it might not work but I don't think it should be dismissed out of hand without an argument to say why!

It's not just Brighton, it's Gatwick, Croydon, and Clapham Junction (and thus a large swathe of South London and Surrey, by connection) too.
 
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JonathanH

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But think about it, a service which links Brighton, Gatwick, Croydon, Clapham Junction, Watford, Milton Keynes, Stoke and Manchester on a regular basis would potentially see a lot of passengers, would it not?
Which trains to Euston and Victoria / London Bridge would be removed to create space for such a through service?
 

The Planner

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Haha..... ;)

But think about it, a service which links Brighton, Gatwick, Croydon, Clapham Junction, Watford, Milton Keynes, Stoke and Manchester on a regular basis would potentially see a lot of passengers, would it not? I don't think it's such a silly idea - it might not work but I don't think it should be dismissed out of hand without an argument to say why!

It's not just Brighton, it's Gatwick, Croydon, and Clapham Junction (and thus a large swathe of South London and Surrey, by connection) too.
Ask why it isn't being done now? I doubt you would get the extra paths on the BML and across West London anyway. I also doubt there is demand for it.
 

JonathanH

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I don't think it's such a silly idea - it might not work but I don't think it should be dismissed out of hand without an argument to say why!
There is already a frequent service with easy connections at St Pancras and Euston which serves passengers very well. The point you have to address with EWR and any other route is why the tail wags the dog on through journeys. For any passenger who wants to get from Bristol to Norwich via EWR, or Brighton to Manchester via the West London Line, there is a passenger who wants to get from Cardiff to Ipswich or Tonbridge to Liverpool, who isn't getting a through service. Railways work best with concentrated flows of passengers.
 

nw1

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Ask why it isn't being done now? I doubt you would get the extra paths on the BML and across West London anyway. I also doubt there is demand for it.

Fine, I'm open to reasonable explanations of why it cannot be done.

Of course the key difference is the WCML will have more paths in future.
 

JonathanH

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Of course the key difference is the WCML will have more paths in future.
Not north of Hansacre though, and part of what is hoped for the South WCML is more services to Euston (eg faster from Northampton) rather than through trains from EWR.
 

HST43257

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I felt that there was an opportunity for Bristol, Cardiff and Reading to come into the mix. I’m sure a few Milton Keynes links wouldn’t be such a crime, never mind direct Bristol/Cardiff to Oxford?

Same perhaps applies to some extent to Ipswich (and maybe Colchester?) and Norwich.

With a mix of fast (further reaching) and slow (largely internal to EWR) services, I think the route could have good potential.

Call me crazy, idiotic or whatever but how about this

1tph Bristol to Milton Keynes FAST
1tp2h Cardiff to Norwich FAST
1tp2h Cardiff to Ipswich (Colchester?) FAST
1tph Reading to Milton Keynes SEMIFAST
1tph Reading to Cambridge SEMIFAST
1tph Aylesbury (or further) to Milton Keynes SEMIFAST
1tph Aylesbury (or further) to Cambridge SEMIFAST
1tp2h Reading to Banbury SLOW
1tp2h Reading to Bicester Village SLOW
1tph Milton Keynes to Bedford SLOW
 

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