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Do you think that the UK switching to electric vehicles is realistic?

The Ham

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If people only cared about their "average" one person commute they'd buy mopeds. But they like to do stuff at the weekend too.

Which is why car club caes are a useful addition to allow access to a car or cars when there's a need.

Some companies claim that each car club vehicle can replace the need for 18 owned cars.
 
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RailUK Forums

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Which is why cat club caes are a useful addition to allow access to a car or cars when there's a need.

Some companies claim that each car club vehicle can replace the need for 18 owned cars.
They'd be more appealing if using them a few times year didn't cost more than just having a banger sitting on your drive
 

The Ham

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They'd be more appealing if using them a few times year didn't cost more than just having a banger sitting on your drive

How much does a banger cost per year? I suspect more than most people think.

£250 for insurance, £150 for VED, £300 for depreciation (£3,000 for 10 years use), £300 for fuel (circa 2,000 miles) and £150 for MOT, service & maintenance - that's £1,050.

At £35 a time (a lower end day rate) that's still 35 uses (at £8/hour that's 130 hours of driving, which allow an average speed of 15mph to cover the 2,000 miles).
 

JamesT

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How much does a banger cost per year? I suspect more than most people think.

£250 for insurance, £150 for VED, £300 for depreciation (£3,000 for 10 years use), £300 for fuel (circa 2,000 miles) and £150 for MOT, service & maintenance - that's £1,050.

At £35 a time (a lower end day rate) that's still 35 uses (at £8/hour that's 130 hours of driving, which allow an average speed of 15mph to cover the 2,000 miles).
You’ve got a very cheap car club near you then.
Co-wheels in Oxford is £44/52/59 per day depending on the size of car, plus 23p/mile.
So if you manage those 2,000 miles, you’ve got just over 13 days to do it in a city car before you hit the running costs of the banger.
 

SargeNpton

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How much does a banger cost per year? I suspect more than most people think.

£250 for insurance, £150 for VED, £300 for depreciation (£3,000 for 10 years use), £300 for fuel (circa 2,000 miles) and £150 for MOT, service & maintenance - that's £1,050.

At £35 a time (a lower end day rate) that's still 35 uses (at £8/hour that's 130 hours of driving, which allow an average speed of 15mph to cover the 2,000 miles).
The banger outside your house needs no pre-booking so can be used spontaneously as and when the need arises. As it's post-depreciation value is very little the odd scrape (whether your fault or that of somebody else) is not going to result in you having to cough up for repairs.

Add to that the convenience factor - it does, in many cases, outweigh the financial advantages of being in a car club.
 

jon0844

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But that banger might not start up one day, or you are lacking some of the safety features or creature comforts a modern car has. For a short trip, at moderate speeds, you may not care about that of course.

Likewise, I looked into short term car rentals and the pricing was too high and also required a long trip to get the car in the first place (and walk home after returning it). Some places, like cities, may of course make this a lot easier and cheaper.

I've had 'cheap' runaround over the years but today I'd expect more than I did then. The cost of fuel and insurance etc also means there's really no such thing as a super cheap car unless you simply scrap it as soon as anything goes wrong.
 

bspahh

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You’ve got a very cheap car club near you then.
Co-wheels in Oxford is £44/52/59 per day depending on the size of car, plus 23p/mile.
So if you manage those 2,000 miles, you’ve got just over 13 days to do it in a city car before you hit the running costs of the banger.
ZipCar in Cambridge has two plans:
  • Basic: £9/hr or £85/day, 60 miles included. 29p/mile after that. £15 to join (used as driving credit).
  • Smart: £9/hr or £68/day to hire. "Lower" driving rates. £6 a month (used as driving credit).
The daily rates look particularly expensive to me.

I wonder why it says that membership includes "Third party insurance", when their FAQ What's Included with my Booking says:
Every member who follows the rules is covered by our insurance whilst driving a Zipcar:
  • Comprehensive collision coverage
  • Third-party property damage coverage up to £20,000,000 when driving cars and up to £10,000,000 when driving vans
  • Unlimited coverage for third-party bodily injury
  • Members are responsible for a £1,000 damage fee (£1,500 for higher-risk members) per incident, which can be reduced or eliminated with an optional damage fee waiver
If a member would like some additional cover, they can purchase Damage protection
 

jon0844

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As we discuss EV charging prices, I saw this video on YouTube.


EV Charging - Why are fast chargers so ridiculously expensive?
 

cactustwirly

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How much does a banger cost per year? I suspect more than most people think.

£250 for insurance, £150 for VED, £300 for depreciation (£3,000 for 10 years use), £300 for fuel (circa 2,000 miles) and £150 for MOT, service & maintenance - that's £1,050.

