How does Waterloo only get 60 million passengers yet each SWR train I get is packed like sardines?

[Adrian1980uk]

Re off peak travel Is a 5-car really suitable heading out of Waterloo to Bournemouth on a Saturday? Especially 9pm onwards the trains are pretty much full but a 5 carriage train does nothing for passenger experience/comfort!

I always wonder about this, running 5 cars or 10 cars, what's the difference in cost, I'd be surprised if it's significantly different. I know it would be silly running a 12 car unit to Skegness in the middle of winter but running a 10 car instead of 5 isn't going to be double the cost particularly on driver only operation

 

[norbitonflyer]

I always wonder about this, running 5 cars or 10 cars, what's the difference in cost, I'd be surprised if it's significantly different. I know it would be silly running a 12 car unit to Skegness in the middle of winter but running a 10 car instead of 5 isn't going to be double the cost particularly on driver only operation

The cost is in maintenance.
If the second unit was not running it could be going through routine maintenance, but if it is being used it will have to have its maintenance done at another time, (when some other train will have to be short formed), or you will have to have a larger fleet.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

The cost is in maintenance.
If the second unit was not running it could be going through routine maintenance, but if it is being used it will have to have its maintenance done at another time, (when some other train will have to be short formed), or you will have to have a larger fleet.

The larger fleet cost I accept and I guess it's the nature of leasing stock rather than buying.

 

[Ken H]

The cost is in maintenance.
If the second unit was not running it could be going through routine maintenance, but if it is being used it will have to have its maintenance done at another time, (when some other train will have to be short formed), or you will have to have a larger fleet.

I think some maintenance is done by 3rd parties. The contract is for so many miles/week. Not running a unit stops extra charges for exceeding the contracted mileage. Someone here will understand the nuts and bolts of how that works and can explain.

 

[nw1]

Waterloo was at almost 100 million in 2019, now it's at approx 60 mil. Yet all the trains I've taken are packed. I rarely get a seat. Were the trains packed even tighter before?

As already implied, the cuts to services have likely outweighed the reduction in passengers on some routes.

Hopefully the introduction of the 701s might fix things.

Do they? I can believe Staines, but Walton has half-hourly semi-fasts due to adding it as an additional stop to the Alton/Basingstoke trains. Maybe my memory is wrong but I don't recall that happening in the 1980s/90s? And I thought the Cobham trains run fast between Surbiton and Wimbledon?

Of course speed comparisons with the 1980s are always going to look bad because of what I think was then SWT's decision to slow down loads of trains in order to make the timetable more reliable - if I recall correctly, sometime in the 2000's, although I can't remember exactly when. This means that places like Alton or Fleet do now have much slower trains compared to the 1980s (but not slower compared to pre-Covid).

Staines yes, because there are no limited-stop services in the peaks any more (in the past, you'd get quite a few which might only make one or two calls). In the off-peak, the only difference is a Twickenham call, which came in during the slammer era anyway, so little significant change.

Walton has a faster service due to the Basingstoke services specifically. Standard 80s pattern was half-hourly all stations service from Surbiton to Woking, going on to either Guildford or Portsmouth. Faster services to Walton came in, I believe, in 1997 when the current Woking stopper was introduced and there were, additionally, 2tph skip-stop services to Guildford calling at Walton, Weybridge and West Byfleet.

Alton has suffered quite a bit compared to the 1990s, partly due to additional stops but partly also due to a poor path approaching Woking which results in it being faster to join the xx30 Portsmouth and change. For example in 1994 the journey time for the regular off peak service was 1hr03 and in 1997 1hr02. Current timing is 1hr14 for the fastest of the 2 trains per hour. Incredibly that is slower than the mid-80s when a timing of 1hr12 was standard, including a divide at Woking with 6 minutes wait time there.

