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Why are 'flu levels so low worldwide now?

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yorkie

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Who are the authoritarians? Not some mumbo jumbo about non-existent lockdown junkies, but who with power and influence? And is it the power that makes them act in an authoritarian manner in your view?
People who seek to impose harsh restrictions, such as full lockdown measures, mask mandates and more. I'm not really sure what causes this behaviour but I think that's well beyond the scope of this thread.
Flu rebranded as Covid ( or mixed in with statistics) so that flu isn't reported? Don't know basically
No; they are two completely different diseases (influenza has multiple strains, whereas there is only one strain of the virus that can cause the disease called Covid-19, namely Sars-CoV-2, which is a member of the Coronavirus family of viruses).

There has not been any re-branding as such, but there is strong evidence that viral interference is suppressing flu to historically low levels.

What has caused the reduction in flu? Honestly, I'd guesstimate a bit of everything. Improved hygiene standards I would attribute mainly...
I don't see how it can be mostly due to this, especially in the southern hemisphere?
 
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Purple Orange

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People who seek to impose harsh restrictions, such as full lockdown measures, mask mandates and more. I'm not really sure what causes this behaviour but I think that's well beyond the scope of this thread.
Well I put it to you that these people are very much in the minority, who actively want further restrictions and mandates, to the extent where you don't need to worry about them.
 

yorkie

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Well I put it to you that these people are very much in the minority, who actively want further restrictions and mandates, to the extent where you don't need to worry about them.
Yes they are in the minority, but they are an extremely vocal minority.
 

LancasterRed

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I don't see how it can be mostly due to this, especially in the southern hemisphere?
Hygiene encompasses a broad church of things, or at least how I interpret it. From a UK perspective I'd be surprised if additional cleaning which stops transmission didn't make a noticeable impact.
 

whoosh

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The whole world, Southern hemisphere and Northern hemisphere, have been trying to get the R rate of Covid down from 3 (which it is with no mitigation taken) to below 1. The flu is 1.5 without mitigation.

Guess what? Mitigating against a disease spread between people, also works for another disease spread between people! Who'd have thought?! And with a head start of a more favourable R number, that disease would dip below 1 first and dwindle.

It's not rocket science!
 

MikeWM

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I wonder if increased awareness of measures to make your body better able to combat such things is playing some part. For example, until I started researching treatments for covid, I had no idea how effective a decent intake of vitamin D was in mitigating against a bad case of the flu (as well as covid) - but it does appear to be a very major help.

Going forward I intend to make sure my vitamin D levels are always in good shape - and if a decent number of other people are doing similar things, that could help a lot in reducing cases serious enough to be 'noticed'.
 

yorkie

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The whole world, Southern hemisphere and Northern hemisphere, have been trying to get the R rate of Covid down from 3 (which it is with no mitigation taken) to below 1. The flu is 1.5 without mitigation.

Guess what? Mitigating against a disease spread between people, also works for another disease spread between people! Who'd have thought?! And with a head start of a more favourable R number, that disease would dip below 1 first and dwindle.

It's not rocket science!
Just to be clear, you are saying you don't believe it's down to viral interference, even in part?

How do you explain the high prevalence of Rhinoviruses during the Rhinovirus season?

Edit: This article is interesting and further supports the argument I've been making:

Detection of rhinovirus remained low after the easing of national lockdown on the May 10, 2020, compared with the previous year. Around 2 weeks after the concurrent re-opening of state primary and secondary schools in early September, there was a sharp increase in the number of detections similar to that seen in 2019...
Our data support previous reports that children are a major reservoir for rhinovirus infection, and a key driver of transmission to adults. Furthermore, our data suggests that current physical distancing measures adopted by schools do not effectively prevent rhinovirus transmission. These findings might have important implications for circulation of both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 in the coming winter months. If current distancing measures in schools do not prevent rhinovirus transmission, it seems likely that the same will hold true for influenza, for which young children are also known to be key transmitters.https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30502-6/fulltext#bib5
The implications for SARS-CoV-2 are less clear, as young children appear to be less susceptible to infection than older children or adults, but once infected they have similar levels of detectable virus in the nasopharynx....
So that blows out of the water the claim that the measures we implemented to reduce infections managed to avoid an explosion in Rhinovirus infections.