At £35 a time (a lower end day rate) that's still 35 uses (at £8/hour that's 130 hours of driving, which allow an average speed of 15mph to cover the 2,000 miles).
Why is there a depreciation figure? It will be fully depreciated surely?

Whatever car you have you still have to pay for VED, insurance and an MOT
 

AM9

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Why is there a depreciation figure? It will be fully depreciated surely?

Whatever car you have you still have to pay for VED, insurance and an MOT
Even bangers aren't free, well not if you expect it to run at all). VED is generally much less or an EV than an ICV.
 

jon0844

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so spend £60K on a car then not use it. Hmmm
I will stick with my 10 plate pug diesel ta. I do little mileage anyway.

Not use it as much. But it's a free country, so if you want to use your £60k car all the time then you do you.

Just don't complain about traffic or problems finding parking!
 

JamesT

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Why is there a depreciation figure? It will be fully depreciated surely?

Whatever car you have you still have to pay for VED, insurance and an MOT
They were comparisons with the costs of using a car club. Where most of these costs get bundled into the hire charges. Though it looks like the car club costings were rather underdone.

I have a colleague that's been doing similar calculations as their current car is getting towards the expensive to run part of its life so time to consider changing. They'd like to go essentially car free, they don't need one most of the time. But when you have semi-regular trips needing a car (e.g. taking child to play football in matches around the county), it doesn't seem to take long before owning becomes cheaper than renting.
 

jon0844

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That's exactly where we are. The car is mostly to/from football matches and training (matches all over and often 9am on a Sunday), and shopping. For everything else we can walk, cycle or use public transport.

We could get all shopping delivered and then almost never need a car.

If not for the sport trips, we might even be better off just getting taxis all the time - but taxis aren't always going to be easy to get, and they can also refuse to carry someone covered in mud after a game.

So I get that people often need to keep a car, including spontaneous travel trips, but using it less should be a goal. A lot of people simply can't comprehend this as they've allowed themselves to become car dependant.

To keep on topic, many people in this position don't want or need a SUV EV. They want a smaller car where range isn't even such an issue (especially if said smaller car offers fast charging for those rare long trips that require charging mid-journey).
 

The Ham

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You’ve got a very cheap car club near you then.
Co-wheels in Oxford is £44/52/59 per day depending on the size of car, plus 23p/mile.
So if you manage those 2,000 miles, you’ve got just over 13 days to do it in a city car before you hit the running costs of the banger.

OK, maybe I was a bit optimistic about the cost with some car club vehicles, however car hire costs do start at £38 for a hire car for tomorrow for a Corsa (or similar), there's slightly cheaper for an Aygo, however it should be noted that I was reply to the point about it being only a few times a year:

They'd be more appealing if using them a few times year didn't cost more than just having a banger sitting on your drive

Although, in my defence I was also slightly optimistic about costs for the banger, for example a £3,000 car lasting 10 years with maintenance costs of £150 a year (including an MOT which is often £55 of that) add in £45/year average for tyres and a bit more for oil, screenwash, wiperblades and other minor costs and that doesn't leave you much (if anything) for anything like a new battery (which will almost certainly fail once during 10 years), new air filters, brakes, bulbs (again a full set is fairly likely during 10 years), or any other of those sorts of things, let alone something more major (like a spring, belt or clutch).

It also assumes you're doing all that maintenance yourself.

It also doesn't allow for breakdown cover (which is probably not too big a deal if you're only doing 2,000 miles and can maintain everything yourself).

It also assumes that you have somewhere you can park the car for free (which given the level of discussion about people not being able to charge there cars at home nectar is this is a factor for at least some people, even if it's not as many as those who would have issues charging their cars), which could also add costs.
 

trebor79

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The extra expense for DC public charging can be chalked up in part to the extra expense of the charger and installation - there's still a lot of R&D to be paid off there. I'd expect public charging costs to rise at a lower rate than general energy costs for a few years as competition sets in.
Nah, it can mostly be chalked up to CPOs having to jack the prices up when the electricity price went ballistic,then realising that the captive audience has to pay through the nose and keeping the prices there. Before Putin's little adventure rapid charging was a fraction of the price it is now, bar Tesla.
There's nothing particularly clever about a DC charger. It's just some power electronics and a very rudimentary comms protocol in a pretty box with a card reader and screen.
 

jon0844

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But the bigger cabinets look extremely expensive to the untrained eye, and if you add fancy lights then surely it becomes justified to charge 85p per kWh!

