Why do Advance fares decrease in price?

[PavlosA]

Hi all

I recently received the ticket alert for advance tickets on 22 Sep 23 from Gravesend to Sheffield. I booked immediately for £40 (10.15 - 13.00)

The next day the price was £29. I can see that I booked code 2FS and the cheaper ticket is 2DS.

What's the logic behind cheaper batches being released after more expensive ones? Appreciate I can't do much about it know, but would love to know for future reference. Doesn't mention this in the fares guide so thought I'd ask.

Also had a quick question on trainsplit whilst I'm here. Just to aid my understanding of the site.

I searched for the same journey above, and trainsplit shows a cheaper option that I don't quite understand. It offers me the following tickets:


with the following journey:


This suggests I can change at East Midlands Parkway, but if both tickets are Advance from Leicester, surely I would need to change there?

Also, when I look for the ticket on EMR site, it shows the first leg as £22.80, not £19.50.

Thanks!
Paul

 

[Snow1964]

Dealing with last point first, I suspect it is a pricing anomaly that it is adding a cross London transfer (not needed if going from St Pancras to St Pancras On HS1). Probably not distinguishing a route via Thameslink or tube properly

The change at East Midlands parkway is probably to even out loadings, put you on a quieter train (with more availability) south of there. It's a blunt way of saying one train has too many carriages (so will fill them cheap, rather than leaving empty seats), but might be because the return leg of same train needs lots of carriages

Restriction AR is East Midlands trains with connection via HS1 (not valid to arrive St Pancras before 09:59 or 15:59-19:00 Mon-Fri). Clearly based on old pre covid peak hour and inconsistent with other operators who now treat Friday rules more like weekends.

Oddly the bucket of advances is often split into only using the train and train and a connection, and sometimes the with connection has more available so offers them at cheaper fare (yes does mean go further for less money, illogical as end up using same overall quota). Not unique to EMR either, have seen it on XC where a ticket to Bristol is lot more than one including a GWR connection few stops beyond Bristol.

 

[Watershed]

I recently received the ticket alert for advance tickets on 22 Sep 23 from Gravesend to Sheffield. I booked immediately for £40 (10.15 - 13.00)

The next day the price was £29. I can see that I booked code 2FS and the cheaper ticket is 2DS.

What's the logic behind cheaper batches being released after more expensive ones? Appreciate I can't do much about it know, but would love to know for future reference. Doesn't mention this in the fares guide so thought I'd ask.

There's not really any great logic to it. Most of the time, Advances will only get more expensive closer to the date of travel, but occasionally they will get cheaper. It's a bit like air fares in that respect.

Also had a quick question on trainsplit whilst I'm here. Just to aid my understanding of the site.

I searched for the same journey above, and trainsplit shows a cheaper option that I don't quite understand. It offers me the following tickets:

with the following journey:

This suggests I can change at East Midlands Parkway, but if both tickets are Advance from Leicester, surely I would need to change there?

No; the fact that you're buying a combination of tickets splitting at Leicester merely means you have to call at Leicester. You don't necessarily have to change trains just because you're splitting. Because these are Advance tickets, you would have to change where your itinerary stated - it's not just a suggestion.

It's possible that the same price is available by changing at Leicester instead; TrainSplit's advanced options let you specify this, if you prefer changing there.

Also, when I look for the ticket on EMR site, it shows the first leg as £22.80, not £19.50.

Sometimes there can be different prices on different sites due to one site 'locking' the last available seat at a particular price. There are several other, more technical, reasons that can also cause this.

 

[PavlosA]

The change at East Midlands parkway is probably to even out loadings, put you on a quieter train (with more availability) south of there. It's a blunt way of saying one train has too many carriages (so will fill them cheap, rather than leaving empty seats), but might be because the return leg of same train needs lots of carriages

I see. So even though I would have separate advance tickets changing at Leicester, I would be allowed to stay on the first train past Leicester and change at EMD?

 

[The exile]

Cynically, to catch people in your situation- who are definitely intending to travel and will grab tickets at the first opportunity, provided there’s some tangible advance discount. Once those people have bought them (or possibly when the system notices that most people aren’t buying at that price!) - release cheaper ones.

 

[PavlosA]

I guess my

No; the fact that you're buying a combination of tickets splitting at Leicester merely means you have to call at Leicester. You don't necessarily have to change trains just because you're splitting. Because these are Advance tickets, you would have to change where your itinerary stated - it's not just a suggestion.

