Student cases in other cities may be being counted at their parents address

[Yew]

Apparently some cases in London are due to students catching it at university, but universities in other cities.

Covid-19 figures in London appear to be skewed by including students at universities in other cities who have tested positive, the Standard reveals today.

The coronavirus rate has soared in Richmond to the highest in the capital, reaching 112.1 new cases per 100,000 people in the week to October 5. Cases have shot up to 222 from 89 in the previous week.


The jump has seen the borough overtake Redbridge which now has the second highest rate at 108.8, with the number of cases rising to 332, from 240.

However, an analysis of 412 positive cases in Richmond since September 20 found that out of 212 for which the council has postcodes, 49 of them were for places including Leeds, Exeter, Manchester and Durham.

They were nearly all in the 17-21 age group. The assumption is that these are London students whose cases have been recorded using their home addresses, possibly through details given of their GP.

London's coronavirus figures 'skewed by students in other cities'

Covid-19 figures in London appear to be skewed by including students at universities in other cities who have tested positive, the Standard reveals today.

www.standard.co.uk

I'd give it a 50/50 chance that these cases are being double-counted too, and students are contributing to figures both at their Uni, and at Home.

 

[py_megapixel]

I'd give it a 50/50 chance that these cases are being double-counted too, and students are contributing to figures both at their Uni, and at Home.

Have you just made this up, or do you have some kind of source for it?

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Have you just made this up, or do you have some kind of source for it?

Even if they aren't being double counted ( and my own gut feeling matches Yew's - there's a good chance they are ), this is still yet another monumental mess that makes the statistics on infection numbers completely unreliable.

 

[Domh245]

Whether they were double counted or not is going to be dependant on how they came to be mis-allocated in the first place. From the linked article:

They were nearly all in the 17-21 age group. The assumption is that these are London students whose cases have been recorded using their home addresses, possibly through details given of their GP.

Having (fortunately) never taken a test, I don't know the process and how the postcode(s) becomes associated with it. There's obviously a 'first stage' postcode when locating a test centre/having home test dispatched, but presumably this issue creeps in once a positive test is identified and track/trace becomes involved? I don't see how else the wrong postcode becomes associated unless the student starts putting different postcodes down throughout the whole thing (which is understandable given the sort of confusion of the first couple of weeks of university, but still)

 

[Yew]

Have you just made this up, or do you have some kind of source for it?

It's a personal view, based on the other problems that we've had with this system.

 

[Bantamzen]

It's a personal view, based on the other problems that we've had with this system.

And frankly a very valid view in my opinion, an opinion based on more than three decades working in the public sector.

 

[Yew]

Interesting to see that there has been no formal statement around this yet, given the dramatic effects that it could have to things like local lockdowns, surely it's important to get it right?

 

[hwl]

Interesting to see that there has been no formal statement around this yet, given the dramatic effects that it could have to things like local lockdowns, surely it's important to get it right?

Realistically the home addresses /postcodes would probably be making the situation in certain northern cities where it is already bad in term of case numbers and enough to justify lock down as is. If the numbers are worse it might quieten down certain complaining mayors.

My suspicion is that the wrong addresses probably come from an attempt by PHE /T&T to match GP records address and be "clever".

The is also the lesser possibility that new student accommodation hasn't been added to the full quality controlled PAF file* which most firms use, there are 2 other useful PAF files that are more draft basically "newly constructed" and "in construction / approved" which are rarely used (generally only by the more enlightened utilities (minority) and amazon) hence the student may have to enter their home postcode as the website may not accept their uni address (or have worked out what the difference is between the addres the uni has given them and the PAF address).

* The worst recent example of this being the builders / council of the new Shimmer estate in Mexborough not doing the paperwork with OS /Post Office and it getting HS2'd.