Is the WCML franchise necessary after HS2?

[Chester1]

I am leaning towards thinking that the planned service level for HS2 is going to be far too much and that at some point there will be a big push to increase usage to prevent it looking like a failure. Upon completion of HS2 is it necessary to have a Euston-Glasgow, Euston-Manchester or Euston-Birmingham (fast) services? Same if Liverpool gets a captive line (Classic compatible services to Liverpool could potentially be worse than WCML services as they wont be able to tilt so will be limites to 110mph on WCML). Birmingham-Glasgow could be a HS2 CC service or put back into the XCountry franchise. With the likelihood of blackpool open access services (As well as GNWR less developed Leed to London via Manchester Victoria plans) is it actually necessary to have a WCML franchise after the completion of HS2? Couldnt local services connecting go HS2 stations and open access opperators running services from towns they thought werent sufficently well served be enough?

Thinking of my local area I can see Crewe-Chester being made to HS2 Captive loading gauage because 30+ low bridges mean just electifying it is probably not be much less cost. I can see Chester supporting a 2 hourly 200m captive train (675 seat?) as many services are double voyagers until Chester. I then think an open access service perhaps 6 per day via Northwich, Middlewich and Crewe (maybe some via Altrichingham and Knutsford instead of Chester would work if the freight line was increased from 20mph. I cant imagine the welsh government would be happy though.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Couldnt local services connecting go HS2 stations and open access opperators running services from towns they thought werent sufficently well served be enough?
I can see Chester supporting a 2 hourly 200m captive train (675 seat?) as many services are double voyagers until Chester. I then think an open access service perhaps 6 per day via Northwich, Middlewich and Crewe (maybe some via Altrichingham and Knutsford instead of Chester would work if the freight line was increased from 20mph. I cant imagine the welsh government would be happy though.

The ICWC franchise might well become the HS2 franchise, leaving the classic routes via Rugby to the West Midlands franchise (currently LM).
This probably wouldn't run beyond Manchester/Liverpool/Preston, and would concentrate on regional services (but would need some tilting 390s to maintain fast services).
Chester is an odd one. Only 3 of the current hourly Voyagers are double, and they are mainly for WCML reasons.
Only one of these 3 extends into North Wales. I think those services are still in the mini-Pendolino category.
I also can't see local Cheshire lines being massively upgraded AND hosting an HS2 route. One or the other I think.
Knutsford and Altrincham folk will surely use the Manchester Airport HS2 station.

 

[edwin_m]

Yes most long-distance WCML services will probably disappear with HS2, and would seem logical to merge them with what are now LM service at the south end and perhaps Transpennine further north.

The OP's speculation on Liverpool journey times is incorrect. The time benefit of tilting between Crewe and Liverpool is tiny compared with that of using the high speed route between London and Crewe. Comparative journey times are on the HS2 website. Gauge enhancement on Crewe-Chester has been discussed extensively on at least one previous topic without reaching any conclusion, and doesn't really relate to the OP's question.

 

[NotATrainspott]

Thinking of my local area I can see Crewe-Chester being made to HS2 Captive loading gauage because 30+ low bridges mean just electifying it is probably not be much less cost. I can see Chester supporting a 2 hourly 200m captive train (675 seat?) as many services are double voyagers until Chester. I then think an open access service perhaps 6 per day via Northwich, Middlewich and Crewe (maybe some via Altrichingham and Knutsford instead of Chester would work if the freight line was increased from 20mph. I cant imagine the welsh government would be happy though.

Classic-compatible and captive trains are both predicted to have the same 550 seat capacity, especially as double deck trains are not being considered (but are feasible). Capacity-wise, so long as there are suitable paths on the classic network, the only difference between a captive and a classic spur is that captive spurs allow the operation of 400m train sets. Chester will not justify running 400m train sets for quite a long time, if ever.

 

[MK Tom]

The main idea was that HS2 will enable the major WCML stops currently bypassed, such as MK, Northampton, Coventry, Nuneaton, Tamworth and Stafford to gain long-distance intercity connections they don't currently have, such as to Liverpool, Glasgow and so on. I'm skeptical whether they'll actually run with that though. It felt like an excuse to justify HS2 skipping certain places, particularly MK/Northampton and Coventry.