It's possible that the same price is available by changing at Leicester instead; TrainSplit's advanced options let you specify this, if you prefer changing there.

Right. I guess my concern is - is this itinerary valid given that it's not offered on national rail site? I don't see how I would be able to book this and get this itinerary elsewhere.

 

[alistairlees]

Cynically, to catch people in your situation- who are definitely intending to travel and will grab tickets at the first opportunity, provided there’s some tangible advance discount. Once those people have bought them (or possibly when the system notices that most people aren’t buying at that price!) - release cheaper ones.

Although completely incorrect.

 

[Punk43]

Cynically, to catch people in your situation- who are definitely intending to travel and will grab tickets at the first opportunity, provided there’s some tangible advance discount. Once those people have bought them (or possibly when the system notices that most people aren’t buying at that price!) - release cheaper ones.

Yup. Just like plane tickets?

 

[Watershed]

I see. So even though I would have separate advance tickets changing at Leicester, I would be allowed to stay on the first train past Leicester and change at EMD?

When using Advance tickets, you must follow the itinerary you choose when booking. So yes, in this instance you would not only be allowed to stay on the first train past Leicester, but you would indeed be required to do so.

If you were travelling with a walk-up ticket (Off-Peak, Anytime etc.), then you would be allowed to follow the itinerary too, but you would not be required to do so.

I guess my


Right. I guess my concern is - is this itinerary valid given that it's not offered on national rail site? I don't see how I would be able to book this and get this itinerary elsewhere.

Yes - the National Rail Enquiries site can be useful for certain things, but it's not always the best at finding cheaper options (such as here, where changing at EMD rather than Leicester may reduce the cost of the journey). You are contractually entitled to travel in accordance with the itinerary you're given when buying a ticket, and in the case of an Advance, you are contractually required to do so.

 

[Lewisham2221]

Cynically, to catch people in your situation- who are definitely intending to travel and will grab tickets at the first opportunity, provided there’s some tangible advance discount. Once those people have bought them (or possibly when the system notices that most people aren’t buying at that price!) - release cheaper ones.

I came here to say this. They sometimes use this tactic with concert tickets - releasing bang average tickets for pre-sales etc (I.e the kind of fans who will buy no matter what) and then releasing better tickets and/or cheaper tickets for general sale afterwards (I.e the people who's purchase may be more discretionary based on price or where they get to sit/stand).

It's also possible that when you first looked, someone else was "holding" the lower fare, but then did not go on to purchase it, making it available again afterwards. (Think you go into a shop to buy something and somebody else already has the last one in their trolley, so you choose and pay for an alternative, then the other person decides they don't want the item so goes and puts it back on the shelf.)

 

[PavlosA]

When using Advance tickets, you must follow the itinerary you choose when booking. So yes, in this instance you would not only be allowed to stay on the first train past Leicester, but you would indeed be required to do so.

If you were travelling with a walk-up ticket (Off-Peak, Anytime etc.), then you would be allowed to follow the itinerary too, but you would not be required to do so.


Yes - the National Rail Enquiries site can be useful for certain things, but it's not always the best at finding cheaper options (such as here, where changing at EMD rather than Leicester may reduce the cost of the journey). You are contractually entitled to travel in accordance with the itinerary you're given when buying a ticket, and in the case of an Advance, you are contractually required to do so.

OK. This almost makes perfect sense

So if I book this itinerary, through trainsplit, that's the journey I must make. But I can't book this same specific itinerary through TOC sites? Or at least, I could, but it won't offer me the same tickets?

 

[Watershed]

OK. This almost makes perfect sense

So if I book this itinerary, through trainsplit, that's the journey I must make.

Exactly

But I can't book this same specific itinerary through TOC sites?

Probably not. Most sites tend to start by searching for the fastest itineraries, and then offering you fares for that. If there are several itineraries that all involve changing between the same trains at different stations (e.g. in this case you could change between the two trains at Leicester or EMD), they will show you the itinerary that involves changing at the station that is deemed more 'important' in the industry data - Leicester, in this case. They won't look to see if alternative itineraries, e.g. changing at EMD, are cheaper - TrainSplit is one of few sites that searches in this way.

Or at least, I could, but it won't offer me the same tickets?

You would probably get an itinerary which includes the same trains, but it might involve changing at Leicester rather than EMD, and that might make the tickets more expensive. You almost certainly wouldn't be provided with a suggested split at Leicester.

