Keir Starmer and the Labour Party

[edwin_m]

Western liberal democracy doesn't have a lot of friends in the modern world and it's enemies are increasingly brazen. Keeping in with our main alliance partner seems like a good idea, even if it may have a despicable leader. Not all Republicans support all Trump's notions - though sadly too many hold their noses and vote for him - and having links with their Party is not a bad idea.

Not sure we will be able to call a Trump-led USA an ally though.

In other news, Natalie Elphicke has just defected to Labour at the start of PMQs. Anyone know if she aligns much with current Labour policies?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

In other news, Natalie Elphicke has just defected to Labour at the start of PMQs. Anyone know if she aligns much with current Labour policies?

Wow, definitely didn't see that one coming. How far back in history do you have to go to find not one but TWO MPs defecting to the other side within less than a month of each other? (Dan Poulter was 27 April - 11 days ago). That's really not going to help Rishi Sunak's standing in the Tory Party.

I wonder how that'll work out for candidates at the next election. Labour already has a candidate in place in Dover, which I'd put as a reasonably safe Tory seat with (before Elphicke's defection) an outside chance of Labour taking it. Probably a near-certainty of Labour taking it if they are able to persuade their current candidate to stand aside for Elphicke.

 

[brad465]

In other news, Natalie Elphicke has just defected to Labour at the start of PMQs. Anyone know if she aligns much with current Labour policies?

Wow, definitely didn't see that one coming. How far back in history do you have to go to find not one but TWO MPs defecting to the other side within less than a month of each other? (Dan Poulter was 27 April - 11 days ago). That's really not going to help Rishi Sunak's standing in the Tory Party.

I wonder how that'll work out for candidates at the next election. Labour already has a candidate in place in Dover, which I'd put as a reasonably safe Tory seat with (before Elphicke's defection) an outside chance of Labour taking it. Probably a near-certainty of Labour taking it if they are able to persuade their current candidate to stand aside for Elphicke.

According to Chris Mason of the BBC, she's expected to stand down at the election, allowing the incumbent Labour candidate to remain. I think in reality anyone defecting now has to accept standing down as well, if they want to avoid a huge internal party row regarding who is the candidate for the given seat.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-68975761?src_origin=BBCS_BBC

Defections are head spinning for Westminster​

Another one. Another defection. Another Conservative MP giving up on the Conservatives and crossing the floor to Labour.
Defections don’t happen very often. Or at least they don’t in normal times.
But barely days after Dan Poulter, a former Tory minister, switched to Labour, now Natalie Elphicke has too.
Little wonder there was chat beforehand that Sir Keir Starmer wanted to talk about small boat crossings. Natalie Elphicke is the MP for Dover.
Defections are head spinning for Westminster — such a tribal place.
They are a morale lifting fillip for the party of the new arrival, and debilitating for the party they have departed, particularly when it from the governing party to the main opposition party. Why?
They personify very starkly what an opposition party is seeking to do on a far wider scale — tempt people who recently backed the Conservatives to switch to backing Labour.
And the party political words of the defecting MP have an additional capacity to wound given their previous political home.
"Under Rishi Sunak, the Conservatives have become a byword for incompetence and division."
It is the sort of thing you wouldn’t be surprised to hear from a career Labour MP. But these are the words of someone who was a Conservative MP a matter of hours ago.
Labour will retain their existing candidate in Dover and Deal at the general election and Natalie Elphicke will stand down, we’re told.
But Keir Starmer will delight in the pictures of him welcoming Natalie Elphicke to his side of the House of Commons.
And expect to see the two of them together shortly doing the handshakes, warm words and broad smiles for the cameras.

 

[ainsworth74]

I've long maintained that Rishi's strategy is to simply not hold an election and allow by-elections and defections to achieve the same result

What's the Goverment's majority now down to?

 

[telstarbox]

44, and they started on 87 after the 2019 election. Not encouraging for them!

 

[Cletus]

Elphicke won't be missed whichever party she represents.

 

[nw1]

Elphicke is claiming that one of the reasons to abandon the Tory Party is for reasons related to immigration, and she appears to be on the "restrictions" side.

