Will Open Access Operators return?

[Trogladyte]

Do we expect Open Access operators to survive this pandemic? Or can you see their services being absorbed into the franchise operators?

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Do we expect Open Access operators to survive this pandemic? Or can you see their services being absorbed into the franchise operators?

Yes i suspect they will return. Hull trains i think is planning to make a return.

 

[ainsworth74]

They'll be back as long as their backers (FirstGroup and Arriva) are happy to cover any of their ongoing losses and start up costs. I'm not sure there's anything to suggest so far that either of them are planning on pulling the financial plug currently!

 

[800002]

One would presume that the patent backers of the open access operations currently on hold / suspension are able to qualify for government backing / contingency / business continuity loans?
Having furloughed their staff rather than making redundancies, they shouldn't be taking the full operating loss on not running services.

Also, presumably, (I'm sure there could be a thread on this somewhere here on RF) that they won't be paying track access charges currently, given that they have nothing running on the metal work?

 

[Clarence Yard]

They only qualify for the furlough scheme for their staff and they don't pay any track access charges if they are not running services. All other fixed costs, such as train leases, they are still liable for.

They will be back.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Paying for brand new class 802s to sit idle won't be cheap.
For First Group, TPE, as a franchise, will be able to pass the cost on to DfT (for which there will come a day of reckoning).
However Hull Trains won't be able to do the same with its similar fleet.
Presumably Arriva/GC will be paying less for its older fleets.

 

[JonathanH]

I had an email with a survey from Grand Central regarding a restart yesterday.

The current COVID-19 restrictions have been deeply felt across UK society and the economy, and Grand Central temporarily paused services last month. To help us prepare for the future, we’d like to invite you to complete our survey and tell us what your plans are for getting moving with Grand Central once restrictions are reduced or lifted, so that we can plan a service that’s right for you.

It would be great if as many of our customers as possible could complete this survey - by taking part, it will help us understand how our customers will respond when lock down is reversed and how we can help you feel comfortable to start travelling again. The survey is totally anonymous and should only take a few minutes of your time.

The overall results from the survey will be shared via Grand Central’s media channels, including our website and our Facebook pages once they are available. Most importantly, they’ll help us to deliver a service that meets your needs once restrictions begin to get lifted.

I’d like to thank each of you that have been following Government advice to stay at home and only travel if it is essential to do so, and we look forward to welcoming you back on Grand Central in the future.

 

[JonathanH]

Paying for brand new class 802s to sit idle won't be cheap.
For First Group, TPE, as a franchise, will be able to pass the cost on to DfT (for which there will come a day of reckoning).
However Hull Trains won't be able to do the same with its similar fleet.
Presumably Arriva/GC will be paying less for its older fleets.

Presumably there would be some sort of break clause in the Hull Trains 802 contract, even if they have to pay for them until 2029 when the track access rights end. Yes, First Group would have to pay for them until that breakpoint unless they could sublease them, which seems unlikely, but it could still be sending good money after bad if they return to operation. They could simply reach an agreement with the lessor to pull out of using them.

 

[Bald Rick]

They'll be back as long as their backers (FirstGroup and Arriva) are happy to cover any of their ongoing losses and start up costs.

Is the right answer. Although if demand falls significantly, expect retrenchment which will be difficult to undo.

It is, however, very different for ‘new’ open access aspirants that do not have the backing of a major corporation like Hull and GC do. Regular readers will know wha5 I mean.

 

[Trogladyte]

If they fail would franchises potentially take over their services or even take their staff on I wonder

 

[westv]

Presumably there would be some sort of break clause in the Hull Trains 802 contract, even if they have to pay for them until 2029 when the track access rights end. Yes, First Group would have to pay for them until that breakpoint unless they could sublease them, which seems unlikely, but it could still be sending good money after bad if they return to operation. They could simply reach an agreement with the lessor to pull out of using them.

What on earth would they use instead?

 

[Bletchleyite]

What on earth would they use instead?

442s?

