TfGM Tranche 3 speculation

[mangad]

’Crown jewels’ become irrelevant in a franchise environment. The authority confiscates your routes - good and bad. You bid a price to run them!

This is worth repeating. The fares do NOT go to the operator. they go to TfGM. A service like the 192 and the 42 is not going to be a prestigious route that's going to be an absolute cash cow for the operator. All the 192 will be to whoever runs it, is a service that needs lots of vehicles.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

A service like the 192 and the 42 is not going to be a prestigious route that's going to be an absolute cash cow for the operator.

Instead it will be an absolute cash cow for TfGM et al.

 

[mancbus]

This is worth repeating. The fares do NOT go to the operator. they go to TfGM. A service like the 192 and the 42 is not going to be a prestigious route that's going to be an absolute cash cow for the operator. All the 192 will be to whoever runs it, is a service that needs lots of vehicles.

Does this apply to the 43?

 

[Class 466]

I’d personally like to see First gain something else, it’s weird to think they’ve gone from being a massive to a tiny operator in Manchester from next month.

 

[Andyh82]

Personally, I’d go with

Stockport - Stagecoach - as they are on the way with introducing the electric fleet, it would be a shame for them to have it taken away at the 11th hour

Hyde Road - First - like others have said they surely need to get something substantial

Wythenshaw - Diamond
Tameside - Diamond or First
Sharlston - First or Stagecoach

Assuming no new entrants in Tranche 3 and assuming Arriva aren’t bidding

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Just thinking about the drivers and their company pension schemes. For example, a Stagecoach driver in recent years who stayed with the company would have one main pension scheme which would be easy to monitor, but under the Bee Network system, if that driver wanted to stay in the areas where he had full route knowledge but found that after a period of time, he would have to TUPE across to the new franchisee who took over the new franchise, would he have to see his old Stagecoach pension frozen and a new pension with the new franchisee by joined. Thinking more of the younger drivers, if they stayed in the industry until retirement, they could well expect to have a number of such pensions by the end of their working life, if they wanted to stay in their local area. Have Bee Network ever made comment on such matters that would occur on account of numerous franchise changes brought in by them?

Sharlston - First or Stagecoach

As far as I am aware. Sharlston is about four miles east of Wakefield...

 

[Leyland Bus]

Just thinking about the drivers and their company pension schemes. For example, a Stagecoach driver in recent years who stayed with the company would have one main pension scheme which would be easy to monitor, but under the Bee Network system, if that driver wanted to stay in the areas where he had full route knowledge but found that after a period of time, he would have to TUPE across to the new franchisee who took over the new franchise, would he have to see his old Stagecoach pension frozen and a new pension with the new franchisee by joined. Thinking more of the younger drivers, if they stayed in the industry until retirement, they could well expect to have a number of such pensions by the end of their working life, if they wanted to stay in their local area. Have Bee Network ever made comment on such matters that would occur on account of numerous franchise changes brought in by them?


As far as I am aware. Sharlston is about four miles east of Wakefield...

This is something we have brought up in tranche 1, remember engineering is in the same boat too... So far, we haven't had a response but we're still pushing it. It would be fat better to have a personal pension rather than keep having one frozen and changed every 5 year or it should be provision that the pension company doesn't change...

Also, I'm very surprised that you don't know about the Sharlston out station... A very niche tender that one

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

does this apply to the 43

I was wondering whether as well as the 42, the 42A, the 42B and the 42C were all thought of prestigious routes.

 

[mancbus]

I was wondering whether as well as the 42, the 42A, the 42B and the 42C were all thought of prestigious routes.

i think all buses on Wilmslow should be moved to sharston it would make a lot of sense

Personally, I’d go with

Stockport - Stagecoach - as they are on the way with introducing the electric fleet, it would be a shame for them to have it taken away at the 11th hour

Hyde Road - First - like others have said they surely need to get something substantial

Wythenshaw - Diamond
Tameside - Diamond or First
Sharlston - First or Stagecoach

Assuming no new entrants in Tranche 3 and assuming Arriva aren’t bidding

Stockport would run by Stagecoach. Wythenshaw and Ashton probably Diamond/First and Hyde Road and Sharston definitely First. They are both in Manchester and large depots so it wouldn't make sense if only one was run by the main company.

 

[Tim33160]

I was wondering whether as well as the 42, the 42A, the 42B and the 42C were all thought of prestigious routes.

Once the bus routes become Bee Network, then all cash goes to TfGM. The commercial contracting bus companies have a contract to supply specified standard buses on specified routes and frequencies at specified fares thus after tranche 3 goes live on 5 January 2025, all local buses in GM are run under the Bee Network.
Only those cross border services are outside the Bee Network but must have a permit to run in GM
NO commercial bus routes will be able to operate in GM - ie back to regulated PTE days

 

[507021]

Personally, I’d go with

Stockport - Stagecoach - as they are on the way with introducing the electric fleet, it would be a shame for them to have it taken away at the 11th hour

Hyde Road - First - like others have said they surely need to get something substantial

Wythenshaw - Diamond
Tameside - Diamond or First
Sharlston - First or Stagecoach

Assuming no new entrants in Tranche 3 and assuming Arriva aren’t bidding

A friend who works for Arriva told me a little while ago there are no plans for them to bid for any franchises in Greater Manchester.

