More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[Howardh]

One advantage of what has been done over canning it, sacking everyone and selling the land is that it is very unlikely we will have a Tory Government in 2 years time, so whoever it is can then make their own decision.

I'm actually surprised they don't pass the can to us and have a referendum (build fully/part build/abandon) and then it's out of their hands "we do this because we were told". Admittedly the building work has probably gone too far now to abandon.

 

[43066]

One advantage of what has been done over canning it, sacking everyone and selling the land is that it is very unlikely we will have a Tory Government in 2 years time, so whoever it is can then make their own decision.

I sort of get the impression they would love to have done just that, but feel it wouldn’t be politically viable to do so.

 

[Howardh]

What will this rearranged opening of HS2 mean for service frequencies? I can’t see it as too popular if it only starts and terminates at OOC, if they slash services from Euston as planned they will be very overcrowded as many will still prefer travelling into and out of Euston to OOC.

It won't be much use for those in the north wanting to travel to the south-east, as you would alight at OOC, then have another change somewhere in London. Today you change for the tube at Euston and then onwards from Victoria or London Bridge. So same number of changes but you start more-or-less central London.

 

[RochdalePioneers]

I think the WCML link has gone as well. Not mentioned at all today. OOC won't have capacity to handle many terminating trains, nor will the Liz line cope with lots and lots of terminating passengers. Which all suggests Birmingham Not Interchange to London Wherethehellisthis as the only completed section until the Manchester extension justifies the Euston extension.

Then we have the implications of this. The faster you go the more energy you burn. Slower running cuts capacity but that isn't needed. Watch the top speed drop again. Think 395s on HS1...

 

[duncanp]

I was recently corrected for saying this would only go to Birmingham. Now Manchester is in serious doubt....but worst of all, Euston?!

Without a central London connection, from my very northerly perspective, this is a pointless exercise. OOC is miles away!

The most depressing part of all this, the effective scaling back, is that we now wont see a proper infrastructure project for decades, if not our lifetimes including for those of us under 40.

This is in no way something to celebrate and only further represents the decline of the State.

Whitehall couldn't grow a sunflower, let alone an economy.

If HS2 only goes to Old Oak Common, I may as well use existing services from Birmingham New Street to Euston.

Not only is Curzon Street further away from where I live than New Street, but having to use the Elizabeth Line from Old Oak Common into Central London will negate any time savings achieved by using the high speed line.

It's rather like terminating the East Coast Main Line at Stevenage or Potters Bar, or terminating London to Glasgow trains at Motherwell.

I agree though that this delay kicks the project into the long grass until after the next election, where it will have to be retrieved by whoever is the Prime Minister.

The rate things are going, I will be six feet under by the time there is a full service on HS2 from Birmingham to London.

 

[Howardh]

I think the WCML link has gone as well. Not mentioned at all today. OOC won't have capacity to handle many terminating trains, nor will the Liz line cope with lots and lots of terminating passengers. Which all suggests Birmingham Not Interchange to London Wherethehellisthis as the only completed section until the Manchester extension justifies the Euston extension.

Then we have the implications of this. The faster you go the more energy you burn. Slower running cuts capacity but that isn't needed. Watch the top speed drop again. Think 395s on HS1...

The argument will be "it's not about speed, it's about capacity on the original lines" and if all that existed was Birmingham to OOC, without stops at 125mph, what's that, 50 mins?? But it doesn't solve the capacity issues north of Rugby!

 

[Wynd]

Every syllable of that written by the Treasury.

The stultifying lack of ambition and indefensible dilution of this is almost as breath-taking as it is depressingly predictable.

Global Britain, competing its way to success?

Don't make me laugh.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I don't even know what a "billion" is in this context. 100m? 1000m? A million million?? I reckon the wider general public is just like me, we can comprehend, say, £10m - let's say the cost of a new primary school or something, but when you get to a billion it's an abstract number.
I heard on Sky that the cost today of HS2 completion was "near 100 billion". Of course that's over x number of years, but how many millions do they actually mean?

