Ideas for more services like Lumo on the UK rail network?

[Jorge Da Silva]

Ok what other rail services could be introduced using a similar model to Lumo

Could Consider:

Service patterns
Frequency
Rolling Stock
Interior
Prices

 

[swt_passenger]

Just been done for the WCML here:

https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/will-we-ever-see-an-open-access-operator-on-the-west-coast-mainline.223767/#post-5362024

 

[Bletchleyite]

Sort of depends what you mean by "like Lumo"?

Standard class only? Chiltern (except the Mk3 sets).
No Off Peak walk up fares? Not done elsewhere yet.
Painted a manky colour of blue and wearing Star Trek uniforms? Well...

 

[JonathanH]

Ok what other rail services could be introduced using a similar model to Lumo

I would suggest there is nowhere that a similar concept would work.

You need:
* a route on which rail and air can compete effectively
* a route where sufficient people travel end to end to make that the main flow
* some spare capacity
* recognition that an additional limited stop train is the best use of that capacity
* some perceived gap in the current service provision

I think that to create the opportunities for something like Lumo elsewhere you might have to reduce the current provision. Doing that just to offer an opportunity for an operator to cherry pick or fill gaps doesn't really make a lot of sense.

 

[Clansman]

If we are talking about a journey on an end to end basis, then as far as Lumo examples go you have to look at the air demand figures as a base to start with.

Over 3 million passengers were handled pre covid from Edinburgh Airport to the big five airports in London, with strikingly similar city-centre to city-centre journey times (~4 hours).

I'm not sure anywhere else in the UK could match this.

Maybe Glasgow (which handled around 2 million London passengers pre covid), but there'd be issues posed when you boil down into the details of trying to replicate Lumo's model on the WCML due to various factors including available paths, demand, journey times (re tilt), and where the ORR stand on it based on their criteria for Open Access on revenue extraction and BCR.

 

[Ianno87]

London-Cardiff is the "obvious" one. The Grand Union application for the service did pass the Not Primarily Abstractive test (but failed on absolute abstraction).

 

[JonathanH]

London-Cardiff is the "obvious" one. The Grand Union application for the service did pass the Not Primarily Abstractive test (but failed on absolute abstraction).

I did think that if any. Significant coach demand on the M4 as well but filling an additional train five times a day when GWR are running a half hourly service seems a bit unnecessary.

I note that GWR pointed their extra trains at Bristol rather than South Wales under the planned IET timetable.

 

[Ianno87]

I did think that if any. Significant coach demand on the M4 as well but filling an additional train five times a day when GWR are running a half hourly service seems a bit unnecessary.

Although that's exactly what Lumo are doing against LNER! 5 trains per day on top of a half hourly franchised service.

GWR ramping up Bristol is probably about maxing out the stock to ping back and forth between Bristol.

 

[JonathanH]

Although that's exactly what Lumo are doing against LNER! 5 trains per day on top of a half hourly franchised service.

Yes, it is. How did it get approval again?

Almost the better analogy would be running Paddington to Plymouth (or perhaps Truro) stopping only at Slough, Exeter, Teignmouth and Plymouth. (Shame there are still single tracks in places in Cornwall and it is slow.)

 

[swt_passenger]

Yes, it is. How did it get approval again?

They asked for it in about 2015 and had it agreed well before the goalposts were moved?

 

[Ianno87]

They asked for it in about 2015 and had it agreed well before the goalposts were moved?

Reading the Decision Letter, it almost certainly would have been approved had Covid not ripped the industry's financial situation to bits.

 

[quantinghome]

I'd imagine a single-class high-capacity pile-em-high-sell-em-cheap service would work well on core parts of the XC network. But then where's the line capacity?

 

[Ianno87]

I'd imagine a single-class high-capacity pile-em-high-sell-em-cheap service would work well on core parts of the XC network. But then where's the line capacity?

Problem also is XC is lots of little flows, not really one big flow like Open Access targets to/from London.

 

[quantinghome]

Problem also is XC is lots of little flows, not really one big flow like Open Access targets to/from London.

It could concentrate on one of the larger 'little' flows like Leeds - Birmingham. A 400 seater train on that journey would be a winner, even if it had to avoid intermediate stops to make the timetable work.

