Potential up to 2,000 job losses at Alstom Derby

[DanNCL]

Nonsense, there is nothing wrong with either Electrostar or Aventra.

There’s plenty wrong with the Aventras.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Nonsense, there is nothing wrong with either Electrostar or Aventra.

Electrostars took a very long time to be certified electrically.
All Aventras have suffered from late/inadequate software and with many post-manufacture issues.
I also suspect none of the Aventra fleets are meeting the reliability levels required in their contracts, certainly not the EL fleet.

 

[Dan G]

How does that differ from any other train instruction? Bathtub curves etc etc.

The actual product is good.

 

[Invincible]

Electrostars took a very long time to be certified electrically.
All Aventras have suffered from late/inadequate software and with many post-manufacture issues.
I also suspect none of the Aventra fleets are meeting the reliability levels required in their contracts, certainly not the EL fleet.

Elizabeth line hits 100m journey milestone

Break-even expected in 2023/24

www.modernrailways.com

3rd February 2023

Stunning success: more than 100 million journeys have now been made on the Elizabeth Line. Reliability is also claimed to be good with an industry performance rating of 93% against an average elsewhere of 78.5%.

Are the current reliability rates online or only in the published magazine.
Outsourcing software on the 345s and 701 has not gone well, but getting there
The recent overhead power problems affected the Elizabeth line badly

 

[Nym]

What exactly is this “industry performance rating”…?

 

[Mikey C]

Considering Alstom/Metro Cammell in the late 90s, the 95 and 96 tube stock, and the Class 390 Pendolinos were decently reliable, while the Junipers/Coradias were a disaster which killed the factory and Alstom in the UK until they bought Bombardier, so sometimes it isn't just down to the assembly line.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Considering Alstom/Metro Cammell in the late 90s, the 95 and 96 tube stock, and the Class 390 Pendolinos were decently reliable, while the Junipers/Coradias were a disaster which killed the factory and Alstom in the UK until they bought Bombardier, so sometimes it isn't just down to the assembly line.

Don't know about the tube stock, but 390s were riddled with faults on delivery.
Junipers got their electrical certification before the Electrostars but then like Coradias had many build/design faults (and seemingly still do more than 2 decades on).
The benchmark for EMU reliability I understand was the Siemens Desiros, particularly the 350/2s on the WCML (the ones with no future home after being replaced by class 730 Aventras).

The Elizabeth Line reliability will be about cancellations I think, not about unit reliability.
The Modern Railways monthly list of new EMU reliability puts them well down the list, well below TfL's 710s and GA's 720s.
But Stadler's 777s on Merseyrail are at the bottom of the list.




New Item May 10:

The Alstom annual results say this about the Adessia platform:

https://www.alstom.com/sites/alstom.com/files/2024/05/07/20240508_PR_Alstom_FY_%202023_24_Annual_Results_EN.pdf

The replacement of Adessia™ commuter train has been launched to address the U.K. and USA markets. This new product range will include EMU, BMU, BEMU and HMU versions to also replace the existing Diesel trains

So the Adessia platform does not appear to be aimed at Europe.

The results document is mainly about Alstom's financials, revenue and orders position.
While the financial position is improving, they are still going to shareholders* for a €1 billion rights issue to tide them over lean times.
Nothing is said abut the position at Derby or the Aventra product travails.

There is a presentation version of the results here:

https://www.alstom.com/sites/alstom.com/files/2024/05/07/20240508_Alstom_FY_%202023_24_Annual_Results_Presentation_EN.pdf

It must be a challenge to pull together all the activities of a global business, which is in the process of restructuring itself, into one set of accounts.

* the largest shareholder at 17.2% is CDPQ of Quebec, a legacy of the Bombardier takeover.
The French government has a 5.4% interest via its investment arm BPI.

 

[Bornin1980s]

Are any of the shareholders british?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Are any of the shareholders british?

There's a list of the significant shareholders here (scroll down): https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ALSTOM-4607/company/
All French except the biggest - CDPQ of Canada.
GEC had a 50% share of the GEC-Alsthom transportation JV in the 1990s, but sold their share to concentrate on non-rail defence and USA business.
None of the other three UK-based train-builders has any British ownership, but of course all four employ significant numbers of staff.
Siemens and Hitachi both have major UK assets other than in rail.