In other countries a new high speed line will usually compliment, not replace, the existing traditional express route. Turin-Milan classic trains are still well used for instance.

 

[aylesbury]

The current WCML stations such as MK will still require services to the north as HS2 will be miles away and not accessable . The current passenger levels will not decline and passengers do not like changing trains with all the hassle involved so lets hope Anglo Scottish trains will still run alongside HS2 units.

 

[WatcherZero]

Long distance services will still exist, they will just become slower stoppers. This will lead to a more frequent service from stations usually bypassed and new services for smaller station off the main spine.

For example a route that was two fasts and a stopper might become two stoppers and a new destination service.

 

[21C101]

I think the answer has to be YES.

However there may well be three key changes:

1) More Stops
2) Reduction in intercity services allowing more outer suburban and freight services
3) Merge the franchise with the WCML elements of London Midland

Effectively I think you would have a London Midland + Franchise

I reckon "fast line" services out of Euston would look something like this:

2PH: EU-WAT-MK-BLIS/WGP-RUG-COV-BHI-(MARG)-BNS-S&D-WOLV

2PH: EU-WAT/MK-BLIS/WGP-RUG/NUN-STO-MACC-STOC-MANPIC

1PH EU-MK-BLIS-WGP-NUN-STA-CREW-RUN-LIV

1PH EU-WAT-BLIS-WGP-RUG-STA-CREW-WAR-WIG-PREST

2PH EU-WAT-LEIBUZ-BLET-MK-NTH-LBUCK-RUG-COV-CAN/BERKS-TILH-BHI-MARG-LEAH/STECH-BNS

1PH: EU-WAT-LEIBUZ-BLET-MK-NTH-RUG-NUN-TAM-LICH-STAF-STON-STOK-CREW-WILM-STOCK-MANPIC

1PH: EU-WAT-LEIBUZ-BLET-MK-NTH-LBUCK-RUG-NUN-TAM-LICH-STAF-STON-STOK-CREW-HART-RUN-LSP-LIV

2PH-PADD-OLDOAK-WAT-LEIBUZ-BLET-MK-WOLV-NTH (Xrail franchise)

1PH-BRIS-BATH-SWIN-OXF-OXFPK-MK-BLIS-WGP-STO-MAC-STOK-MAN

1PH-BOURN-SOTON-WIN-BAS-READ-DID-OXF-OXFPK-MK-BLIS-WGP-LICH-STAF-CREW-RUN-LIV


WGP= Watford Gap Parkway. - directly accessible from Watford Gap services on M1 as well as A5.
BLIS= Blisworth and Northampton Parkway. -directly accessible from A43


BLIS/WGP = with two per hour service, one stops at BLIS, the other at WGP

Trains in Blue cross over at Ledburn

Trains in Green use new spur from East West Rail to Fast lines at Bletchley.


Slow Line Trains

2PH PAD-OLD-HAR-WAT-HEM-& STNS to MK

4PH PAD-OLD-HAR-WAT & STNS to TRING

2PH-SOUTHCROYDON-&STNS-HAR-WAT & STNS TO TRING

 

[The Planner]

Crossrail isnt going past Tring and there wont be new stations on the fasts.

 

[adrock1976]

I think the answer has to be YES.

However there may well be three key changes:

1) More Stops
2) Reduction in intercity services allowing more outer suburban and freight services
3) Merge the franchise with the WCML elements of London Midland

Effectively I think you would have a London Midland + Franchise

I reckon "fast line" services out of Euston would look something like this:

