Island Line Railway - current state and the future

[BestWestern]

Given the frankly horrendous state of the existing railway line, and few (if any) viable and realistic options to change that, I would disagree. The way to stave of the 'second rate status' is to have accessible, modern and efficient transport no matter what form it manifests itself in. The Island line fails miserably at that. West Wight for example is not some decrepit embarrassing hovel for not having a train run anywhere near it - its exceptionally good bus system speaks for itself.

West Wight is a nightmare to access by bus though. Try landing at Ryde and visiting The Needles, two buses via Newport and getting on for two hours each way. It's barely possible as a day trip for those arriving on two thirds of the island's foot passenger routes, and yet it's one of the main visitor attractions. It isn't much easier for the other third landing at Cowes, either. Vectis is good, but it has limitations, one of which being that it's slow. Plenty of tourists arrive at Ryde and make their way to Sandown and Shanklin for their hotels, or for a seaside day trip somewhere other than Ryde. The railway is perfect for that flow, I struggle to imagine why anyone would choose to use the bus instead. Especially hotel guests with a weekend's luggage. There are certainly plenty of difficult questions about Island Line, but I'm not at all convinced that Vectis is a suitable replacement in the holiday season.

This looks to me like a clear comparison with Blackpool tramway. Supposedly clinging on for decades, with zero investment in rolling stock or infrastructure, serving almost exclusively tourists and precious few locals. Closure looked certain, although nobody knew when it would come. And then, seemingly out of the blue, massive investment, transformation to modern standards and huge sucess. Very few saw that coming. So much success that the system is being extended. Like Island Line, once upon a time it was being truncated. Heritage has also been allowed to remain alongside the new order. Surely a case worthy of study for those tasked with deciding the future on the island?

 

[Olaf]

So the line has its own challenges. In spite of this, I believe firmly in safety in numbers. I think the line would be far better off under the protective wing of the national network. The track gauge, the signalling systems, these are all found elsewhere on the mainland. Even the rolling stock isn't particularly unique.

A line should be drawn under the experiment of letting it be run into the ground.

Weather it is part of the national network or not, you still come back to square one - justifying the expenditure based on other demands on the funds and the minimal return on the investment.

There was no experiment, just insufficient grounds for justifying significant expenditure on the line.

Emotive arguments are fine, but at some point a decision has to be based on a reasoned argument.

 

[yorksrob]

So, now you are saying new build. If there is no suitable used stock that meets legal requirements, then a new build may be possible with funding. Funding is likely possible for procurement, but then that does not address justification of the funding.

The funding will effectively be a lot cheaper than a comparable main line train - which will make the funding a lot easier to justify.

Where is the evidence of the infrastructure lasting twice as long? It is claimed that the infrastructure is in a poor state, or are you redefining scope of life-expired?

This is a hunch on my part. I'm sure an expert can confirm one way or the other, but I would be surprised if it is renewed as regularly as a main line elsewhere.

 

[Olaf]

Perhaps they could do a dumbed down version. This is a quagmire of complicated technology we've allowed the whole railway to fall into. It will have to muddle through with it. That's no reason to not do the same with the island line.

Perhaps features could be kept to a minimum, but is still a significant cost to justify.

 

[Olaf]

Vectis are good certainly, but they have limitations. Vehicle capacity being an obvious one of course, as well as ease of transporting large volumes of seasonal luggage. And ye,


West Wight is a nightmare to access by bus though. Try landing at Ryde and visiting The Needles, two buses via Newport and getting on for two hours each way. It's barely possible as a day trip for those arriving on two thirds of the island's foot passenger routes, and yet it's one of the main visitor attractions. It isn't much easier for the other third landing at Cowes, either. Vectis is good, but it has limitations, one of which being that it's slow. Plenty of tourists arrive at Ryde and make their way to Sandown and Shanklin for their hotels, or for a seaside day trip somewhere other than Ryde. The railway is perfect for that flow, I struggle to imagine why anyone would choose to use the bus instead. Especially hotel guests with a weekend's luggage. There are certainly plenty of difficult questions about Island Line, but I'm not at all convinced that Vectis is a suitable replacement in the holiday season.