It looks like 7 diagrams are needed to work Alton these days, incidentally (though the service is not, in practice, self-contained and interworks with others) while in the 90s, just 5 were theoretically needed (again interworking took place). And this was with reasonable turnaround times, i.e >10 mins at Waterloo. I wonder, for example, whether West Byfleet could be transferred off the Altons and onto the Basingstokes, given Farnborough and Fleet at least have a fast service at xx09? (Really, the xx39 should come back too, at least as far as Basingstoke, to give the not unsizeable Farnborough/Fleet conurbation 2 fastish trains per hour).

I don't want to see it either, removing a few peak extras is all they need to do to allow increased reliability, resilience, fewer delays and more slack in the fleet. I don't want to see a spiral of decline but I only refer to cost saving because the UK will never be like Europe which subsidies its railways significantly more.

Do we really want to "remove peak extras"? There are few enough already! If anything, the trend this year, sensibly IMV, is for them to come back (see for example South Eastern, Greater Anglia).

SWR already has virtually none as it is. For mainline services, per hour there is one extra down the Portsmouth Direct and two additional Woking stoppers. End of. I hope no-one is suggesting cutting those few remaining peak services!

And the other question is: why will the UK "never" be like continental Europe? Politics change, and just because the trend in recent years has been poor relations with the continent, it doesn't mean that in future, with new governments with new ideas, we can't learn from continental European practices. If France and Germany (or wherever) can afford to subsidise their train services without going bankrupt, why can't we?

 

[Taunton]

I have commented before how in the counter-peak, outwards morning, return evening, I notice significantly more passengers using Clapham than Waterloo, sometimes to the extent of trains leaving Waterloo at 0800 near-empty, but being comfortably full leaving Clapham. It does seem a structural change in travel habits, and of course does not reflect in Waterloo figures. New Overground services to Clapham from all around the inner suburbs are possibly part of it.

 

[ComUtoR]

I always wonder about this, running 5 cars or 10 cars, what's the difference in cost, I'd be surprised if it's significantly different. I know it would be silly running a 12 car unit to Skegness in the middle of winter but running a 10 car instead of 5 isn't going to be double the cost particularly on driver only operation

I believe that Track Access charges are public but I cannot remember where I last saw them.

 

[infobleep]

Do we really want to "remove peak extras"? There are few enough already! If anything, the trend this year, sensibly IMV, is for them to come back (see for example South Eastern, Greater Anglia).

SWR already has virtually none as it is. For mainline services, per hour there is one extra down the Portsmouth Direct and two additional Woking stoppers. End of. I hope no-one is suggesting cutting those few remaining peak services!

If evening peak extras were removed there would be even less fast trains from Guildford to Clapham Junction.

Ones best opportunity to travel to Clapham Junction and changing there is on Sundays, when there is still 2 trains hour for most of the day. The timetable as written supports it. The current timetable Monday to Saturday doesn't for most hours, since the reduction in trains.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Mentioned this before - but the structural regime of the railways since 1996 makes (a) Train fleet leases often have mileage caps imposed , so if you exceed the annual target - you pay more -a factor for explaining why the old Thameslink franchise tended to run 4 cars vice 8 at weekends , despite need. (b) there is a charge for passenger calls at stations based on train length so 10 cars vice 5 clocks up more cost , for example .......

If ever there was time for some serious reforms in the industry , it is now. Some of these issues are difficult to change of course -

Add these to the usual EC4T (electric traction costs) , cleaning etc etc etc.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Just found another example of slowing down of services: Looking at my summer 1994 timetable. In those days there were 4tph to Waterloo from Epsom: A half hourly all-stops service starting at Epsom, which took 32 minutes. And then the half hourly service that alternated from either Guildford or Horsham: That one ran non-stop between Epsom and Wimbledon, taking just 24 minutes to get to Waterloo. Those fast trains have of course long since disappeared to give a more frequent service (pre-covid) to intermediate stops. And even for the stopping service - the general slowing down means that Epsom to Waterloo today takes 39 minutes despite having exactly the same stopping pattern as the 32-minute service of 30 years ago.

