What will it take for Southern to get new trains?

[PGAT]

Stock is sitting empty to reduce mileage and it seems Southern are cutting every corner they can to minimise the number of units used. This means they want the stock to last as long as possible, implying there won't be anything else to replace them for a LONG time. Given the 377s have just had their midlife refresh, they will probably expected to tough out until the 2050s. That's a long time to go with such dire cuts.

 

[jojoseph72]

I don't believe that many of the TOC's realise that people have gone from working from home all week, to working from the office at least 3 days a week.

I think they have, issue is it’s unpredictable on which days are busier. You said on your line the busier days are Mon, Wed and Friday, but on my line the busiest days are Tues-Thurs.
It would be unexpected for TOCs to cater to demand for every day, so instead TOCs are willing to accept some days will see overcrowding some days will be rather empty.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Apr 2023 ==

Stock is sitting empty to reduce mileage and it seems Southern are cutting every corner they can to minimise the number of units used. This means they want the stock to last as long as possible, implying there won't be anything else to replace them for a LONG time. Given the 377s have just had their midlife refresh, they will probably expected to tough out until the 2050s. That's a long time to go with such dire cuts.

Wouldn’t expect a new fleet to enter with SN until towards the end of this decade tbh.
There might transfer of stock like the subleased SE 377 back to SN or 379s to GN (if the price is right) allowing 387s to come south of the river but a brand new fleet I’m not expecting any time soon.

 

[PGAT]

Wouldn’t expect a new fleet to enter with SN until towards the end of this decade tbh.
There might transfer of stock like the subleased SE 377 back to SN or 379s to GN (if the price is right) allowing 387s to come south of the river but a brand new fleet I’m not expecting any time soon.

If the rumours are true (that Southern don't want the 377/5s) then I don't expect a new fleet full stop.

 

[AM9]

If the rumours are true (that Southern don't want the 377/5s) then I don't expect a new fleet full stop.

But the 377s are 100mph trains whereas the 387s are 110mph stock. Given that there is no need (or chance) of using the additional performance of the 387s because:

1) there is no line speed limit over 95mph on the BML​

and​

2) the 387s' additional 40% of power to weight ratio would need to be permanently capped to the same maximum as the 377s by software as the routes have such limited power available from 3rd rail (which would prevent the use of their much higher rate of acceleration.*​

All in all, a waste of the 387's performance, whereas there are opportunities to exploit it where they are currently deployed north (and west) of London under 25kV OLE.

* Note: The TL class 700s are much lighter than the Electrostars (about 80% of the weight of the equivalent number of Electrostar cars) so their available performance is significantly better than all other stock running on Southern 3rd rail routes.

 

[Brubulus]

GTR have enough trains, but the 700s have been abysmal lately with regards to reliability, so 700s can't be used for Peterbrough peak extras. If 700s were used for said services, about 10 387s could go to Southern. The 3 387s that have recently gone off lease from GWR could also come, and 13 new trains would ease the shortage significantly. SE Mainline could give up the 377/5s without too much negative effects, and once that is done, Southern have a fleet that is at a size which is suitable long-term.

 

[AM9]

GTR have enough trains, but the 700s have been abysmal lately with regards to reliability, so 700s can't be used for Peterbrough peak extras. If 700s were used for said services, about 10 387s could go to Southern. The 3 387s that have recently gone off lease from GWR could also come, and 13 new trains would ease the shortage significantly. SE Mainline could give up the 377/5s without too much negative effects, and once that is done, Southern have a fleet that is at a size which is suitable long-term.

As above in post #64, - a waste of 387 performance, (including the GX 387/2s) on 3rd rail. What is the exact nature of the 700's unreliability that you are claiming?

 

[RobShipway]

But the 377s are 100mph trains whereas the 387s are 110mph stock. Given that there is no need (or chance) of using the additional performance of the 387s because:

1) there is no line speed limit over 95mph on the BML​

and​

2) the 387s' additional 40% of power to weight ratio would need to be permanently capped to the same maximum as the 377s by software as the routes have such limited power available from 3rd rail (which would prevent the use of their much higher rate of acceleration.*​

All in all, a waste of the 387's performance, whereas there are opportunities to exploit it where they are currently deployed north (and west) of London under 25kV OLE.

* Note: The TL class 700s are much lighter than the Electrostars (about 80% of the weight of the equivalent number of Electrostar cars) so their available performance is significantly better than all other stock running on Southern 3rd rail routes.

The 110mph capability is not being used by GN, so why would it matter if the 110mph is not used by Southern using the class 387 units?