2PH: EU-WAT-MK-BLIS/WGP-RUG-COV-BHI-(MARG)-BNS-S&D-WOLV

2PH: EU-WAT/MK-BLIS/WGP-RUG/NUN-STO-MACC-STOC-MANPIC

1PH EU-MK-BLIS-WGP-NUN-STA-CREW-RUN-LIV

1PH EU-WAT-BLIS-WGP-RUG-STA-CREW-WAR-WIG-PREST

2PH EU-WAT-LEIBUZ-BLET-MK-NTH-LBUCK-RUG-COV-CAN/BERKS-TILH-BHI-MARG-LEAH/STECH-BNS

1PH: EU-WAT-LEIBUZ-BLET-MK-NTH-RUG-NUN-TAM-LICH-STAF-STON-STOK-CREW-WILM-STOCK-MANPIC

1PH: EU-WAT-LEIBUZ-BLET-MK-NTH-LBUCK-RUG-NUN-TAM-LICH-STAF-STON-STOK-CREW-HART-RUN-LSP-LIV

2PH-PADD-OLDOAK-WAT-LEIBUZ-BLET-MK-WOLV-NTH (Xrail franchise)

1PH-BRIS-BATH-SWIN-OXF-OXFPK-MK-BLIS-WGP-STO-MAC-STOK-MAN

1PH-BOURN-SOTON-WIN-BAS-READ-DID-OXF-OXFPK-MK-BLIS-WGP-LICH-STAF-CREW-RUN-LIV


WGP= Watford Gap Parkway. - directly accessible from Watford Gap services on M1 as well as A5.
BLIS= Blisworth and Northampton Parkway. -directly accessible from A43


BLIS/WGP = with two per hour service, one stops at BLIS, the other at WGP

Trains in Blue cross over at Ledburn

Trains in Green use new spur from East West Rail to Fast lines at Bletchley.


Slow Line Trains

2PH PAD-OLD-HAR-WAT-HEM-& STNS to MK

4PH PAD-OLD-HAR-WAT & STNS to TRING

2PH-SOUTHCROYDON-&STNS-HAR-WAT & STNS TO TRING

With one of these services per hour continuing to Shrewsbury calling at Telford Central and Wellington Telford West, and the other service continuing to Leeds calling at Stafford, Crewe (or Stoke-on-Trent), Wilmslow (or Macclesfield), Stockport, Guide Bridge (subject to platform length, if not, don't bother), Stalybridge, Huddersfield, and Leeds. Obviously, both of these suggestions would need wires for the missing gaps e.g. Wolves - Shrewsbury, and Stockport - Guide Bridge. The Leeds route was the historic London & North Western Railway route to Leeds.

In peace

Adam

 

[Aictos]

Crossrail isnt going past Tring and there wont be new stations on the fasts.

I thought Crossrail heading to Tring was just a proposal, what are the chances of these services running before the redevelopment of Euston?

 

[21C101]

Crossrail isnt going past Tring and there wont be new stations on the fasts.

Crossrail isnt going to Reading either.

 

[Qwerty133]

I think the answer has to be YES.

However there may well be three key changes:

1) More Stops
2) Reduction in intercity services allowing more outer suburban and freight services
3) Merge the franchise with the WCML elements of London Midland

Effectively I think you would have a London Midland + Franchise

I reckon "fast line" services out of Euston would look something like this:

2PH: EU-WAT-MK-BLIS/WGP-RUG-COV-BHI-(MARG)-BNS-S&D-WOLV

2PH: EU-WAT/MK-BLIS/WGP-RUG/NUN-STO-MACC-STOC-MANPIC

1PH EU-MK-BLIS-WGP-NUN-STA-CREW-RUN-LIV

1PH EU-WAT-BLIS-WGP-RUG-STA-CREW-WAR-WIG-PREST

2PH EU-WAT-LEIBUZ-BLET-MK-NTH-LBUCK-RUG-COV-CAN/BERKS-TILH-BHI-MARG-LEAH/STECH-BNS

1PH: EU-WAT-LEIBUZ-BLET-MK-NTH-RUG-NUN-TAM-LICH-STAF-STON-STOK-CREW-WILM-STOCK-MANPIC

1PH: EU-WAT-LEIBUZ-BLET-MK-NTH-LBUCK-RUG-NUN-TAM-LICH-STAF-STON-STOK-CREW-HART-RUN-LSP-LIV

2PH-PADD-OLDOAK-WAT-LEIBUZ-BLET-MK-WOLV-NTH (Xrail franchise)

