What will happen to Northern, ATW & GWR if the Class 769 "FLEX" fails?

[LOL The Irony]

Mod note: split from this thread https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...ains-from-319s-initially-for-northern.138660/

What would happen to Northern if the Flex project fails?

Personally I think that they'll order Bi-mode versions of the 331's.

 

[EE Andy b1]

I think Northern should go for the Stadler Bi-mode.
Could perhaps even have other technologies fitted as they are advanced or end up with a pure EMU and get rid of the dead weight.

 

[DanNCL]

If the 319 FLEX project fails (which I think it will) then Northern will have a major fleet shortage, potentially leading to them defaulting on the franchise for being unable to deliver. With first the demise of VTEC, and now possibly the demise of GTR, the demise of a third franchise could cause Grayling some major issues...

Personally I'd like to see Stadler bi-modes, and some more 195s and 331s.

 

[LOL The Irony]

I don't see Stadler because they already have orders with CAF and it would just be cheaper and easier to add a follow on order of 195's or Bi-mode 331's.

 

[DanNCL]

I don't see Stadler because they already have orders with CAF and it would just be cheaper and easier to add a follow on order of 195's or Bi-mode 331's.

CAF may not be willing to offer a bi mode version of the 331. If that happens then if they want bi modes they'll have no choice but to go to Stadler.

195s working long distances under the wires would most likely be politically unacceptable.

 

[Domh245]

If (when) FLEX is deemed a failure, I highly doubt that they'd go for Stadler Bi-modes. I think I've explained my logic before but I'll do it again anyway

The 769s weren't procured for their bi-modal capability but because they were supposed to be in service fairly quickly and could move under their own power - the fact that they were bi-modal was a pleasant coincidence which will have influenced what routes they went on, but fundamentally it wasn't important. (much like Wales)

Northern need the extra capacity these will bring yesterday and Stadler seem to have a relatively long lead time compared to CAF. There is also the fleet commonality points as well, and for a franchise that is supposedly an economic basket case, any savings that can be made through standardising the fleet should be taken advantage of.

195s working long distances under the wires would most likely be politically unacceptable.

I'm not convinced that it would, otherwise the 195s and the subsequent CAF DMU orders for Wales and the West Midlands would have been forced to be bi-modes from the start.

I suspect that the people of the North want new trains and additional capacity, whether it runs under the wires without using them is of little interest to them, and it's not as if the recent electrification projects will suddenly be unused either. Don't forget that the 769s would have been replaced on Windermere services by 195s in the long run anyway.

 

[D365]

195s working long distances under the wires would most likely be politically unacceptable.

What’s the alternative then? Bearing in mind also that the 319/769 was never going to be “Northern Connect” standard. As above, Windermere is going to be served by 195s in the medium term since electrification has been cut.

Grayling and his super bi-mode wonder trains so far are looking like they will have as much explaining to do as even those responsible for GWEp.

 

[LOL The Irony]

195s working long distances under the wires would most likely be politically unacceptable.

Well maybe that'll prompt Grayling or his successor to bring back the cancelled electrification projects.

 

[DanNCL]

I'm not convinced that it would, otherwise the 195s and the subsequent CAF DMU orders for Wales and the West Midlands would have been forced to be bi-modes from the start.

Considering how widely publicised the delays to the Bolton wiring is, it would be very bad PR for diesel stock to carry on using the full length of that route once it's wired, although admittedly that appears to be the least of Grayling's concerns at the minute...

What’s the alternative then? Bearing in mind also that the 319/769 was never going to be “Northern Connect” standard.

331s, as originally proposed before the Windermere electrification was cancelled. Bearing the cancellation of Windermere electrification in mind, DMU shuttles from Lancaster to Barrow and Windermere could work, although I'm not sure if the franchise agreement allows for that or not.

Well maybe that'll prompt Grayling or his successor to bring back the cancelled electrification projects.

I'd hope so, but unfortunately it appears unlikely to happen unless there's a major change at the DFT...

 

[EE Andy b1]

the demise of a third franchise could cause Grayling some major issues...

Personally I'd like to see Stadler bi-modes, and some more 195s and 331s.