Alton has suffered quite a bit compared to the 1990s, partly due to additional stops but partly also due to a poor path approaching Woking which results in it being faster to join the xx30 Portsmouth and change. For example in 1994 the journey time for the regular off peak service was 1hr03 and in 1997 1hr02. Current timing is 1hr14 for the fastest of the 2 trains per hour. Incredibly that is slower than the mid-80s when a timing of 1hr12 was standard, including a divide at Woking with 6 minutes wait time there.

It looks like 7 diagrams are needed to work Alton these days, incidentally (though the service is not, in practice, self-contained and interworks with others) while in the 90s, just 5 were theoretically needed (again interworking took place). And this was with reasonable turnaround times, i.e >10 mins at Waterloo. I wonder, for example, whether West Byfleet could be transferred off the Altons and onto the Basingstokes, given Farnborough and Fleet at least have a fast service at xx09? (Really, the xx39 should come back too, at least as far as Basingstoke, to give the not unsizeable Farnborough/Fleet conurbation 2 fastish trains per hour).

Alton has definitely suffered a lot - and I notice that because that's the SWR route I use most frequently. I'm very conscious of the way the trains seem to crawl unnecessarily slowly for much of the way between Brookwood and Alton (not sure of the sense of that. I know the slower times are to make the timetable more reliable, but this is basically a semi-isolated branch with not many places trains are likely to be held up). Comparing with my 1994 timetable, I see trains have lost 5 minutes between Woking and Alton (35 minutes all stops then, 40 minutes today, although a few minutes faster for trains that skip Bentley, which wasn't at thing then. Between Waterloo and Woking, it's gone from 31/33 minutes to 37/38 minutes - although I imagine much of that is accounted for by today's extra stop at West Byfleet.

 

[nw1]

Just found another example of slowing down of services: Looking at my summer 1994 timetable. In those days there were 4tph to Waterloo from Epsom: A half hourly all-stops service starting at Epsom, which took 32 minutes. And then the half hourly service that alternated from either Guildford or Horsham: That one ran non-stop between Epsom and Wimbledon, taking just 24 minutes to get to Waterloo. Those fast trains have of course long since disappeared to give a more frequent service (pre-covid) to intermediate stops. And even for the stopping service - the general slowing down means that Epsom to Waterloo today takes 39 minutes despite having exactly the same stopping pattern as the 32-minute service of 30 years ago.

Non stop between Epsom and Wimbledon seems to have been a 90s innovation: such a thing didn't exist in the 80s. I remember also seeing that in the 1996 timetable. It does mean that Dorking has, for most of recent history, had only slow services towards London.

Alton has definitely suffered a lot - and I notice that because that's the SWR route I use most frequently. I'm very conscious of the way the trains seem to crawl unnecessarily slowly for much of the way between Brookwood and Alton (not sure of the sense of that. I know the slower times are to make the timetable more reliable, but this is basically a semi-isolated branch with not many places trains are likely to be held up). Comparing with my 1994 timetable, I see trains have lost 5 minutes between Woking and Alton (35 minutes all stops then, 40 minutes today, although a few minutes faster for trains that skip Bentley, which wasn't at thing then. Between Waterloo and Woking, it's gone from 31/33 minutes to 37/38 minutes - although I imagine much of that is accounted for by today's extra stop at West Byfleet.

It's even more marked between Waterloo and Woking. In 1997 it was done in 25 minutes (dep xx03, arr xx28 - non-stop admittedly).
In May 1994 and again in Sep 1994 according to the WTT on Network Rail it was 27 minutes with one stop at Clapham Junction.

A good few minutes of the current timings are due to a poor path between West Byfleet and Woking, and being unable to access the Woking platform immediately.

I do wonder whether if they operated a tighter timetable of the 90s type (so not ridiculously tight - few sub-10 min turnarounds at Waterloo - but a good compromise) they could operate the current service with less units and drivers and thus there might be room to bring back some of the missing peak extras?