 

[Ianno87]

It could concentrate on one of the larger 'little' flows like Leeds - Birmingham. A 400 seater train on that journey would be a winner, even if it had to avoid intermediate stops to make the timetable work.

Manchester-Birmingham would be a shoe in if you could find capacity for an additional train path that significantly betters the current journey time...until HS2 comes along, anyway.

 

[PTR 444]

It could concentrate on one of the larger 'little' flows like Leeds - Birmingham. A 400 seater train on that journey would be a winner, even if it had to avoid intermediate stops to make the timetable work.

Great idea. You could run it via Castle Donington, Erewash Valley and the Old Road to avoid other passenger trains…

Oh wait, isn’t that what the revised budget HS2 eastern leg is for?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yes, it is. How did it get approval again?

Almost the better analogy would be running Paddington to Plymouth (or perhaps Truro) stopping only at Slough, Exeter, Teignmouth and Plymouth. (Shame there are still single tracks in places in Cornwall and it is slow.)

Lumo? It allegedly is more abstracting from low cost airlines rather than LNER. The (franchised) WMT services on the WCML might be comparable in that they probably do a fair bit of abstracting from coaches and your mate's old banger rather than just Avanti.

 

[tornado]

Surely London-Glasgow is the obvious one. Currently a large number of gatwick/heathrow-glasgow flights so the market is clearly there.

Also the non-tilt WCML limits are being changed to 125mph for the new Avanti 807s so that won't be a problem.

It seems the May 2022 ECML timetable is aiming for 4 hrs 10 with 2 stops, I wonder if the WCML could achieve similar with Glasgow, Preston, Crewe, Euston.

 

[TheBigD]

It seems the May 2022 ECML timetable is aiming for 4 hrs 10 with 2 stops, I wonder if the WCML could achieve similar with Glasgow, Preston, Crewe, Euston.

There used to be a fast 1630 Euston to Glasgow stopping at just Preston until a few years ago when it became a standard path with the usual stops. Journey time was 4hr08m. From many reports on here over the years it was very lightly loaded, particularly north of Preston.

 

[The Planner]

Surely London-Glasgow is the obvious one. Currently a large number of gatwick/heathrow-glasgow flights so the market is clearly there.

Also the non-tilt WCML limits are being changed to 125mph for the new Avanti 807s so that won't be a problem.

It seems the May 2022 ECML timetable is aiming for 4 hrs 10 with 2 stops, I wonder if the WCML could achieve similar with Glasgow, Preston, Crewe, Euston.

Very little of it will be 125 non-tilt. I doubt you will see many 807s north of Weaver Jn either.

 

[NoRoute]

There must be huge scope to run more bulk, budget rail services between high demand locations if the railways were an open network with open access, because even where a specific location does not have enough demand within the immediate vicinity, then passengers would use it within a hub and spoke type model, taking local services to get onto the budget long-distance service.

But I doubt it will ever happen because the railways are not an open network with open access. It relies on it being closed to competition, in order to extract premium fares from certain routes and certain passenger market segments to cross-subsidise other services and parts of the network.

 

[philosopher]

Surely London-Glasgow is the obvious one. Currently a large number of gatwick/heathrow-glasgow flights so the market is clearly there.

Also the non-tilt WCML limits are being changed to 125mph for the new Avanti 807s so that won't be a problem.

It seems the May 2022 ECML timetable is aiming for 4 hrs 10 with 2 stops, I wonder if the WCML could achieve similar with Glasgow, Preston, Crewe, Euston.

Trains to Glasgow from london in my experience tend be lightly loaded north of the Lake District, whereas those to Edinburgh are busy throughout.

I suspect the demand from London to Edinburgh is much greater than that to Glasgow, probably because Edinburgh attracts a lot a tourists while Glasgow does not. An open access operator is going to find it a lot easier to run London to Edinburgh trains than London to Glasgow trains

 

[Ianno87]

Trains to Glasgow from london in my experience tend be lightly loaded north of the Lake District, whereas those to Edinburgh are busy throughout.