This looks to me like a clear comparison with Blackpool tramway. Supposedly clinging on for decades, with zero investment in rolling stock or infrastructure, serving almost exclusively tourists and precious few locals. Closure looked certain, although nobody knew when it would come. And then, seemingly out of the blue, massive investment, transformation to modern standards and huge sucess. So much so that extensions are now happening. Heritage has also been allowed to remain alongside the new order. Surely a case worthy of study for those tasked with deciding the future on the island?

Yes, journeys on the west side are time consuming.

Sounds good. So the consultation and outcome are going to worth watching.

 

[yorksrob]

Weather it is part of the national network or not, you still come back to square one - justifying the expenditure based on other demands on the funds and the minimal return on the investment.

There was no experiment, just insufficient grounds for justifying significant expenditure on the line.

Emotive arguments are fine, but at some point a decision has to be based on a reasoned argument.

No, I believe maintenance of the route was devolved to the TOC for quite a while. Whilst there would normally be nothing wrong with vertical integration, its hard to see how splitting it from the network would help it to access the expertise and budgets of the wider network.

In terms of return on investment, I come back to my point that if your investment lasts a lot longer, you get a correspondingly greater return as it is over a longer time. The fact that rolling stock on the island has always been very long lasting is a matter of record.

 

[Olaf]

The funding will effectively be a lot cheaper than a comparable main line train - which will make the funding a lot easier to justify.

Justification will be against costings for the project, not by comparison with mainline renewals.

This is a hunch on my part. I'm sure an expert can confirm one way or the other, but I would be surprised if it is renewed as regularly as a main line elsewhere.

I guessed that would be the case. The period of time that the rail infrastructure has been in place is much more likely to do with the investment profile than it is to do with any intrinsic greater life expectancy for the materials and structures on the Island.

 

[Olaf]

No, I believe maintenance of the route was devolved to the TOC for quite a while. Whilst there would normally be nothing wrong with vertical integration, its hard to see how splitting it from the network would help it to access the expertise and budgets of the wider network.

There is no problem with access to expertise - it is access to funding that is the problem.

In terms of return on investment, I come back to my point that if your investment lasts a lot longer, you get a correspondingly greater return as it is over a longer time. The fact that rolling stock on the island has always been very long lasting is a matter of record.

The return is dictated by the revenues, which is deterred by the services offered and the level of external funding. Capital investment will be required to enable an enhanced service, but whether the investment can be justified is yet to be determined.

 

[yorksrob]

Justification will be against costings for the project, not by comparison with mainline renewals.

Surely the whole point of cost-benefit analysis is that it compares the cost to the benefit.

I guessed that would be the case. The period of time that the rail infrastructure has been in place is much more likely to do with the investment profile than it is to do with any intrinsic greater life expectancy for the materials and structures on the Island.

I don't think anybody's arguing that materials behave differently on the island. The fact remains that assets are made to last longer and there is no justification for not factoring this in.

 

[DenmarkRail]

Everyone here is far too pessimistic towards the Island Line...

It would be FAR too politically damaging to close the line.

 

[yorksrob]

The return is dictated by the revenues, which is deterred by the services offered and the level of external funding. Capital investment will be required to enable an enhanced service, but whether the investment can be justified is yet to be determined.

Yes, but revenue will be greater over a longer period of time (all else being equal).

 

[Olaf]

Surely the whole point of cost-benefit analysis is that it compares the cost to the benefit.

Correct, and that is what I was saying.

I don't think anybody's arguing that materials behave differently on the island. The fact remains that assets are made to last longer and there is no justification for not factoring this in.

So it not an intrinsic longer life, just possible abrogation of safety standards. OK.

You still have to arrive at a figure for the claimed savings, and then compare that against the whole cost of the project. Is that going to make a significant difference?

 

[Olaf]

Everyone here is far too pessimistic towards the Island Line...

It would be FAR too politically damaging to close the line.

That is possibly the only reason it would get the funding, but then there is also the counter balancing claims of gerrymandering. If there is insufficient political capital, calls on that basis will be ignored as elsewhere.

 

[Olaf]

Yes, but revenue will be greater over a longer period of time (all else being equal).

Unlikely unless the service is enhanced, which requires capital investment. Catch-22 again.

 

[yorksrob]

So it not an intrinsic longer life, just possible abrogation of safety standards. OK.