AS much as i don't like Arriva and anything they have done or in the case of Wales not done on the railways, i don't like seeing any TOC go down the pan especially when Grayling and Co have helped cause most problems we have at the moment.
But if Northern lose the franchise and it gets rid of Grayling id be happy with that!

More 195s & 331 as well as Stadler Bi-modes. Yes please.

 

[AlexNL]

Stadler seem to have a relatively long lead time compared to CAF.

But not when the production line is already running.

NS placed an order with Stadler for 58 FLIRT units in April 2015. Deliveries started March 2016, the units entered squadron services with the December 2016 timetable change, and all trains had been delivered by the end of April 2017.

As Stadler are already producing FLIRT UK units for Greater Anglia, a follow-on order from Northern (Porterbrook?) should be deliverable relatively quickly.

 

[Whattraintoday]

I agree with Domh245 - the 769s’ bi-modality is a happy accident, not a deliberate strategy.
Northern will just ring round every ROSCO for any DMU they can scrape up and, perhaps, Porterbrook will compensate them by refurbing some 144s to ePacer spec and letting them have them cheap.
DafT will give a nod-and-a-wink on the franchise commitment regarding removal of Pacers from service.
And the predictions of Pacers running past 2020 that everyone* poo-pooed will come true.

Northern can’t afford any more new trains. Had the franchise been let on a growth basis for the last two rounds then maybe they’d have the income.

*not including this forum!

 

[LOL The Irony]

Northern can’t afford any more new trains

Well if they set a deadline for the 769's to be operating with them, it could cover that.

 

[Domh245]

Considering how widely publicised the delays to the Bolton wiring is, it would be very bad PR for diesel stock to carry on using the full length of that route once it's wired, although admittedly that appears to be the least of Grayling's concerns at the minute...

It depends on the PR machine as well. Don't forget that the S.o.S. has been trumpeting the fact that passenger benefits can be delivered without electrification, so I don't think it requires too large a leap of imagination to arrive at a scenario where the PR machine is simply shouting "new trains" in passenger's faces rather than "new electric trains" - and given the delays and inconvenience that they've endured, so long as they can get on board the train when it arrives and it is a step up from a sprinter, they'll be happy.

I'd love nothing more than for Northern to get bi-modes, but with my pessimistic realist head on, it'll either be more 195s or being told to lump it.

But not when the production line is already running.

NS placed an order with Stadler for 58 FLIRT units in April 2015. Deliveries started March 2016, the units entered squadron services with the December 2016 timetable change, and all trains had been delivered by the end of April 2017.

As Stadler are already producing FLIRT UK units for Greater Anglia, a follow-on order from Northern (Porterbrook?) should be deliverable relatively quickly.

Doesn't necessarily follow. Stadler will have ordered the right amount of parts to build the GA Flirts and little more. Should there be an order from Porterbrook for "a whole load more of those ones you're building for Anglia please" Stadler will still need to get all of the parts ordered and fit them into a production line, but I do doubt that Porterbrook would do that, for starters they would aim to get a load of them with third rail equipment for GWR, and I expect that they would want to alter the design to try and make them more suitable for long Northern Routes (be that bigger fuel tanks or a different door layout for the Piccadilly-Oxford Road corridor). Looking at some lovely cold facts, they've just started to produce the car bodies for the merseyrail fleet and they aren't due to enter service for ~a year. That means that if Porterbrook ordered a whole bunch of 755s tomorrow, I think you would be looking at December 19 at the earliest. Admittedly additional 195s probably won't arrive any sooner, but then the factors around fleet commonality hand them the advantage. Either way, Northern are up a creek without a paddle unless the flexes suddenly start working and come into service soon.

 

[The_Engineer]

If it's diesel train that Northern want, and quickly, how about a diesel only Class 230? Have a few on Northwich and south Manchester services based at Chester along with the wales fleet?

 

[47802]

I'm not sure they will even need the extra capacity that these trains would bring, given the current timetable shambles there may well be a rethink on some aspects of the expanded timetable, added to which the current timetable shambles and continuing strikes is doing a good job at driving passengers away.

