East-West Rail (EWR): Consultation updates [not speculation]

[tspaul26]

Indeed- in terms of public awareness, the likes of Cambridge Approaches and CamBedRailRoad are well ahead of EWR. But ass we've seen on multiple occasions, false claims and scare stories can beat truth and logic.

The consultation feedback analysis has made for some interesting reading for me so far this week - the NIMBY groups might not have been as effective in their campaigns as they might have hoped.

I know that a lot of the parish councils to the north and northwest of Cambridge were not happy with the local MP a few months ago for appearing to be pandering to the Cambridge Approaches and CamBedRailRoad groups so I wonder how much their campaigns might have backfired by rousing opposition to their preferred alignment elsewhere.

 

[47421]

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e7e22fea84d1844d8d7b678/t/620d07a9ca64ab4bcd55d6d4/1645021098386/1644961797568.pdf

"Followingthecreationofthe‘DepartmentforLevellingUp,Housingand Communities’ (DLUHC) in September 2021, and the appointment of the Rt Hon Michael Gove MP as the new DLUHC Secretary of State, there has been a significant change in the government’s approach to the Ox Cam Arc. Following a period of uncertainty over the ensuing months, it became clear that the government does not wish to see the Ox Cam Arc as a project driven by central government."
....

"We are still awaiting updates on East West rail and the Spatial Framework"

 

[Bletchleyite]

"This train terminates at Bedford", one suspects.

 

[bspahh]

"This train terminates at Bedford", one suspects.

I think so. The PDF says:

6.While the government had officially stated that it had dropped the 1 million housing target for the Arc, in a ministerial statement by the previous Housing Minister, Chris Pincher MP (speaking in a Westminster Hall debate in July 2021), many communities continued to be cynical about this position. Now that the government will not be taking the project forward centrally, it will be up to local leaders to identify the priorities they wish to support across the Arc (if it does indeed continue as a locally led project).
7. At the Ox Cam Arc Leaders’ meeting on 28 January 2022, leaders expressed concern about the level of commitment that government may or may not make to the Arc in terms of future funding. While revenue funding has been made available to continue the ongoing operations of the Arc (ie., funding the small team of officers) there is no long term commitment to this funding, and no commitment at all to capital funding.

Without government funding, and with housing left to local politicians (who get elected by NIMBYs who don't want new housing), there will be no budget to build anything between Bedford and Cambridge.

 

[Mag_seven]

Thread reopened as a result of posts #5432 to #5434 above.

 

[A0wen]

Without government funding, and with housing left to local politicians (who get elected by NIMBYs who don't want new housing), there will be no budget to build anything between Bedford and Cambridge.

The housing would always be driven by local councils rather than centrally.

The reality is the only way the Eastern section of EWR would ever be remotely viable would be with *alot* of additional housing being built to support it - which was always likely to be opposed.

What will be built will improve connectivity between Milton Keynes and the Thames Valley, for which there is demand.

 

[Class 170101]

The housing would always be driven by local councils rather than centrally.

Except if a developer goes to appeal then its upto the Secretary of State to decide.

The reality is the only way the Eastern section of EWR would ever be remotely viable would be with *alot* of additional housing being built to support it - which was always likely to be opposed.

True but where do the homes go instead? If not supported by EWR then what infrastructure does support it?

 

[A0wen]

True but where do the homes go instead? If not supported by EWR then what infrastructure does support it?

Well, given NPR is being progressed and there's a desire to "level up", I'd suggest the north of England which is already less densely populated than the South East ?

 

[Bald Rick]

True but where do the homes go instead?

will we actually need the homes? The population isn’t rising …

 

[JamesT]

will we actually need the homes? The population isn’t rising …

COVID may have put a crimp in things, but the ONS are still projecting UK population growth over the next decade: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...ationalpopulationprojections/2020basedinterim

 

[The Ham]

The housing would always be driven by local councils rather than centrally.