I think the suggestion was withdrawing it, though. I'm sure someone else (GWR, LNER or TPE) would take the units.

 

[TheJRB]

Long term demand for the OA operators (especially the future First London-Scotland route) is probably going to be increased in the light of reduced demand for air travel I reckon, given its hard to tell how much of the domestic flight market is ever going to return.

 

[Bald Rick]

Long term demand for the OA operators (especially the future First London-Scotland route) is probably going to be increased in the light of reduced demand for air travel I reckon, given its hard to tell how much of the domestic flight market is ever going to return.

If long term domestic air demand is down, so will long term long distance rail demand.

 

[TheJRB]

If long term domestic air demand is down, so will long term long distance rail demand.

True but I guess what I mean is that demand will outstrip supply when it comes to domestic air travel, especially in light of the collapse of Flybe and the unknown quantity of what BA, Easyjet and Ryanair will offer post lockdown.

I’m sure I heard something about there being a ban on internal flights under a certain length in France in favour of TGVs so not inconceivable we could have a similar policy one day.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I’m sure I heard something about there being a ban on internal flights under a certain length in France in favour of TGVs so not inconceivable we could have a similar policy one day.

I see a very weak case indeed for London-Manchester and London-Glasgow/Edinburgh flights, and a similarly poor one for Newquay. The train journey times are already good and with HS2 will get even better. Birmingham-Glasgow/Edinburgh also weak. What would help is train-plane codesharing on a through ticket, which really wouldn't be hard.

London-Inverness/Aberdeen and the Scottish Highland/Island internal flights are probably needed and that need won't go away any time soon. And obviously the Isle of Man and the likes are needed but aren't technically domestic anyway even if there is an immigration union in place.

I would very much like to see XC properly improved so the Southampton based flights won't need to come back. I think I'll start a new (non-COVID-forum) thread on that.

 

[TheJRB]

I see a very weak case indeed for London-Manchester and London-Glasgow/Edinburgh flights, and a similarly poor one for Newquay. The train journey times are already good and with HS2 will get even better. Birmingham-Glasgow/Edinburgh also weak. What would help is train-plane codesharing on a through ticket, which really wouldn't be hard.

London-Inverness/Aberdeen and the Scottish Highland/Island internal flights are probably needed and that need won't go away any time soon. And obviously the Isle of Man and the likes are needed but aren't technically domestic anyway even if there is an immigration union in place.

I would very much like to see XC properly improved so the Southampton based flights won't need to come back. I think I'll start a new (non-COVID-forum) thread on that.

Thoroughly agreed. Seeing how Lufthansa do it with DB for ICEs appears to work well. I for one would love to see XC return to being more of a widespread intercity operation with daily extensions to various places - not really been seen as viable so far I don’t suppose but things like this might one day change that fortune. Lots of scope for speculation and rumination...

 

[Bald Rick]

True but I guess what I mean is that demand will outstrip supply when it comes to domestic air travel, especially in light of the collapse of Flybe and the unknown quantity of what BA, Easyjet and Ryanair will offer post lockdown.

I’m sure I heard something about there being a ban on internal flights under a certain length in France in favour of TGVs so not inconceivable we could have a similar policy one day.

The French have not banned internal flights under a certain length. They have banned the sale of domestic only tickets on domestic Air France flights where there is a practical rail alternative that takes less than 2h30. Were we to do the same here, there would be, on average, an extra 2 people on each LNER service, and 6 people on each Avanti Manchester service.

Ryanair don’t do much domestic, it’s all BA, Easyjet and to a small extent Loganair. The first two will be back, strong as ever. But, even if they weren’t, and every Edinburgh - London Air passenger decamped to the railway, over a third of them would fit on First’s OA services alone.

 

[Huntergreed]

Once this is over I would hope that this would promote a move from domestic air to rail travel. Hopefully flights could be utilised for international journeys and I would hope the significant improvements and changes coming to the rail industry would entice passengers back on track and, although initial fear/reluctance is expected, once people grow out of this I expect we’ll see a resurgence.