And yet levels of influenza have remained low.

Those who appear to be in denial that viral interference is a major factor in this are not offering any credible evidence to support their claims.
 
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Bantamzen

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Just to be clear, you are saying you don't believe it's down to viral interference, even in part?

How do you explain the high prevalence of Rhinoviruses during the Rhinovirus season?
Would those be the Rhinoviruses that also spread between people in similar ways to covid and flu? ;)

If so I can testify, during the winter I felt like I had cold after cold, I've never gone through so much blumming Lemsip (other brands of cold / flu remedies are available). I was so glad when hayfever season came around, because I can at least mitigate that with simple honey (a teaspoon a day from the start of the year works wonders for me!).
 

Purple Orange

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The whole world, Southern hemisphere and Northern hemisphere, have been trying to get the R rate of Covid down from 3 (which it is with no mitigation taken) to below 1. The flu is 1.5 without mitigation.

Guess what? Mitigating against a disease spread between people, also works for another disease spread between people! Who'd have thought?! And with a head start of a more favourable R number, that disease would dip below 1 first and dwindle.

It's not rocket science!

Exactly and below is a link to an article that gives reasons to back this up. Notably it cites the expanded flu vaccination programme and the various social distancing measures as reasons for flu cases to have fallen.


This quote from the article gives an explanation:

“Influenza and Corona viruses infect the lungs following inhalation of environmental droplets”, Tracy Hussell, Professor of Inflammatory Disease at Manchester University, told Reuters via email.
“Since they use a similar transmission route, the measures currently being taken to slow the development of severe COVID-19 disease (social distancing and mask wearing) are likely responsible for the reduction in influenza virus infection in the current 2020/2021 season”.
 
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87electric

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Exactly and below is a link to an article that gives reasons to back this up. Notably it cites the expanded flu vaccination programme and the various social distancing measures as reasons for flu cases to have fallen.


This quote from the article gives an explanation:

“Influenza and Corona viruses infect the lungs following inhalation of environmental droplets”, Tracy Hussell, Professor of Inflammatory Disease at Manchester University, told Reuters via email.
“Since they use a similar transmission route, the measures currently being taken to slow the development of severe COVID-19 disease (social distancing and mask wearing) are likely responsible for the reduction in influenza virus infection in the current 2020/2021 season”.
I don’t pretend to have any medical knowledge at all, but this seems so logical and straight forward to understand. Statistics, graphs, charts can prove anything that anyone wants them to. Sometimes, the obvious and simple explanation, is the answer.
 

londonteacher

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Surely in part, the reduction in flu levels is down to all of the different social restrictions and preventative measures people tried over the last year. Not one single measure can be discounted although I'm sure some are more effective than others. Also, I'm sure nobody is suggesting that the measures remain permanently.

People, generally, throughout the world have been more cautious about potential virus transmission so reduced flu levels are only to be expected.
 
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peters

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December 2019 - I was travelling to work daily by train and attended a Christmas Party. The week after a work Christmas party, which had numerous different companies attending the same event, I started showing symptoms of either a very bad cold or the flu, which took a couple of weeks to go away.

December 2020 - Ignoring outdoor exercise and shopping, I only left the house twice and only used public transport for one return journey. I wore a mask on both those occasions.

According to the Centers for Disease and Prevention COVID-19 is more contagious than flu, so if the social distancing measures put in place are effective at reducing the spread of COVID then they will also reduce the spread of the flu. They also note that people generally start showing symptoms of the flu earlier, so there's less chance of someone spreading it around without realising they are infectious.
 

