Election Result and Southern

[JamesTT]

Does the fact very few if any Tory MPs in areas Southern trains run through lost their seat. Show that the railway is very low down on most people's agenda?
Or does it show that the Government/DFT did a very good job of distancing themselves from the dispute?

 

[me123]

Is it more a representation that people in Southern land:
1) Are naturally more Conservative voters in the first place (so would be unlikely to sway en masse). Lots of the seats down there are very safe Conservative seats, and you'd need something catastrophic to swing them. The railways will rarely if ever provide something as big as that.
2) See the Unions as the problem rather than the politicians, therefore backing Corbyn's Labour party would be an unnatural progression to their minds?

I wouldn't dismiss the railways as being very low down on the agenda of people - the Southern commuter brigade have really been hit hard and it's certainly not a low priority for quite a lot of people down there who really have put up with quite significant disruption to their daily lives as a result of the dispute. For quite a lot of people, it's probably having a bigger immediate impact on them than our decision to leave the EU, for example.

And as for not having an effect - well Brighton Pavillion swung considerably towards the Greens who support renationalisation of the railways, and quickly surveying a handful of other seats in the area there was a strong boost for the Labour party throughout their network. Of course, this isn't out of kilter with the rest of England, but it's possible that the railways could have had some effect here. As I said, it takes more than trains to swing constituencies like these away from Conservative, but there has possibly been some effect. A lot of the safe seats are less safe now.

 

[Busaholic]

Don't forget that 'Southern land' encompasses swathes of South London as well as Surrey and Sussex. Looking at some of the results, including areas where there was an incumbent Labour or LibDem MP, it may well have been a factor in the majorities.

 

[northwichcat]

The train driver who stood against Grayling as Labour candidate got 25% of the vote. 25% for Labour in Epsom & Ewell is higher than recent elections but lower than what Labour got in 2001 and on a par with what Labour got in 1997.

 

[physics34]

Don't forget that 'Southern land' encompasses swathes of South London as well as Surrey and Sussex. Looking at some of the results, including areas where there was an incumbent Labour or LibDem MP, it may well have been a factor in the majorities.

iam hoping the results still give the govt a kick up the arse regarding the southern situation though

 

[coppercapped]

iam hoping the results still give the govt a kick up the arse regarding the southern situation though

It won't though. Where on the Government's priority list which includes such issues as:

• how to run a minority Government
• leaving the EU
• what does Brexit now mean?
• reducing the annual financial deficit to reduce the amount which has to be borrowed from abroad
• waiting times for hospital treatment
• schooling
• support for the elderly
• support for the very poor
• social care in the home for the sick and disabled
• housing shortages
• house prices
• terrorist attacks
• general crime and anti-social behaviour
• and so on
• and so forth

would you put railways?

 

[A Challenge]

It won't though. Where on the Government's priority list which includes such issues as:

• how to run a minority Government
• leaving the EU
• what does Brexit now mean?
• reducing the annual financial deficit to reduce the amount which has to be borrowed from abroad
• waiting times for hospital treatment
• schooling
• support for the elderly
• support for the very poor
• social care in the home for the sick and disabled
• housing shortages
• house prices
• terrorist attacks
• general crime and anti-social behaviour
• and so on
• and so forth

would you put railways?

Continuing

• not here
• not here
• not here
• not here
• not here
• not even here
• not even here
• not even here
• or here yet...
• railways

 

[6Gman]

There were substantial anti-government swings in a number of relevant constituencies e.g. Hove. They also lost Eastbourne to the Lib Dems.

 

[northwichcat]

iam hoping the results still give the govt a kick up the arse regarding the southern situation though

With the franchise set to end in 2021 all the election will have done is made the next franchise a 'this term' issue rather than a 'next term' issue but still don't think they'll do anything before 2020 unless Govia choose to throw in the towel.

 

[Sunset route]

There were substantial anti-government swings in a number of relevant constituencies e.g. Hove. They also lost Eastbourne to the Lib Dems.

That's more to do with no UKIP candidate (freeing up 8000 odd voters) and that the new Tory MP didn't seem to do really much for the town compared to the previous and then re-elected LibDem candidate.

I don't think transport really came into it. Although the A27 between Polegate and Lewes is often a hot potato politically at times.

 

[northwichcat]

There were substantial anti-government swings in a number of relevant constituencies e.g. Hove. They also lost Eastbourne to the Lib Dems.

Just looking and the Lib Dems got proportionally less votes in Eastbourne than when they won the seat in 2010.

Hove was only held by the Conservatives for one term. It was a Labour seat in 2005 and it went back to being Labour in 2015.

 

[Hophead]

Just looking and the Lib Dems got proportionally less votes in Eastbourne than when they won the seat in 2010.

Hove was only held by the Conservatives for one term. It was a Labour seat in 2005 and it went back to being Labour in 2015.

Antipathy towards an​ unpopular Tory incumbent counted for more in Hove, although his reluctance to speak out on the problems on Southern (or, indeed, much at all) hardly helped.

 

[infobleep]

Well it swayed my vote at least but I'm sure for most it wasn't the reason Anne Milton, Guildford lost 2.5% of the vote. That includes the fact UKIP didn't file a candidate here this time. So they didn't pick up the UKIP vote or if they did, enough left for others for her to drop 2.5%. Liberals had a big increase and overtook labour to be second.

Anne still won of course but still with a loss of vote share.

I suspect biggest issue was leaving the EU. Still for me one of the things was the railways. Not solely the railways but it was a factor.

 

[Chrisgr31]

It might have had a small affect in some constituencies, but the reality is the number of rail users as a percentage of the population is small so therefore the effect is going to be small.