The maximum if any of the class 387 units is being operated at by GN is 100mph, hence why it would not matter if they where replaced with class 379 units, which if need be can have their speed limit increased to be 110mph I believe?

 

[PGAT]

But the 377s are 100mph trains whereas the 387s are 110mph stock. Given that there is no need (or chance) of using the additional performance of the 387s because:

1) there is no line speed limit over 95mph on the BML​

and​

2) the 387s' additional 40% of power to weight ratio would need to be permanently capped to the same maximum as the 377s by software as the routes have such limited power available from 3rd rail (which would prevent the use of their much higher rate of acceleration.*​

All in all, a waste of the 387's performance, whereas there are opportunities to exploit it where they are currently deployed north (and west) of London under 25kV OLE.

* Note: The TL class 700s are much lighter than the Electrostars (about 80% of the weight of the equivalent number of Electrostar cars) so their available performance is significantly better than all other stock running on Southern 3rd rail routes.

Why are you so picky about the "efficiency" of the stock? Beggars can't be choosers.

 

[AM9]

The 110mph capability is not being used by GN, so why would it matter if the 110mph is not used by Southern using the class 387 units?

The maximum if any of the class 387 units is being operated at by GN is 100mph, hence why it would not matter if they where replaced with class 379 units, which if need be can have their speed limit increased to be 110mph I believe?

I didn't say that the 387s were running at 100mph on GN service, - only that "there are opportunities to exploit it where they are currently deployed north (and west) of London under 25kV OLE." That opportunity may be necessary in the future and would be lost if they were sent where there are no opportunities. As has been said elswhere, modifying the 379s for 110mph running is not zero cost, or necessarily a quick fix.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Apr 2023 ==

Why are you so picky about the "efficiency" of the stock? Beggars can't be choosers.

Please explain, - who are the beggars and what are their choices?

 

[RobShipway]

I didn't say that the 387s were running at 100mph on GN service, - only that "there are opportunities to exploit it where they are currently deployed north (and west) of London under 25kV OLE." That opportunity may be necessary in the future and would be lost if they were sent where there are no opportunities. As has been said elswhere, modifying the 379s for 110mph running is not zero cost, or necessarily a quick fix.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Apr 2023 ==


Please explain, - who are the beggars and what are their choices?

But the some class 387's are already used by Southern, because of the fact that they can be run 3rd rail on their services as well as running with OHLE. It would be more costly to convert the class 379 to run on third rail, than to have the speed of the class 379 units changed to be 110mph.

Please tell me what other 3rd rail emu stock that Southern can use in place of using the class 387 units and still be able to run their services when having to decrease their fleet?

 

[43074]

GTR have enough trains, but the 700s have been abysmal lately with regards to reliability, so 700s can't be used for Peterbrough peak extras. If 700s were used for said services, about 10 387s could go to Southern. The 3 387s that have recently gone off lease from GWR could also come, and 13 new trains would ease the shortage significantly. SE Mainline could give up the 377/5s without too much negative effects, and once that is done, Southern have a fleet that is at a size which is suitable long-term.

The Peterborough peak services are 700s from May anyway. There are no 387s freed up by doing that as the 387s are being stretched on GN as it is to cover more Cambridge stopping services. Likewise 700s running some Ely and Lynn trains shows there is a bit of a shortage on the GN routes.

 

[jojoseph72]

If the rumours are true (that Southern don't want the 377/5s) then I don't expect a new fleet full stop.

Well if the DfT want a quick gain to say their boosting capacity without actually investing 377/5s are an easy way to do that.

SE Mainline could give up the 377/5s without too much negative effects,

Only way I see SE “giving them up” is once all the 707s from SWR have transferred over as they are running on a smaller fleet then pre-pandemic if I’m correct.

Please explain, - who are the beggars and what are their choices?

Think what is meant by this is that if SN want to provide greater capacity with more trains they’ll need DfT approval.
The best way to appease them (the DfT) is if it can be done cheaply, 387 transfer south (with minimal work needed done to them) and 379 to GN would be the cheaper option then investing in now rolling stock.

The Peterborough peak services are 700s from May anyway. There are no 387s freed up by doing that as the 387s are being stretched on GN as it is to cover more Cambridge stopping services. Likewise 700s running some Ely and Lynn trains shows there is a bit of a shortage on the GN routes.

Yep May timetable see 377s and 387s stretched to about what they can cope with, whilst 700s will see reduced usage.