 

[Invincible]

There's a list of the significant shareholders here (scroll down): https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ALSTOM-4607/company/
All French except the biggest - CDPQ of Canada.
GEC had a 50% share of the GEC-Alsthom transportation JV in the 1990s, but sold their share to concentrate on non-rail defence and USA business.

Before the mid 1990s GEC were doing well in the UK making steady profits from Engineering and other manufacturing including rail stock.
From Wikipedia, refering to https://www.london.edu/think/the-destruction-of-marconi
"(George) Simpson, along with finance director John Mayo, decided to pursue a risky strategy of pursuing fast growth via rapid acquisition of numerous other companies, particularly within the United States"
Then things went wrong for GEC/Marconi.

New Item May 10:

The Alstom annual results say this about the Adessia platform:

So the Adessia platform does not appear to be aimed at Europe.

Adessia commuter trains: The backbone of urban life

Alstom’s Adessia™ commuter transport solutions support urban ecosystems all over the world to grow sustainably, accommodate increasing numbers of commuters and alleviate traffic congestion. Building on its wealth of experience in delivering commuter train solutions, Alstom offers...

www.alstom.com

So Coradia Stream for Europe,
Adessia Max/Coach for US,
Adessia Stream (built in Derby?) for new UK bids?.

 

[Mikey C]

The London Underground 2009 and S stock were also built at Derby. To me the S stock is an excellent train, with from memory a reasonably smooth entry into service.

On a difference platform though, Movia, so without the problems of the more bespoke Electrostars and Aventras?

 

[Nym]

The majority of the workings of 09TS and S Stock are actually Electrostar electrically, with significant mechanical differences and updates to nomenclature to make it LUL compatible. (Words of the engineer who introduced them, not having worked significantly with an Electrostar I cannot substantiate this) The entry into service was relatively smooth, but I would point out that at the time, LUL (Metronet) was a very informed customer with a very strong engineering team, from my experience of ToCs and ROSCOs, this does not carry over to the 'big railway'.

 

[dgl]

I thought the S stock was quite problematic and units had to be sent back to Derby to have faults rectified.

 

[Nym]

S Stock was indeed quite challenging, including return to Derby. These were different teams within LUL unfortunately so more issues made it to London. S Stock did have a lot more mid production design changes as well, the S7 and S8 being actually quite different outside of the basic building blocks, the way they were put together was quite a bit "cheaper on materials" on the S7 than the S8. Can't comment on why, only did one small part of S Stock introduction which this showed up on.
There's a lot of other issues on the way in that I'm hearing on the engineering grapevine, but I try not to care about it as them fleets are no longer my problem.

 

[Snow1964]

So the Adessia platform does not appear to be aimed at Europe.

The results document is mainly about Alstom's financials, revenue and orders position.
While the financial position is improving, they are still going to shareholders* for a €1 billion rights issue to tide them over lean times.
Nothing is said abut the position at Derby or the Aventra product travails.

If you read other Alstom releases too it seems Adessia is different approach, same electrical and control, but different bodyshells depending on country.

If you think about it, whatever the bodyshell, going to be a cab at each end, couple of doors each side of each vehicle etc, most will have same bogies and motors etc.

My reading between the lines is Alstom have been stung on the orders inherited from Bombardier in 2 ways : Non standard (and unreliable) software; and shoddy build quality especially during covid staff reductions. So now they want one modular (plug and play) software with no variations even if some countries do not use features (and sounds like it will be a version of what worked on Coradia platform). Secondly they want much tighter build control, not having to do rectification afterwards. Quality control should be finding occasional minor things, not long lists of obviously sloppy build.

It looks like Alstom are developing sites like Poland, and proposing new locations eg Morocco, so is questionable if it needs Derby longer term. Even UK potential orders are looking thin after about 2031, with no obvious replacements needed by mid 2030s

 

[hwl]

If you read other Alstom releases too it seems Adessia is different approach, same electrical and control, but different bodyshells depending on country.

That was Bombardier approach with Aventra and Talent 3, nothing new as such the execution in two area as you note is severely lacking. The Alstom software approach is very modular.