 

[WatcherZero]

This is a map of the swings to Labour and Conservative in each seat, length of arrow is proportional to size of swing, bit hard to try and imagine the rail network on top though.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The train driver who stood against Grayling as Labour candidate got 25% of the vote. 25% for Labour in Epsom & Ewell is higher than recent elections but lower than what Labour got in 2001 and on a par with what Labour got in 1997.

Against that, Chris Grayling, the Transport Secretary, got 59.6% of the vote in that constituency, if you want to make comparisons.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

This is a map of the swings to Labour and Conservative in each seat, length of arrow is proportional to size of swing, bit hard to try and imagine the rail network on top though.

Labour voters on this website will note the large amount of "blue" in Scotland and in the middle of that diagram.

 

[Olaf]

Does the fact very few if any Tory MPs in areas Southern trains run through lost their seat. Show that the railway is very low down on most people's agenda?
Or does it show that the Government/DFT did a very good job of distancing themselves from the dispute?

The top is almost no existent in relation to other concerns - especially if there is a mass shake-out in the services industry arising from the fall-out of Brexit.

Apart from a vociferous core of activists, most people just want the trains to run on time with sufficient seats; that does not include nationalisation as some polls would suggest, but imposition of no-strike and minimum service level is an approach that would gain support if put forward.

 

[northwichcat]

Against that, Chris Grayling, the Transport Secretary, got 59.6% of the vote in that constituency, if you want to make comparisons.

Which is meaningless by itself as the original question relates to how much the Southern dispute affected how people voted, so that figure needs to be compared with Grayling's share before he was Transport Minister.

 

[northwichcat]

Labour voters on this website will note the large amount of "blue" in Scotland and in the middle of that diagram.

And I'm sure you've noticed all the red in your own region which is part of the reason why the Conservatives no longer have a majority.

 

[Robertj21a]

I think trying to link the Southern issues into the General Election is a bit of a non-event. As others have said, there were far bigger concerns at play on this occasion and, despite the severity of the railway issues, only a proportion of those voting would have been affected - many of whom might consider the Unions to be the problem.

 

[Busaholic]

Sadiq Khan must learn to be shameless like his predecessors Livingstone and Johnson and revisit the subject of TfL taking over at least some Southern services. When I say shameless, I mean in the sense of seeking the chink (gaping hole, more like it) in the armour and getting in there with a flashing rapier, or whatever analogy. Never a better moment - don't delay, Sadiq, let's see what you're made of.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Chris Grayling staying as Transport Sec, according to the BBC.
Plus ça change...

 

[Minstral25]

Sadiq Khan must learn to be shameless like his predecessors Livingstone and Johnson and revisit the subject of TfL taking over at least some Southern services. When I say shameless, I mean in the sense of seeking the chink (gaping hole, more like it) in the armour and getting in there with a flashing rapier, or whatever analogy. Never a better moment - don't delay, Sadiq, let's see what you're made of.

Except those of us just using Southern outside London worry a lot about TfL taking over London part leaving even less money available for the rest of the Southern services. Lack of cash within a Franchise that basically pays premiums to the government is why it is going wrong (i.e. Hidden taxation on rail users).

Anyway, Chris Grayling has as expected been reappointed to Secretary of State for Transport - will be very interesting if the poor performing Maynard goes back as well.

 

[ScotGG]

Transport may not be the main issue in elections but it's a factor in voting. Screwing over Southeastern passengers in London and NW Kent by blocking a TfL takeover and offering very little in the consultation did not help with votes and it won't help in future in seats like Eltham.

Same goes for Southern passengers. May seems like she doesn't understand why she lost in cities.

 

[Gareth Marston]

You would have to do some fuller research but having quick look through the results for the constituencies along the BML for instance whilst there was in England a gain of 4.6% for the Conservatives and 10.2% for Labour. In these constituencies the Tory vote remained static or increased marginally 1 or 2 % whilst Labour typically registered plus 10%.

Like I say fuller research is needed but it would appear that along the BML the national trend of an increase in Tory votes was bucked.

 

[al78]

May have had some effect in the worst affected places, but I suspect mostly little impact. Horsham district for example is a rock solid conservative seat, you could put a chimpanzee with a blue rosette on it and people would vote for it. I suspect the majority of voters are now hardwired to a particular political party, it is not about objective judgement but more about a sense of identity.

 

[Deepgreen]

My take on it is that the Tory vote is so deeply entrenched in most of the home counties that virtually nothing will change mind-sets there - certainly not something like a railway dispute where the majority of Tory voters will probably have sided with the company/HMG in any case, rather than the supposedly 'loony/militant left' elements.

As far as political considerations are concerned, any HMG-controlled TOCs in the area can do virtually anything they like without jeopardising votes.

 

[JamesTT]

In the areas one could argue have been most affected by the dispute. The majority of Tory MPs that retained their seats still have very healthy majorities. I refer to those who represent people living along the Coastway West and East Routes and those who live on the East Grinstead and Uckfield branch lines.

 

[Joe Paxton]

Transport may not be the main issue in elections but it's a factor in voting. Screwing over Southeastern passengers in London and NW Kent by blocking a TfL takeover and offering very little in the consultation did not help with votes and it won't help in future in seats like Eltham.

I rather suspect the majority of Southeastern Metro passengers aren't even aware of the tussle about a possible TfL takeover of their services.

... I suspect the majority of voters are now hardwired to a particular political party, it is not about objective judgement but more about a sense of identity.

I disagree, up to a point - what you describe sounds more like the situation in decades past, where political alliegience was almost tribal. Nowadays I think many more voters are prepared to consider chopping and changing the way they vote from election to election.