 

[D365]

But the some class 387's are already used by Southern, because of the fact that they can be run 3rd rail on their services as well as running with OHLE. It would be more costly to convert the class 379 to run on third rail, than to have the speed of the class 379 units changed to be 110mph.

How do you know this?

The Class 387/2s were delivered because it was a follow-on order from the Thameslink 387/1s.

 

[Sutton in Ant]

Whilst I agree with your comment and believe that it should not be the case of having to prove to the Government that they have got their figures wrong, especially in the fact of people with disability in wheelchairs not being able to get on crowded trains. You have to remember that many in the Government do not travel on trains as they will have limousines to take them from home to say the office or into London to attend events like Prime Ministers questions. So they are not seeing the impact that their changes are having on the general public.

The other issue you have is that many TOC's are still working on figures after Covid in the period 2020/2021, where the amount of people travelling was a lot less than we have either now or back in 2019. I don't believe that many of the TOC's realise that people have gone from working from home all week, to working from the office at least 3 days a week. I am the first to say that I don't travel on trains through the working week, but do have friends that do travel up from the likes of Brighton and Lewes up to London. They say that they find the busiest days for travelling is Monday, Wednesday and Friday. On Tuesday and Thursdays, they can at least find seats and that is even with travelling on the Brighton - London Gatwick Express service from Brighton station, the starting point of the service which is normally an 8 coach train. In the past though, the same service was a 12 coach train.

Now, the issue with the rush hour Gatwick Express services is that they stop at more places, so are semi - fast services rather than fast services, as the Gatwick Express services are being used to replace the Southern services between Brighton - London. A good example is the 0706 service from Brighton Station. The service stops at Preston Park, Hassocks, Burgess Hill and Haywards Heath before getting to Gatwick Airport. After that it goes straight through to London Victoria. This service I believe in the past was a 12 coach train from what I am led to believe from a friend, in the last 6 - 12 months though it has been changed to be an 8 coach train.

I know that Southern are using a few of the GatEX class 387 to replace the usage of class 377's which in turn are replacing the usage of class 455 and 313 units. But this for me is where Great Northern, if the price is right should be using the class 379 units with the class 387's then cascaded down to be used by Southern/Gatwick Express to lengthen the trains in service. But I know that it can be argued that other than the rush hour periods, there is no need to be using 12 coach GatEx trains between Brighton to London. So, what do you do with the spare units that are not being used which are not required by GatEx or by Southern for any of their services during the day? Bit of a waste of money if you are only using some of the units just for the rush hour periods, then after that they are stabled either at Brighton or Streatham Common is I believe the general thought of this Government.

Anyway, to get this thread back on track. As has been stated I think on the first page, Southern will certainly for the distant future at the moment not receive new trains, when there is ways of supplying more stock to Southern if required whether it is with using Class 387's from Great Northern or passing over class 377 units from South Eastern that are going spare.

Yes. I do hope that is the case and that in the future, more rolling stock will be coming to GTR Southern network.

 

[AM9]

Think what is meant by this is that if SN want to provide greater capacity with more trains they’ll need DfT approval.
The best way to appease them (the DfT) is if it can be done cheaply, 387 transfer south (with minimal work needed done to them) and 379 to GN would be the cheaper option then investing in now rolling stock.

That might suit some in southern but it doesn't do much for GN in terms of disruption whilst the 379s are converted for GN use, before the 387s are let go. Then do the 379s have the additional power that the 387 as a 38* Electrostar EMU has, i.e. about 20%, which if the 387's speed upgrade isn't to be taken advantage of, their far better acceleration will certainly be available without further modification.

Yep May timetable see 377s and 387s stretched to about what they can cope with, whilst 700s will see reduced usage.

Well if the 700s will be used less on GN services, and Southern is so deperate for capacity, they are fully compatible to run amongst all 3rd rail Electrostar operation (as they do for TL services) and conveniently their main depot is located halfway down the BML at Three Bridges. So no need to modify anything that way.

 

[jojoseph72]

That might suit some in southern but it doesn't do much for GN in terms of disruption whilst the 379s are converted for GN use, before the 387s are let go. Then do the 379s have the additional power that the 387 as a 38* Electrostar EMU has, i.e. about 20%, which if the 387's speed upgrade isn't to be taken advantage of, their far better acceleration will certainly be available without further modification.

Where would the disruption come from, they could do all the necessary works to the 379s before entering service with GN and then have a gradual introduction replacing be 387s slowly. Additionally rumours in the past had GN considering the 397s so clearly the challenges that come with it can’t be too bed… again not sure a rumour is a rumour.