 

[Simon75]

A friend who works for Arriva told me a little while ago there are no plans for them to bid for any franchises in Greater Manchester.

Wonder why they won't bid in Manchester, but run in London?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Stagecoach is getting the 17, 59, 83 ,135 and 163? which must be at least on a par some of the busy southern routes like the 43 and 143 etc

I don't think Stagecoach can really complain at losing their old work when all the best stuff is now theirs in the north too. As others have said I can see First basically swapping to the south just a switcheroo of the old status quo really.

What about the 192, which is the most popular route in Manchester? I think Stagecoach will lose Hyde Road and Sharston and either Ashton/Stockport, just like in the north First and Go North West lost lots of routes like 17, 18, 135, 83, 409 etc. They are now run by Stagecoach, so i think routes like 43, 142, 143, 250, 192, 219 would be run first since Stagecoach taking their popular routes.

Stockport would run by Stagecoach. Wythenshaw and Ashton probably Diamond/First and Hyde Road and Sharston definitely First. They are both in Manchester and large depots so it wouldn't make sense if only one was run by the main company.

I know it's been said by other posters but I think some folks aren't really getting what franchising means.

The commercial services are going from being the possessions of the current operators, like Stagecoach, and will instead be the possession of Transport for Greater Manchester. They then tender the franchises and they are awarded on the basis of a quality element (that is evaluated and scored accordingly to what TfGM are asking for) and a commercial element - i.e. the total price (cost plus operators margin).

There is no guarantee that Stagecoach will win anything, nor First, nor Diamond. Will First be so determined to win a large franchise? Will someone like Transport UK or Mobico be keen to win something having missed out so far? We don't know but what we DO know is that this is a public procurement exercise so an operator like First won't be given a franchise simply because they lost out elsewhere.

Wonder why they won't bid in Manchester, but run in London?

Because Arriva has been tied up in being sold by DB, and there's been a restriction on capital expenditure on new vehicles. They have enough problems funding new vehicles on existing operations so they decided not to bid on Manchester (or at least, that was what was the prevailing view from some of my industry contacts)

 

[neilcobbe]

Wonder why they won't bid in Manchester, but run in London?

Putting all their eggs in a Merseyside basket? Our turn next if all goes to plan....

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Because Arriva has been tied up in being sold by DB, and there's been a restriction on capital expenditure on new vehicles. They have enough problems funding new vehicles on existing operations so they decided not to bid on Manchester (or at least, that was what was the prevailing view from some of my industry contacts)

Glad to see someone recognising "the big picture"

 

[mancbus]

I know it's been said by other posters but I think some folks aren't really getting what franchising means.

The commercial services are going from being the possessions of the current operators, like Stagecoach, and will instead be the possession of Transport for Greater Manchester. They then tender the franchises and they are awarded on the basis of a quality element (that is evaluated and scored accordingly to what TfGM are asking for) and a commercial element - i.e. the total price (cost plus operators margin).

There is no guarantee that Stagecoach will win anything, nor First, nor Diamond. Will First be so determined to win a large franchise? Will someone like Transport UK or Mobico be keen to win something having missed out so far? We don't know but what we DO know is that this is a public procurement exercise so an operator like First won't be given a franchise simply because they lost out elsewhere.


Because Arriva has been tied up in being sold by DB, and there's been a restriction on capital expenditure on new vehicles. They have enough problems funding new vehicles on existing operations so they decided not to bid on Manchester (or at least, that was what was the prevailing view from some of my industry contacts)

So who do you think is going to win because the companies like Transport UK or Mobico don’t run In Manchester? Since Go North West and Stagecoach won both main rounds it’s going to be a small company like First/Rosso that might be the winner since Diamond have won two awards and GNW/Diamond/Stagecoach might be small ones.

 

[GusB]

So who do you think is going to win because the companies like Transport UK or Mobico don’t run In Manchester? Since Go North West and Stagecoach won both main rounds it’s going to be a small company like First/Rosso that might be the winner since Diamond have won two awards and GNW/Diamond/Stagecoach might be small ones.

Anyone can bid for a franchise. It's neither here nor there if they haven't operated in Manchester before.