Central government sets the targets for new homes, which local councils then have to deliver. Locally the local Tory Party criticised another party for a development which was being considered which could have delivered 5,000 homes. They went very quiet when I asked who was setting the target for the number of homes for the local council to deliver.

will we actually need the homes? The population isn’t rising …

Whilst the population isn't rising that doesn't mean that we don't need more homes.

There's a couple of factors which can mean that we need more homes even though the population isn't increasing (although up until fairly recently it was).

First up fewer children per family, 5 families of 7 need fewer homes than 7 families of 5.

The number of older people (who can be more likely to live alone, for instance due to being widowed/widowered), as they typically live in smaller household than younger people, they are also likely to live in larger homes than those who are younger with the same number of people in the household (as an example both my parents and my wife's parents live in 5 bedroom homes when there's just two of them, whilst their children are likely to live in smaller homes (of the 5 couples 1 has a 5 bed, 1 a 4 bed, 1 a 3 bed and 2 live in 2 beds, only those in the 2 beds have no children).

The number of people getting divorced can also have an impact on the number of homes needed, as of people don't live as a couple they may then need 2 homes rather than 1.

Even in saying that, it's still quite a simplification, however it does highlight that things are more complex than just looking at the overall population.

 

[bspahh]

Well, given NPR is being progressed and there's a desire to "level up", I'd suggest the north of England which is already less densely populated than the South East ?

There is a desire for the Conservative party to get reelected in marginal seats, in the next 2 years, where there are more in the North than Bedfordshire and Cambridgeshire.

 

[Magdalia]

"Followingthecreationofthe‘DepartmentforLevellingUp,Housingand Communities’ (DLUHC) in September 2021, and the appointment of the Rt Hon Michael Gove MP as the new DLUHC Secretary of State, there has been a significant change in the government’s approach to the Ox Cam Arc. Following a period of uncertainty over the ensuing months, it became clear that the government does not wish to see the Ox Cam Arc as a project driven by central government."

This is the lead story in this week's "Cambridge Independent". It is a hot local issue.

There is a desire for the Conservative party to get reelected in marginal seats, in the next 2 years, where there are more in the North than Bedfordshire and Cambridgeshire.

And it won't have gone away before the next General Election, unless EWR has already been stopped by then. You only have to look at the position taken by the MP for South Cambs, and the result of the Chesham and Amersham byelection, to see how this is playing out politically. The Conservatives have already lost the Cambridgeshire Mayor. The politics are further complicated by the proposed constituency boundary changes, which could create a new seat including St Neots and Cambourne.

 

[bspahh]

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/la...es-2-7bn-worth-of-future-contracts-23-05-2022 says:

The Department for Transport (DfT) is preparing to set aside almost £2.7bn to pay for contracts for the delivery of the next stages of East West Rail (EWR).
EWR is a new high-speed rail line between Oxford and Cambridge that is being overseen by East West Rail Co. (EWR Co.), an organisation specially created by the DfT, rather than Network Rail. Work is currently underway on Connection Stage 1, which is seeing the line built from Oxford to Bletchley (Milton Keynes), with a delivery date of early 2025.

The rest of the line is split into Connection Stage 2 (CS2), which will see the line extended from Bletchley to Bedford and Connection Stage 3 (CS3), which will see it taken from Bedford to Cambridge.

Previously, the funding for building CS2 and CS3 had not been assured, but the DfT has recently updated its commercial pipeline document and has outlined six forthcoming EWR contracts. These include a £676M contract for the delivery partner on CS2 and CS3 and a £1.12bn contract for civils work.

Then there is a table with 6 contracts:

Contract name	Description	Value	Procurement date	Contract commence	Contract end
Ground investigation survey framework	Procurement of Intrusive Ground Investigation Survey suppliers	£38M	01/06/22	01/12/22	20/10/30
CS2 & CS3 delivery partner	Procurement of the main DP contract, the central contract for the Design & Construction phase which will help EWR manage the other construction phase partners	£676.53M	17/11/22	30/01/24	19/12/31
Procurement of track utilties	Procurement of Track Utilities (OLE, Gas, etc)	£200M	02/05/23	01/11/23	20/09/31
Construction Phase Advanced Works Partner(s)	1 of 3 large construction partner contracts, which specialises in Advanced works	£273.72M	01/08/23	01/01/24	20/11/31
Construction Phase Main Civil Works Partner(s)	1 of 3 large construction partner contracts, which specialises in Civils works	£1.12bn	01/08/24	01/01/25	20/11/32
Construction Phase Core Rail Systems Partner(s)	1 of 3 large construction partner contracts, which specialises in Rail systems works	£381.56M	01/08/24	01/01/25	20/11/32

Whether there is funding in 2024 to start building is another question.