Labour are generally more "pro" when it comes to immigration so it's a slightly puzzling defection to me - unlike Poulter she didn't seem to be particularly on the liberal wing of the Tory party.

Perhaps she's more left-wing on other matters compared to the Tory norm?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

In other news, Natalie Elphicke has just defected to Labour at the start of PMQs. Anyone know if she aligns much with current Labour policies?

She's a rabid Brexiteer and a member of the European Research Group (ERG).
She's also massively in favour of all the third-country controls on trade and immigration at ports for the jobs it creates in Dover.
Labour should welcome disaffected one-nation Tories but she is definitely not one of those.
She would oppose any Labour attempt to improve relations with the EU.

 

[brad465]

Elphicke is claiming that one of the reasons to abandon the Tory Party is for reasons related to immigration, and she appears to be on the "restrictions" side.

Labour are generally more "pro" when it comes to immigration so it's a slightly puzzling defection to me - unlike Poulter she didn't seem to be particularly on the liberal wing of the Tory party.

Perhaps she's more left-wing on other matters compared to the Tory norm?

There are MPs well-known for certain stances but we have absolutely no idea regarding other areas. For example, Braverman could be a full-on communist economically for all we know, she's only made her views on immigration and law and order known.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

44, and they started on 87 after the 2019 election. Not encouraging for them!

I would imagine their effective majority is higher because of the number of Tory MPs who have lost the party whip and therefore don't count in the official figures as Tory MPs, but would vote with the Government on most issues.

I'd hazard a guess it would take another 15-20 defections before the Government would start to have difficulty getting legislation through the Commons, and maybe 25-30 more defections to put Rishi Sunak at serious risk of losing a No Confidence Vote. Neither figure seems plausible in the few months before the next election.

I do wonder though whether we might see a few more defections now. One defection is a rare story, but two in quick succession starts to give a sense of normality about it - which could well encourage other wavering Tory MPs. There are after all a lot of Tory MPs who are either standing down or certain to lose their seats and so have little to lose career-wise by defecting. It's a pretty fair bet that at least some of those are very unhappy about the Rishi Sunak's Government.

 

[sor]

can't really work out why they took her in. With Poulter they could say he has the medical credentials and the only "baggage" is his voting record, but Elphicke is a world apart.

I'm sure it temporarily looks good to take in the MP for Dover as a condemnation of how the Tories are handling the boats issue, but it's hard not to see this as yet another example of how Labour are moving ever closer to the Tories

 

[birchesgreen]

She's standing down at the next election, just helps reduce Sunak's majority a bit and gives the Knight a little extra firepower to use against the PM.

 

[Typhoon]

Elphicke is claiming that one of the reasons to abandon the Tory Party is for reasons related to immigration, and she appears to be on the "restrictions" side.

Labour are generally more "pro" when it comes to immigration so it's a slightly puzzling defection to me - unlike Poulter she didn't seem to be particularly on the liberal wing of the Tory party.

She keeps going on about everything being the fault of the French and wanting to send the 'small boat' people back to France (I suppose this is an improvement on Rwanda). Completely ineffective over P&O. I will be watching at least part of South East Today on mute. If I lived in Dover, I wouldn't vote for her whatever rosette she wore. The most positive thing I can say about her is that she is an improvement on her ex-husband

Perhaps she's more left-wing on other matters compared to the Tory norm?

If she is, she has hidden it well.

I wonder how that'll work out for candidates at the next election. Labour already has a candidate in place in Dover, which I'd put as a reasonably safe Tory seat with (before Elphicke's defection) an outside chance of Labour taking it. Probably a near-certainty of Labour taking it if they are able to persuade their current candidate to stand aside for Elphicke.

The council is Labour, 8 out of 12 councillors representing the town are Labour, the ex pit villages are Labour, Deal is mixed, only rural parts are solid Tory. Electoral Calculus predicts 92% Labour win in a general election (although that might go down now, my understanding is that Mrs Elphicke is not over popular.)