 

[PavlosA]

Exactly


Probably not. Most sites tend to start by searching for the fastest itineraries, and then offering you fares for that. If there are several itineraries that all involve changing between the same trains at different stations (e.g. in this case you could change between the two trains at Leicester or EMD), they will show you the itinerary that involves changing at the station that is deemed more 'important' in the industry data - Leicester, in this case. They won't look to see if alternative itineraries, e.g. changing at EMD, are cheaper - TrainSplit is one of few sites that searches in this way.


You would probably get an itinerary which includes the same trains, but it might involve changing at Leicester rather than EMD, and that might make the tickets more expensive. You almost certainly wouldn't be provided with a suggested split at Leicester.

Thanks

As is often the case with UK rail, the explanation makes more sense that the behaviour.

 

[PavlosA]

Here's a follow up. Return tickets just became available yesterday. Sheffield to Gravesend, 24 Sep. EMR email alert said cheapest tickets available were £29. But none are available online yet. There are advanced as far as St Pancras, but not all the way. Any idea why this would be?

 

[Gaelan]

Here's a follow up. Return tickets just became available yesterday. Sheffield to Gravesend, 24 Sep. EMR email alert said cheapest tickets available were £29. But none are available online yet. There are advanced as far as St Pancras, but not all the way. Any idea why this would be?

Presumably EMR have released advances, but Southeastern haven't. Southeastern's website says they're currently selling weekend advances up through 16 Sep. I would guess EMR are sending out the email as soon as they're selling their tickets, without checking what other operators are doing.

If you wanted, you could buy a Sheffield-StP ticket now and an StP-Gravesend ticket when they become available. But it's a little hard to say if that'd end up working out cheaper.

 

[PavlosA]

Thanks. Yes I can get to StP for 20. Actually didn't consider advances were ever available on Southeastern and assumed I'd have to get a 20 quid single.

 

[Gaelan]

Thanks. Yes I can get to StP for 20. Actually didn't consider advances were ever available on Southeastern and assumed I'd have to get a 20 quid single.

Come to think of it, there aren’t advances on (domestic) HS1, are there? That muddles my theory a little - maybe they still require reservations for advances, even though they don’t offer advances of their own? I’ll defer to someone more knowledgeable.

 

[scragend]

Come to think of it, there aren’t advances on (domestic) HS1, are there? That muddles my theory a little - maybe they still require reservations for advances, even though they don’t offer advances of their own? I’ll defer to someone more knowledgeable.

I think there are. In April this year I went St. Pancras to Dover on a Southeastern Advance via HS1.

 

[PavlosA]

Ok so let's say southeastern are yet to release. When they do, do we think the price would be the difference between the 20 to 25 on offer currently as far as StP and the 29 mentioned in the email?

Just worried if I buy the 20.80 available, there won't be StP to Gravesend advances released and available individually. Never seen them before...

 

[alistairlees]

Ok so let's say southeastern are yet to release. When they do, do we think the price would be the difference between the 20 to 25 on offer currently as far as StP and the 29 mentioned in the email?

Just worried if I buy the 20.80 available, there won't be StP to Gravesend advances released and available individually. Never seen them before...

There are no Advance fares from London St Pancras to Gravesend.

There are Advance fares from London St Pancras to Higham (the next station), and destinations beyond there.

You could travel to Higham, then go back from there - in theory. I say "in theory" because I don't see any dates where St Pancras to Higham Advances are available. Longer distance ones (e.g. to Ramsgate or Rochester) are available though, on the trains on which Higham ones are not.

A St Pancras to Gravesend Anytime Day Single is £20.20 on SE High Speed (via Stratford), or £15.10 on Thameslink (via London Bridge). The Thameslink services are more frequent, nornally, though I don't there are any on 24th September. So HS1 it is!

 

[PavlosA]

So maybe I hang on for the full ticket...

 

[JonathanH]

So maybe I hang on for the full ticket...

I'd check if it is available on other dates before making a decision. Part of the reason for offering advance fares on the networks south of the Thames is to 'block' through advance fares from the other operators.

 

[Watershed]

Part of the reason for offering advance fares on the networks south of the Thames is to 'block' through advance fares from the other operators.

It's not necessary to offer Advance tickets in order to limit/quota control Advances from further afield.

