Passenger Numbers, Autumn 2022

[cuccir]

Anecdotal rather than systematic, but where I am (North East) there appears to have been a further uptick in passenger numbers in the last month, with the full resumption of the new college/university terms. Numbers seem higher on the commute in particular, but some off-peak increases too.

Is this repeated over the country? Has anyone else noticed a further rise in recent weeks? I wonder if there's Google data yet on commuting. Would be interested if this the point where we can say we have returned to 'normal'.

There are still fewer services than in 2019 so overall numbers must be down but this is the first time that my commute feels as busy as pre-Covid.

 

[lammergeier]

Certainly feels that way. Many services on XC are full and standing once again. I don't think the morning peak is as busy as BC times yet however - still a marked difference pre. 09.30. But we're getting there.

 

[yorksrob]

Commute into Leeds seems busier this week. No double seats left when I get on anymore !

 

[KGX]

London still feels nothing like pre Covid.

 

[Goldfish62]

London still feels nothing like pre Covid.

Central London. Inner and outer London are as busy as ever.

 

[bengley]

London still feels nothing like pre Covid.

Not many people who previously worked in central London have real jo- sorry jobs which can't be done from the comfort of their living room.

 

[43066]

Anecdotal rather than systematic, but where I am (North East) there appears to have been a further uptick in passenger numbers in the last month, with the full resumption of the new college/university terms. Numbers seem higher on the commute in particular, but some off-peak increases too.

Is this repeated over the country? Has anyone else noticed a further rise in recent weeks? I wonder if there's Google data yet on commuting. Would be interested if this the point where we can say we have returned to 'normal'.

There are still fewer services than in 2019 so overall numbers must be down but this is the first time that my commute feels as busy as pre-Covid.

Interestingly I’ve noticed this too over the last few weeks.

London still feels nothing like pre Covid.

I’d tend to disagree, having travelled Liverpool St. to London Bridge this morning and the numbers walking northbound into the city were (at least visually) similar to 2019 levels. Huge numbers using GTR services through London Bridge station itself, with many full and standing. Feeling increasingly “normal” which is great to see.

 

[DarloRich]

Anecdotally - weekend travel on intercity type services seems up. I have used Avanti, LNER, XC and a smidge of TPE. LNWR traffic also seems to be up into London and with the collages back even the chuggers are busier. I noticed this Sunday that the LNWR Crewe > London was very busy for the first time in ages.

Northern has been really busy into Leeds on the weekend even with the £2 flat fare on the bus as a competitor!

 

[JonathanH]

Huge numbers using GTR services through London Bridge station itself, with many full and standing

Full and standing on fewer services is still nothing like 2019 levels. How long does the full and standing period go on for? How many of the most lucrative longer distance commuters are travelling regularly? That has been indicated to be where the greatest revenue hit is.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Travelling home to Croydon off peak one evening about 19:00 last week and the Thameslink was so full people were left behind at London Bridge.

I was shocked - really felt like the old days. It was a leisure journey the missus will not make again.

 

[43096]

I noticed this Sunday that the LNWR Crewe > London was very busy for the first time in ages.

Which isn’t really surprising given Avanti’s inability to run anything like an acceptable service.

 

[43066]

Full and standing on fewer services is still nothing like 2019 levels. How long does the full and standing period go on for? How many of the most lucrative longer distance commuters are travelling regularly? That has been indicated to be where the greatest revenue hit is.

I think GTR is basically back to where it was, service wise?

The “high peak” is still markedly less pronounced, but mid-mornings are busier. Of course there are fewer season tickets being sold hence revenue will lag passenger numbers. But ultimately the point of the railway is to transport passengers not raise revenue…

 

[bramling]

I’d tend to disagree, having travelled Liverpool St. to London Bridge this morning and the numbers walking northbound into the city were (at least visually) similar to 2019 levels. Huge numbers using GTR services through London Bridge station itself, with many full and standing. Feeling increasingly “normal” which is great to see.

Certainly noticed same. The northbound Northern Line at Bank during the evening peak is something of a bellweather, and it's starting to feel very much like pre-Covid again.

The London peak now seems to resemble a provincial one, more concentrated around the 9-5 office day. What seems to be missing is what used to be the case on my local rail service, where trains were busy from around 0600 right through to 0900 and from 1600 through to 1930. Something that people moaning about overcrowding in Northern cities never seemed to quite appreciate - the 17:30 from Manchester or Leeds might be busy for its first few stops, whereas here it would have been *every* service for several hours, and for longer distances.

 

[jackot]

I would say that many leisure journeys have recovered back to 2019 levels, if not exceeded them - especially judging by how busy some of Crosscountry's services are. But the peak time London trains are still nowhere near as busy, thanks to people working from home. Most 12 cars leaving/arriving at Waterloo at weekday peak would have been full and standing pre-Covid, whereas today most still have seats free on an 8 carriage unit.

 

[bramling]

I think GTR is basically back to where it was, service wise?

In terms of Thameslink, on the GN side the Thameslink service *was* virtually 100% pre-Covid until this month, there have now been some off-peak reductions.

However there remain only 3x peak extras on the Peterborough route, all in peak flow direction only. Previously it was something like 7 in the morning peak, and 6 in the evening peak (I can't remember the exact number), plus an hourly down service right through the evening. Some of these were also 12-car, which isn't the case now, though I believe 12-car is to return on a limited basis in December.

Also missing are 6 Baldock services in each peak, a further 3 evening down services, and a considerable number of inner-suburban services on the Welwyn and Hertford to Moorgate route.

 

[Mag_seven]

How many of the most lucrative longer distance commuters are travelling regularly?

The London peak now seems to resemble a provincial one, more concentrated around the 9-5 office day.