Purple Orange

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I don’t pretend to have any medical knowledge at all, but this seems so logical and straight forward to understand. Statistics, graphs, charts can prove anything that anyone wants them to. Sometimes, the obvious and simple explanation, is the answer.
Surely in part, the reduction in flu levels is down to all of the different social restrictions and preventative measures people tried over the last year. Not one single measure can be discounted although I'm sure some are more effective than others. Also, I'm sure nobody is suggesting that

People, generally, throughout the world have been more cautious about potential virus transmission so reduced flu levels are only to be expected.

Quite. I think the idea that covid is flu rebranded is a whole load of nonsense. Sometimes there are better and more rational explanations out there.
 

Bantamzen

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Quite. I think the idea that covid is flu rebranded is a whole load of nonsense. Sometimes there are better and more rational explanations out there.
I don't think anyone is rebranding flu as covid, what is being suggested is that some flu cases are being missed because of the focus on covid as well as the possibility that covid is dampening down influenza, just as rhinoviruses have been shown to potentially push out out SARS-Cov-2.
 

Philip

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In terms of the UK, the peak of the flu season last year was in November, when we had the second lockdown. I think a combination of this and other social distancing measures, together with a much higher flu vaccine take up than usual are probably the biggest factors. All three lockdowns have reduced the number of coronavirus cases, so it is logical to think they also did the same for flu, since flu is less transmissable.
 

Purple Orange

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I don't think anyone is rebranding flu as covid, what is being suggested is that some flu cases are being missed because of the focus on covid as well as the possibility that covid is dampening down influenza, just as rhinoviruses have been shown to potentially push out out SARS-Cov-2.

It’s on page 1 of this thread...
 

Purple Orange

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Is it? Care to make a quote?
Flu rebranded as Covid ( or mixed in with statistics) so that flu isn't reported? Don't know basically
I didn’t quote it because I don’t think @24Grange is making that point, but the comment I made was in reference to the existence of the concept and to state that I think it is nonsense, which has been highlighted in the thread and the article I posted.
 
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Bantamzen

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I didn’t quote it because I don’t think @24Grange is making that point, but the comment I made was in reference to the existence of the concept and to state that I think it is nonsense, which has been highlighted in the thread and the article I posted.
So you don't know if that poster was even making that point, but that it might be possible that someone, somewhere might be.

Ok.....
 

Purple Orange

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So you don't know if that poster was even making that point, but that it might be possible that someone, somewhere might be.

Ok.....
actually the point was not that it is a concept being peddled on here, but rather highlighting the myth and stating it is nonsense, whereas the drop in flu cases are better explained by a combination of the actions taken over the past 14 months.
 

Bantamzen

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actually the point was not that it is a concept being peddled on here, but rather highlighting the myth and stating it is nonsense, whereas the drop in flu cases are better explained by a combination of the actions taken over the past 14 months.
So what you are saying is that no-one was claiming that flu was being rebranded as covid?
 

Purple Orange

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No I'm not.

You are. I referenced reasons as to the downward trend in flu cases, gave my opinion on a common myth and you’ve taken it to assume I’m saying people on this particular thread are arguing for that myth, which I didn’t do. Specifically what issue are you trying to raise here?
 

pelli

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I do not believe that the unnamed epidemiologists who purportedly claim it was due to "public health measures"; if this is true then the countries with the least stringent measures are also being successful, and you'd also expect a correlation between stringency of measures and levels of flu. But there is no evidence of this.

I believe viral interference is much more likely, for example the 2009 H1N1 pandemic may have been disrupted by Rhinovirus strains:

These findings show that one respiratory virus can block infection with another through stimulation of antiviral defences in the airway mucosa, supporting the idea that interference from rhinovirus disrupted the 2009 IAV pandemic in Europe. These results indicate that viral interference can potentially affect the course of an epidemic...

So is the correct way to think of "viral interference" simply that a currently/recently virus-infected person is less likely to catch a second virus due to the body being in defense mode? That certainly sounds plausible. How long does the effect last? Is it just that during and immediately after an infection the immune system is in full swing and thus repels other infections as well (your linked paper abstract seems to mention timeframes of 3-6 days) or is it a more complex heightened defense readiness that can last for months?