 

[fgwrich]

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/la...es-2-7bn-worth-of-future-contracts-23-05-2022 says:


Then there is a table with 6 contracts:

Contract name	Description	Value	Procurement date	Contract commence	Contract end
Ground investigation survey framework	Procurement of Intrusive Ground Investigation Survey suppliers	£38M	01/06/22	01/12/22	20/10/30
CS2 & CS3 delivery partner	Procurement of the main DP contract, the central contract for the Design & Construction phase which will help EWR manage the other construction phase partners	£676.53M	17/11/22	30/01/24	19/12/31
Procurement of track utilties	Procurement of Track Utilities (OLE, Gas, etc)	£200M	02/05/23	01/11/23	20/09/31
Construction Phase Advanced Works Partner(s)	1 of 3 large construction partner contracts, which specialises in Advanced works	£273.72M	01/08/23	01/01/24	20/11/31
Construction Phase Main Civil Works Partner(s)	1 of 3 large construction partner contracts, which specialises in Civils works	£1.12bn	01/08/24	01/01/25	20/11/32
Construction Phase Core Rail Systems Partner(s)	1 of 3 large construction partner contracts, which specialises in Rail systems works	£381.56M	01/08/24	01/01/25	20/11/32

Whether there is funding in 2024 to start building is another question.

So, in short, CS2 would see Bletchley to Bedford upgraded to match the rest of the Oxford - Bicester - Bletchley route?

 

[swt_passenger]

So, in short, CS2 would see Bletchley to Bedford upgraded to match the rest of the Oxford - Bicester - Bletchley route?

I think it’s quite difficult to define, but it looks that way. There are a number of bridge, crossing and station works in the approved TWA that’s currently underway, but as far as we know from posts in the construction thread nothing has been started yet.

But those limited works weren’t adequate for through running to Cambridge. So does that mean they’re abandoned and the next version of CS2 would re-design everything into one project?

 

[Baxenden Bank]

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/la...es-2-7bn-worth-of-future-contracts-23-05-2022 says:

The Department for Transport (DfT) is preparing to set aside almost £2.7bn to pay for contracts for the delivery of the next stages of East West Rail (EWR).
EWR is a new high-speed rail line between Oxford and Cambridge that is being overseen by East West Rail Co. (EWR Co.), an organisation specially created by the DfT, rather than Network Rail. Work is currently underway on Connection Stage 1, which is seeing the line built from Oxford to Bletchley (Milton Keynes), with a delivery date of early 2025.

High Speed?
As in HS1, HS2, HS Ox Cam Arc

 

[Adrian1980uk]

High Speed?
As in HS1, HS2, HS Ox Cam Arc

Something like that... High speed in 19th century

 

[fishwomp]

Something like that... High speed in 19th century

Why worry about 125mph/200mph for a 90 mile railway? I'd complain instead of the time it is taking to construct. The real journey time saving would come from opening the railway before 2032: this was promised for 2025 not that long since, and has been promised for years that have already passed.. The railway only benefits anyone when it actually opens. The speed for the whole of 2025-2032 is 0 mph..

 

[AM9]

Why worry about 125mph/200mph for a 90 mile railway? I'd complain instead of the time it is taking to construct. The real journey time saving would come from opening the railway before 2032: this was promised for 2025 not that long since, and has been promised for years that have already passed.. The railway only benefits anyone when it actually opens. The speed for the whole of 2025-2032 is 0 mph..

I doubt that speeds above 100mph will be achieved onsuch a short line anyway, - the costs (both capital and operating) of doing so would not give any useful return to the TOC or the passengers.