 

[brad465]

The council is Labour, 8 out of 12 councillors representing the town are Labour, the ex pit villages are Labour, Deal is mixed, only rural parts are solid Tory. Electoral Calculus predicts 92% Labour win in a general election (although that might go down now, my understanding is that Mrs Elphicke is not over popular.)

She's reported to be standing down, so she won't be on the ballot there, it'll still be the already chosen Labour candidate.

 

[NeilCr]

She keeps going on about everything being the fault of the French and wanting to send the 'small boat' people back to France (I suppose this is an improvement on Rwanda). Completely ineffective over P&O. I will be watching at least part of South East Today on mute. If I lived in Dover, I wouldn't vote for her whatever rosette she wore. The most positive thing I can say about her is that she is an improvement on her ex-husband


If she is, she has hidden it well.


The council is Labour, 8 out of 12 councillors representing the town are Labour, the ex pit villages are Labour, Deal is mixed, only rural parts are solid Tory. Electoral Calculus predicts 92% Labour win in a general election (although that might go down now, my understanding is that Mrs Elphicke is not over popular.)

The Labour candidate for Dover and Deal, Mike Tapp, is good. Ex soldier, three tours of Afghanistan I think (?) so that will probably counter some of the losses because of Elphicke's defection

The whole thing is strange. It's awful for Sunak but a double edged sword for Starmer. Elphicke was in the ERG and New Conservatives and some of her stated views will be anathema to Labour MPs. And her support of her husband about the sexual assault charges didn't and doesn't sit well with a number of female Labour MPs.

She's very interested in housing so that bit I can get. But the rest of it.....

There are now two MPs from different wings of the Tory party who have defected to Labour and are not standing at the next general election

Perhaps something more is going on?

 

[75A]

For me it just smacks of rats and sinking ships.

 

[Typhoon]

She's reported to be standing down, so she won't be on the ballot there, it'll still be the already chosen Labour candidate.

I realise that, my point that it was far from a safe Tory seat as mentioned in #1870. I would be surprised if the local Labour party would want her.

The Labour candidate for Dover and Deal, Mike Tapp, is good. Ex soldier, three tours of Afghanistan I think (?) so that will probably counter some of the losses because of Elphicke's defection

And he has been actively canvassing the constituency so has 'name' recognition. The seat was Labour during the Blair years.

Your point about Housing is well made. That is something she appears to know something about and could make a difference in that sphere.

 

[Gloster]

If I were cynical I might wonder if she is hoping that by defecting and then not standing, she will put herself in Labour’s good books and be rewarded after the election with the cushy and well-paid chairmanship of a government backed organisation. Whether Labour will start off like that I know not, so she may be out of luck.

 

[nw1]

For me it just smacks of rats and sinking ships.

Why would she defect to Labour though? Why not just give up the Tory whip and remain in post as an independent?

I realise that, my point that it was far from a safe Tory seat as mentioned in #1870. I would be surprised if the local Labour party would want her.


And he has been actively canvassing the constituency so has 'name' recognition. The seat was Labour during the Blair years.

Your point about Housing is well made. That is something she appears to know something about and could make a difference in that sphere.

I would agree that Labour have a chance of taking Dover, though perhaps local anti-immigration sentiment might make it a Tory hold (or should we say Tory regain?)

My guess now, after the local elections, is that Labour could retake just about anything they held in 1997. I'd say it's odds on for Nuneaton to go Labour and Tamworth and Wellingborough to be Labour holds, for example. A few months ago I'd have had those as all remaining in the Tory camp with Labour gains restricted to larger towns in the south such as Milton Keynes and Swindon.

Sadly though I suspect the seats of Braverman and Jenrick will be Tory holds. Anderson will probably hold Ashfield as a Reform candidate though I think we're certain to see the back of Gullis.

She's a rabid Brexiteer and a member of the European Research Group (ERG).
She's also massively in favour of all the third-country controls on trade and immigration at ports for the jobs it creates in Dover.
Labour should welcome disaffected one-nation Tories but she is definitely not one of those.
She would oppose any Labour attempt to improve relations with the EU.

Just as well it doesn't look like she'll be standing, in that case.