You still have to arrive at a figure for the claimed savings, and then compare that against the whole cost of the project. Is that going to make a significant difference?

Not necessarily an abrogation of safety standards. If you're not running twelve carriage trains at 100mph, things won't wear out as much. Its notable that the IC125 is likely to last considerably longer than forty years - that doesn't mean that safety standards are being abrogated.

 

[yorksrob]

Unlikely unless the service is enhanced, which requires capital investment. Catch-22 again.

Not really - you only need to maintain a steady state. Infact, history suggests that you will get a bit of a boost from the new kit alone.

 

[joncombe]

West Wight is a nightmare to access by bus though. Try landing at Ryde and visiting The Needles, two buses via Newport and getting on for two hours each way. It's barely possible as a day trip for those arriving on two thirds of the island's foot passenger routes, and yet it's one of the main visitor attractions. It isn't much easier for the other third landing at Cowes, either. Vectis is good, but it has limitations, one of which being that it's slow. Plenty of tourists arrive at Ryde and make their way to Sandown and Shanklin for their hotels, or for a seaside day trip somewhere other than Ryde. The railway is perfect for that flow, I struggle to imagine why anyone would choose to use the bus instead. Especially hotel guests with a weekend's luggage. There are certainly plenty of difficult questions about Island Line, but I'm not at all convinced that Vectis is a suitable replacement in the holiday season.

It is a shame they axed the "Island Explorer" route 7 and 7A busses which used to run right around the island, thereby providing direct links from Ryde to west wight. Now it's gone not only is it harder to get between the east and west of the island, the south coast is virtually inaccessible by bus now, particularly the bit between Ventnor and Freshwater. It used to get a regular bus service, now I think there is just 1 service at peak times each way. I agree the Southern Vectis are one of the better operators but I agree that it's annoying that so many journeys require a change at Newport. I think they are also a bit odd with fares - I think they don't issue return tickets? And single tickets are not cheap so in practice if you are doing a return trip it is often cheaper to buy one of the day explorer tickets.

 

[bramling]

Everyone here is far too pessimistic towards the Island Line...

It would be FAR too politically damaging to close the line.

Politically damaging to who? We're talking about one constituency, which has a relatively safe majority. Sure it could become a politically salient issue, but I can't see the politicians worrying too much about it. Few apart from those living on the island would care too much, indeed most people on the mainland wouldn't even know what Island Line is.

Not that I'd wish to see it closed by any means, and I suspect status quo will end up prevailing as it always has since privatisation. A lot will depend on how long the 38 stock can be kept running, either at all, or economically, which must surely have been investigated officially.

 

[yorksrob]

think they don't issue return tickets? And single tickets are not cheap so in practice if you are doing a return trip it is often cheaper to buy one of the day explorer tickets.

That's a fairly common ploy on the bus network.

 

[bramling]

Correct, and that is what I was saying.



So it not an intrinsic longer life, just possible abrogation of safety standards. OK.

You still have to arrive at a figure for the claimed savings, and then compare that against the whole cost of the project. Is that going to make a significant difference?

Two two-car Tube trains running at maximum 45 mph is pretty minimal as far as wear and tear goes, at least as far as the track goes. Likewise 40% fleet availability required most days is also very low (I know they sometimes change the trains over and also that occasionally formations are doubled up). It's no surprise that infrastructure lasts longer than average.

 

[Barclay]

Crap, inflexible service using antiquated rolling stock thus haemorrhaging passengers? Modern shiny buses seen as the future?

Good job that this forum wasn't around in the '60s, most of the posters would be cheering Beeching's axe......

 

[Mikey C]

Firstly rolling stock.

The current ex-tube rolling stock is over seventy years old, as was the previous ex tube stock. Even in steam days, the wooden bodied rolling stock tended to be super-annuated in comparison. This suggests that there is every possibility that:
a) The line can exist on a further batch of old rolling stock with a much reduced capital cost, or:
b) if stock is bought new, it can last the full seventy years, which means that you get around twice as much benefit for the capital cost.

It's doubtful that modern stock with it's complicated electronics would last anywhere near as long, the chips would burn out and the software rendered obsolete well before the mechanicals wore out!