The above makes me wonder if WFH is now confined largely to longer distance commuters?

 

[PG87]

Thameslink on the Sutton loop into Blackfriars/Farringdon was extremely busy this morning, standing only and some people left on platforms around Herne Hill/Loughborough Junction.

My train was probably the busiest service I have squeezed onto in a decade of commuting from various parts of London. I don't normally commute in rush hour anymore, is this normal between 8-9am now? And did they ever run 12 car trains on the Sutton loop?

 

[YorkshireBear]

Definitely busier in Leeds today, noticeably so both AM and PM.

 

[Goldfish62]

Certainly noticed same. The northbound Northern Line at Bank during the evening peak is something of a bellweather, and it's starting to feel very much like pre-Covid again.

The London peak now seems to resemble a provincial one, more concentrated around the 9-5 office day. What seems to be missing is what used to be the case on my local rail service, where trains were busy from around 0600 right through to 0900 and from 1600 through to 1930. Something that people moaning about overcrowding in Northern cities never seemed to quite appreciate - the 17:30 from Manchester or Leeds might be busy for its first few stops, whereas here it would have been *every* service for several hours, and for longer distances.

Certainly, SWR have stated that off-peak passengers numbers are now 100% of pre-Covid while peak numbers stand at just 53%

I can certainly see this on my local Waterloo-Reading services. Evenings and weekends are as busy as ever. Peak trains are also pretty much as busy as ever, but there's only 50% of the pre-Covid service level.

 

[JonathanH]

And did they ever run 12 car trains on the Sutton loop?

No. They can't run 12 car trains on the Sutton loop (well not in service anyway).

Evenings and weekends are as busy as ever.

It will be interesting to see what people make of the service west of Bracknell going down to hourly in the late evening, not that it was ever busy that far west.

The above makes me wonder if WFH is now confined largely to longer distance commuters?

Definitely something in that. Those with the longest commutes (and with longer days) among those who haven't returned. Those for whom it is reasonably easy to get to their workplace keener on returning.

 

[Goldfish62]

It will be interesting to see what people make of the service west of Bracknell going down to hourly in the late evening, not that it was ever busy that far west.

I think the good people of Wokingham will be somewhat displeased.

This change looks to save two diagrams from mid-evening onwards (seven down to five).

 

[Bantamzen]

Commute into Leeds seems busier this week. No double seats left when I get on anymore !

Early morning Aire & Wharfe services into Leeds (for example 06:16 Guiseley - Leeds, 06:12 / 06:46 Shipley - Leeds) still well below 2019 levels. Afternoons do seem a bit busier, but there are the £1 tickets still floating about so don't know if they a propping up numbers.

 

[davetheguard]

There's been some passenger counts recently on the Exmouth branch (which in lots of ways is the Exeter suburban railway) by the local rail users' group, and passenger numbers are at higher levels than pre-covid.

Other local trains in Devon feel equally busy, with standing in the peaks on 3 car 158s to Barnstaple & 4 car 150s to Paignton. Meanwhile, the recently re-opened line to Okehampton is supposedly carrying twice as many passengers as forecast......

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

But ultimately the point of the railway is to transport passengers not raise revenue…

Thats the view of most of us on here but not the DfT or specifically the Treasury is the problem although they seem more tolerable than i expected. That said the fiscal mess Kwarteng has created means politically he won't want to row back on the tax giveaway so risk is pressure is bought to bare at the margins on public spending like transport etc lets hope not.

 

[Horizon22]

Not many people who previously worked in central London have real jo- sorry jobs which can't be done from the comfort of their living room.

Felt a fair bit like pre-Covid at both 8am and 5pm today.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Heaving on the Victoria line today at full service levels around 1745 , and very busy (considerable standing on Thameslink North) from St Pancras - even on the stopping services. Some disruption - but even so .....

 

[KGX]

Thameslink on the Sutton loop into Blackfriars/Farringdon was extremely busy this morning, standing only and some people left on platforms around Herne Hill/Loughborough Junction.

Passengers would be left behind at Herne Hill & Loughborough Junction daily. You would have to force your way on. Certainly 8am-9am. Both of those stations had a more frequent peak service in 2019.

Not saying London is not busy, but it’s nothing like 2019 in my experience.

 

[DarloRich]

Which isn’t really surprising given Avanti’s inability to run anything like an acceptable service.

agreed - but it cant account, entirely, for the numbers that seem to now be changing at Tamworth

 

[Snow1964]

Some very busy trains in West Wiltshire to from Bath/Bristol but others are quiet. Feels like Tuesday-Thursday and Sunday are the busier days

Not 100% easy to judge due to the inconsistency of train lengths on trains via Westbury with 2car units mixed with 3, 4, 5car as preceeding and following trains, and same train varying in length almost daily.

 

[Robski_]

I have made a program to generate a graph for the peak average loading for every train for which this data is available for today. Here are the graphs generated.

Notes:

• The data comes from the Darwin Push Port (Powered by National Rail Enquiries), which in turn is supplied by data coming from the train operating companies.
• Not every train has this data available for it (which could explain why LO doesn't have any 100% data points).
• The data can be very wrong.
• Trendlines are a moving average - the period was worked out by either taking the number of data points and dividing it by 30, or 2, whichever is highest.
• The images are attached as thumbnails, click on them to see them in full.
• Trends vary by day of the week - all images are average loadings for a Tuesday

Thameslink

Spoiler: TL Graph

Great Northern

Spoiler: GN Graph

Southern

Spoiler: SN Graph

Gatwick Express

Spoiler: GX Graph

SouthEastern

Spoiler: SE Graph

London Overground

Spoiler: LO Graph

Chiltern Railways

Spoiler: CH Graph

Grand Central
(Not very useful, but included because it was there)

Spoiler: GC Graph