I suspect the demand from London to Edinburgh is much greater than that to Glasgow, probably because Edinburgh attracts a lot a tourists while Glasgow does not. An open access operator is going to find it a lot easier to run London to Edinburgh trains than London to Glasgow trains

That's why Grand Central were targeting Blackpool and the Central Lancashire market.

 

[Parallel]

I might be biased being from the South West but I'd like to see some sort of South West/North West or Scotland service, if the paths could be found. Looking at XC's offering, there seems to be a lot of long distance travel from checking the reservations on board, and would imagine this could be replicated up the WCML if there were a few direct services. Carlisle would be a good terminating point if the trains couldn't go to Scotland.

 

[Ianno87]

Just going over the Network Rail Long Distance Market Study (a bit old, from 2013), and the flows that are recommended Conditional Outputs between Principal Regional Centres (that currently do not have direct trains) are:

Cardiff-Leeds
Cardiff-Leicester
Cardiff-Sheffield
Edinburgh-Liverpool
Leeds-Leicester
Leicester-Liverpool
Leicester-Manchester


So any kind of long distance non-London Open Access service would have to try and hit as many of those as possible, without requiring infrastructure.

Best (crayon-y) shot would be a Cardiff-Gloucester-Cheltenham-Leicester-Sheffield-Leeds type service.

 

[JonathanH]

Best (crayon-y) shot would be a Cardiff-Gloucester-Cheltenham-Leicester-Sheffield-Leeds type service.

The Lumo type service would be Cardiff - Birmingham - Leeds without the intermediate stops. The line speeds no doubt count against this actually working. Leicester seems a bit too much of a detour and I can't see a concentrated flow of 400 people wanting to travel from Cardiff on such a service.

 

[TheBigD]

Just going over the Network Rail Long Distance Market Study (a bit old, from 2013), and the flows that are recommended Conditional Outputs between Principal Regional Centres (that currently do not have direct trains) are:

Cardiff-Leeds
Cardiff-Leicester
Cardiff-Sheffield
Edinburgh-Liverpool
Leeds-Leicester
Leicester-Liverpool
Leicester-Manchester


So any kind of long distance non-London Open Access service would have to try and hit as many of those as possible, without requiring infrastructure.

Best (crayon-y) shot would be a Cardiff-Gloucester-Cheltenham-Leicester-Sheffield-Leeds type service.

Some interesting links on that list...

Edinburgh-Liverpool would have been hourly had the TPE service not been canned north of Newcastle, though I suspect that the list refers to WCML route.

Leeds-Leicester. When National Express operated MML they ordered the 9 car 222s with a view to extending the St Pancras-Nottingham service through to Leeds.
(think that's right but my memory may be wrong)

Leicester-Liverpool was hourly under Central Trains but was split at Birmingham around 2005 or 2006.

Leicester-Manchester was hourly for about 18 months under project Rio but the service was pretty lightly loaded.

 

[Ianno87]

Some interesting links on that list...

Edinburgh-Liverpool would have been hourly had the TPE service not been canned north of Newcastle, though I suspect that the list refers to WCML route.

.

It refers to any route that can achieves the average speed and frequency output (so, in practice, likely the WCML).

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Some interesting links on that list...

Edinburgh-Liverpool would have been hourly had the TPE service not been canned north of Newcastle, though I suspect that the list refers to WCML route.

Leeds-Leicester. When National Express operated MML they ordered the 9 car 222s with a view to extending the St Pancras-Nottingham service through to Leeds.
(think that's right but my memory may be wrong)

Leicester-Liverpool was hourly under Central Trains but was split at Birmingham around 2005 or 2006.

Leicester-Manchester was hourly for about 18 months under project Rio but the service was pretty lightly loaded.

Think it was planned that the Sheffield to London service was to be extended to Leeds, no?

 

[tornado]

There used to be a fast 1630 Euston to Glasgow stopping at just Preston until a few years ago when it became a standard path with the usual stops. Journey time was 4hr08m. From many reports on here over the years it was very lightly loaded, particularly north of Preston.

That's too early for most people to get to after work. Friday and Sunday evenings are the peak times for EasyJet, so there's definitely a lot of end-to-end traffic at those times. 5.50pm-10pm would probably be attractive to many fliers as it would arrive before the last easyjet.