Firstly, multi-TOC Advances are only offered by mutual agreement, and can be withdrawn at any time if it no longer suits one of the TOCs.

Secondly, it's possible to add time restrictions to Advance tickets (via their restriction code) to prevent their sale at times of day that the relevant TOC doesn't want them to be offered. Southeastern already do this for some Advances.

Finally, the mere act of marking a train as reservable in the timetable data means that reservations must be available for Advances to be sold on it. A TOC could choose never to release reservations, or to block them on the basis of the ticket type code or route code, to block Advances from being sold.

 

[JonathanH]

It's not necessary to offer Advance tickets in order to limit/quota control Advances from further afield.

Firstly, multi-TOC Advances are only offered by mutual agreement, and can be withdrawn at any time if it no longer suits one of the TOCs.

Secondly, it's possible to add time restrictions to Advance tickets (via their restriction code) to prevent their sale at times of day that the relevant TOC doesn't want them to be offered. Southeastern already do this for some Advances.

Finally, the mere act of marking a train as reservable in the timetable data means that reservations must be available for Advances to be sold on it. A TOC could choose never to release reservations, or to block them on the basis of the ticket type code or route code, to block Advances from being sold.

Right, so there is more than one way for the South of the London operators (and indeed other operators such as Scotrail) to block through advances. Whichever way it is done, it seems appropriate to check that the through advance is actually available on some dates before waiting for it to become available.

 

[PavlosA]

Well weirdly I've managed to get the full outward journey, which was available for 29 (which definitely must be advance on both TOCs)... So I expect the return to be available, but perhaps I need to wait?

When I search on EMR for full journey it says timetable unconfirmed. That sounds incorrect I'd I can get the first portion.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

Well weirdly I've managed to get the full outward journey, which was available for 29 (which definitely must be advance on both TOCs)... So I expect the return to be available, but perhaps I need to wait?

When I search on EMR for full journey it says timetable unconfirmed. That sounds incorrect I'd I can get the first portion.

Is the outward journey for Friday 22nd September 2023?

When are you currently wanting to be travelling back? Same day, or Saturday 23rd September 2023? Is there any return direction availability *if* you were to travel on the same Friday, not that you'd necessarily be doing so?

Maybe the timetable is unconfirmed because it's a Saturday?

 

[PavlosA]

Yes,advances available on the Friday 22nd. I'm coming back on Sunday 24th...
So maybe it's an unconfirmed timetable for the Sunday...

 

[alistairlees]

Well weirdly I've managed to get the full outward journey, which was available for 29 (which definitely must be advance on both TOCs)... So I expect the return to be available, but perhaps I need to wait?

When I search on EMR for full journey it says timetable unconfirmed. That sounds incorrect I'd I can get the first portion.

Friday 22 September has been opened for reservations on both EMR and SE, so you can book an Advance ticket from Gravesend to Sheffield.
Sunday 24 September has not been opened for reservations on SE, so you cannot book an Advance ticket from Sheffield to Gravesend.

You may need to wait only a week; or you may need to wait for several weeks. Weekends are not always opened for reservation as far ahead as weekdays, owing to timetable uncertainties.

 

[PavlosA]

Thank you. With the time difference I guess that means if I wait, the cheapest advances for the Sheffield to London could disappear? Or when the SE reservations are opened would that be a brand new batch of Sheffield to Gravesend tickets?

Also, if I book the Sheffield to London portion, would there be advances released for the London to Gravesend portion separately by SE?

I guess my question is, if you can get an advance the whole way for a particular journey involving tow legs (or two TOCs) does it always follow that there will be advances separately for the two legs?

 

[alistairlees]

Thank you. With the time difference I guess that means if I wait, the cheapest advances for the Sheffield to London could disappear? Or when the SE reservations are opened would that be a brand new batch of Sheffield to Gravesend tickets?

The longer you have to wait, the more chance of a higher price for Sheffield to Gravesend Advance tickets, because the lowest-priced Advance ticket tiers for Sheffield to London on EMR have already sold out. You will just have to keep an eye on things and calculate your appetite for risk.

Also, if I book the Sheffield to London portion, would there be advances released for the London to Gravesend portion separately by SE?

No, because they (Advance tickets from London to Gravesend) don't exist, as I have previously said.

I guess my question is, if you can get an advance the whole way for a particular journey involving tow legs (or two TOCs) does it always follow that there will be advances separately for the two legs?

No, it doesn't.