 

[The exile]

If France and Germany (or wherever) can afford to subsidise their train services without going bankrupt, why can't we?

Even before the introduction of the Deutschlandticket, there were serious doubts in Germany as to whether they can!

 

[nw1]

Mentioned this before - but the structural regime of the railways since 1996 makes (a) Train fleet leases often have mileage caps imposed , so if you exceed the annual target - you pay more -a factor for explaining why the old Thameslink franchise tended to run 4 cars vice 8 at weekends , despite need. (b) there is a charge for passenger calls at stations based on train length so 10 cars vice 5 clocks up more cost , for example .......

If ever there was time for some serious reforms in the industry , it is now. Some of these issues are difficult to change of course -

Add these to the usual EC4T (electric traction costs) , cleaning etc etc etc.

Mind you, running shorter trains off peak definitely pre-dates 1996, it occurred during NSE days for example. It seemed to become fashionable around the time of sectorisation: I seem to remember an increase in 4-car off-peak services from around 1986, and by the late 80s / early 90s, there were many, many 4-car services off peak on mainline services.

Not necessarily a bad idea, there's nothing wrong with running short trains in the mid-day period if they're relatively lightly used. As has been discussed before, it's a compromise between keeping the mileage low and minimising ECS moves, and at various times in history one or the other has taken precedence.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I do wonder whether if they operated a tighter timetable of the 90s type (so not ridiculously tight - few sub-10 min turnarounds at Waterloo - but a good compromise) they could operate the current service with less units and drivers and thus there might be room to bring back some of the missing peak extras?

Probably not helped by the nearly half-an-hour turnaround time at Alton, which seems a huge waste of a train. I'm guessing that's mainly to do with the pathing restrictions caused by the single track between Alton and Farnham (which of course wasn't a problem back in the 1980s)

 

[nw1]

Probably not helped by the nearly half-an-hour turnaround time at Alton, which seems a huge waste of a train. I'm guessing that's mainly to do with the pathing restrictions caused by the single track between Alton and Farnham (which of course wasn't a problem back in the 1980s)

Perhaps it's a reliability thing, related to the single track. Looking at the 2012 CWN (the most recent I have), you could save one diagram by having turnaround times of 5 or 7 minutes (depending on which of the two trains in the hour) at Alton. The turnarounds in 2012 were 34 minutes (10-44) and 38(!) minutes (37-15). Theoretically the xx10 arrival could have gone out at xx15 and the xx37 at xx44.

Normally 5 minutes is deemed acceptable turnaround at the country end, but perhaps the single-track means that it's not resilient enough.

As I said, dropping West Byfleet and transferring it to the Basingstoke stoppers would presumably lead to earlier arrivals at Alton and the service could be safely run with 6 diagrams, at least. But I guess there is some reason this can't be done as otherwise they'd probably have done it by now.

 

[infobleep]

Perhaps it's a reliability thing, related to the single track. Looking at the 2012 CWN (the most recent I have), you could save one diagram by having turnaround times of 5 or 7 minutes (depending on which of the two trains in the hour) at Alton. The turnarounds in 2012 were 34 minutes (10-44) and 38(!) minutes (37-15). Theoretically the xx10 arrival could have gone out at xx15 and the xx37 at xx44.

Normally 5 minutes is deemed acceptable turnaround at the country end, but perhaps the single-track means that it's not resilient enough.

As I said, dropping West Byfleet and transferring it to the Basingstoke stoppers would presumably lead to earlier arrivals at Alton and the service could be safely run with 6 diagrams, at least. But I guess there is some reason this can't be done as otherwise they'd probably have done it by now.