Well if the 700s will be used less on GN services, and Southern is so deperate for capacity, they are fully compatible to run amongst all 3rd rail Electrostar operation (as they do for TL services) and conveniently their main depot is located halfway down the BML at Three Bridges. So no need to modify anything that way.

Even though 700 usage will be down on GN they still run an intensive service with TL, plus I don’t think any SN drivers are trained to drive 700s.
Other issues I can see is that I don’t think 700s are cleared on the whole SN network (could be wrong).

 

[RobShipway]

How do you know this?

The Class 387/2s were delivered because it was a follow-on order from the Thameslink 387/1s.

Because I have asked the question to a rail engineer about what would be more costly, converting the class 379 to third rail or changing them to do 110mph on OHLE. The answer came back converting the class 379 to third rail as it would be more time consuming than changing the speed on the class 379 units.

I am not sure why you mention the comment below, as it is not relevant to what is being discussed. Just because the class 387/2 was a follow on order to the class 387/1 for Thameslink does not mean that they cannot be used by Southern.

Class 387/2s were delivered because it was a follow-on order from the Thameslink 387/1s

 

[D365]

Because I have asked the question to a rail engineer about what would be more costly, converting the class 379 to third rail or changing them to do 110mph on OHLE. The answer came back converting the class 379 to third rail as it would be more time consuming than changing the speed on the class 379 units.

At the moment, the most expensive thing would be to recommission the units as they are! Anything beyond that is hypothetical.

I am not sure why you mention the comment below, as it is not relevant to what is being discussed. Just because the class 387/2 was a follow on order to the class 387/1 for Thameslink does not mean that they cannot be used by Southern.

My point is that the open production/order line meant that Gatwick Express ended up with a follow-on batch and that’s why they units have been able to be loaned to Great Northern and GWR.

What I have meant to ask is why the 700s are planned to be used ”less intensively”?

 

[RobShipway]

At the moment, the most expensive thing would be to recommission the units as they are! Anything beyond that is hypothetical.

True. But it would be cheaper certainly for Southern if they needed more stock to be using any spare class 387 units, as no alteration for use on 3rd rail lines would be required.

Even though 700 usage will be down on GN they still run an intensive service with TL, plus I don’t think any SN drivers are trained to drive 700s.
Other issues I can see is that I don’t think 700s are cleared on the whole SN network (could be wrong).

What I have meant to ask is why the 700s are planned to be used ”less intensively”?

That is something that I would like to know, as the class 377 & 387 are older units. admittedly the class 387 units are only two years older than the class 700, but I would have thought that the class 700 units are pretty much purpose built for the GN and Thameslink services?

 

[43074]

What I have meant to ask is why the 700s are planned to be used ”less intensively”?

That's more an outcome of the way Cambridge fast and stopping services form each other at Kings Cross than because there has been a concerted effort to reduce the number of diagrams. Although as it's fairly common to see 8 car 387s substitute for 8 car 700s on diagrams captive to the GN anyway in practice it will make little difference.

 

[jojoseph72]

That is something that I would like to know, as the class 377 & 387 are older units. admittedly the class 387 units are only two years older than the class 700, but I would have thought that the class 700 units are pretty much purpose built for the GN and Thameslink services?

What I have meant to ask is why the 700s are planned to be used ”less intensively”?

From what I understand the maintenance contracts for 377s and 387s are fixed meaning it doesn’t matter how little or maximum you use them you pay the same amount. However the 700s are in a per train basis, meaning if they can reduce overall mileage on these trains they can save some £££.
Again this is what I think I’m going to double check this with my source, so I’ll put an edit in later to confirm or update this.

 

[D365]

From what I understand the maintenance contracts for 377s and 387s are fixed meaning it doesn’t matter how little or maximum you use them you pay the same amount. However the 700s are in a per train basis, meaning if they can reduce overall mileage on these trains they can save some £££.
Again this is what I think I’m going to double check this with my source, so I’ll put an edit in later to confirm or update this.

That might be a possibility, plus you can stop a four car Class 387 unit for maintenance. Whereas to stop a Class 700 loses you eight or twelves carriages.

 

[Sutton in Ant]

I just wonder that in the future Southern Railway will be getting more rolling stock as there will be plenty of rolling stock that have come off lease or will be coming off lease like the 379s or 350/2s. They are too young to be scrapped.

 

[AM9]

I just wonder that in the future Southern Railway will be getting more rolling stock as there will be plenty of rolling stock that have come off lease or will be coming off lease like the 379s or 350/2s. They are too young to be scrapped.