The 73 stock is the last chance for the IoW to get "mechanical" stock!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Not at all. I took a bus at the weekend from Windermere to Conniston at the weekend. They tried to charge me a whopping £9.50 for the single fare

Single £9.50
Return £8.00
Dayrider (for all of the south Lakes) £8.00

Why is the first of those (or indeed the second) ever sold? That's like the £1000 XC fare that has probably never been sold either.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That's a fairly common ploy on the bus network.

It's not a terrible one. For less than two singles on many operators (for less than one single in the Lakes example!) you can make some marginal extra journeys too.

 

[MarkyT]

It's not a terrible one. For less than two singles on many operators (for less than one single in the Lakes example!) you can make some marginal extra journeys too.

Without a PAYG smartcard system with daily caps like Oyster, you can buy an overpriced single because you think that's the only journey you're going to make that day (perhaps you're getting a lift later or a taxi), but then your plans change and you need to undertake another single or return journey. You now may have to buy a daily pass which could have covered your initial single as well, or another single, which together with your first purchase may exceed the day ticket price. In my case a single a short distance (just over a mile) to town is £2.50 while a day ticket covering all routes within about 85 square miles of territory in South Devon is £5.00, so in the particular scenario I could end up paying 1.5 x the daily rover ticket price and would feel mightily ripped off. That's not to say the Torbay Dayrider isn't excellent value if you use it for longer outings, especially for multiple journeys. I'm not going to buy one on the off chance my plans might change though.

 

[philthetube]

Without a PAYG smartcard system with daily caps like Oyster, you can buy an overpriced single because you think that's the only journey you're going to make that day (perhaps you're getting a lift later or a taxi), but then your plans change and you need to undertake another single or return journey. You now may have to buy a daily pass which could have covered your initial single as well, or another single, which together with your first purchase may exceed the day ticket price. In my case a single a short distance (just over a mile) to town is £2.50 while a day ticket covering all routes within about 85 square miles of territory in South Devon is £5.00, so in the particular scenario I could end up paying 1.5 x the daily rover ticket price and would feel mightily ripped off. That's not to say the Torbay Dayrider isn't excellent value if you use it for longer outings, especially for multiple journeys. I'm not going to buy one on the off chance my plans might change though.

This argument also works against all forms of transport and everything except day returns, I went to work 15 days this month when I only expected to do 13 so a monthly would have been cheaper, I feel ripped off???????????? Or I bought a return and then my mum phoned and asked me to join her for lunch so a rover would have been cheaper, unless your point is thatonly singles should be sold in order to level the playingfield and ensure no one feels ripped off I cannot see your point?

 

[trash80]

It's doubtful that modern stock with it's complicated electronics would last anywhere near as long, the chips would burn out and the software rendered obsolete well before the mechanicals wore out!

The 73 stock is the last chance for the IoW to get "mechanical" stock!

Yes its why they did turn down the 1983 stock, they just didn't expect to have to wait so long for the 1973s.

 

[Chester1]

Crap, inflexible service using antiquated rolling stock thus haemorrhaging passengers? Modern shiny buses seen as the future?

Good job that this forum wasn't around in the '60s, most of the posters would be cheering Beeching's axe......

Not all of us have overwhelming bias to rail or heavy rail. Some of Beechings cuts were short sighted but some of them very clearly neccessary. If the practical aspects can be sorted my prefered solution for IoW would be trams. It would solve the tunnel problem and open up the possibility of expanding the system in the future. Potentially a busway could work though especially if it was extended along the old track bed to Newport and Cowes. That could actually be cheaper than full renewal of the line and a tailored order of 3 units. I reckon that eventually the government will fund new rolling stock for political reasons which would be a waste. I am not a local though and my experience is purely as a tourist

 

[yorksrob]

Single £9.50
Return £8.00
Dayrider (for all of the south Lakes) £8.00

Why is the first of those (or indeed the second) ever sold? That's like the £1000 XC fare that has probably never been sold either.

I was only offered the cheaper day rider, presumably when the driver saw steam coming out of my ears.

 

[yorksrob]

It's not a terrible one. For less than two singles on many operators (for less than one single in the Lakes example!) you can make some marginal extra journeys too.

I would prefer to have the option of a sensibly priced single and return ticket though.