 

[edwin_m]

Why worry about 125mph/200mph for a 90 mile railway? I'd complain instead of the time it is taking to construct. The real journey time saving would come from opening the railway before 2032: this was promised for 2025 not that long since, and has been promised for years that have already passed.. The railway only benefits anyone when it actually opens. The speed for the whole of 2025-2032 is 0 mph..

I doubt that speeds above 100mph will be achieved onsuch a short line anyway, - the costs (both capital and operating) of doing so would not give any useful return to the TOC or the passengers.

I think the point here was that the railway was being described as high speed, probably in an official press release. Although it's probably faster than other means of travelling between places on the route, that description may confuse anyone not familiar with the proposal and may be used as ammunition by the antis.

 

[MarkyT]

I think the point here was that the railway was being described as high speed, probably in an official press release. Although it's probably faster than other means of travelling between places on the route, that description may confuse anyone not familiar with the proposal and may be used as ammunition by the antis.

In simplistic tabloid terms, all new trains are 'high speed' just as all passengers or customers are 'commuters'. I've seen Crossrail described as high speed recently and to be fair it is much quicker than old tube lines due to higher design speed in central tunnels and wider station spacing. Must be the pointy ends on the trains.

 

[Mikey C]

In simplistic tabloid terms, all new trains are 'high speed' just as all passengers or customers are 'commuters'. I've seen Crossrail described as high speed recently and to be fair it is much quicker than old tube lines due to higher design speed in central tunnels and wider station spacing. Must be the pointy ends on the trains.

In terms of "underground" lines, Crossrail is high speed. I guess context is the key.

After all a TGV train when compared to a jet plane is low speed!

 

[Baxenden Bank]

I think the point here was that the railway was being described as high speed, probably in an official press release. Although it's probably faster than other means of travelling between places on the route, that description may confuse anyone not familiar with the proposal and may be used as ammunition by the antis.

Exactly, and the publication being a civil engineering publication rather than a mainstream outlet.

 

[DaveN]

I think it’s quite difficult to define, but it looks that way. There are a number of bridge, crossing and station works in the approved TWA that’s currently underway, but as far as we know from posts in the construction thread nothing has been started yet.

But those limited works weren’t adequate for through running to Cambridge. So does that mean they’re abandoned and the next version of CS2 would re-design everything into one project?

I think it was more "Oh no, they've chosen Route E through Bedford. We'll have to rebuild the station there as soon as Oxford to Bedford starts. We better start with Oxford to Bletchley and rebuild Bedford Station before we do Bedford to Cambridge."

 

[swt_passenger]

I think it was more "Oh no, they've chosen Route E through Bedford. We'll have to rebuild the station there as soon as Oxford to Bedford starts. We better start with Oxford to Bletchley and rebuild Bedford Station before we do Bedford to Cambridge."

Yes, I agree that’s definitely another reasonable way of explaining the present situation.

 

[cle]

Is the bells and whistles Bedford station plan actually approved then?

 

[swt_passenger]

Is the bells and whistles Bedford station plan actually approved then?

I don’t think anything’s been decided yet, so no application has been made and there’s nothing to approve. There still needs to be a statutory consultation, following last years preliminary consultation.

 

[Dunnyrail]

Not even sure if a defined route has been decided Bedford - Cambridge as last time I checked the consultation was still ongoing. Though Councillors in St.Neots are getting agitated about a possible embankment/viaduct to the East of Town near Winteringham Farm housing estate that is under construction just now.

 

[camflyer]

Not even sure if a defined route has been decided Bedford - Cambridge as last time I checked the consultation was still ongoing. Though Councillors in St.Neots are getting agitated about a possible embankment/viaduct to the East of Town near Winteringham Farm housing estate that is under construction just now.

There was a consultation last year on 5 proposed route alignments. All of them had a southerly approach to Cambridge which annoyed some of the more vocal locals so I suspect that it is a long way off being decided.

I have no strong feeling about a St Neots station as I don't know the area well enough but a southern approach to Cambridge is the only one which make sense.