The price for leasing is determined by the RoSCo that owns them and maybe determined against different criteria than just age and availability,

 

[philosopher]

I travelled to Holmwood from London Bridge yesterday on the 10:28 and returned from Box Hill on the 19:46. Both trains consisted of two 5 car units and were very empty throughout, I do not think more than 20% of the seats were ever occupied and it does seem that these trains could have been served by a single five car unit and still have loads of spare capacity.

So based on this experience, it would seem that Southern could be utilising their fleet more efficiently. However it could be that the London to Horsham via Carshalton services are more busy than they were yesterday.

 

[PGAT]

I travelled to Holmwood from London Bridge yesterday on the 10:28 and returned from Box Hill on the 19:46. Both trains consisted of two 5 car units and were very empty throughout, I do not think more than 20% of the seats were ever occupied and it does seem that these trains could have been served by a single five car unit and still have loads of spare capacity.

So based on this experience, it would seem that Southern could be utilising their fleet more efficiently. However it could be that the London to Horsham via Carshalton services are more busy than they were yesterday.

Weekend services are vastly different from Monday - Friday services. I'm assuming >90% of the people using Holmwood, Ockley and Warnham for example only take the train to commute to London, and, given the poor services on weekends, drive for their leisure needs instead of taking the train.

EDIT:

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 18 Apr 2023 ==

For some reason, the 0644 from East Grinstead to Bedford is now operated by Southern and only goes as far as London Bridge. Are they really THAT low on Class 700s?

Realtime Trains | 1L92 0644 East Grinstead to East Croydon | 21/04/2023

Real-time train running information for 1L92 0644 departure from East Grinstead to East Croydon on 21/04/2023. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

 

[London Trains]

I travelled to Holmwood from London Bridge yesterday on the 10:28 and returned from Box Hill on the 19:46. Both trains consisted of two 5 car units and were very empty throughout, I do not think more than 20% of the seats were ever occupied and it does seem that these trains could have been served by a single five car unit and still have loads of spare capacity.

So based on this experience, it would seem that Southern could be utilising their fleet more efficiently. However it could be that the London to Horsham via Carshalton services are more busy than they were yesterday.

Passenger numbers would have been lower than usual this weekend because of the Victoria closure - London Bridge is better for getting to the City and Canary Wharf, but Victoria is closer to the majority of the places people would visit at the weekend. The diversion also meant the trains couldn't serve Clapham Junction, where a large majority of the people using the service board/alight.

Your journey was also the opposite direction to the flow so is not an accurate representation of usage.

The use of 10 coach trains is probably because the London Bridge to Epsom via West Croydon weren't running as the paths were being used by Victoria services off the Brighton Main Line that were being diverted to London Bridge.

 

[SouthEastBuses]

Back in 2019, I actually predicted that Southern would be the next TOC (after TfL Crossrail/London Overground, Greater Anglia, SWR and LNWR/WMR) to order Bombardier/Alstom Aventra trains to replace their old class 313 and 455s, as well as adding extra capacity. But after the 455s were withdrawn without replacement in 2021 with the same thing about to happen to the 313s shortly, I no longer have this feeling

 

[JonathanH]

I would have thought that new build trains on Southern are now very unlikely until the 377s come to be replaced in the 2040s. The best that can be hoped for is a reappraisal of the Southeastern fleet releasing units at the time of Networker replacement, whenever that may be.

Incidentally, I travelled in carriage 10 of the 0645 Tattenham Corner to London Bridge today from Tadworth - no more than half full at any point, bay of four seats to myself.

Obviously only anecdotal but seemingly not the stuff of an overcrowded railway creaking with excessive demand.

I certainly think the peak time Victoria services from Caterham and Tattenham Corner will never return.

 

[SouthEastBuses]

I certainly think the peak time Victoria services from Caterham and Tattenham Corner will never return.

Just one question, what's the difference between peak time and off peak services on the Caterham/Tattenham Corner lines? Don't they all go to London Victoria?

At least here in Horsham the service is exactly like pre-Covid. 2tph fast Southern services to London Victoria via Gatwick Airport & East Croydon, 1tph slow Southern service to London Victoria via Dorking & Epsom, 2tph Southern services to Bognor Regis, 1tph Southern service to Portsmouth Harbour, 1tph Southern service to Southampton Central and 2tph Thameslink services to Peterborough.

Although I have noticed that the Bognor Regis/Southampton/Portsmouth-London services via Horsham are now 8 coaches instead of 12 as it was pre-covid. I wonder if that's because of the 377s having to replace the 455s?