In financing (from US practice) a billion is 1,000 million, which we used to call a milliard.
The scientific billion is 1 million million, but they tend to use powers of 10 now, rather than a name.
So a financial billion is 10 to the power 9, while the scientific version is 10 to the power 12.
Predictably, this forum doesn't seem to deal with superscript notation like that!

Billion tends to work for state-sized budgets these days.
The Americans are up to trillions now (a financial trillion is 1,000 billion, or the same as the scientific billion).

 

[camflyer]

Disagree. Yes there are bound to be delays to 2a and 2b as this article states but I simply don't believe that its going to be left as an OOC to Birmingham route, when so much work has gone on at Euston already and as 2a costs are significantly lower and offer a lot of bang for buck. Maybe 2b gets incorporated into NPR instead but I think thats very unlikely.

Whatever's people's opinions are on how much in favour Starmer /Burnham are of it..... its an open goal to attack the government on this if there is no commitment to build the other phases, when its going to be in their manifesto that Labour will complete it.

I'm sure both main parties will have a commitent to "completing" HS2 in their manifestos, they will just be vague about the timelines. Even the Greens are slowly coming around to supporting it after being against previously.

Starmer has always been lukewarm at best over HS2 because of the effects around Camden and Euston in his own constituency but I can't see him scrapping it. The best advocates have always been the city mayors along the route.

 

[Howardh]

In financing (from US practice) a billion is 1,000 million, which we used to call a milliard.
The scientific billion is 1 million million, but they tend to use powers of 10 now, rather than a name.
So a financial billion is 10 to the power 9, while the scientific version is 10 to the power 12.
Predictably, this forum doesn't seem to deal with superscript notation like that!

Billion tends to work for state-sized budgets these days.
The Americans are up to trillions now (a financial trillion is 1,000 billion, or the same as the scientific billion).

I've just given you that look Hacker gives to Sir Humphrey!

Financial billion is the 1,000,000,000 (1 to the power 9) so the ultimate cost of HS2 could be, hang on, £100,000,000,000? That's over £15,000 per person (roughly) in the UK assuming appx 65m or more likely £1500/yr per person spread over 10 yrs.

So a family of four (two adults/two kids) is contributing £6k/yr towards this!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I think the WCML link has gone as well. Not mentioned at all today. OOC won't have capacity to handle many terminating trains, nor will the Liz line cope with lots and lots of terminating passengers. Which all suggests Birmingham Not Interchange to London Wherethehellisthis as the only completed section until the Manchester extension justifies the Euston extension.

The much-publicised HS2 bridge slide over the M42 at Christmas was actually on the Delta-Handsacre section, north of the OOC-Curzon St route.

HS2 completes World-First box ‘bridge slide’ over the M42 in Warwickshire

In a huge feat of engineering, HS2 Ltd has delivered the world’s longest box slide to move a 12,600 tonne bridge into place over the M42 in Warwickshire. The innovative method dramatically cuts disruption to road users and is part of HS2’s plan to reduce the impact of construction on local...

mediacentre.hs2.org.uk

The DfT announcement states that OOC-Curzon St will be prioiritised, with Euston and Phase 2a rephased.
That still leaves scope for Delta-Handsacre to be delivered as planned.
But it does seem likely that a captive OOC-Curzon St service will start before any through running on the WCML.

Transport Secretary sets out record investment plans for transport network

Over £40 billion will be invested in transformational transport schemes over the next 2 financial years across the country.

www.gov.uk

With over £20 billion spent on Phase One already, the government will prioritise delivering the opening stage of HS2, with the first high-speed rail services running between new stations at Old Oak Common in west London and Curzon Street in Birmingham by the early 2030s. This will be transformative for passengers and communities, ensuring that the earliest benefits of HS2 are retained – creating jobs, attracting investment and sparking housing and commercial regeneration along and beyond the route.

The government also remains fully committed to delivering HS2 from Euston to Manchester. However, in recognition of inflationary pressures and to help balance the nation’s books, the next 2 years will be used to rephase construction and optimise future delivery of Phase 2a between Birmingham and Crewe so this is done in the most cost-effective way. This aims to deliver high-speed services to Crewe and the North West as soon as possible after accounting for the rephasing of construction.