1PH-BRIS-BATH-SWIN-OXF-OXFPK-MK-BLIS-WGP-STO-MAC-STOK-MAN

1PH-BOURN-SOTON-WIN-BAS-READ-DID-OXF-OXFPK-MK-BLIS-WGP-LICH-STAF-CREW-RUN-LIV


WGP= Watford Gap Parkway. - directly accessible from Watford Gap services on M1 as well as A5.
BLIS= Blisworth and Northampton Parkway. -directly accessible from A43


BLIS/WGP = with two per hour service, one stops at BLIS, the other at WGP

Trains in Blue cross over at Ledburn

Trains in Green use new spur from East West Rail to Fast lines at Bletchley.


Slow Line Trains

2PH PAD-OLD-HAR-WAT-HEM-& STNS to MK

4PH PAD-OLD-HAR-WAT & STNS to TRING

2PH-SOUTHCROYDON-&STNS-HAR-WAT & STNS TO TRING

Barnes is a weird place to go between birmingham int and Sandwell and Dudley...

 

[The Planner]

I thought Crossrail heading to Tring was just a proposal, what are the chances of these services running before the redevelopment of Euston?

None considering Euston starts getting ripped up in 17. Would still bet considerable cash on it not going past Tring and nothing else north of there is mentioned in documents I have seen.

 

[MK Tom]

Barnes is a weird place to go between birmingham int and Sandwell and Dudley...

Never knew Waterloo was the first stop out of Euston either.

As for the point about Crossrail north of Tring, Reading among other things have proved that, like Sean Connery, we should never say never.

 

[Bevan Price]

I think that the current LM services south of Northampton / Rugby will remain at about the same level as now. Services continuing to Birmingham will be the same number per hour, but probably with revised pattern of stops at intermediate stations.

LM services will remain the main method of serving Trent Valley stations between Rugby & Stafford, but there may be revised calling patterns & destinations north of Stafford.

For example, there could be :
(Each 1 tph)
Euston - MK - Rugby - all stations to Stafford - Crewe - Runcorn - Liverpool.
Euston - Watford - MK - Northampton - Rugby - Nuneaton - Tamworth - Lichfield - Stafford - Stone - Stoke - Crewe.
Birmingham - Wolv - Stafford - Stone - Stoke - stations to Manchester.
Birmingham - Liverpool, stations as now, but reduced from 2 to 1 tph.

WCML "fast" services:
Euston - Birmingham & Manchester, each reduced to 2 tph, of which,
1 tph Birmingham service continues, as now, to Scotland serving same stations as now.
2-3 per day Birmingham services extended to Shrewsbury.
2-3 per day Manchester services extended via Bolton to Preston & Blackpool.
Euston - Liverpool 1 tph **
Euston - Glasgow 1 tph **
Euston - Chester 1 tph **

** - Some of these would make additional calls to serve Watford Jn, MK, Rugby, Nuneaton, Tamworth, Lichfield, Stafford or Crewe - but stations Rugby, Nuneaton, Tamworth & Lichfield would have only one "fast" service per hour each way. Watford, MK, Stafford & Crewe might get 2 (or even) 3 "fasts" per hour.

 

[fowler9]

Considering Liverpool is not currently on the HS2 map I wouldn't be mad on it suddenly becoming part of a slow inter urban network where the good people of Liverpool can catch a fast train at a metropolis like Crewe.

 

[NotATrainspott]

Considering Liverpool is not currently on the HS2 map I wouldn't be mad on it suddenly becoming part of a slow inter urban network where the good people of Liverpool can catch a fast train at a metropolis like Crewe.

Liverpool will have two classic-compatible services to Euston on HS2 every hour.

 

[6Gman]

Considering Liverpool is not currently on the HS2 map I wouldn't be mad on it suddenly becoming part of a slow inter urban network where the good people of Liverpool can catch a fast train at a metropolis like Crewe.

Don't you mean "a metropolis like Basford"?