FWIW I accept there are costs to build a new site, but it does seem companies are being somewhat greedy and wanting to pay back the capital cost in a somewhat unrealistic time frame. I do hope people boycott the super expensive ones.

I know I would, just as I won't ever fill up at a motorway services or JP, Shell, Esso charging 6-10p a litre more than a supermarket.
 

Noddy

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I know I would, just as I won't ever fill up at a motorway services or JP, Shell, Esso charging 6-10p a litre more than a supermarket.

Interestingly Sainsbury’s new charging network (Smart Charge) is charging 75p per kWh. This is 10p cheaper than Instavolt (for example) but still more than Westmorland Charging (64p at Tebay/Gloucester/Cairn Lodge motorway services), EvPoint (65p), FastNed (69p), and Ionity (71p), and only 2p less than motorway service provider AppleGreen (77p at Welcome Break services). Given that Sainsbury’s aren’t paying costs for getting grid connections as their supermarket sites already have high powered connections they are tapping into, or any sort of rent/land costs, either the costs of setting up a charging network are high and these other networks (which typically are having to pay for grid connections and to purchase/lease land) are charging a fair price in the current market, or it’s Sainsbury’s that really are price gouging.
 
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Roast Veg

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Nah, it can mostly be chalked up to CPOs having to jack the prices up when the electricity price went ballistic,then realising that the captive audience has to pay through the nose and keeping the prices there. Before Putin's little adventure rapid charging was a fraction of the price it is now, bar Tesla.
There's nothing particularly clever about a DC charger. It's just some power electronics and a very rudimentary comms protocol in a pretty box with a card reader and screen.

But the bigger cabinets look extremely expensive to the untrained eye, and if you add fancy lights then surely it becomes justified to charge 85p per kWh!
The DC message set for ISO15118-2 is notably more complicated than the AC message set, with more disasterous consequences for error. I'm responsible for implementing the "rudimentary protocol" for both AC and DC, and we charge a lot more for DC!
 

jon0844

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Interestingly Sainsbury’s new charging network (Smart Charge) is charging 75p per kWh. This is 10p cheaper than Instavolt (for example) but still more than Westmorland Charging (64p at Tebay/Gloucester/Cairn Lodge motorway services), EvPoint (65p), FastNed (69p), and Ionity (71p), and only 2p less than motorway service provider AppleGreen (77p at Welcome Break services). Given that Sainsbury’s aren’t paying costs for getting grid connections as their supermarket sites already have high powered connections they are tapping into, or any sort of rent/land costs, either the costs of setting up a charging network are high and these other networks (which typically are having to pay for grid connections and to purchase/lease land) are charging a fair price in the current market, or it’s Sainsbury’s that really are price gouging.
Sadly the supermarkets seem to be just renting out an area of car park for a third party to come in and install/run the charging service so they probably have very little say in the cost. Indeed, they might be incentivised to charge more to get paid more.

And now we have them selling off their petrol stations, so in due course I expect they'll all start price gouging.

Ultimately it will likely need some sort of regulating, or people voting with their wallet.
 

Noddy

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Sadly the supermarkets seem to be just renting out an area of car park for a third party to come in and install/run the charging service so they probably have very little say in the cost. Indeed, they might be incentivised to charge more to get paid more.

And now we have them selling off their petrol stations, so in due course I expect they'll all start price gouging.

Ultimately it will likely need some sort of regulating, or people voting with their wallet.

No, that’s not what is happening in the case of Sainsbury’s. They have set up their own dedicated charging brand called Smart Charge: https://www.about.sainsburys.co.uk/...nsburys-ultra-rapid-electric-vehicle-charging

So there are no third party cost implications for Sainsbury’s unlike for the other charge point operators which typically have to deal with paying for getting high powered grid connections (as I say Sainsbury’s are using spare capacity in their existing sites), or rents/land purchases. So either they are gouging, or 65-75p is a fair market price.
 

jon0844

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I'm actually disappointed that they're charging that then if they have full control.

But it does seem to me that all the various companies are settling on high prices, and if people are paying then they'll clearly assume it to be a fair price.
 

skyhigh

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Sadly the supermarkets seem to be just renting out an area of car park for a third party to come in
No, that’s not what is happening in the case of Sainsbury’s.
Or Morrisons - their new EV hubs will be built by MFG, which is under the ownership of the same company (Clayton, Dubilier & Rice). Asda have also ended their contract with BP and it's rumoured that EuroGarages (again under the same ownership as Asda) will be replacing them.
 