 

[YorkRailFan]

Kate Osamor has had the Labour whip restored after an internal investigation was conducted into her comments on Holocaust Memorial Day.

The MP for Edmonton apologised for sending her local party members a message saying Gaza should be remembered as a genocide on the eve of the memorial day.

Osamor, a former shadow development secretary, had said there was an “international duty” to remember the victims of the Holocaust, as well as “more recent genocides in Cambodia, Rwanda, Bosnia and now Gaza”.She later tweeted an apology, in which she said: “Holocaust Memorial Day is a day to remember the 6 million Jews killed in the Holocaust and the genocides that have occurred since. I apologise for any offence caused by my reference to the ongoing humanitarian disaster in Gaza as part of that period of remembrance.”

The decision to readmit her to the party was confirmed by Labour’s chief whip, Alan Campbell.

The Guardian understands Osamor was administratively suspended from the party shortly after her comments came to light, and has been given a formal written warning.

A senior Labour figure had questioned the timing of her readmission, claiming the whips’ office had ignored outstanding complaints that had been made to the party.
A number of Labour MPs had voiced their concerns over Osamor’s investigation , given it had been expected a decision would be made after three months. Some went further, noting how long it had taken the party to make a decision over Diane Abbott’s future. It has been more than a year since Abbott was suspended from the party.

“Why have they [Osamor and Abbott] suffered worse treatment than their white male counterparts?” a senior Labour MP said.

A Labour party spokesperson said: “The chief whip has today restored the Labour whip to Kate Osamor MP. This follows a full investigation by the Labour party into complaints received about a social media post she made in January.”

Osamor added: “I am grateful to the Labour party for their investigation into my conduct and I accept the outcome in full. I want to unreservedly apologise again for my comments. I made remarks which were insensitive, inappropriate, and which I apologise for and regret.
“I will continue to reach out to Jewish stakeholders and the community. I am committed to ensuring that I don’t fall short of the highest standards. I look forward to continuing to represent my constituents of Edmonton in Westminster as a Labour MP.”

The news broke hours after the Tory MP Natalie Elphicke was welcomed into the Labour party, leaving Osamor and Abbott “out of the Labour fold”, and some MPs frustrated. Another senior Labour figure said: “Abbott represents true Labour values. She has experienced so much abuse on a personal level and was quick to apologise. Why is her apology not enough?”

This year, Martin Forde KC, the author of a report into the Labour party’s culture, said he had been concerned about a growing “perception” that someone closer to the leadership’s politics would not be treated as harshly as others with different politics.“Perception was the thing that concerned myself and the peers that assisted me. If you want a fair and transparent system, it has to deal with things consistently,” he told the BBC.

“I’m aware, from discussions with some of the MPs within the party who might be described as more left-leaning, that they feel when it comes to disciplinary action taken against them, things move rather slowly, but if you’re in the right faction of the party, as it were, then things are either dealt with more leniently or more swiftly,” he added.

A Jewish Labour Movement spokesperson said: “Kate Osamor’s original actions and non-apology were disgraceful and smeared the memory of all those who died in the Holocaust and subsequent genocides in Cambodia, Darfur, Rwanda and Bosnia, as commemorated by the Holocaust Memorial Day Trust. It is right that, as we understand, she has received a formal written warning from the Labour party.

Kate Osamor has Labour whip restored after investigation into Gaza genocide comments

Exclusive: MP apologised for saying Gaza should be remembered as a genocide on eve of Holocaust Memorial Day

www.theguardian.com

Another pro-Palestine MP has the Whip restored, Labour's seats in the Commons has increased yet again this week.

 

[edwin_m]

Comments here tend to confirm my initial reaction to the news on Elphicke. I can't really imagine her fitting in with Labour and I think many existing members will be asking WTF beyond the ability to lob another brick at Sunak.

If I were cynical I might wonder if she is hoping that by defecting and then not standing, she will put herself in Labour’s good books and be rewarded after the election with the cushy and well-paid chairmanship of a government backed organisation. Whether Labour will start off like that I know not, so she may be out of luck.