 

[Nottingham59]

I think the WCML link has gone as well. Not mentioned at all today.

I fear you are right. We'll have to see. And remember, Andy Street (Mayor of West Midlands) is Conservative; Andy Burnham (mayor of Greater Manchester) is Labour. Who do you think would get favoured by this government?

And if the link is delayed until the Crewe-Manchester leg is built, then they may well discover they don't need it at all. (Tough on Macclesfield and Stoke though)

OOC won't have capacity to handle many terminating trains,

OOC has six platforms, so it should be able to handle a fair number of terminating trains. If Euston can handle 17tph with 10 platforms, then I'd expect OOC to handle 6-8tph, even without grade separation on the approaches.

nor will the Liz line cope with lots and lots of terminating passengers.

The Liz Line could eat HS2 for breakfast.

• HS2 at full capacity = 17tph x 1100pax (all seated) = 18,700pax/hr
• EL at full capacity = 24tph x 1500pax (most standing) = 36,000pax/hr

The 12tph EL trains that start empty from OOC would be enough by themselves.

having to use the Elizabeth Line from Old Oak Common into Central London will negate any time savings achieved by using the high speed line.

OOC to Tottenham Court Road is only three stops on the Elizabeth line. Same as the Northern Line from Euston. I think the original planning said it would be faster for many travellers to Central London to change at OOC. Makes you wonder why they thought it was necessary to have two HS2 stations in London at all ....

 

[SirDanielGooch]

I'm sure both main parties will have a commitent to "completing" HS2 in their manifestos, they will just be vague about the timelines. Even the Greens are slowly coming around to supporting it after being against previously.

Starmer has always been lukewarm at best over HS2 because of the effects around Camden and Euston in his own constituency but I can't see him scrapping it. The best advocates have always been the city mayors along the route.

Labour’s immediate response is, from Sky News:
“Labour said the latest delay meant the North was again having to "pay the price" for government failures.

Louise Haigh, the shadow transport secretary, said: "Tens of thousands of jobs, and billions in economic growth are dependent on this project.”

Current position is very much in favour of HS2, especially the northern legs. Time will tell if that translates to their handling of the pursestrings if, as widely expected, they get into power.

I personally think it’s just too much of a political open goal for them to ignore in terms of reclaiming “levelling up” and the infamous red wall as their own

 

[43066]

OOC to Tottenham Court Road is only three stops on the Elizabeth line. Same as the Northern Line from Euston. I think the original planning said it would be faster for many travellers to Central London to change at OOC. Makes you wonder why they thought it was necessary to have two HS2 stations in London at all ....

But that will involve a load of faff changing and sitting on the EL, rather than being dropped straight into Euston as originally intended. Euston is better placed for much of the city and Canary Wharf etc. Any time saving will be lost for most, unless WCML services are slowed down to massage the figures, of course (similar to how SE classic services were slowed once HS1 opened)!

 

[Nottingham59]

But that will involve a load of faff changing and sitting on the EL, rather than being dropped straight into Euston as originally intended. Euston is better placed for much of the city and Canary Wharf etc. Any time saving will be lost for most, unless WCML services are slowed down to massage the figures, of course (similar to how SE classic services were slowed once HS1 opened)!

Hmm. I would have thought the Elizabeth Line was better for Canary Wharf, surely? And Liverpool Street too, come to think of it. I'll see if I can find the original time-of-travel maps they produced way back.

 

[Killingworth]

I suspect not a few of us can remember the trials and tribulations of geting HS1 from the Channel, first to Waterloo and finally to St Pancras. It seemed to take for ever but we got there in the end. We have form on projects like this.

Shame HS1 probably won't be on a direct link to HS2, although an underground travelator from Euston might be incorporated in tbe final design.

 

[RochdalePioneers]

I suspect not a few of us can remember the trials and tribulations of geting HS1 from the Channel, first to Waterloo and finally to St Pancras. It seemed to take for ever but we got there in the end. We have form on projects like this.