I guess one only has to look at the delays that occure on the SWR single line stretches to Exeter.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

Mentioned this before - but the structural regime of the railways since 1996 makes (a) Train fleet leases often have mileage caps imposed , so if you exceed the annual target - you pay more -a factor for explaining why the old Thameslink franchise tended to run 4 cars vice 8 at weekends , despite need. (b) there is a charge for passenger calls at stations based on train length so 10 cars vice 5 clocks up more cost , for example .......

If ever there was time for some serious reforms in the industry , it is now. Some of these issues are difficult to change of course -

Add these to the usual EC4T (electric traction costs) , cleaning etc etc etc.

It does seem that TOCs contracts with ROSCOs are very restrictive and don't realise the benefits of conventional leases but yes I realise there costs and I'd probably be surprised how substantial they are.

 

[stevieinselby]

Passenger numbers are not 40% down. They're about 15-20% down. Revenue is down further because the majority of the decline is due to the loss of high yield annual season ticket revenue.

Those that still commute now rely more on day tickets. That of course also impacts weekend travel, because if they, for example, work in London, and wanted to visit for the weekend their travel would be free. Now they have to buy another ticket, or travel by other means.

Season ticket holders pay significantly less per journey than people buying individual tickets for the same journey. So if passenger numbers are down 15–20% and passengers are no longer buying season tickets then that should have less of an impact on revenue, not more!

For example, Guildford to London is £31.40 for an anytime day return, or £26 for an off-peak day return.
An annual season ticket is £4,516, which equates to £19.60 a day (based on 5 days a week, 6 weeks off)
A monthly season ticket is £433.60, which equates to £22.60 a day (on the same basis)
If you make that journey at peak times on 144 days a year, or 14 days a month, it is cheaper to buy a season ticket.

People are not just making fewer journeys but they are making different journeys now. More people travelling for leisure on off-peak or advance purchase tickets, but fewer people making peak-time journeys.

 

[Bikeman78]

Going back to 1972 the off peak service was 2 fast and 1 all stations. This was a reversal of the situation at electrification with 1 fast & 2 stoppers. I'm pretty certain this is the first time in 50 years that the off peak fast service has been just one an hour, this is despite overall UK passenger numbers and the population of the towns served being much higher then in the seventies. So objectively it's possible that the current service is the worst since the line was steam operated. These kind of cuts will not be helping to bring passengers back.

I think it was down to two trains per hour during the 1980s but definitely back up to three when the 442s ran to Portsmouth. The fourth train to Haslemere came a bit later. It's hard to believe that there is less off peak demand now than 30 years ago.

Non stop between Epsom and Wimbledon seems to have been a 90s innovation: such a thing didn't exist in the 80s. I remember also seeing that in the 1996 timetable. It does mean that Dorking has, for most of recent history, had only slow services towards London.

In 1992 it was just half hourly Waterloo to Epsom with a few peak extras or extensions to Dorking. Bookham was served by Thameslink at that time. By the late 90s it was half hourly to Dorking and half hourly to Guildford via Bookham. The Dorkings missed out a few stops between Wimbledon and Epsom.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

I think it was down to two trains per hour during the 1980s but definitely back up to three when the 442s ran to Portsmouth. The fourth train to Haslemere came a bit later. It's hard to believe that there is less off peak demand now than 30 years ago.


In 1992 it was just half hourly Waterloo to Epsom with a few peak extras or extensions to Dorking. Bookham was served by Thameslink at that time. By the late 90s it was half hourly to Dorking and half hourly to Guildford via Bookham. The Dorkings missed out a few stops between Wimbledon and Epsom.

Didn't this last into the 2000s? I regularly remember SWT local trains missing out Earlsfield back then.

 

[Bikeman78]

Didn't this last into the 2000s? I regularly remember SWT local trains missing out Earlsfield back then.

The Dorking trains missed out some stops in 2004 but by 2011 they stopped everywhere.

 

[anothertyke]

That seems to be an issue across the country, it would be an interesting research study to work out what percentage of capacity before passengers get put off. Currently on the Greater Anglia routes, peaks are comfortably full but not many more passengers before it gets uncomfortable and passengers are put off. From these forums GWR and cross-country are already at that point and maybe SWR if what's being implied here.