Lord High Warden of the Cinque Ports is local, and vacant...

 

[Busaholic]

Who's next? Liz Truss??? It's an absolute travesty that Labour have accepted Elphicke's 'conversion', which is about as honest as Russell Brand's. Loads of Labour backbenchers must be spitting with rage, and not just those on the Left either. Why do Labour appear so weak they'll accept just anyone, they're not in the position of Galloway's mob announcing prize idiot Monty Panesar as a candidate to try to stir up tensions in Southall.

Dan Poulter, okay-ish, though he couldn't have presented a more miserable picture in his initial position on the Labour benches, never raising his head from a downwards position and looking more like a hostage than anything else. I thought Sue Gray was supposed to be having a positive influence on Labour's thinking and trying to prevent the tribal thinking that helped ensure they lost power in 2010.

 

[NeilCr]

Who's next? Liz Truss??? It's an absolute travesty that Labour have accepted Elphicke's 'conversion', which is about as honest as Russell Brand's. Loads of Labour backbenchers must be spitting with rage, and not just those on the Left either. Why do Labour appear so weak they'll accept just anyone, they're not in the position of Galloway's mob announcing prize idiot Monty Panesar as a candidate to try to stir up tensions in Southall.

Dan Poulter, okay-ish, though he couldn't have presented a more miserable picture in his initial position on the Labour benches, never raising his head from a downwards position and looking more like a hostage than anything else. I thought Sue Gray was supposed to be having a positive influence on Labour's thinking and trying to prevent the tribal thinking that helped ensure they lost power in 2010.

it's definitely hold your nose time. I'm in a close by constituency and the Elphickes are definitely unsavoury

I guess it's a purely political calculation which means I'd disagree (to an extent anyway) that it's weak. The damage to Sunak and the Tories outweighs the unease about having Elphicke on their benches for the next six months or so. As Typhoon has said Labour has a strong candidate in Dover and Deal who is likely to win so locally probably little damage

Nationwide - I guess away from the more politically interested it will just be seen as more evidence that Sunak is on a downward slide

I certainly don't like it but I can see the reasoning behind it.

 

[Busaholic]

it's definitely hold your nose time. I'm in a close by constituency and the Elphickes are definitely unsavoury

I guess it's a purely political calculation which means I'd disagree (to an extent anyway) that it's weak. The damage to Sunak and the Tories outweighs the unease about having Elphicke on their benches for the next six months or so. As Typhoon has said Labour has a strong candidate in Dover and Deal who is likely to win so locally probably little damage

Nationwide - I guess away from the more politically interested it will just be seen as more evidence that Sunak is on a downward slide

I certainly don't like it but I can see the reasoning behind it.

How many extra voters will Labour gain at the General Election as a result of this cynical move? A handful at most, I'd suggest, even in Dover. On the other hand, it might well lose both existing Labour voters and some who might otherwise have voted Labour. I've just heard on the news that Neil Kinnock has queried the rationale, and there's someone who knows firsthand what it is to have an expected election win dissolve into the ether.

Natalie Elphicke should never have been chosen by the Tories as their candidate to replace her jailed husband, whom by public remarks she has identified as the 'victim' in his sex crimes by virtue of being so 'handsome' and powerful. More fool the people who ever voted her in.

Starmer's stand on being more principled than Corbyn is certainly growing more doubtful by the month to a 'liberal' like me.

By the way, Monty 'Plonker' Panesar, who's never voted in an election in his life, has now withdrawn from standing as a candidate for the so-called Workers Party.

How many extra voters will Labour gain at the General Election as a result of this cynical move? A handful at most, I'd suggest, even in Dover. On the other hand, it might well lose both existing Labour voters and some who might otherwise have voted Labour. I've just heard on the news that Neil Kinnock has queried the rationale, and there's someone who knows firsthand what it is to have an expected election win dissolve into the ether.

Natalie Elphicke should never have been chosen by the Tories as their candidate to replace her jailed husband, whom by public remarks she has identified as the 'victim' in his sex crimes by virtue of being so 'handsome' and powerful. More fool the people who ever voted her in.