E27007

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To see the dilemma facing the UK volume car industry over ZEVs, please access the .gov website and study the ZEV mandate.
The Govt ZEV mandate imposes upon car makers a rising year-by-year target for the minimum % of their sales which are ZEVs.
For 2024 the target is 22% ZEV, for 2025 28%. non-compliance is a very sharply-pointed penalty of £15,000 per vehicle for the shortfall number.

The ZEV target rises year-by-year by 5 %-points (round numbers) 2024 to 2027, from 2027 the change is a dramatic 14 %-points per year.
2027 target 38%, 2028 52%, 2029 66%.


Govt ZEV mandate "The uptake targets for zero emission cars are, therefore, the following:"


Figures released by SMMT for UK ZEV sales are suggesting the target of 22% for the current year 2024 may not be met, noting the penalties of £15000 per car.

If the take-up of ZEV cars too low to make mandate targets ( we cannot be forced to buy ZEV) will car makers begin a policy of constraining sales of non-ZEV cars for the purpose of avoiding the £15000 / car penalty?
 
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Class 317

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To see the dilemma facing the UK volume car industry over ZEVs, please access the .gov website and study the ZEV mandate.
The Govt ZEV mandate imposes upon car makers a rising year-by-year target for the minimum % of their sales which are ZEVs.
For 2024 the target is 22% ZEV, for 2025 28%. non-compliance is a very sharply-pointed penalty of £15,000 per vehicle for the shortfall number.

The ZEV target rises year-by-year by 5 %-points (round numbers) 2024 to 2027, from 2027 the change is a dramatic 14 %-points per year.
2027 target 38%, 2028 52%, 2029 66%.


Govt ZEV mandate "The uptake targets for zero emission cars are, therefore, the following:"


Figures released by SMMT for UK ZEV sales are suggesting the target of 22% for the current year 2024 may not be met, noting the penalties of £15000 per car.

If the take-up of ZEV cars too low to make mandate targets ( we cannot be forced to buy ZEV) will car makers begin a policy of constraining sales of non-ZEV cars for the purpose of avoiding the £15000 / car penalty?
My company has seen an increase in proposals we have been asked to look at for fleet replacements in the commercial sector with EV delivery vans. One particular manufacturer who I can't name is offering substantial support to this end to offset slightly lower than forecast EV car sales.

I actually think BEV will recover later this year as more lower price models go on sale.
 

The Ham

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To see the dilemma facing the UK volume car industry over ZEVs, please access the .gov website and study the ZEV mandate.
The Govt ZEV mandate imposes upon car makers a rising year-by-year target for the minimum % of their sales which are ZEVs.
For 2024 the target is 22% ZEV, for 2025 28%. non-compliance is a very sharply-pointed penalty of £15,000 per vehicle for the shortfall number.

The ZEV target rises year-by-year by 5 %-points (round numbers) 2024 to 2027, from 2027 the change is a dramatic 14 %-points per year.
2027 target 38%, 2028 52%, 2029 66%.


Govt ZEV mandate "The uptake targets for zero emission cars are, therefore, the following:"


Figures released by SMMT for UK ZEV sales are suggesting the target of 22% for the current year 2024 may not be met, noting the penalties of £15000 per car.

If the take-up of ZEV cars too low to make mandate targets ( we cannot be forced to buy ZEV) will car makers begin a policy of constraining sales of non-ZEV cars for the purpose of avoiding the £15000 / car penalty?

Although, if I'm understanding the document correctly, there's scope to bank over provision and borrow where there under provision, they can also earn extra credits from car clubs (+0.5 per car owned for 18 months) and they can pool across groups (like VAG).

As such there's a fairly good chance that by year end the market share won't be 22%, however few penalties will be applied.

In future years some of those benefits disappear, however one thing which may happen is that there's an increase in car club vehicles. Simply, if by selling 2 BEV's to a car club saves £30,000 in fines, yet the value of the car at the end of the time is still (say) 65% of the starting price, then it's cost effective to "sell" a car with a list price of £30,000 to a car club for £20,000 with the car club being able to sell the car at the end of the 18 months for £19,500. The manufacturer saves £5,000 in fines per car, the car club has very little risk, as even if that individual car doesn't make enough across all their locations they'll more than cover their costs and more people would have access to a car club vehicle.

Whilst the latter may seam counterintuitive, in that it's may reduce the overall number of vehicles sold, there's few things it could deal with.

Firstly fleet sales are more likely to be BEV's, so removing a few personal sales actually may increase the percentage of BEV's in the market share.

It makes owning an EV more attractive, in that many of those who are worried about their car having a flat battery in an emergency will have an option to still get where they need to go.

Likewise, those who need to do stupid miles once a year could have a low range car for and just hire one for their longer trip.