If they do need an alternatives to flex then as has already been said they don't need to be Bi-mode.

 

[LOL The Irony]

If it's diesel train that Northern want, and quickly, how about a diesel only Class 230? Have a few on Northwich and south Manchester services based at Chester along with the wales fleet?

Please no.

 

[The_Engineer]

Please no.

Cheap and cheerful!!

 

[LOL The Irony]

Cheap and cheerful!!

*Glares*
I already have to endure pacers. Although good idea...

 

[D365]

Cheap and cheerful!!

A definite improvement on the Class 769 then.

 

[Domh245]

If it's diesel train that Northern want, and quickly, how about a diesel only Class 230? Have a few on Northwich and south Manchester services based at Chester along with the wales fleet?

I think this is a brilliant idea, you can use 2 for running in passenger service, and then use the steam from the collective ears of users from Knutsford and Cheshire East to power a fleet formed from the Strategic Steam Reserve.

 

[LOL The Irony]

I think this is a brilliant idea, you can use 2 for running in passenger service, and then use the steam from the collective ears of users from Knutsford and Cheshire East to power a fleet formed from the Strategic Steam Reserve.

Me and Jcollins might have something to say about that...

 

[Domh245]

Me and Jcollins might have something to say about that...

And of course a certain someone who may well be regarded as some as the verbose septuagenarian in all of Cheshire East, who has something of a notoriety on this forum for his sceptical views on the project being led by Mr Shooter. I do of course make this post in jest

 

[LOL The Irony]

And of course a certain someone who may well be regarded as some as the verbose septuagenarian in all of Cheshire East, who has something of a notoriety on this forum for his sceptical views on the project being led by Mr Shooter. I do of course make this post in jest

so 3 car units?

 

[jayah]

If the 319 FLEX project fails (which I think it will) then Northern will have a major fleet shortage, potentially leading to them defaulting on the franchise for being unable to deliver. With first the demise of VTEC, and now possibly the demise of GTR, the demise of a third franchise could cause Grayling some major issues...

Personally I'd like to see Stadler bi-modes, and some more 195s and 331s.

Do you or anyone else who has fuelled this wave of speculation got any good reason or evidence that FLEX will fail?

If you can rebuild a D train with an accessible toilet, diesel and battery power there is a danger in underestimating what is possible.

 

[D365]

Do you or anyone else who has fuelled this wave of speculation got any good reason or evidence that FLEX will fail?

The Long Marston sidings are as good an evidence as any, some might say.

 

[LOL The Irony]

Do you or anyone else who has fuelled this wave of speculation got any good reason or evidence that FLEX will fail?

If you can rebuild a D train with an accessible toilet, diesel and battery power there is a danger in underestimating what is possible.

This is a thread about SPECULATION so you can speculate that they won't fail although this thread is about the aftermath of failure.

 

[The_Engineer]

Do you or anyone else who has fuelled this wave of speculation got any good reason or evidence that FLEX will fail?

I would say that failing to meet late 2017 for delivery, and into service in May 2018 for Northern, is a FAIL.

Dynamic testing was programmed for Autumn 2017, the latest statement it is Autumn 2018. It means they will be a year late into service (my estimate on my experience). That's a big fail in my book and Northern's. And it generously allows for no further problems.....

 

[DanNCL]

Do you or anyone else who has fuelled this wave of speculation got any good reason or evidence that FLEX will fail?

The fact that testing has been due "imminently" for what must be nearly a year now, and the fact that in the time it's taken Porterbrook to do what appears to be nothing, Stadler have designed, built and are now testing a brand new bi mode train.

The 769 was supposed to be a quick fix to the problem of there not being enough PRM compliant DMUs. It's already failed in regards to being a quick fix.

 

[jayah]

I would say that failing to meet late 2017 for delivery, and into service in May 2018 for Northern, is a FAIL.

Dynamic testing was programmed for Autumn 2017, the latest statement it is Autumn 2018. It means they will be a year late into service (my estimate on my experience). That's a big fail in my book and Northern's. And it generously allows for no further problems.....

Does any project on the railway meet its timescales? Electrification, new trains, even the timetables are running late now.