Starmer's stand on being more principled than Corbyn is certainly growing more doubtful by the month to a 'liberal' like me.

By the way, Monty 'Plonker' Panesar, who's never voted in an election in his life, has now withdrawn from standing as a stooge (sorry,candidate) for the so-called Workers Party.

 

[NeilCr]

How many extra voters will Labour gain at the General Election as a result of this cynical move? A handful at most, I'd suggest, even in Dover. On the other hand, it might well lose both existing Labour voters and some who might otherwise have voted Labour. I've just heard on the news that Neil Kinnock has queried the rationale, and there's someone who knows firsthand what it is to have an expected election win dissolve into the ether.

Natalie Elphicke should never have been chosen by the Tories as their candidate to replace her jailed husband, whom by public remarks she has identified as the 'victim' in his sex crimes by virtue of being so 'handsome' and powerful. More fool the people who ever voted her in.

Starmer's stand on being more principled than Corbyn is certainly growing more doubtful by the month to a 'liberal' like me.

By the way, Monty 'Plonker' Panesar, who's never voted in an election in his life, has now withdrawn from standing as a candidate for the so-called Workers Party.

That’s the calculation Starmer has made - that the anti Tory feeling in general will count more than the distaste about Elphicke

It’s not about the number of votes, necessarily, more the direction of travel of the Tories losing defectors left, right and centre . That’s the message that Starmer wants to get across I’d have thought

I’m a Labour supporter and I don’t like it at all but it won’t change the way I vote and, I guess, that’s part of Starmer’s thought process

Saw that about Panesar. After his recent car crash interview can’t say I’m surprised

It does bring into question Galloway’s selection processes for sure

 

[Typhoon]

Interesting discussion on South East today, A Labour councillor described Elphicke as toxic and divisive 'who has no place in the Labour Party'

Rosie Duffield (MP for Canterbury) said that she was confused over whether it was her views or Elphicke's which held sway in Labour.

Charlotte Wright (political correspondent and, in my view, pretty sound) reported that Labour have confirmed that they had offered her a position advising on housing policy if they enter government, they have denied accusations that she will be offered a place in the Lords, though.

 

[NeilCr]

Interesting discussion on South East today, A Labour councillor described Elphicke as toxic and divisive 'who has no place in the Labour Party'

Rosie Duffield (MP for Canterbury) said that she was confused over whether it was her views or Elphicke's which held sway in Labour.

Charlotte Wright (political correspondent and, in my view, pretty sound) reported that Labour have confirmed that they had offered her a position advising on housing policy if they enter government, they have denied accusations that she will be offered a place in the Lords, though.

Duffield, of course, has had her own issues within the Labour Party. She did post a neutralish welcoming message for Elphicke

Got a lot of time for her. Good constituency MP and her speech about DV was so brave

Labour have somehow made this more about them than the Tories who it has damaged too

I suspect it’ll die down and the Mail etc will be back on Angela Rayner again soon!

 

[nw1]

Kate Osamor has Labour whip restored after investigation into Gaza genocide comments

Exclusive: MP apologised for saying Gaza should be remembered as a genocide on eve of Holocaust Memorial Day

www.theguardian.com

Another pro-Palestine MP has the Whip restored, Labour's seats in the Commons has increased yet again this week.

Dare I say it good? I realise this is a controversial opinion but one has to remember that Osamor was doubtless very deeply distressed and angered by the bombing of innocent Gazan citizens and went over-the-top with her language. Such things certainly deserve forgiveness.

If Elphicke is welcome in the Labour Party, then Osamor should certainly be.

 

[Bantamzen]

Comments here tend to confirm my initial reaction to the news on Elphicke. I can't really imagine her fitting in with Labour and I think many existing members will be asking WTF beyond the ability to lob another brick at Sunak.

Labour are seemingly being sucked into the void right of centre that the Tories left as they shunted to the extreme right...

Honestly its such an odd move that whilst the above is mostly tongue in cheek, there is part of me really starting to wonder about Labour's direction. I don't think this story has been fully played out yet.

 

[birchesgreen]

I wonder if they are starting to overthink it.