If you think about it, whatever the bodyshell, going to be a cab at each end, couple of doors each side of each vehicle etc, most will have same bogies and motors etc.

My reading between the lines is Alstom have been stung on the orders inherited from Bombardier in 2 ways : Non standard (and unreliable) software; and shoddy build quality especially during covid staff reductions. So now they want one modular (plug and play) software with no variations even if some countries do not use features (and sounds like it will be a version of what worked on Coradia platform). Secondly they want much tighter build control, not having to do rectification afterwards. Quality control should be finding occasional minor things, not long lists of obviously sloppy build.

It looks like Alstom are developing sites like Poland, (

Already a massive Bombardier bodyshell plant for continental orders for decades

and proposing new locations eg Morocco,

Alstom have effectively had a monopoly in Morocco for generations, this helps maintain it and possibly help politically with other african orders.

so is questionable if it needs Derby longer term. Even UK potential orders are looking thin after about 2031, with no obvious replacements needed by mid 2030s

 

[Bornin1980s]

The majority of the workings of 09TS and S Stock are actually Electrostar electrically, with significant mechanical differences and updates to nomenclature to make it LUL compatible. (Words of the engineer who introduced them, not having worked significantly with an Electrostar I cannot substantiate this) The entry into service was relatively smooth, but I would point out that at the time, LUL (Metronet) was a very informed customer with a very strong engineering team, from my experience of ToCs and ROSCOs, this does not carry over to the 'big railway'.

So, the problem is not so much the manufacturer as the customer?

 

[Snow1964]

That's Treasury approval in principle, meaning DfT has authority to place an order for TfL (via a Rosco).
There will be Treasury conditions attached (eg perhaps reducing future forcast train orders by the same amount).
No government handout comes without strings, and it looks as though Alstom will have to commit to new investment at Derby as well as a special price for the 345s.
The letter mentions "right sizing" Derby, which is surely code for a reduced capacity compared to the recent full-blown Aventra production.
Placing Adessia design work at Derby could be challenging if it diverts work from other Alstom plants.
Harper is dangling £3.6 billion of train orders over the next couple of years - with no guarantee Derby will win them.
Also as has been pointed out, TfL itself will have increased costs of deploying the extra trains, which will also have to be found from somewhere.

So a month on, what exactly has happened, no announcement of any order, TfL how we are Governed meetings shows no TfL Board or Finance meeting until June (although chair can sign off urgent items). So not clear if Government or TfL or a Rosco is initially funding these. Or if simply didn't get to a price that was acceptabl so hasn't actually happened.

In meantime SouthEastern have gone public saying new train order is being negotiated with 5 companies, (although some might already be uncompetitive, so number has reduced behind the scenes). Being negociated is rather open timeline, could be wrapped up anything from tomorrow to a years time.

Northern have split their tender from 450 units to 3 lots with options, which suggests no one wanted to supply wide mix of types at a competitive price, but gave better deal on a stopgap of one type.

Meanwhile Hitachi seem not to be taking on orders at acceptable prices (even though open access operators need trains).

 

[RUK]

Meanwhile Hitachi seem not to be taking on orders at acceptable prices (even though open access operators need trains).

I guess OAOs could go for CAF like LNER have, or for Stadler like when they bid the SMILE for EMR but lost, unless small orders from Stadler are too expensive too.

 

[Trainbike46]

I guess OAOs could go for CAF like LNER have, or for Stadler like when they bid the SMILE for EMR but lost, unless small orders from Stadler are too expensive too.

stadler specialises in small and unusual trains - so especially for things where they already have a design that is suitable I doubt small orders are impossible; the question is whether Stadler will offer it for a price the OAOs are willing to pay - and that will depend on the alternatives as well

 

[Invincible]

BBC staff get new London-Manchester train service

Planned route will aid those travelling to the media outlet’s Salford office

www.telegraph.co.uk

First Luno will need new trains for Rochdale in 2027, probably Hitachi?.

 

[45076]

I drove past the place today it looks virtually empty now. just a few green 730 cars and the odd 720. It is so sad that many decades of railway rolling stock construction could come to an end