Focusing on the UK, you could try to compare with the flu jab, because presumably the effect of viral interference is simply that a covid infection causes you to become temporarily immune to the flu (with some degree of efficacy in between 0% and 100%). So you could look up the estimated number of Covid infections in say the first wave (not just positive tests, which are obviously much lower) and imagine that those people in effect got a flu jab - would this be a significant increase over the number of people already taking flu jabs in any given flu season? (Does the answer depend on whether you only count people who were infected by Covid "in the last 3-6 days" or "at any point in the last 6 months"?) This should give you a rough idea of how much of an effect Covid viral interference would have had on the flu.

As for comparing between countries, as a more concrete observational approach on figuring out how large the effect of viral interference is, compared with the effects of changes in regulations or behaviour (admittedly other effects have been proposed that may also be important, but this seems to be the main ponit of contention in your initial post), the difficulty is of course that you'd expect everything to be correlated by default: More Covid cases in a country leads to all three of increased viral interference, increased government-imposed restrictions, and increased voluntary behavioural changes. So our best bet in answering the question would be to look at countries where these correlations are weakest.

For example, I think early on some countries like New Zealand, Taiwan and Vietnam were known for quickly imposing strong restrictions without having a large number of Covid cases. So how did the flu fare over there? If the flu reduced much less than in other countries, then the reduction in other countries was likely due to viral interference. If the flu saw a similar reduction as in other countries, then the reduction was likely not due to viral intereference.

It would be good to also have opposite examples, i.e. countries with large numbers of Covid cases but no change in regulations or behaviour. However, while information on regulations is straightforward to obtain, I think it would be difficult to ascertain how little people's behaviour changed - even if a country with no restrictions still had scenes of mass gatherings and packed public transport, it's difficult to tell whether those scenes remained as frequent as before the pandemic, and whether the average person might have started washing their hands more often and avoiding going out as much simply based on scaremongering media coverage (such as the images of military trucks lining the streets in Italy that were likely broadcasted all over the world).
 

plugwash

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Given that flu is a seasonal disease I wonder if the massive reduction in travel between hemispheres is also a contributing factor.
 

Bantamzen

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Quite. I think the idea that covid is flu rebranded is a whole load of nonsense. Sometimes there are better and more rational explanations out there.

You are. I referenced reasons as to the downward trend in flu cases, gave my opinion on a common myth and you’ve taken it to assume I’m saying people on this particular thread are arguing for that myth, which I didn’t do. Specifically what issue are you trying to raise here?
As per the top quote, you seemed to imply that covid was being made as flu rebranded. My point was that nobody was doing that.
 

peters

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Given that flu is a seasonal disease I wonder if the massive reduction in travel between hemispheres is also a contributing factor.

One warning people are given if they are visiting Gibraltar is influenza can be deadly if it's passed on to baby Barbary macaques so the recommendation is you don't try to touch the macaques because even during the summer you could be carrying influenza without realising it.
 

Purple Orange

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As per the top quote, you seemed to imply that covid was being made as flu rebranded. My point was that nobody was doing that.

That’s because there have been those comments going around, but I don’t understand why you keep assuming my comment was specifically about this thread rather than the issue that is circulating more widely across social media. Even within this thread, it was raised twice as a subject before I commented upon it to state it is a nonsense concept, so why you keep badgering me about it, I don’t know.

What has caused the reduction in flu? Honestly, I'd guesstimate a bit of everything. Improved hygiene standards I would attribute mainly, but to take a holistic view would be the most logical.

Flu rebranded as Covid ( or mixed in with statistics) so that flu isn't reported? Don't know basically

Likely a bit of this too.
 

Bantamzen

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That’s because there have been those comments going around, but I don’t understand why you keep assuming my comment was specifically about this thread rather than the issue that is circulating more widely across social media. Even within this thread, it was raised twice as a subject before I commented upon it to state it is a nonsense concept, so why you keep badgering me about it, I don’t know.
Well perhaps you should stop being so vague and actually quite these things? Just a thought.
 
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