There have been many studies of crowding effects and the equivalent of crowding in travel time, walking,waiting and interchange. It's all in the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook.

 

[infobleep]

There have been many studies of crowding effects and the equivalent of crowding in travel time, walking,waiting and interchange. It's all in the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook.

There are more details at https://www.raildeliverygroup.com/pdfc/about-the-pdfh.html

In perticular it states

The Handbook provides guidance on applying this understanding to the preparation of forecasts for:

• investment appraisal;
• pricing decisions;
• timetabling and operating decisions;
• business planning and budgeting.

The PDFH is regularly updated, to ensure all research is both relevant and based on the latest available evidence. The latest edition, PDFH v6.0 was published in May 2018 following consultation with a wide range of industry experts and, in addition to revisions to the guidance to reflect recent research findings, the new version was also designed to be more user-friendly enabling relevant information to be accessed easily.

The PDFH is provided to all Full and Associate members purely as a web-based version created as part of the 2013 update.

You will be pleased to note it is updated regular and the last update was in May 2018, 6 years ago.

Still, whe. You consider how old the earth is. 6 years is nothing.

 

[ThameslinkUser]

To be fair, regularly only means at regular intervals. If the intervals are ever 10 years, so be it...

 

[Class 170101]

No, they need to go back to a 2019 timetable mid-week.

Can't happen SWR don't have the Rolling Stock to do this.

The point about subsidy is valid, but it’s a function of the choices of successive governments. There’s no intrinsic reason why we shouldn’t subsidise our public services to a greater extent. We often moan about how poor our services seem compared to other European countries but there’s a big element of getting what we pay for.

But can I put your tax up? Probably not. People want Scandivian service standards at US / UK tax levels.

One issue is always the railway doesn’t have the capacity to be able to change rolling stock schedules quick enough on account of the weather! You might get an influx of people at relatively short notice. Also most TOCs still have maintenance schedules which require fewer units running on Saturday and Sunday.

Perhaps Control could do something but I expect thats unlikely to happen why schedule services using a spare crew when you could send them home early in return for a favour later on.

 

[Fazaar1889]

Can't happen SWR don't have the Rolling Stock to do this

How?

 

[infobleep]

How?

By having access to less rolling stock than they did in 2019 I guess.

 

[Class 170101]

How?

By having access to less rolling stock than they did in 2019 I guess.

Yes, Class 442s, 455s, 456s being sent off lease / scrap. Class 707s heading to South Eastern and not replaced (as yet).

 

[norbitonflyer]

How?

455s - nine out of 91 withdrawn as out of hours (although I can't find a recent update on how many) .
458s - about half the fleet of 36 gone for conversion, none back in service yet
707s - of the original 30, all gone to south eastern except two
710s - only five so far have been in service, and never more than one at a time.

So that's more than 50 units (25 trains) fewer than in 2019, and another 24 trains are running as eight-car that used to be ten thanks to the withdrawal of the 456s. .

Yes, Class 442s, 455s, 456s being sent off lease / scrap. Class 707s heading to South Eastern and not replaced (as yet).

I didn't count the 442s as they never properly re-entered service anyway

EDIT - class 455 withdrawals advised as nine

 

[Horizon22]

Perhaps Control could do something but I expect thats unlikely to happen why schedule services using a spare crew when you could send them home early in return for a favour later on.

As I said, its more to do with units being required for maintenance on the weekend, plus the demand on an additional path and plan on what is normally some sort of reduced infrastructure. Of course crew can come into it, but nothing to do with "sending them home early".

Also there's a disconnect between whether something is actually required, whether people on the ground can actually give a proper accord of just how busy trains are and by the time that message has gone through, the peak flow might have subsidied. Weekend 'peaks' can be quite variable.