 

[mangad]

So who do you think is going to win because the companies like transport uk or Mobico don’t run In Manchester and since GNW and Stagecoach won both main rounds it’s going to be a small company like first/rosso that might be the winner since diamond have won two rewards and GNW/Diamond/Stagecoach might be small ones

Transport UK and Mobico don't currently run in Greater Manchester. That's not to say they couldn't run in Greater Manchester if they put a winning bid in. If they got a large franchise, they'd inherit staff, facilities and more.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

So who do you think is going to win because the companies like transport uk or Mobico don’t run In Manchester and since GNW and Stagecoach won both main rounds it’s going to be a small company like first/rosso that might be the winner since diamond have won two rewards and GNW/Diamond/Stagecoach might be small ones

The idea of the franchise was that you didn't need to be currently in Manchester. The depot is provided to the winner, and potentially most of the fleet, and the drivers have the ability to transfer under TUPE.

I don't know who will win (and really no-one knows). Past performance on tenders is no guarantee to anyone as we have already seen. Go Ahead were the big winner on Tranche 1 whilst Stagecoach were the loser. Roles reversed on Tranche 2.

Therefore, if you think someone MUST with in Tranche 3 because they lost out in Tranche 1 or 2.... no, it doesn't work like that.

 

[Andyh82]

Have TfGM set a limit on how many franchises one operator could win, like I believe there is in London

Or could Stagecoach in theory win all their current operations on top of all the ones they’ve won in Tranche 2

 

[Simon75]

Could RATP or ComfortDelgro be interested as well?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Could RATP or ComfortDelgro be interested as well?

Theoretically yes

 

[Mollman]

Could RATP or ComfortDelgro be interested as well?

Just remember they have to have applied for a 'passport' to bid.

 

[Tim33160]

Abellio at one point established an office in Manchester - later transferred to Liverpool
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/12667403

Registered office address changed from 49 Piccadilly Manchester M1 2AP United Kingdom to Rail House Lord Nelson Street Liverpool Merseyside L1 1JF on 25 August 2022

So looks like they are looking at Merseyside for their franchising??

 

[baza585]

I know it's been said by other posters but I think some folks aren't really getting what franchising means.

The commercial services are going from being the possessions of the current operators, like Stagecoach, and will instead be the possession of Transport for Greater Manchester. They then tender the franchises and they are awarded on the basis of a quality element (that is evaluated and scored accordingly to what TfGM are asking for) and a commercial element - i.e. the total price (cost plus operators margin).

There is no guarantee that Stagecoach will win anything, nor First, nor Diamond. Will First be so determined to win a large franchise? Will someone like Transport UK or Mobico be keen to win something having missed out so far? We don't know but what we DO know is that this is a public procurement exercise so an operator like First won't be given a franchise simply because they lost out elsewhere.


Because Arriva has been tied up in being sold by DB, and there's been a restriction on capital expenditure on new vehicles. They have enough problems funding new vehicles on existing operations so they decided not to bid on Manchester (or at least, that was what was the prevailing view from some of my industry contacts)

Good post. Spot on.

My surprise in all this is that incumbent operators haven't done better so far. To my simple mind they will have many fewer unknown unknowns than other operators.

For example if Stagecoach lose Hyde Rd, the incoming operator may not get as many staff TUPEing across than they anticipated because the staff may prefer to transfer to another Stagecoach garage rather than work for someone else, particularly if they are long serving.

It's going to be interesting; has TfGM set formal or informal market share ceilings I wonder? They've certainly made an effort to attract smaller operators.

 

[jeffery9098]

It would be interesting to see if Abellio will enter the bid for Tranche 3...

 

[StagecoachBus1]

Based on what I've heard (and my own speculation) I would predict that Hyde Rd will stay with Stagecoach. Hyde Road depot is very close to Piccadilly, which Stagecoach will be keen to keep. With regards to Ashton, I would also imagine Stagecoach to keep. Sharston and Wythenshawe, however, I predict First to bid for. It would be logical for them to take over the whole Wythenshawe and Airport area, giving them a large area again in Manchester. Stockport is an interesting one. Possibly Go-Ahead, but another operator who isn't currently operating in Manchester could fancy their chances?

 

[GCH100]

It would be interesting to see if Abellio will enter the bid for Tranche 3...

Abellio have already said in Coach & Bus Week, a while ago, that they are no longer interested in Greater Manchester franchising, as there is something they do not like about it, for which the article doesn't specify. I also doubt that based on previous franchises, that the major operator work would be broken into small pieces. I would think no more than two splits in it, and it may go with one operator gaining all the major operator work in the South as based on the West and North franchises.

 

[Leyland Bus]

Abellio have already said in Coach & Bus Week, a while ago, that they are no longer interested in Greater Manchester franchising, as there is something they do not like about it, for which the article doesn't specify.

The bond...

 

[py_megapixel]

I’d personally like to see First gain something else, it’s weird to think they’ve gone from being a massive to a tiny operator in Manchester from next month.

As someone subjected to their diabolical excuse for a bus network (admittedly not in Manchester but in south Yorkshire, though I am led to believe they are rather similar in Manchester), I'd prefer to see them wiped out entirely so that their work could be turned over to a company that actually takes some pride in providing a decent service. But I suppose that's beside the point.