Shame HS1 probably won't be on a direct link to HS2, although an underground travelator from Euston might be incorporated in tbe final design.

Simply stop all Eurostar services at Stratford and the Liz line becomes the connection between the two...

 

[stuu]

But that will involve a load of faff changing and sitting on the EL, rather than being dropped straight into Euston as originally intended. Euston is better placed for much of the city and Canary Wharf etc. Any time saving will be lost for most, unless WCML services are slowed down to massage the figures, of course (similar to how SE classic services were slowed once HS1 opened)!

Liverpool St is ~15 minutes from OOC on the EL, Canary Wharf ~22.

Depends where you are heading at the destination of course, but there isn't anything much in it

 

[43066]

Hmm. I would have thought the Elizabeth Line was better for Canary Wharf, surely? And Liverpool Street too, come to think of it. I'll see if I can find the original time-of-travel maps they produced way back.

Liverpool St is ~15 minutes from OOC on the EL, Canary Wharf ~22.

Depends where you are heading at the destination of course, but there isn't anything much in it

Fair point (it’s still quite hard to get used to the new EL connections!). I suppose in an ideal world there would have been a combined kings + St P and Euston EL station.

 

[camflyer]

I suspect not a few of us can remember the trials and tribulations of geting HS1 from the Channel, first to Waterloo and finally to St Pancras. It seemed to take for ever but we got there in the end. We have form on projects like this.

Shame HS1 probably won't be on a direct link to HS2, although an underground travelator from Euston might be incorporated in tbe final design.

The scrapping of the HS1-HS2 link was one of the cost cuts which I was at ease with as I would have thought that the market for direct Birmingham to Paris or Manchester to Brussels direct rail services would be rather limited. As long as the connection between Euston and St Pancras is as made as easy as possible then it shouldn't be a problem and easier than changing planes at Heathrow - and much easier than connecting from the Gare du Nord to Gare de Lyon in Paris.

 

[Bald Rick]

Sigh.

There is so much on this thread that is assumed and incorrect. I suggest everyone reads the Government announcement - and carefully

The project is not being paused for two years.

It was always the case that OOC - Curzon St would open first (a captive system), followed by Delta Jn to Handsacre for OOC - ‘the north’ trains. This doesn’t change, nor does the timing of that in the ‘2029-2033’ range. I expect to be on the first train.

Euston - OOC and Handsacre - Crewe were slated to open later, but at the same time. The announcement today is not of a two year delay, but of using the next two years to rephase 2a and deliver an ‘affordable‘ Euston. Euston is a massive job, as anyone who has looked at the site and the very large holes in the ground and thousands of tonnes of concrete already poured will testify. Work will continue.

The Government has restated its commitment to Euston to Manchester. Whilst it may be for the next Government to progress delivery, it would also be that next Government to decide if they didn’t want to do so. The chances of that are effectively nil, as by then the bill will be an Act, land will be purchased, and the business case even better.


For those that think it should have been built north to south - please do think about that. Specifically, about the benefits of doing so, compared to going south to north.

 

[matacaster]

I have always said that the govts original intention was a fast london to birmingham commuter railway. The only way they could get away with that was to pretend that other places such as Manchester and Leeds would also benefit. Then capacity was the mantra, not speed. COVID meant far fewer people commuted, reducing revenue drastically. They gold plated the southern section with lengthy tunnels and money no object Euston plans so that there was nothing at all for Leeds or Sheffield and delays for Manchester. If it's simply about capacity, then Birmingham - London commuters can suffer the pain and slightly longer journey times due to changing at OOC. It's difficult to see what the north gets out of this ill-advised HS2. Should have gone for that freight only railway based on Great Central and crossing over to Liverpool me

 

[absolutelymilk]

I've just given you that look Hacker gives to Sir Humphrey!

Financial billion is the 1,000,000,000 (1 to the power 9) so the ultimate cost of HS2 could be, hang on, £100,000,000,000? That's over £15,000 per person (roughly) in the UK assuming appx 65m or more likely £1500/yr per person spread over 10 yrs.