Finally, it may boost EV sales as more people could try an EV for (say) 3 hours fairly easily and it cost them £30.
 

trebor79

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Finally, it may boost EV sales as more people could try an EV for (say) 3 hours fairly easily and it cost them £30.
And that's exactly what converted me to EVs. Hired a BMW i3 for a day from Co-wheels car club during a work trip to Glasgow.
 

E27007

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Although, if I'm understanding the document correctly, there's scope to bank over provision and borrow where there under provision, they can also earn extra credits from car clubs (+0.5 per car owned for 18 months) and they can pool across groups (like VAG).

As such there's a fairly good chance that by year end the market share won't be 22%, however few penalties will be applied.

In future years some of those benefits disappear, however one thing which may happen is that there's an increase in car club vehicles. Simply, if by selling 2 BEV's to a car club saves £30,000 in fines, yet the value of the car at the end of the time is still (say) 65% of the starting price, then it's cost effective to "sell" a car with a list price of £30,000 to a car club for £20,000 with the car club being able to sell the car at the end of the 18 months for £19,500. The manufacturer saves £5,000 in fines per car, the car club has very little risk, as even if that individual car doesn't make enough across all their locations they'll more than cover their costs and more people would have access to a car club vehicle.

Whilst the latter may seam counterintuitive, in that it's may reduce the overall number of vehicles sold, there's few things it could deal with.

Firstly fleet sales are more likely to be BEV's, so removing a few personal sales actually may increase the percentage of BEV's in the market share.

It makes owning an EV more attractive, in that many of those who are worried about their car having a flat battery in a

My company has seen an increase in proposals we have been asked to look at for fleet replacements in the commercial sector with EV delivery vans. One particular manufacturer who I can't name is offering substantial support to this end to offset slightly lower than forecast EV car sales.
Your post may explain the below-forecast ratio (1 in 6 private) of private to business sales of ZEV reported by SMMT for 2024 ZEV sales.
The makers are focussed on business fleet sales to achieve volume to meet the ZEV mandate target.
The ZEV sales volume scenario must be keeping a number of economists busy with "What If" calculations of price/supply/demand graphs and charts.
In the case of a manucturer who sales are entirely IC ,(no ZEVs at all) the penalty for non-compliance of the 2024 target of 22% ZEV may be (22 x £15000 = £330,000) per 100 cars.
£330,000 amortised over 100 IC cars is £3300 per car, £3300 built-in to retail price/cost of manufacture of the car which maybe tolerated by the "discerning" car buyer with a lot of money to spend.
 
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Noddy

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Your post may explain the below-forecast ratio (1 in 6 private) of private to business sales of ZEV reported by SMMT for 2024 ZEV sales.
The makers are focussed on business fleet sales to achieve volume to meet the ZEV mandate target.
The ZEV price / supply / demand scenario must be keeping a number of economists busy.
In the case of a manucturer who sales are entirely IC ,(no ZEVs at all) the penalty for non-compliance of the 2024 target of 22% ZEV may be (22 x £15000 = £330,000) per 100 cars.
£330,000 amortised over 100 IC cars is £3300 per car, £3300 built-in to retail price/cost of manufacture of the car which maybe tolerated by the "discerning" car buyer with a lot of money to spend.

As I stated previously (post 3089) no manufacturers will be paying fines this year unless they are crazy. They will just bank their allowances from later years or trade with other manufacturers which are selling more than 22% (such as Tesla or BYD which are already at 100%).

Are the any manufacturers that are 100% ICE?
 
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The Ham

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Your post may explain the below-forecast ratio (1 in 6 private) of private to business sales of ZEV reported by SMMT for 2024 ZEV sales.
The makers are focussed on business fleet sales to achieve volume to meet the ZEV mandate target.
The ZEV sales volume scenario must be keeping a number of economists busy with "What If" calculations of price/supply/demand graphs and charts.
In the case of a manucturer who sales are entirely IC ,(no ZEVs at all) the penalty for non-compliance of the 2024 target of 22% ZEV may be (22 x £15000 = £330,000) per 100 cars.
£330,000 amortised over 100 IC cars is £3300 per car, £3300 built-in to retail price/cost of manufacture of the car which maybe tolerated by the "discerning" car buyer with a lot of money to spend.

Maybe this year and need, but the numbers start getting quite large as time moves forwards.

Although, for smaller numbers of sales (less than 1,000 per year) there are exceptions.
 

Bald Rick

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I’m quite surprised at the sales numbers. At least half of all 24 plate cars I am seeing are EVs. And it’s not just because I live in Hertfordshire, this is my observation all over the country. I do accelt that official numbers are more reliable than the BR eyeball though.
 

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