So a family of four (two adults/two kids) is contributing £6k/yr towards this!

Think you might want to check your maths on that! £100 billion (100,000,000,000) divided by 65 million (65,000,000) is roughly £1,500. So £150 per person per year over ten years

 

[Royston Vasey]

I've just given you that look Hacker gives to Sir Humphrey!

Financial billion is the 1,000,000,000 (1 to the power 9) so the ultimate cost of HS2 could be, hang on, £100,000,000,000? That's over £15,000 per person (roughly) in the UK assuming appx 65m or more likely £1500/yr per person spread over 10 yrs.

So a family of four (two adults/two kids) is contributing £6k/yr towards this!

Factor of 10 out there fella

£100,000,000,000 / 65,000,000 = £1,500 per capita.

 

[snowball]

Mottram By-Pass at the end of the M67 (under discussion for 60 years, approved nearly 10 years ago, no spade in the ground yet).

No, it was only approved in November 2022. I think what happened nearly 10 years ago is that the version then under consideration was cut back to omit the bypass of Hollingworth and Tintwistle, and so stay outside the national park, and put back to the beginning of the approval process.

In financing (from US practice) a billion is 1,000 million, which we used to call a milliard.
The scientific billion is 1 million million, but they tend to use powers of 10 now, rather than a name.
So a financial billion is 10 to the power 9, while the scientific version is 10 to the power 12.
Predictably, this forum doesn't seem to deal with superscript notation like that!

Billion tends to work for state-sized budgets these days.
The Americans are up to trillions now (a financial trillion is 1,000 billion, or the same as the scientific billion).

I don't think anybody in the English-speaking world, whether in science or finance, has used what you call the "scientific" billion in the last 50 years or so. I would call it the continental billion. Whether it has continued to be used in other European languages I can't say.

 

[gazzaa2]

One advantage of what has been done over canning it, sacking everyone and selling the land is that it is very unlikely we will have a Tory Government in 2 years time, so whoever it is can then make their own decision.

The only reason it hasn't been canned is too many Tories/donors are making a killing off the land deals.

 

[Meerkat]

I've just given you that look Hacker gives to Sir Humphrey!

Financial billion is the 1,000,000,000 (1 to the power 9) so the ultimate cost of HS2 could be, hang on, £100,000,000,000? That's over £15,000 per person (roughly) in the UK assuming appx 65m or more likely £1500/yr per person spread over 10 yrs.

So a family of four (two adults/two kids) is contributing £6k/yr towards this!

Except its borrowed, and a good chunk of paying it back will come out of the fares paid by passengers.

 

[Nottingham59]

It was always the case that OOC - Curzon St would open first (a captive system), followed by Delta Jn to Handsacre for OOC - ‘the north’ trains. This doesn’t change, nor does the timing of that in the ‘2029-2033’ range.

I'm sure you're right. You usually are.

But this is the first time I have seen any mention of OOC-Curzon St being run in passenger service before OOC-Handsacre-WCML services. If this was mentioned in any official documentation I must have missed it. How long will this period be between the start of Curzon St services and the start of via-Handsacre services?

 

[Xavi]

Since the programme in the public domain is quite flexible, there’s no significant change. The media has invented quite a lot of headlines today. The official statement does not delay Manchester and Crewe is about optimising the procurement. Some but not significant Euston delay.

The principal purpose of today’s announcement was about portraying economic prudence to satisfy the right of the Tory party. Inflation (out of HS2 and contractor control) having created the cash flow problems.

 

[Meerkat]

I'm sure you're right. You usually are.

But this is the first time I have seen any mention of OOC-Curzon St being run in passenger service before OOC-Handsacre-WCML services. If this was mentioned in any official documentation I must have missed it. How long will this period be between the start of Curzon St services and the start of via-Handsacre services?

It would make sense to have a softish launch by having the new trains in public service limited to the HS2 infrastructure before risking them on the NR lines.